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Cam Newton 2017 Season Outlook


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On 3/22/2017 at 4:02 PM, mrblonde1984 said:

I'll probably get crap for this, but I don't like the loss of Ted Ginn. Say what you want about Ginn, but he made plays in Carolina and had good deep ball chemistry with Cam. Who do they have to take the top off the defense now? Olsen wasn't as good last season, and after a monster Week 1 KB turned in a crap season. I do like Funchess, so there's still hope, but the lack of weapons is a bit of a concern to me.

 

That said, if Cam can make up for some of that with his rushing, he should be ok. I was all over him 2 years ago at his price (10th round plus in most leagues) and considered him a DND at his ADP last summer. 

 

The biggest thing I'll need to see is if Cam goes before the likes of Winston and Mariota, because if he does, I'll probably just wait and try to snag one of those two (or TyGod if they aren't there).

I'm glad Ginn is g*o*n*e. A speedy open guy does no good if he can't catch the ball first. He was the leading WR in CAR for 2 years because KB was injured and Funchess was a rookie. 

 

I'm not reaching for Cam this season like I usually do, but I think he will have a much better season 2017 than last season.

 

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1 minute ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I'm glad Ginn is g*o*n*e. A speedy open guy does no good if he can't catch the ball first. He was the leading WR in CAR for 2 years because KB was injured and Funchess was a rookie. 

 

I'm not reaching for Cam this season like I usually do, but I think he will have a much better season 2017 than last season.

 

 

I'll take Cam in the 6th if he's there. The Panthers have one of the easiest schedules on paper this year, so I expect a big bounce back from this team overall.

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6 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I'm glad Ginn is g*o*n*e. A speedy open guy does no good if he can't catch the ball first. He was the leading WR in CAR for 2 years because KB was injured and Funchess was a rookie. 

 

I'm not reaching for Cam this season like I usually do, but I think he will have a much better season 2017 than last season.

 

 

Welcome back!

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14 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

It may be just coachspeak, but if Cam isn't going to be running as much this year, I won't have much interest in him this year.

 

Running leads to injuries and getting "CamShafted".

 

If you draft Cam, there's your team name.

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Cam cant keep taking hits the way he did last season , they have to protect him as their signal caller and best player, so i anticipate significantly less plays that involve him running the ball.  maybe mcaffery addition helps him with take fewer hits those quick short passes/slants  they need in their game

Edited by dashoe
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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

Cam cant keep taking hits the way he did last season , they have to protect him as their signal caller and best player, so i anticipate significantly less plays that involve him running the ball.  maybe mcaffery addition helps him with take fewer hits those quick short passes/slants  they need in their game

 

 

He needs to learn to be a pocket passer to prevent the injuries.  When he does that, he's no longer running in 10 TDs.  Those go to the RB.

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  • 1 month later...

The newly acquired weapons and successful surgery should land Cam into the top 10 this season. 

I'm not surprised that Killa Cam is ahead of schedule. 

 

Source: ESPN.com - David Newton

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (shoulder) is ahead of schedule with his rehab and expected to throw on the side during Carolina's three-day minicamp next week, according to head coach Ron Rivera. Newton will work directly with trainer Ryan Vermillion, and it is unknown how much he will throw.

 

Edited by TX Babe Ruth
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On 4/28/2017 at 3:31 PM, jmausen said:

 

 

He needs to learn to be a pocket passer to prevent the injuries.  When he does that, he's no longer running in 10 TDs.  Those go to the RB.

 

 

My question is with his shortened offseason due to surgery and recovery how realistic is it to expect he can convert to a pocket passer?  I would imagine it takes a full offseason of training and throwing with specialists to build the skills and muscle memory needed to transition from his normal processes. You can't just flip a switch and become a pocket passer when u never have been one

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42 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

My question is with his shortened offseason due to surgery and recovery how realistic is it to expect he can convert to a pocket passer?  I would imagine it takes a full offseason of training and throwing with specialists to build the skills and muscle memory needed to transition from his normal processes. You can't just flip a switch and become a pocket passer when u never have been one

The season(2015 MVP) he was transitioning more into a pocket passer. He was still running the ball, but not as much as previous seasons.

