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Cam Newton 2017 Season Outlook


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I grabbed him in the 8th. Little worried about it, but we have already seen the upside. Hopefully he continues to play to his strengths. I think he will continue to be a huge threat near the goal line even if his overall carries take a hit. 

 

The additions on offense figure to help him out. Dump-off passes to McCaffrey figure to be a nice little boon to his passing yardage. 

 

Cam's current ADP doesn't scream value, but he feels like a safe option with enormous upside. I'll take that and avoid spending an early pick on one of the top 3 QBs. 

 

 

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I grabbed him in the 5th in my league, in a league which is TD-heavy (all TDs = 6 points, including passing).

 

Two healthy 6'5" / 6'4" WRs on the field, the addition of McCaffrey for the passing game can only boost his passing stats (think of what Jahvid Best / Kevin Smith did for Stafford).

 

I think there's inherent risk, but if you're taking him in the middle of the QB pack, there's a lot of ways he can score TDs.

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21 hours ago, Robrain said:

I grabbed him in the 5th in my league, in a league which is TD-heavy (all TDs = 6 points, including passing).

 

Two healthy 6'5" / 6'4" WRs on the field, the addition of McCaffrey for the passing game can only boost his passing stats (think of what Jahvid Best / Kevin Smith did for Stafford).

 

I think there's inherent risk, but if you're taking him in the middle of the QB pack, there's a lot of ways he can score TDs.

5th seems like a reach to me. What size league?

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

5th seems like a reach to me. What size league?

 

TD-heavy, 6-point passing TDs so QBs go early.  12-team.  Managers like to take backups early sometimes as well so an injury at the position doesn't tank their season.

Edited by Robrain
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39 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

TD-heavy, 6-point passing TDs so QBs go early.  12-team.  Managers like to take backups early sometimes as well so an injury at the position doesn't tank their season.

What QBs went around him? I forgot you mentioned 6-pt passing TDs. That indeed will push QBs up a few rounds.

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On 8/29/2017 at 0:40 PM, Robrain said:

 

TD-heavy, 6-point passing TDs so QBs go early.  12-team.  Managers like to take backups early sometimes as well so an injury at the position doesn't tank their season.

5th round seems like a huge stretch. And that explanation doesn't make sense. In a league where passing TDs are worth 6 points, Cam *loses* value compared to other QBs.

In 4p pt pass TD leagues he has been worth a little more because a large % of his TDs come on the ground, which are worth 50% more

Edited by cs3
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12 minutes ago, cs3 said:

This doesn't make sense. In a league where passing TDs are worth 6 points, Cam *loses* value compared to other QBs.

In 4p pt pass TD leagues he has been worth a little more because a large % of his TDs come on the ground, which are worth 50% more

 

This is because you're mistaking passing TDs versus rushing TDs as being the true focus here instead of projecting total combined TDs.

 

Cam's totals:

 

19+5

35+10

18+5

24+6

19+8

17+14

 

Lowest rushing TDs = 5

 

If he does 35 passing TDs again, plus 5 rushing TDs, that's 40 total TDs which is kind of the magical number to more-or-less guarantee a Top-5 QB.

 

Stafford's mega-season in 2011: 41 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

 

If a QB reaches 40 total TDs, they put up a boatload of fantasy points for you.

 

The league is TD heavy largely because there are NO fractional points.  Every 20 rushing yards gets you a point.  Every 20 receiving yards gets you a point.  Every 50 passing yards gets you a point.

 

20 rushing yards = 1 point

39 rushing yards = 1 point

40 rushing yards = 2 points

 

49 passing yards = 0 points

50 passing yards = 1 point

100 passing yards = 2 points

149 passing yards = 2 points

 

So 1 TD (passing, rushing, or receiving) = 120 rushing yards, or 120 receiving yards, or 60 rushing yards + 60 receiving yards, or 300 passing yards.

 

The scoring settings are basically a holdover from old Yahoo! scoring, since this league has been going for well over a decade.  We've recently implemented 0.5 PPR scoring and changed the 3rd WR slot to a FLEX to balance things a tad.  But keeping the focus on scoring TDs is kind of fun.

 

QBs are the most valuable in this kind of league because no other position really has the potential to put up 3, 4, 5, or more TDs in a single week.

 

This is where knowing your league's specific scoring settings, and what you're trying to get stat-wise out of your players on your roster, is vital.

Edited by Robrain
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No, total TDs is irrelevant to the point Im making. You used 6 pt pass TDs as a reason to move up Cam specifically. What im saying is, the 6 pt passing TDs are not helping him at all in comparison to the QBs going ahead of him or right behind him. In reality it helps him less than basically every other fantasy relevant QB. Don't see how anyone could argue differently.

 

Anyway, if all the top QBs gets a boost from the 6 pt TDs, then drafting them earlier at the expense of high end WRs/RBs still doesn't make sense because QBX is still staying about same in relation to every other QB, and you can only start 1. So you wouldn't be gaining an edge relative to other owners in your league

Edited by cs3
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15 minutes ago, cs3 said:

No, total TDs is irrelevant to the point Im making. You used 6 pt pass TDs as a reason to move up Cam specifically. What im saying is, the 6 pt passing TDs are not helping him at all in comparison to the QBs going ahead of him or right behind him. In reality it helps him less than basically every other fantasy relevant QB. Don't see how anyone could argue differently.

