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Ameer Abdullah 2017 Outlook


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I'm not scared of Riddick at all. Abdullah is a fantastic pass catcher and will most likely take over this entire backfield if he keeps showing that burst and power. You don't take a pass catcher like this off the field on third downs.

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000700463/Matthew-

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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Yes, we all know that "Riddick is the pass catching RB" which hurts his PPR value.  But do we all seriously think that the Lions will NEVER throw the ball to an RB on first and second down?  Stafford looks downfield, he sees his WRs covered, Ebron is covered, so he dumps off to AA who also has shown he can catch the ball?  Come on now, people.  I think he easily gets 30 receptions this year.  Lots of people here seem to be saying that because Riddick is the 3rd down back, that AA isn't worth squat in PPR formats.  We're not expecting LeSean McCoy 70 reception type numbers here.  McCoy is a first rounder.  Abdullah can be had in the 5th or 6th round.  How many 3 down backs can you find in those rounds?

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In 2015 when Ameer and Bell were splitting touches

 

Reddick had 99 Targets

Ameer had 38 Targets

Bell had 27 Targets

 

Last year non Reddick RBs combined for 48 Targets

 

So now that Ameer the clear top dog.. Its reasonable to expect a range between 40 to 55 targets, no?

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, CooL said:

Yes, we all know that "Riddick is the pass catching RB" which hurts his PPR value.  But do we all seriously think that the Lions will NEVER throw the ball to an RB on first and second down?  Stafford looks downfield, he sees his WRs covered, Ebron is covered, so he dumps off to AA who also has shown he can catch the ball?  Come on now, people.  I think he easily gets 30 receptions this year.  Lots of people here seem to be saying that because Riddick is the 3rd down back, that AA isn't worth squat in PPR formats.  We're not expecting LeSean McCoy 70 reception type numbers here.  McCoy is a first rounder.  Abdullah can be had in the 5th or 6th round.  How many 3 down backs can you find in those rounds?

As a Lions fan I don't see AA becoming a 3 down back, Riddick has just been so good for us. 

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~1,500 total yards and maybe a TD.

2 down back with no goal line work.  Low end RB2.

 

Assuming both players are healthy all year, Riddick will finish with similar fantasy points and is the better bet in PPR leagues.

 

DET's LT is out for the year.  He was a stud as a rookie.  Looks like they brought in Rams bust Greg Robinson to replace him.  That might work?  Good luck!  They also upgraded RT by signing BAL's FA.  

 

Stafford has been throwing the crap out of the ball to both Marvin Jones and Tate in pre-season.  Detroit also lost their best DE for the season: 8.5 sacks last year.  Stafford knows he will need to put up points to compete.  I will not be betting on DETs running game this year.  Stafford is always around the league leaders in passing attempts.  Jones and Riddick are incredibly cheap.  Tate and Abdullah have "eh" value. 

 

Stafford is also in a contract year.  He is 5-46 in his career against teams with winning records, and he is about to be the highest paid QB in NFL history.

 

Stafford is NOT handing the ball off to RBs this year.  That's dumb.  

 

That is the information you need to make an informed choice.

Good luck.

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4 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

DET's LT is out for the year.  He was a stud as a rookie.  Looks like they brought in Rams bust Greg Robinson to replace him.  That might work?  Good luck!

 

Um Greg Robinson has improved greatly this offseason.  I'm sure any Lions fan can back this up.

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7 hours ago, cdd10 said:

As a Lions fan I don't see AA becoming a 3 down back, Riddick has just been so good for us. 

 

Exactly why would the Lions stop doing what has worked well for them? Barring injury or falling off of a performance cliff Riddick is in the game

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2 hours ago, jmausen said:

DET's LT is out for the year.  He was a stud as a rookie.  Looks like they brought in Rams bust Greg Robinson to replace him.  That might work?  Good luck!  They also upgraded RT by signing BAL's FA.  

