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Ameer Abdullah 2017 Outlook


Winky
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Started the 2016 season as the guy after flashing in his rookie season and his sophomore pre-season.

Promptly gets hurt and was lost for the season.

 

The Lions depth chart is nothing special with Zenner and post double wrist surgery Theo Riddick currently sitting atop the pile.

I expect Abdullah can win the job back, but can he be the guy moving forward.

 

At 5'9", 203 he's a little smallish to be a workhorse, most likely leaving the stripe and short yardage work to Zenner.

Has Zenner done enough to keep the early down work, pushing Abdullah into a 3rd down competition with Riddick?

 

Assuming health, I believe Abdullah is better than both RBs and he will be just 24 this season (Both Zenner & Riddick still young at 26).

Will they draft another guy and add to the committee?

 

What do you guys think?

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Not interested, personally.  

 

Doesn't get GL carries, and Riddick vultures the passing game work.  

 

He got hurt after facing arguably the worst rush defense in the league, so his projected numbers based on his small sample size are dramatically inflated for 2016. 

 

I'd much rather have someone like Woodhead. 

 

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I love his talent. But no o-line, maybe no goal line opportunities. He did have 17 touches week 1 but as @Joshua18 said, it was against the Colts. What's interesting though, is that received 5 receptions week 1. I expect him and Riddick to split work. Abdullah can be in on all downs versus Riddick who is more of a third down specialist. I'll buy Abdullah in the later rounds assuming the Lions don't go ahead and draft an RB. A Theo Riddick injury would be extremely beneficial to Abdullah and we all know Riddick isn't the sturdiest RB out there. 

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The additions of OT Ricky Wagner and G T.J. Lang perked my ears up during the FA period and i expect this Lions  OL to be a good one.  Detroit clearly entered 2016 with high hopes for Abdullah and right out the gate i thought Ameer was on his way vs INDY opening week, to then have his season cut short due to a foot injury the following week.  Coming off injury + Riddick returning do come with some concern but overall i think both RB's will still be worth investing in, and in most formats, i'd have them as easy flex plays, esp in PPR.     FWIW, I'm not worried about Zenner. He's  a fine journeyman player, but he's going to go back to his third string role, as he has every year of his career.   

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I doubt the Lions give up on Abdullah and draft another RB already.

 

They don't need a 1,000 yard rusher, and Cooter has said so explicitly before.  It wouldn't be in character for them to draft a 3-down workhorse.  I don't see why Abdullah can't put together an 850 rushing, 250 receiving, 6 total TD type of season.  For a 7th round ADP and his athletic upside, I will probably end up biting again.  If fragile Riddick gets hurt, then the sky is the limit.

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19 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

I doubt the Lions give up on Abdullah and draft another RB already.

 

They don't need a 1,000 yard rusher, and Cooter has said so explicitly before.  It wouldn't be in character for them to draft a 3-down workhorse.  I don't see why Abdullah can't put together an 850 rushing, 250 receiving, 6 total TD type of season.  For a 7th round ADP and his athletic upside, I will probably end up biting again.  If fragile Riddick gets hurt, then the sky is the limit.

 

Abdullah is far more fragile than Riddick and has a higher and more consistent PPR floor.

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35 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

2. Guaranteed 5-6 targets/game regardless of game flow

i figure its in the Lions best interest to make sure Ameer and Riddick both see a healthy work load, as they did in week 1 of last year.  Sure, i understand that was a shootout, week 1, vs a bad Defense, but both guys were plenty relevant and both cashed in decent numbers.  Ameer won't ever be a three down workhorse RB, neither will Riddick, neither will be drafted as such though in FF.  I'd in Abdullahs corner in 2017 more then i am in Riddicks.

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54 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

1. Doesn't get hurt as often

 

2. Guaranteed 5-6 targets/game regardless of game flow 

 

 

 

How does he not get hurt as often? I just don't see how you come to that conclusion. And also last year week 1 Abdullah had 5 receptions even when game flow was in favor of lions. Riddick also had 5 receptions. 