 

Anyway, if all the top QBs gets a boost from the 6 pt TDs, then drafting them earlier at the expense of high end WRs/RBs still doesn't make sense because they're all staying about same in relation to every other QB, and you can only start 1.

 

Let's be clear.  Cam throws passing TDs.  Cam is a QB.  I moved Cam up specifically compared to players at other positions because Cam, as a QB, benefits from the fact that he could easily throw 4 passing TDs in a single game.

 

A RB, WR, or TE has barely any chance to put up 4 TDs in a single game.

 

Could Cam pass for 3, and run for 2 in a great game?  Certainly.

 

Could Rob Kelley rush for 5 TDs in a single game?  If the stars align.

 

You're also incorrect that all QBs benefit the same.  A QB like Jay Cutler who forces passes in the redzone is a much better bet for 3+ passing TDs in a given week than a guy like, say, Alex Smith.  The total TDs that a QB produces make them more or less valuable in this style of league.  If you think a QB is going to put up 35+ total TDs, they become easily more valuable than a QB that doesn't have much of a prayer of breaking 30.

 

Take Sam Bradford as an easy example:

 

Season Team   Passing Rushing Fumbles
  G GS Comp Att Pct Yds Avg TD Int Sck SckY Rate Att Yds Avg TD FUM Lost
2016 Minnesota Vikings 15 15 395 552 71.6 3,877 7.0 20 5 37 276 99.3 20 53 2.7 0 10 5

 

Check out that accuracy and that TD-to-INT ratio!

 

But it doesn't matter how few INTs he threw.  The guy that chucks 35 TDs and 12 INTs will vastly outscore Bradford.  Jay Cutler, who I think is a much worse QB, is much more valuable because he's willing to let that ball rip in the red zone.

 

On any given week where your QB in your lineup totals 4 TDs, that's a hefty amount for your opponent's lineup to offset.  If the opponent's QB only scores 2 TDs that week, the rest of his lineup has to basically tack on two extra TDs just to break even with your lineup, and that's before you've started including any of the players at other positions in your lineup.

 

Brady/Rodgers/and even Brees (especially Peyton Manning in his day) in this league are frequently top picks because of this factor.  Weeks they score 5 TDs can be all it takes to pummel your opponent.

 

The year I won the championship in this particular league was 2011, when an 8th Rounder spent on Stafford put 41 TDs in my starting lineup.  40+ TDs from your QB absolutely gives you a monster head-start in not only making the playoffs, but being competitive all the way up until the fantasy Superbowl (we play the full 17 weeks in this league).

Edited by Robrain
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Are you expecting Cam to put up 40+ total TDs again? Because that was the lone outlier in all of his seasons. He is pretty much a sure bet for 30 total TDs and 4k passing yards a season. Those are his season averages.

 

I actually agree with @cs3 that Cam loses value in a 6pt passing TD league. No way he should have gone in the 5th round unless all of the other elite passing QBs have already gone off the board.

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Panthers' Cam Newton: Without restrictions heading into Week 1

 

Panthers coach Ron Rivera confirmed Tuesday that Newton won't have any restrictions with his throwing during the team's Week 1 matchup with the 49ers. "[Newton is] throwing the ball well," Rivera said. "I'm very excited about it and look forward to the things we're going to do out there."Newton didn't endure any unexpected complications with his surgically repaired throwing shoulder during training camp practices or his lone series of the preseason, so it appears he'll have the full playbook at his disposal to begin the regular season. While concerns about Newton potentially having some rust early on due to the light workload in the preseason may be legitimate, he's positioned well for a bounce-back season thanks to his own improved conditioning -- he checked in at 245 pounds during training camp, the lightest he's been during his career -- and the additions of two intriguing, high-upside targets in running back Christian McCaffrey and wideout Curtis Samuel in the draft.

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5th round is insane - all signs point to a pretty mediocre season for him.

 

1) Major shoulder surgery and has barely thrown the ball in preseason

2) His biggest fantasy asset was always running the ball and there's zero indication that he will run like the Cam Newton of old.  That's where his upside lies and already talks of really limiting the run.

3) Always a mediocre passer so 6 passing TD settings - his value is even less

4) Are we certain he will get GL carries? Seems like JStew is primed for that role.

 

If you're grabbing him after 9, a good roll of the dice but tons of red flags.  5th round is just crazy...

Edited by ludawg23
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1 minute ago, ludawg23 said:

5th round is insane - all signs point to a pretty mediocre season for him.

 

1) Major shoulder surgery and has barely thrown the ball in preseason

2) His biggest fantasy asset was always running the ball and there's zero indication that he will run like the Cam Newton of old.  That's where his upside lies and already talks of really limiting the run.

3) Always a mediocre passer so 6 passing TD settings - his value is even less

4) Are we certain he will get GL carries? Seems like JStew is primed for that role.

 

If you're grabbing him after 9, a good roll of the dice but tons of red flags.  5th round is just crazy...

I can't disagree.  I've been grabbing Russell Wilson as my QB of choice this year instead of Cam.  There's just too much unknown.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 minute ago, Br0kenB said:

Cam is hot garbage. I regret taking him in my season long leagues. The worst part is you have to start him at home against NO next week. If he bombs that, I'm turning to Cutler ROS.

 

Im dropping for cutler this week. Cutler gets jets and saints back to back.... Cam is just not the same and I don't think he will be. I SAY DROP CITY!

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