Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Cam Newton 2017 Season Outlook


Recommended Posts

On 6/7/2017 at 1:40 AM, dabeesta17 said:

People hate Super Bowl participant QB Cam Newton for their own personal reasons - which are universal among their brethren. I mean, Andrew Luck is considered a good (even top) QB in both fantasy and real-life circles...and he has the exact same 3-3 NFL playoff record that Cam Newton has.

 

Oh well...its Earth, the USA and Rotoworld! :)

Well that's because Andrew Luck is the most overrated QB in the NFL.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 587
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

He may have come back too soon. Let him go through the motions in camp and have him ready for week 1.

I don't expect to see him in the preseason games.

 

Source: Panthers.com - Max Henson

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (shoulder) sat out practice Tuesday, August 1, after reporting soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, austinrbreeden said:

Lol I'm betting he'll show up all the doubters like most of you, along with Russell Wilson and be the top 2 QB's in the league, mark my words.

I hope so....I'm ready for another 2015 season.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I'm sure some of you guys will grab him late and probably get good value out of him, but after owning him last year, he's pretty much DND for me. That was a 4-month long headache.

 

Yeah I totally feel you on this. He's not to a DND level for me, but it will be tough to overcome the flashbacks of all the pain he inflicted on me last year to press that "draft" button. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

Yeah I totally feel you on this. He's not to a DND level for me, but it will be tough to overcome the flashbacks of all the pain he inflicted on me last year to press that "draft" button. 

 

That's the best time to draft him...when a perennial top-5 FFL QB is coming off his worst season, is being doubted by everyone, and is highly motivated. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I'm sure some of you guys will grab him late and probably get good value out of him, but after owning him last year, he's pretty much DND for me. That was a 4-month long headache.

 

59 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

Yeah I totally feel you on this. He's not to a DND level for me, but it will be tough to overcome the flashbacks of all the pain he inflicted on me last year to press that "draft" button. 

 

Arguably the best example of recency bias I've ever seen on these forums.

 

"I overpaid after a career high, now he's DND after a career low."

 

You're both admitting you let his 2015 performance dictate your 2016 investment.

Instead of learning from it, you're now claiming you're going to let his 2016 performance dictate your 2017 investment.

As @joshua18 said, you guys are doing it backwards.  Look at the bigger picture.

 

His ADP is now down 6 spots among QBs, to the 12th off the board, going at the end of the 9th round in 12 team PPR leagues.  I still prefer him to Ryan, Carr, Wilson, Big Ben, Winston, and Mariota who are all going ahead of him, but with Eli, Tyrod, and Stafford going after him, he's at a really odd ADP for me in the bigger picture. *4pt Passing leagues*

 

cam-newton-4e5426c7-1c62-45a7-bc47-4da45

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

Arguably the best example of recency bias I've ever seen on these forums.

 

"I overpaid after a career high, now he's DND after a career low."

 

You're both admitting you let his 2015 performance dictate your 2016 investment.

Instead of learning from it, you're now claiming you're going to let his 2016 performance dictate your 2017 investment.

As @joshua18 said, you guys are doing it backwards.  Look at the bigger picture.

 

His ADP is now down 6 spots among QBs, to the 12th off the board, going at the end of the 9th round in 12 team PPR leagues.  I still prefer him to Ryan, Carr, Wilson, Big Ben, Winston, and Mariota who are all going ahead of him, but with Eli, Tyrod, and Stafford going after him, he's at a really odd ADP for me in the bigger picture. *4pt Passing leagues*

 

cam-newton-4e5426c7-1c62-45a7-bc47-4da45

 

I just know that I watched a lot of Carolina's games last year, and the offense was an absolute mess, and I don't see them as having improved significantly enough to warrant confidence that he'll produce with the consistency that I want in a QB1. Unless he drops incredibly low, I'll be on hold this year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I just know that I watched a lot of Carolina's games last year, and the offense was an absolute mess, and I don't see them as having improved significantly enough to warrant confidence that he'll produce with the consistency that I want in a QB1. Unless he drops incredibly low, I'll be on hold this year.

Are you sure you watched a lot of Carolina's games last season? Because, it was not so much the offense a mess as it was the defense. The lackadaisical defense affected the offense. Kuechly was out almost half the season from a concussion. The general manager(Gettlemen) Mr. Know-it-all let Josh Norman walk. Gettleman is gone now and rightfully so, he had no loyalty to any of the players and was a cancer to the organization. He wanted Rivera fired and tried his best to get him out; instead, he was given the boot. 

I expect a bounce back because Cam is getting healthier and the latest additions to the offense is an advantage. I'm not too happy about the Oline but it is what it is...

Gettlemen is gone and contracts can get done and guys could be more motivated to play(harder). 

 

Cam has been going really low in drafts...I got him in the 6th round in one league, and in another league, I got him in the 8th. I play in 2QB leagues. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Are you sure you watched a lot of Carolina's games last season? Because, it was not so much the offense a mess as it was the defense. The lackadaisical defense affected the offense. Kuechly was out almost half the season from a concussion. The general manager(Gettlemen) Mr. Know-it-all let Josh Norman walk. Gettleman is gone now and rightfully so, he had no loyalty to any of the players and was a cancer to the organization. He wanted Rivera fired and tried his best to get him out; instead, he was given the boot. 

I expect a bounce back because Cam is getting healthier and the latest additions to the offense is an advantage. I'm not too happy about the Oline but it is what it is...

Gettlemen is gone and contracts can get done and guys could be more motivated to play(harder). 

 

Cam has been going really low in drafts...I got him in the 6th round in one league, and in another league, I got him in the 8th. I play in 2QB leagues. 

