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Sean Manaea 2017 Outlook


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20 more swinging strikes last night. Was squeezed a bit too, could've easily been a 9:1 k:bb instead of 7:3. Fastball velo was a bit down but it didn't matter; he actually had the 2nd highest single game whiff % of his young career on his fastball last night.

 

In 9 starts (ignoring the injury shortened one) he hasn't given up more than 5 hits in any of them. If you filter to pitchers with 50+ ip, Manaea is 6th in swinging strikes and 3rd in overall contact %. His contact % is largely driven by the 15th best chase rate and #1 outside the zone contact rate. His BABIP will correct, but he's flat out a hard pitcher to hit. His biggest obstacles are health and himself. If he can keep his walk rate down and stay healthy, he should put up top 25 numbers. 

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3 hours ago, borindia said:

Top 20 ROS? 

Yes.

3 hours ago, borindia said:

Keeper?

Depends. I own him in all 3 of my leagues. 20 (14 teams), 10 (14 teams), and 7 keepers (10 teams). Probably will keep him in all but my 7 keeper league.

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For pitchers with 60+ ip Manaea is now 3rd overall in swinging strike rate, 1st in contact %, 12th in zone contact. Talk about hard to hit. One of the few guys that I don't worry about a slight dip in velo. He spots his fastball well and keeps hitters so off balance that he still racks up high whiff totals with it. I've considered selling high given the bought with shoulder tightness he had a month ago, but there's not a long list of guys I'd take over him. Burgeoning stud. 

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5 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

His next start is against the Yanks, if he pitches well he could live up to his billing

 

If he goes out and gives up four runs in 5 innings to the Yankees, he's still worth owning in every single 10 and 12 team league.  This start against the Yankees won't remotely change that fact.

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34 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

His next start is against the Yanks, if he pitches well he could live up to his billing

So, it takes doing it twice to convince you? Serious question.

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1 minute ago, Z06vette said:

So, it takes doing it twice to convince you? Serious question.

He didn't pitch well until he came back from injury, he had a pretty good 2nd half last year, brutal 1st month this year and a few good starts recently, i need to see a little more

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Just now, azeri98 said:

He didn't pitch well until he came back from injury, he had a pretty good 2nd half last year, brutal 1st month this year and a few good starts recently, i need to see a little more

Fair enough....Those few starts you're talking about, just keep in mind who those teams were...The post above yours from Red Sox Nation, did you read that? That's pretty convincing too me.

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2 minutes ago, Z06vette said:

Fair enough....Those few starts you're talking about, just keep in mind who those teams were...The post above yours from Red Sox Nation, did you read that? That's pretty convincing too me.

Yes i did but if he's really good like he is projected to be he should be able to pitch well against any team, i know every pitcher has their bad days thats expected in a long season, i just want to see consistency, he pitched well against the Indians and Jays two pretty good offensive teams, so i'm optimistic about his future, just want to see more, thats all

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5 wins in a row and 6 for his last 8 is enough for me to hold him.  He threw 7 innings of shutout ball at Yankee stadium the last time he faced them.  

 

Must start at home.

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17 minutes ago, borindia said:

No Hicks or Sanchez.  Are we starting tonight?

Manaea 3-0, 3.21 at home this year, 3.02 last year. He's only given up more than 5 hits once this season.

 

Yanks only hitting .247 vs. LHP (.286 vs. RHP), only 16-17 on the road. I'm starting him.

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1 hour ago, crotchcrickets said:

id be starting him even with sanchez and hicks in the lineup

 

Agree 100%, you start him whoever he's playing at this point. Well, maybe not against the Rockies @ Coors, but that's a whole different deal. 

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At this point- it's basically very dangerous to start anybody vs Judge and the Yankees. Guy is on pace for almost 60 home runs and just not slumping at all right now. Maybe if/when he hits a slump along with a few other Yankees it will be easier to use pitchers vs them- until then you're playing with fire. 

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There was a hard hit ball at Pinder that a better fielder probably makes a play on. Judge 3-run bomb followed. Manaea wasn't THAT bad last night, and no shame in having an Aaron Judge homer be the difference in a QS or not. He still induced whiffs, good contact rates, so no worries. Tough matchup vs Houston on deck, but at least it's home. 

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