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Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

I'm mostly just trying to gauge people's level of confidence in Henry's talent vs. another young RB. Henry is already going in the 5th (with the caveat that its way early) and Mixon doesn't even register on FF Calculator's ADP list yet. Many think Henry was the top RB (talent-wise) of 2016; Mixon tops in 2017. So put another way, would you rather have Mixon or Henry as a keeper for 2018 (again assuming Mixon goes to one of the aforementioned teams) since the two of them will probably end up going around the same time in fantasy drafts?

 

That's definitely a horse of a different color. I think I would need to see exactly where Mixon ends up first to make an educated guess.

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2 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

That's definitely a horse of a different color. I think I would need to see exactly where Mixon ends up first to make an educated guess.

 

This.   Because Henry has a great infrastructure around him. 

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10 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

"I'm mostly just trying to gauge people's level of confidence in Henry's talent vs. another young RB. Henry is already going in the 5th (with the caveat that its way early) and Mixon doesn't even register on FF Calculator's ADP list yet. Many think Henry was the top RB (talent-wise) of 2016; Mixon tops in 2017. So put another way, would you rather have Mixon or Henry as a keeper for 2018 (again assuming Mixon goes to one of the aforementioned teams) since the two of them will probably end up going around the same time in fantasy drafts?"

 

I've watched Mixon, he reminds me of Melvin Gordon, a big time home run hitter. Excellent blend of speed, power & elusiveness. Can run & receive, knows when to get low, finishes very well. As noted, whether he ends up in as good a situation, you'll have to wait to see. Possesses excellent vision & balance, change of direction is very good. Stiff arms anybody that comes at him high, they really struggle to get a piece of him up there. The thing about Henry though, I question whether he'll be that high where you're drafting. But even if he is, you've said you're looking at a 2018 keeper. Watching MIxon, that was all deep-I stuff & sometimes when OCs take that ramp up phase away they're not as effective. May want to consider Henry's intangibles...    

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18 hours ago, Winky said:

2016 DeMarco Murray:293-1287-9, 53-377-3

He has rushed for over 1000 yards for 3 of the last 4 years.

He has caught 50+ balls 3 of the last 4 years (44 in the "off" year).

 

In essence, he is a workhorse RB.

He is signed to the big money and is the RB that they are paying like a workhorse to be the workhorse.

Henry, while I think he could be a good one, was drafted as injury insurance or as Plan B in case the Philadelphia version of Murray was not an anomaly.

Clearly, he has proven to be a workhorse, so Henry will remain the high potential RB waiting in the wings.

He will certainly see some work this season, but we would be getting ahead of ourselves to call it a job share.

 

I'd like to see Henry get the rock and would like to see what he can do, but as the saying goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

The Tennessee backfield ain't broke.

 

 

Didnt make the playoffs any of those years either and only 1 season removed from his worst year ever.

 

And another year older

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50 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Didnt make the playoffs any of those years either and only 1 season removed from his worst year ever.

 

And another year older

 

Not sure what not making the playoffs has to do with Murray...

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7 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

I've watched Mixon, he reminds me of Melvin Gordon, a big time home run hitter. Excellent blend of speed, power & elusiveness. Can run & receive, knows when to get low, finishes very well. As noted, whether he ends up in as good a situation, you'll have to wait to see. Possesses excellent vision & balance, change of direction is very good. Stiff arms anybody that comes at him high, they really struggle to get a piece of him up there. The thing about Henry though, I question whether he'll be that high where you're drafting. But even if he is, you've said you're looking at a 2018 keeper. Watching MIxon, that was all deep-I stuff & sometimes when OCs take that ramp up phase away they're not as effective. May want to consider Henry's intangibles...    

 

Agree with all this except the Melvin Gordon comparison to Mixon.

 

What are these intangibles you speak of with Henry? I'm not near as sold on Henry as many are in this thread. My big draft is in June and the guy with Murray in my league is likely to reach for Henry early.

 

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2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Didnt make the playoffs any of those years either and only 1 season removed from his worst year ever.

 

And another year older

But if Derrick Henry ran for 1300/9 with 50 receptions they would have made the playoffs, right?

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

Not sure what not making the playoffs has to do with Murray...

 

Doest always get short yardage first downs, not a bruiser for GL situations, has a hard time draining the clock out to seal the victory.

 

Murray last year had some amazing runs but not a lot of pound it runs. He had several scampers over 40 yards thanks to that OL. That boosts hos rushing yardage up so he has nice stats. 

 

Im just ready to see the next eddie geirge unleashed for the Titans and that is D Henry.

 

Should start this year with GL and short yardage work damn near locked up already.

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47 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Agree with all this except the Melvin Gordon comparison to Mixon.

 

What are these intangibles you speak of with Henry? I'm not near as sold on Henry as many are in this thread. My big draft is in June and the guy with Murray in my league is likely to reach for Henry early.

 

 

Henry can catch, block, run, pass protect, run you over, outrun you.

 

He does everything Murray foes at 6'3 and 23tlbs.