 

 

QB2 is fine. I'm in a one QB league, but I would consider him in the 8th as a backup/trade bait. The Oline just seemed to be a major issue last year, and I generally want stability up front of my QB1 and RB1. In general, I put good amount of stock into the overall team situation for my starters.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

Arguably the best example of recency bias I've ever seen on these forums.

 

"I overpaid after a career high, now he's DND after a career low."

 

You're both admitting you let his 2015 performance dictate your 2016 investment.

Instead of learning from it, you're now claiming you're going to let his 2016 performance dictate your 2017 investment.

As @joshua18 said, you guys are doing it backwards.  Look at the bigger picture.

 

His ADP is now down 6 spots among QBs, to the 12th off the board, going at the end of the 9th round in 12 team PPR leagues.  I still prefer him to Ryan, Carr, Wilson, Big Ben, Winston, and Mariota who are all going ahead of him, but with Eli, Tyrod, and Stafford going after him, he's at a really odd ADP for me in the bigger picture. *4pt Passing leagues*

 

cam-newton-4e5426c7-1c62-45a7-bc47-4da45

 

 

I don't think this is your typical case of recency bias though. There is a possibility that Cam's entire style of play could be changed this season. If there was no talk of taking away his running opportunities and we were just talking about a down season, I'd still be all over him. I'm not sure if we can look at his career rushing numbers as a reliable indicator that a regression to the mean is in order. Cam has made a living from rushing. After his concussion last season he had 7 games where he rushed for 16 yards or less. 3,500 yards passing and 20 TDs doesn't get me all that excited. 

Edited by FinsUp24
Link to post
Share on other sites

Last year Newton was one of the most obvious DND candidates in the league. He was going top 30 and even top 20 despite literally everything pointing to the fact that his season was a huge outlier. 

 

However, his ADP this year is more in line and he is a nice value. He is going around 90 and that is borderline steal range. Remember, he was flirting with top 5 QB numbers his entire career.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm interested in Cam this year if at a deep discount.  But so far I've not seen that deep discount.  MFL10s ADP has him at 73.81 (beginning of the 7th round) as the QB10 selected:

7.  Carr

8.  Winston

9.  Mariota

10. Newton

11. Cousins

12.  Prescott

13.  Big Ben

 

I'm seeing data above that shows Newton falling another round and a half which would make him more interesting to me.  I see more upside with Cam than with Winston, Cousins, Dak, Mariota.  

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

I'm interested in Cam this year if at a deep discount.  But so far I've not seen that deep discount.  MFL10s ADP has him at 73.81 (beginning of the 7th round) as the QB10 selected:

7.  Carr

8.  Winston

9.  Mariota

10. Newton

11. Cousins

12.  Prescott

13.  Big Ben

 

I'm seeing data above that shows Newton falling another round and a half which would make him more interesting to me.  I see more upside with Cam than with Winston, Cousins, Dak, Mariota.  

 

I agree with you but I got Cam and Cousins neck to neck and it's difficult to choose. If Cam was healthy, it would be easier. 

I don't see Carr ahead of Cam, Mariota, or Cousins. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

That's the best time to draft him...when a perennial top-5 FFL QB is coming off his worst season, is being doubted by everyone, and is highly motivated. 

Do you have Zero concern about his shoulder?

Link to post
Share on other sites

He's all good!!! Killa Cam is backkkk...

 

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (shoulder) appears to be 'over the hump' in his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Newton is feeling better and is expected to practice soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

That's the best time to draft him...when a perennial top-5 FFL QB is coming off his worst season, is being doubted by everyone, and is highly motivated. 

 

I agree with this.

 

His career so far seems to be an up season, then a down season.  I think last season is easily his worst season as a pro so he'll be coming at a really nice discount in drafts.  

 

I'm mostly up on him due to the weapons they've added around him.  He might just have the best offensive cast he's had and they finally seem to be putting in an offense that fits his skills with more short, quick passes.

 

I'm planning to wait on QB in my draft and if I can load up on RB's and WR's and draft Cam late, I'll be all over it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, tts42572 said:

 

I agree with this.

 

His career so far seems to be an up season, then a down season.  I think last season is easily his worst season as a pro so he'll be coming at a really nice discount in drafts.  

 

I'm mostly up on him due to the weapons they've added around him.  He might just have the best offensive cast he's had and they finally seem to be putting in an offense that fits his skills with more short, quick passes.

 

I'm planning to wait on QB in my draft and if I can load up on RB's and WR's and draft Cam late, I'll be all over it.

Besides last season, Cam's numbers every season have been roughly the same. The only outlier was the passing TDs two seasons ago which spiked his ADP last season. There was zero reason to expect those passing TDs to continue and he was overvalued last season. Same goes for Bortles two seasons ago and his crazy passing stats.

 

Cam is likely going to be a value pick this summer, but his shoulder is something to keep an eye on in preseason. I like Mariota more though.

Edited by devaster
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, psygolf said:

Do you have Zero concern about his shoulder?

 

There's always concern, but his doctors don't seem concerned about his progress and that's good enough for me given the nature of the operation that he had. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

10 hours ago, tts42572 said:

 

I agree with this.

 

His career so far seems to be an up season, then a down season.  I think last season is easily his worst season as a pro so he'll be coming at a really nice discount in drafts.  

 

I'm mostly up on him due to the weapons they've added around him.  He might just have the best offensive cast he's had and they finally seem to be putting in an offense that fits his skills with more short, quick passes.

 

I'm planning to wait on QB in my draft and if I can load up on RB's and WR's and draft Cam late, I'll be all over it.

Eli might be a better option.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...