 

LT is not out for the year.  He had a 4-6 month timetable starting in June.

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Took Ameer as the 26th rb off the board, pick 67 overall. I don't feel great about it, but he's an explosive game changer so I'm hoping he can be a ppr rb2 who scores a few long td's. Of course, any goal line is welcome as well. Everyone talks about Riddick, who I agree he'll stay plenty involved, but let's not act like Abdullah can't be a good pass catcher. He even split out wide on a slant vs the Pats on a  (and made the catch). 

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19 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Took Ameer as the 26th rb off the board, pick 67 overall. I don't feel great about it, but he's an explosive game changer so I'm hoping he can be a ppr rb2 who scores a few long td's. Of course, any goal line is welcome as well. Everyone talks about Riddick, who I agree he'll stay plenty involved, but let's not act like Abdullah can't be a good pass catcher. He even split out wide on a slant vs the Pats on a  (and made the catch). 

I did about the same.  Took Ameer as my RB2 at pick 66.  I like that spot.  The level of risk there at that point fits perfect with his profile.  If Ameer plays a full season I could see him being a high end RB2.  I don't know if he quite has top 10 upside. I like his talent though.  Kid has always looked dynamic to me. 

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21 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I did about the same.  Took Ameer as my RB2 at pick 66.  I like that spot.  The level of risk there at that point fits perfect with his profile.  If Ameer plays a full season I could see him being a high end RB2.  I don't know if he quite has top 10 upside. I like his talent though.  Kid has always looked dynamic to me. 

I took him around 50 in standard today because I think he does have top 10 upside.

 

I know it's a little high but frankly everything in that range is a total crap shoot. You won't get a running back after pick 45 or so that's better than Abdullah. Either way, he has demonstrated his ability and while I doubt he can take away the receiving game from Riddick I can also see him being in for entire drives. 

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RW Logic:

 

- Mixon (new shiny thing) is a great pick in the 4th round.  Sure Gio is a good and effective pass-catching back, and Hill will likely get GL carries, but talent always wins out, so I don't care about them.  Mixon will be the workhorse 3-down back in no time!!

 

- Abdullah (old slightly tarnished shiny thing) isn't a very good pick in the 5th.  Riddick is going to be the 3rd down back and Zenner the GL back, and they'll take all of his touches away and there will be no value there.  Why would Detroit ever consider giving Abdullah a bigger slice of that pie when committees work so well??

 

(Disclaimer: Not comparing Mixon and Abdullah directly, just their situations.  Clearly both are the most talented backs on their respective teams, and have the hands and skills to play in all situations, but one gets love heaped on and the other is mostly skepticism.)

 

Also our only recent sample of Abdullah and Riddick in a game together came in Week 1 of last season, where Abdullah had 12 carries vs. Riddick's 7, and both Abdullah and Riddick had 5 targets and 5 receptions each.  That was also a game that Stafford attempted 39 passes vs. only 24 rushing attempts.  AA finished with 120 combined yards and a TD.  I know this was a shootout and not necessarily the norm, but it's almost like AA and Riddick both got targets, and there was plenty for both to eat fantasy-wise.  Hmmm

Edited by handyandy86
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4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

RW Logic:

 

- Mixon (new shiny thing) is a great pick in the 4th round.  Sure Gio is a good and effective pass-catching back, and Hill will likely get GL carries, but talent always wins out, so I don't care about them.  Mixon will be the workhorse 3-down back in no time!!

 

- Abdullah (old slightly tarnished shiny thing) isn't a very good pick in the 5th.  Riddick is going to be the 3rd down back and Zenner the GL back, and they'll take all of his touches away and there will be no value there.  Why would Detroit ever consider giving Abdullah a bigger slice of that pie when committees work so well??

 

(Disclaimer: Not comparing Mixon and Abdullah directly, just their situations.  Clearly both are the most talented backs on their respective teams, and have the hands and skills to play in all situations, but one gets love heaped on and the other is mostly skepticism.)