In 3/6 seasons, he threw for almost 4,000 yds. Rookie season, he passed 4,000yds.

If you're expecting Cam to be a pocket passer like Brady, that will never happen because he has a different skill set than Brady. They are two totally different QBs. Cam is dual threat QB.

Cam's best WR for 3 seasons was Ted Ginn Jr and an aging Steve Smith (who Cam rejuvenated his career in his rookie season). Let the name Ted Ginn Jr sink in as your #1WR..

 

 

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16 hours ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

The season(2015 MVP) he was transitioning more into a pocket passer. He was still running the ball, but not as much as previous seasons.

In 3/6 seasons, he threw for almost 4,000 yds. Rookie season, he passed 4,000yds.

If you're expecting Cam to be a pocket passer like Brady, that will never happen because he has a different skill set than Brady. They are two totally different QBs. Cam is dual threat QB.

Cam's best WR for 3 seasons was Ted Ginn Jr and an aging Steve Smith (who Cam rejuvenated his career in his rookie season). Let the name Ted Ginn Jr sink in as your #1WR..

 

 

 

Both Steve Smith and Brandon Lafell's numbers went up the next season after they left Carolina. I like to call it "Getting away from Cam" No one should apologize for Cam's receivers. 

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18 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Both Steve Smith and Brandon Lafell's numbers went up the next season after they left Carolina. I like to call it "Getting away from Cam" No one should apologize for Cam's receivers. 

 

Brandon LaFell's numbers also went up the next season after he left NE for CIN.  Do you call that "Getting away from Tom Brady"?

 

Cam helped Steve Smith to 79/1394/ which was the 2nd best fantasy season he ever had in his life, at the age of 32.   His only season better was in 2005, back when he was 26 years old.  Cam also helped him to 73/1179/4 the year after at age 33.  Yes, his final year with Carolina was rather poor, but even his best year with BAL was only 79/1065/6.

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People hate Super Bowl participant QB Cam Newton for their own personal reasons - which are universal among their brethren. I mean, Andrew Luck is considered a good (even top) QB in both fantasy and real-life circles...and he has the exact same 3-3 NFL playoff record that Cam Newton has.

 

Oh well...its Earth, the USA and Rotoworld! :)

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4 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Brandon LaFell's numbers also went up the next season after he left NE for CIN.  Do you call that "Getting away from Tom Brady"?

 

Cam helped Steve Smith to 79/1394/ which was the 2nd best fantasy season he ever had in his life, at the age of 32.   His only season better was in 2005, back when he was 26 years old.  Cam also helped him to 73/1179/4 the year after at age 33.  Yes, his final year with Carolina was rather poor, but even his best year with BAL was only 79/1065/6.

And Steve smith had a whole 554 yards and two touchdowns the year before Cam was drafted. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Source: Panthers.com - Bill Voth

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (shoulder) began light throwing Monday, June 26, for the first time since offseason shoulder surgery. He threw 45 passes to athletic trainer Ryan Vermillion. 'Obviously, it's still not 100 percent, but seeing the ball come out of my hand in a throwing motion was good. When I say it's not 100 percent, I'm noting the range of motion part,' Newton said. 'Like if you sleep with your legs hanging off your bed the whole night, you're going to wake up and be super stiff. Or like sitting on your hands, or sitting in an awkward position and finally getting up and moving - that's how I feel.'

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  • 3 weeks later...

So what do you guys make of Rivera stating that he wants Cam to run less? If you take away Cam's rushing, he is a pretty average QB. If he comes out and plays the same way he always has, he should be tremendous value. At this point, especially considering the new passing game weapons, I'm buying the statements by Rivera and Cam is approaching DND territory for me. 

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1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

So what do you guys make of Rivera stating that he wants Cam to run less? If you take away Cam's rushing, he is a pretty average QB. If he comes out and plays the same way he always has, he should be tremendous value. At this point, especially considering the new passing game weapons, I'm buying the statements by Rivera and Cam is approaching DND territory for me. 