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13 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

"Agree with all this except the Melvin Gordon comparison to Mixon. What are these intangibles you speak of with Henry? I'm not near as sold on Henry as many are in this thread. My big draft is in June and the guy with Murray in my league is likely to reach for Henry early."

 

With respect to Henry's intangibles there's his rare combination of size & deceptive speed. He's a very physical presence, wears a defense down, a grinder. I've read that he's a "a dogged worker, and a natural leader." Which of course goes to his mindset & approach to the game. Here's what Titans running backs coach Sylvester Croom is quoted as saying:

 

Quote

“From my contacts at the university, his leadership qualities and intangibles were reported to be very high,’’ Croom said of Henry, “and so far they have been." http://www.titansonline.com/news/article-4/Titans-RBs-coach-Believes-Derrick-Henry-will-be-“a-good-football-player”/b5b2f923-a926-4c21-8747-7d85ff8eac9b

 

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18 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

But if Derrick Henry ran for 1300/9 with 50 receptions they would have made the playoffs, right?

 

Yes, cause Henry can drain the clock in the 4th quarter like Blount dud for NE.

 

Murray boosts his stats woth long runs from a good OL but cant drainn the clock and move the chains.

 

Blind statz are irrelevant. Murray could run for 2000 yards but if he isnt getting short yardage first downs and punching it in from the goaline then the Titans will never make the playoffs.

 

Murray had 9 Tds?  Bloubt had 12 or more in a limited role becaise he would get carries to finish teams off in the 4th quarter.

 

Thats the intangibles Henry has.  4th quarter is his and he could add an extra 2-3 wins to their schedule

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3 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

With respect to Henry's intangibles there's his rare combination of size & deceptive speed. He's a very physical presence, wears a defense down, a grinder. I've read that he's a "a dogged worker, and a natural leader." Which of course goes to his mindset & approach to the game. Here's what Titans running backs coach Sylvester Croom is quoted as saying:

 

 

 

I get that (Henry size), but his college tape isn't near as eye-popping as Mixon's. In fact almost every RB that has come out of Alabama since Saban's been there looked good in college so that has to be taken with a grain of salt. Its easy to compare Mixon to AP because they both went to OU. But he truly does have that same always going forward, get out of my way, great vision running style, along with breakaway speed. You mentioned Mixon being in the I-formation a lot. If he goes to a team that doesn't get cute with a bunch of shotgun, I'm leaning that way. Murray is still a great back too and only slowed down last season due to a toe injury.

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13 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

I've watched Mixon, he reminds me of Melvin Gordon.

Interesting comp. I didnt really think mixon reminded me of gordon when watching his tape recently. I went back to my notes just to check, and as high as it may be, my comp for his potential was leveon bell. I put a * on the game vs texas tech at 4th qrtr 12:55.  It wasnt a hugr run, but the patience screamed bell too me. I agree with most of your takes on his power, elusiveness, speed and receiving. Also showed some admirable blocking skills, also visible in the texas tech game. Aside from mcaffery i think he was the most natural paas catching RB i watched. I did think at time his vision couldve gotten him a few more yards(1st qrtr vs WVU 4:05 goal line), but its still great none-the-less.

 

At this point, if mixon lands somewhere with a potential starting role id take him ovet Henry this year.

Edited by vikingapocalypse
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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yes, cause Henry can drain the clock in the 4th quarter like Blount dud for NE.

 

Murray boosts his stats woth long runs from a good OL but cant drainn the clock and move the chains.

 

Blind statz are irrelevant. Murray could run for 2000 yards but if he isnt getting short yardage first downs and punching it in from the goaline then the Titans will never make the playoffs.

 

Murray had 9 Tds?  Bloubt had 12 or more in a limited role becaise he would get carries to finish teams off in the 4th quarter.

 

Thats the intangibles Henry has.  4th quarter is his and he could add an extra 2-3 wins to their schedule

 

Obvious troll is obvious.

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yes, cause Henry can drain the clock in the 4th quarter like Blount dud for NE.

 

Murray boosts his stats woth long runs from a good OL but cant drainn the clock and move the chains.

 

Blind statz are irrelevant. Murray could run for 2000 yards but if he isnt getting short yardage first downs and punching it in from the goaline then the Titans will never make the playoffs.

 

Murray had 9 Tds?  Bloubt had 12 or more in a limited role becaise he would get carries to finish teams off in the 4th quarter.

 

Thats the intangibles Henry has.  4th quarter is his and he could add an extra 2-3 wins to their schedule

 

Monday Happy Hour huh? Might want to slow down a bit. Also there's an "edit" feature.

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8 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yes, cause Henry can drain the clock in the 4th quarter like Blount dud for NE.

 

Murray boosts his stats woth long runs from a good OL but cant drainn the clock and move the chains.

 

Blind statz are irrelevant. Murray could run for 2000 yards but if he isnt getting short yardage first downs and punching it in from the goaline then the Titans will never make the playoffs.

 

Murray had 9 Tds?  Bloubt had 12 or more in a limited role becaise he would get carries to finish teams off in the 4th quarter.