 

Also our only recent sample of Abdullah and Riddick in a game together came in Week 1 of last season, where Abdullah had 12 carries vs. Riddick's 7, and both Abdullah and Riddick had 5 targets and 5 receptions each.  That was also a game that Stafford attempted 39 passes vs. only 24 rushing attempts.  AA finished with 120 combined yards and a TD.  I know this was a shootout and not necessarily the norm, but it's almost like AA and Riddick both got targets, and there was plenty for both to eat fantasy-wise.  Hmmm

Yeah, with as high as all of these rookie runners are going, there's going to be a lot of owners who are polishing a shiny turd by mid season. Fournette, Mixon, Hunt, Cook, McCaffrey. All so tempting because the sky is the limit. 

 

3 of these guys won't even finish with RB2 stats. 

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On 8/27/2017 at 7:11 AM, jmausen said:

~1,500 total yards and maybe a TD.

2 down back with no goal line work.  Low end RB2.

 

Assuming both players are healthy all year, Riddick will finish with similar fantasy points and is the better bet in PPR leagues.

 

DET's LT is out for the year.  He was a stud as a rookie.  Looks like they brought in Rams bust Greg Robinson to replace him.  That might work?  Good luck!  They also upgraded RT by signing BAL's FA.  

 

Stafford has been throwing the crap out of the ball to both Marvin Jones and Tate in pre-season.  Detroit also lost their best DE for the season: 8.5 sacks last year.  Stafford knows he will need to put up points to compete.  I will not be betting on DETs running game this year.  Stafford is always around the league leaders in passing attempts.  Jones and Riddick are incredibly cheap.  Tate and Abdullah have "eh" value. 

 

Stafford is also in a contract year.  He is 5-46 in his career against teams with winning records, and he is about to be the highest paid QB in NFL history.

 

Stafford is NOT handing the ball off to RBs this year.  That's dumb.  

 

That is the information you need to make an informed choice.

Good luck.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. 

 

1 touchdown? For like the entire season? Even if he doesn't get a single touch inside the 10 he will have more than that. 

 

LT is out for a few months, not all season. 

 

We not only signed Baltimore RT but also GBs RG. 

 

Kerry Hyder is NOT our best DE, ever heard of a guy named Ziggy Ansah?

 

Please go. You have absolutely no ground to even use the term "informed choice". You have no clue what you're talking about. 

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10 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I took him around 50 in standard today because I think he does have top 10 upside.

 

I know it's a little high but frankly everything in that range is a total crap shoot. You won't get a running back after pick 45 or so that's better than Abdullah. Either way, he has demonstrated his ability and while I doubt he can take away the receiving game from Riddick I can also see him being in for entire drives. 

I did the same. Kind of regretting it now after sobering up.

 

Hope he has a good year.

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45 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I did the same. Kind of regretting it now after sobering up.

 

Hope he has a good year.

Don't.

 

I mentioned this in another thread but a players value is relative to who is going around him. Once you hit around pick 45 the next 20 or so players all have a ton of questions minus maybe a few. If you need a RB, there is no better choice.

 

Sure I could have maybe taken a WR but due to trading picks I had 3 in the 47-51 range. I wanted a 3rd RB due to playing in standard and he was clearly the best choice.

 

Don't be fooled by the other RBs. His ceiling is great. If something happened to Riddick he has easy top 8 potential. Even with Riddick I see his ceiling as a low end RB1. I avoided him last two years but the 40-70 range is so dry in my opinion that there isn't really all that much better.

Edited by Gohawks
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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Don't.

 

I mentioned this in another thread but a players value is relative to who is going around him. Once you hit around pick 45 the next 20 or so players all have a ton of questions minus maybe a few. If you need a RB, there is no better choice.

 

Sure I could have maybe taken a WR but due to trading picks I had 3 in the 47-51 range. I wanted a 3rd RB due to playing in standard and he was clearly the best choice.