 

It's all well and good, but when the fur starts to fly and they are in need of a play, they are going to do what it takes to win. I think an emphasis on getting the ball out quicker will do wonders for Cam's health, as he'll get hit less, and they have two new toys in McCaffrey and Samuel that can help with that.

 

In other words, I'll believe he runs less when I see it. He's still a weapon down at the goal line.

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5 hours ago, FinsUp24 said:

So what do you guys make of Rivera stating that he wants Cam to run less?

 

Out of curiosity I did some quick math checks:

If I cut Cam's rushing yardage in half every single year, without adjusting for the required increase in passing yardage to go the same distance down the field we get:

Points/PPG & Rank:

2011: 344/21.5 5th/5th

2012: 297/18.6 7th/7th

2013: 281/17.5 7th/10th

2014: 232/16.5 17th/17th

 

15 was an outlier on the high side, 16 on the low, so I excluded them.

 

Using all 6 years for a career average we get: (Not extrapolated for 3 missed games, #Lazy)

285/488/3629/22/13/114/594/8/324/20.8 (Cmp/Att/Yds/TD/INT/Att/Yds/TD/Pts/PPG)

So, his career average is 324 fantasy points, and 20.8 PPG.

Last year (albeit a down year for QBs) that would have placed him 4th overall and 5th in PPG.

Again, cutting his rushing yardage in half, we drop down to 295 fantasy points, and 18.4 PPG.

Last year (albeit a down year for QBs) that would have placed him 6th overall and 9th in PPG.

 

Glancing at 2015, just to eliminate the 'down' QB year...

Using the 50% rushing rate of 295/18.4 we're looking at:

11th overall and 16th in PPG.

 

Currently drafted as the 8th QB off the board (and falling) you're looking at a low end QB1 if you assume his rushing yardage gets chopped in half.

 

Technically, that's with a 3 game disadvantage in his totals, AND keep in mind, I didn't alter any passing yardage to account for the lack of rushing.  Meaning if we're removing 300 rushing yards from him, logistically the offense is still moving those yards, and you would calculate them into passing yardage.  12 more points for Cam if 100% went to passing, another .75PPG, which seems small, but isn't.  18.4+.7= 19.1.  That PPG rate would jump him from 9th in PPG last year to 7th, and from 16th in '15 to 10th.

 

Just some quick calculations to potentially help quantify a loss of rushing effecting his fantasy scoring.  Maybe without Ginn dropping every other ball, or the dynamic duo of Benjamin/Funchess showing up more often than one game a year, or J.Stew staying on the field for the first time in 6 years, Cam wouldn't have to do everything himself.  Maybe McCaff and Samuel can help, time will tell.

 

As much as I like Cam, I see nearly no value in his ADP, with multiple names behind him likely to match or exceed his performance, barring a '15 repeat, or rookie offensive insurgence.  I won't rule out either, but I also won't bet on them in the 8th round.

 

Ultimately, I believe in less designed runs, sure, but Cam is still going to take off with the ball if a play breaks down, or calls for it.  And he's one of the best QBs in the game in regards to running with the football.  Between the 20's, I get it, but I doubt they remove his redzone/goal line runs, which are the ones we care about most.

 

*All Figures are based on Yahoo Default Scoring 25:1 4pt TD

Edited by FFCollusion
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10 hours ago, FinsUp24 said:

So what do you guys make of Rivera stating that he wants Cam to run less? If you take away Cam's rushing, he is a pretty average QB. If he comes out and plays the same way he always has, he should be tremendous value. At this point, especially considering the new passing game weapons, I'm buying the statements by Rivera and Cam is approaching DND territory for me. 

 

 

I'm going to rank riveras statements right up there with mcarthys  annual "we are going to run the ball more" statements.

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Cam is the one QB that can get you avg QB1 or #1 fantasy QB performance. No QB has a higher ceiling than he does; it's the weekly floor u worry about.

