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Sean Manaea 2017 Outlook


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Not sure if I'm missing his thread (doesn't show up when I searched for it) but if there isn't one I'm shocked.  Seems to be a popular breakout pick with how he ended last year and playing in that Oakland ballpark certainly will help him.  

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He's a guy I'm targeting perhaps a round or two earlier than most in my keeper league. His numbers last year suggest his strikeouts could improve because of a few different plate discipline metrics that speak volumes. His rate at which he gets guys to swing at pitches outside the zone (35.4%), swinging strike rate (11.8%), and his overall swing% (51.6%) would rank 3rd, 12th, and 1st in their respective categories. I don't know if his 144.2 IP doesn't qualify him to be ranked in those standings on Fangraphs since I don't see him there but those are damn good numbers in a pretty good sample size. 

 

Just for fun I started looking at where he ranked among some of the best in the fantasy game. I also threw in a guy many have liked in terms of a potential breakout because he has similar numbers. Manaea pitches a bit more to contact than Syndergaard and Scherzer does which is why his numbers align better with Tanaka. He does however have good skills in being able to make guys miss at the plate. It'll be interesting to see how he evolves as a pitcher. 

 

Manaea (2016)

O-Swing% - 35.4%

Swing% - 51.6%

SwStr% - 11.8%

Contact% - 77.1%

K/9 - 7.71

 

LD% - 21.1%

GB% - 44.2%

FB% - 34.7%

HR/FB% - 13.7%

 

Syndergaard (Career - 2015 & 2016)

O-Swing% - 34.8%

Swing% - 49%

SwStr% - 13.3%

Contact% - 72.7%

K/9 - 10.36

 

 

LD% - 20.9%

GB% - 49%

FB% - 30.1%

HR/FB% - 11.5%

 

Scherzer (Career and 2016 since he's had a much longer career and has gotten better)

O-Swing% - 30.6% career and 34.7% 2016

Swing% - 48.4% career and 51.5% 2016

SwStr% - 12.2% career and 15.3% 2016

Contact% - 74.7% career and 70.2% 2016

K/9 - 9.98 career and 11.19 2016

 

LD% - 20.1% career and 19.2% 2016

GB% - 37.7% career and 33% 2016

FB% - 42.2% career and 47.9% 2016

HR/FB% - 110.2% career and 11.9% 2016

 

Tanaka (Career - 2014 through 2016)

O-Swing% - 37%

Swing% - 49.5%

SwStr% - 11.8%

Contact% - 76.3%

K/9 - 8.17

 

LD% - 21.2%

GB% - 47.4%

FB% - 31.4%

HR/FB% - 14.1%

 

Gausman (2016 only because it was the 1st year the Orioles gave him a full time gig in that role)

O-Swing% - 34.1%

Swing% - 47.6%

SwStr% - 10.8%

Contact% - 77.6%

K/9 - 8.72

 

LD% - 21.2%

GB% - 44.1%

FB% - 34.7%

HR/FB% - 15.4%

Edited by BostonCajun
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7 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Thoughts on this guy?? He is available in my ten teamer.  Will he have an innings cap this year ??

Oakland has been an organization that generally doesn't limit their pitchers much at all and he threw 165 IP last season, so I don't think he will have any kind of cap.

 

I'm really high on this guy.  Those second half numbers for a rookie are to drool over.  Usually guys struggle as the scouts catch up and fade down the stretch. Instead, he improved in every way and posted a 2.67 ERA with an increased K/9 and decreased BB/9 in the second half.

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12 minutes ago, The Czar said:

Oakland has been an organization that generally doesn't limit their pitchers much at all and he threw 165 IP last season, so I don't think he will have any kind of cap.

 

I'm really high on this guy.  Those second half numbers for a rookie are to drool over.  Usually guys struggle as the scouts catch up and fade down the stretch. Instead, he improved in every way and posted a 2.67 ERA with an increased K/9 and decreased BB/9 in the second half.

 

Many concern with his awful spring ??

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9 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

Many concern with his awful spring ??

 

I like to take spring training stats and have them printed on toilet paper.  The most useless thing in fantasy baseball to look at.  

 

The only things I look for are buzzwords like arm fatigue or decreased velocity or will check in on guys in obvious competitions for a roster spot.  Other than that, it is guys trying a new pitch, or just throwing fastballs to get their work in.  Any teams playing in Arizona, shouldn't even keep stats.  The ball gets dried out and guys can't grip their offspeed stuff and nothing breaks like it should there anyway.  Get Manaea back to Oakland with that marine layer and a cold night and he will be able to throw the ball right down the middle and not worry about it leaving the yard on weak contact.

 

4.74 ERA in spring isn't that bad actually.

 

Edited by The Czar
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50 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I really like him, and would reach for him for sure. He's being pretty hyped though. I'd be more than happy with him as my SP3.

The most slept on sleeper in this years draft. I reached for him on all my teams. Got him as my 4th and 5th starter in each.

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3 hours ago, The Czar said:

 

I like to take spring training stats and have them printed on toilet paper.  The most useless thing in fantasy baseball to look at.  

 

The only things I look for are buzzwords like arm fatigue or decreased velocity or will check in on guys in obvious competitions for a roster spot.  Other than that, it is guys trying a new pitch, or just throwing fastballs to get their work in.  Any teams playing in Arizona, shouldn't even keep stats.  The ball gets dried out and guys can't grip their offspeed stuff and nothing breaks like it should there anyway.  Get Manaea back to Oakland with that marine layer and a cold night and he will be able to throw the ball right down the middle and not worry about it leaving the yard on weak contact.

 

4.74 ERA in spring isn't that bad actually.

 

I completely agree. Though I always follow ST numbers I very rarely let them influence my decisions come draft day. Most often players, especially pitchers, and young ones like Manaea are working on fine tuning certain pitches. For example, a guy may be working on adding a new pitch or they may just want to improve their change up because they want it to get to the same level as their other pitches. Therefore they would throw their change up a lot more and focus less on the other two pitches and not necessarily care about the result of the at bat but rather the result of each individual pitch. 

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15 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Anyone watch?

I saw about an inning. His heater looked kinda straight.

 

All the damage was pretty much done on hard hit ground balls. Especially Trout's triple, which was just a ground ball down the line that was played horrifically by Khris Davis.

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