 

Don't be fooled by the other RBs. His ceiling is great. If something happened to Riddick he has easy top 8. Even then I see his ceiling as a low end RB1. I avoided him last two years but the 40-70 range is so dry in my opinion that there isn't really all that much better.

Yea, I agree with your points and that's the main reason I drafted him where I did. I didn't like any other running backs that were left over him and I was strong at receiver already. Hope he works out.

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55 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Don't be fooled by the other RBs. His ceiling is great. If something happened to Riddick he has easy top 8 potential. Even with Riddick I see his ceiling as a low end RB1. I avoided him last two years but the 40-70 range is so dry in my opinion that there isn't really all that much better.

 

This is a fair point. There lies the opportunity for the perfect storm which vaults Abdullah into low-end rb1 territory. The Lions would likely mix in Zenner if Riddick went down, but Abdullah's role would 100% grow. 

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4 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. 

 

1 touchdown? For like the entire season? Even if he doesn't get a single touch inside the 10 he will have more than that. 

 

LT is out for a few months, not all season. 

 

We not only signed Baltimore RT but also GBs RG. 

 

Kerry Hyder is NOT our best DE, ever heard of a guy named Ziggy Ansah?

 

Please go. You have absolutely no ground to even use the term "informed choice". You have no clue what you're talking about. 

 

 

 

Taylor Decker is out 4-6 months from June.  You're optimistic about his return.

 

Yes, Detroit got a guard from GB, DET's went to NO, and NO's guard went to GB.  Detroit won, and GB got the biggest downgrade.

 

"maybe a TD" is a metaphor for a 2 down back in a system that features the passing game.  No reason to believe he will ever get a touch inside the 5 yard line.  He'll break loose for a few, but TDs will be limited.  You are not drafting him for his TD upside.

 

DET's pass rush hasn't been very good since old man Ford fired Jim Schwartz.  Schwartz, by the way, took the Lions to the playoffs only 3 short years after they finished 0-16.

 

Ansuh is still on PUP from last year.  DET says they aren't worried about him.  They also weren't worried about the torn ligament in Stafford's throwing hand last year either.  So there is that.

 

 

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I think the thing with the Lions and their unwillingness to commit to the run may have something to do with the guys they've had running the ball lately. In 2013 they ran the ball 445 times for over 1700 yds. Bush led the way with ~1000 rushing yds and 4.5 ypc. I believe they've gone down in attempts, yards and YPC every year since. But when the guys you have are trudging along at 3.9 or less ypc, you may have to chuck it around. 

 

However, if you have an RB who's getting you 4.5 ypc or so, you may not have to throw as often...I'm not a coach, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but if, as a coach, I have a guy who is putting me in positive down/distance situations when handing him the ball, and keeping the defense guessing, I'll keep handing it to him. 

 

Now, I don't have any idea what we're gonna see out of AA this year, but I do know that if he can be the same kid we saw the first two games of 2016 and the same guy we saw the the game 3 dress rehearsal (99 total yds in less than a full game), he could provide returns from his 6th round draft position. 

 

Sign me up. 

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2 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

This is a fair point. There lies the opportunity for the perfect storm which vaults Abdullah into low-end rb1 territory. The Lions would likely mix in Zenner if Riddick went down, but Abdullah's role would 100% grow. 

Actually, it's not that great of a point. 

 

Theres tons of RBs we could say this about. 

 

"If McCaff went down, Jstew has top 10 upside"

 

Repeat for any RB stuck in a committee. Look at what Ware's injury did for Kareem Hunt's stock. 

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Abdullah will have plenty of value in PPR leagues when healthy.

 

And if he gets hurt, Riddick turns into a rock solid RB2 in PPR leagues, and probably standard too. 

 

A 6th and a 9th rounder for a guaranteed RB2 is a pretty reasonable cost.

Edited by GriffeySwag
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