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4 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

How does he not get hurt as often? I just don't see how you come to that conclusion. And also last year week 1 Abdullah had 5 receptions even when game flow was in favor of lions. Riddick also had 5 receptions. 

 

Because IND had literally the worst pair of starting LBs in the league, so it made sense to attack BOTH of them with both RBs in the passing game. Literally no other opponent would have both of its starting LBs bad enough to allow two RBs to torch them through the air. Caldwell is a good coach and obviously exploited that in week 1. 

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Big worry for me ...wasn't a pick of the current front office regime. With no personal capital invested in him the GM may draft a young back for competition.

 

Elite measurable profile, rave reviews about his football intelligence by interviewers prior to draft, versatility in that he can catch the ball  downfield and run between tackles as he was most often asked to do at Nebraska. Reminds me of a slightly less polished McCaffrey. Christian had the better stats but played on a team with a better line and in a conference with weaker defenses.

 

  Jim Bob Cooter has shown a propensity for rbbc which if it holds true in 2017 will limit Abdullah's high end potential. Would they even give AA a full load opportunity?

 

  But only Abdullah provides the threat of running in any personnel package currently on the Lions roster. Stafford has his choice of audibling at the line into a play that has a better chance of working.Reddick can't run inside at all. Zenner for all his hard work doesn't have the big play threat or elusivness on screen plays or sweeps. Defenses know these tendencies but can't rely on that with AA in the backfield.

 

  If Ameer can gain Caldwell's trust early in season I think he will have a top 15 RB year in ppr leagues. Lack of goal line role should prevent him from finishing top ten as he will have get his bulk of TD's from farther out.But if AA struggles out of the gate and a full blown rbbc emerges I could see him falling out of the top 30. Not a sure investment but at the right risk the rewards could be immense.

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2 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

True I forgot about that. Ameer still had a good amount of receptions before the injury though right?

 

Can't remember exactly. I do remember the receiving TD, and thinking "this only happened cuz Riddick was out. Better try to sell high." lol

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6 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

 

  If Ameer can gain Caldwell's trust early in season I think he will have a top 15 RB year in ppr leagues. Lack of goal line role should prevent him from finishing top ten as he will have get his bulk of TD's from farther out.But if AA struggles out of the gate and a full blown rbbc emerges I could see him falling out of the top 30. Not a sure investment but at the right risk the rewards could be immense.

 

Good summary.

 

One thing is for sure: as it stands, he is the best RB in Detroit.

 

I can't imagine anyone taking him higher than round 8, and he is easily worth a shot at that price. I'm even tempted to trade for him in dynasty, he won't get any cheaper and his talent is unquestionable. Fumbles are a major issue, but fixable.

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33 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Good summary.

 

One thing is for sure: as it stands, he is the best RB in Detroit.

 

I can't imagine anyone taking him higher than round 8, and he is easily worth a shot at that price. I'm even tempted to trade for him in dynasty, he won't get any cheaper and his talent is unquestionable. Fumbles are a major issue, but fixable.

That could change:

Lions GM Bob Quinn said he thinks Adrian Peterson still has gas left in the tank.

Quinn did not say if the Lions were pursuing the future Hall of Famer, but it is an interesting comment considering he has talked about the need to improve the running game this offseason. Peterson has said he is interested in helping a team "win a championship." The Lions might not be at that level, but they should compete for a playoff spot in 2017.
 
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10 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

Good summary.

 

One thing is for sure: as it stands, he is the best RB in Detroit.

 

I can't imagine anyone taking him higher than round 8, and he is easily worth a shot at that price. I'm even tempted to trade for him in dynasty, he won't get any cheaper and his talent is unquestionable. Fumbles are a major issue, but fixable.

 

Between injuries, fumbles, and inconsistent performances-    I have major questions about his ability to be an NFL back.   Riddick will be healthy and good to go- and is the guy I want to target in the mid rounds.  

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