If the run less pass more forecasted version of Cam = more deep balls and passing td's to kelvin and funches then i'm in if it's going to be dinks and dinks to mcaff and samu with jstew taking over goal line then I pass on him

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19 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Out of curiosity I did some quick math checks:

If I cut Cam's rushing yardage in half every single year, without adjusting for the required increase in passing yardage to go the same distance down the field we get:

Points/PPG & Rank:

2011: 344/21.5 5th/5th

2012: 297/18.6 7th/7th

2013: 281/17.5 7th/10th

2014: 232/16.5 17th/17th

 

15 was an outlier on the high side, 16 on the low, so I excluded them.

 

Using all 6 years for a career average we get: (Not extrapolated for 3 missed games, #Lazy)

285/488/3629/22/13/114/594/8/324/20.8 (Cmp/Att/Yds/TD/INT/Att/Yds/TD/Pts/PPG)

So, his career average is 324 fantasy points, and 20.8 PPG.

Last year (albeit a down year for QBs) that would have placed him 4th overall and 5th in PPG.

Again, cutting his rushing yardage in half, we drop down to 295 fantasy points, and 18.4 PPG.

Last year (albeit a down year for QBs) that would have placed him 6th overall and 9th in PPG.

 

Glancing at 2015, just to eliminate the 'down' QB year...

Using the 50% rushing rate of 295/18.4 we're looking at:

11th overall and 16th in PPG.

 

Currently drafted as the 8th QB off the board (and falling) you're looking at a low end QB1 if you assume his rushing yardage gets chopped in half.

 

Technically, that's with a 3 game disadvantage in his totals, AND keep in mind, I didn't alter any passing yardage to account for the lack of rushing.  Meaning if we're removing 300 rushing yards from him, logistically the offense is still moving those yards, and you would calculate them into passing yardage.  12 more points for Cam if 100% went to passing, another .75PPG, which seems small, but isn't.  18.4+.7= 19.1.  That PPG rate would jump him from 9th in PPG last year to 7th, and from 16th in '15 to 10th.

 

Just some quick calculations to potentially help quantify a loss of rushing effecting his fantasy scoring.  Maybe without Ginn dropping every other ball, or the dynamic duo of Benjamin/Funchess showing up more often than one game a year, or J.Stew staying on the field for the first time in 6 years, Cam wouldn't have to do everything himself.  Maybe McCaff and Samuel can help, time will tell.

 

As much as I like Cam, I see nearly no value in his ADP, with multiple names behind him likely to match or exceed his performance, barring a '15 repeat, or rookie offensive insurgence.  I won't rule out either, but I also won't bet on them in the 8th round.

 

Ultimately, I believe in less designed runs, sure, but Cam is still going to take off with the ball if a play breaks down, or calls for it.  And he's one of the best QBs in the game in regards to running with the football.  Between the 20's, I get it, but I doubt they remove his redzone/goal line runs, which are the ones we care about most.

 

*All Figures are based on Yahoo Default Scoring 25:1 4pt TD

 

Great post. To me, if Cam's rushing is going to take a major hit this year, I'd rather have Mariota a few rounds later. He will probably provide the same rushing numbers and he is a better and more efficient passer. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I saw an interview with Cam the other day where he basically said that running the ball has been his advantage as a QB his whole career and he will continue to do it. Pretty much what we expected but still good to hear him say it. I think we can feel pretty confident that Cam will still take off out of the pocket, but there will just be less designed runs

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On 6/7/2017 at 1:35 AM, FFCollusion said:

 

Brandon LaFell's numbers also went up the next season after he left NE for CIN.  Do you call that "Getting away from Tom Brady"?

 

Cam helped Steve Smith to 79/1394/ which was the 2nd best fantasy season he ever had in his life, at the age of 32.   His only season better was in 2005, back when he was 26 years old.  Cam also helped him to 73/1179/4 the year after at age 33.  Yes, his final year with Carolina was rather poor, but even his best year with BAL was only 79/1065/6.

So much this

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