 

Thats the intangibles Henry has.  4th quarter is his and he could add an extra 2-3 wins to their schedule

7 of murrays 9 rushing TDs came under 5 yards. All 3 of his receiving tds came under 3 yards. Even in 2014 when he was used in a similar way with the boys, 9 of his 13 TDs came from under 3 yards. Short yardage and goal line look pretty decent to me.

What would you classify as "long runs?" Murray only had 4 20+ yard runs, blount had 7. Blount also has 69 runs of 0 or negative yardage,  to murrays 57. Seems like blount had the more inflating stats yardage wise. 

Blounts 18 td season was also an outlier, as he has never surpassed 7 in his career otherwise

Titan rushed for 136 yards a game on average, good for 3rd in the league. The running game isnt what kept them out of the playoffs. I think the 20th ranked defense and lack of passing weapons is better reasoning.

Edited by vikingapocalypse
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9 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Murray boosts his stats woth long runs from a good OL

Care to elaborate on this? I watched every Titans game last year, and outside of his 75 yard TD scamper against GB, he really didn't have a lot of long runs. He was a grinder, consistently churning out 4, 5, 6 yards and wearing down opposing defenses.

 

Do you have anything to back your claims up at all? Because I really can't think of that many long, like 20+ yard runs that would "boost his stats". I think you're a bit off base here.

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12 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Doest always get short yardage first downs, not a bruiser for GL situations, has a hard time draining the clock out to seal the victory.

 

Murray last year had some amazing runs but not a lot of pound it runs. He had several scampers over 40 yards thanks to that OL. That boosts hos rushing yardage up so he has nice stats. 

 

Yes, cause Henry can drain the clock in the 4th quarter like Blount dud for NE.

 

Murray boosts his stats woth long runs from a good OL but cant drainn the clock and move the chains.

 

Blind statz are irrelevant. Murray could run for 2000 yards but if he isnt getting short yardage first downs and punching it in from the goaline then the Titans will never make the playoffs.

 

You'll full of ****.

 

Here's what I did, I created a spreadsheet, that has every single run D.Murray and D.Henry completed for the 2016 season.

 

Claim #1: Doesn't get short yardage first downs

Murray had exactly 30 runs with 1 to go.

Of those 30 runs, he had negative yardage just 3 times.

0 yards 4 times.

1+ yards for the other 23 times.  76% success rate with 1 to go.

 

Of those 23 runs, he averaged 5.5 yards per carry.

Of all 30 runs combined, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry.

 

Murray had 14 runs with 2 to go.

Of those 14 runs, he had negative yardage just 1 time.

0 yards 2 times, 1 yard 2 times.

2+ yards for the other 9 times.  64% success rate with 2 to go.

 

Of those 9 runs, he averaged 8.4 yards per carry.

Of all 14 runs combined, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry.

 

Murray had 82 rushes with 5 or less to go.  On those 82 attempts, he averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

 

Claim #2: Murray had several scampers of 40+

Two.  He had 2.

If you remove both of those runs, he's still averaging 4 YPC.

 

Claim #3: Murray can't drain the clock in the 4th quarter.

Murray had 68 runs in the 4th quarter, and averaged 3.5 YPC on those runs.

Of these 68 runs, he had 0 or negative yardage 14 times, just 20%. (Positive yardage 80% of the time he carried the ball in the 4th quarter)

8 of these 14 runs, came on first downs.

 

Claim #4: Murray can't punch it in at the goal line.

4 of Murray's 9 Tds came from the 1 yard line.

3 came from 2-5 yards out.

The final 2 were runs of 14, and 76.

 

Claim #5: Murray isn't getting short yardage first downs.

Murray had only 2 4th down runs, both with 1 to go.  He converted 1, failed one.

Murray had 23 3rd down runs, 22 of which were 3 or less to convert.

Of those 22 runs of 3rd and 1, 2 or, 3 he converted 16 of them. 73% success rate.

 

Claim #6: Blount was in a limited role.

Blount touched the ball 306 times last year.  There are only 5 backs in the league who had more than that.

 

And for giggles...

D.Murray ran the ball 293 times.  He had 0 or negative yards 15 times. (5%)

D.Henry ran the ball 110 times.  He had 0 or negative yards 16 times. (14%)

 

D.Henry had 25 runs in the 4th quarter, and averaged 2.6 YPC on those runs.

Of those 25 runs, he had 0 or negative yardage 5 times, the same 20% as Murray above. (Claim 3)

D.Henry had only 7 runs, of 3rd and 3 or less to convert.

Of those 7 runs of 3rd and 1, 2, or 3 he converted 4 of them.  57% success rate.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

And for giggles...

D.Murray ran the ball 293 times.  He had 0 or negative yards 15 times. (5%)

D.Henry ran the ball 110 times.  He had 0 or negative yards 16 times. (14%)

I believe demarco had much more then 15 no gain or negative plays. By my count i believe it was 59 (20% ish) according to PFR. I wonder if maybe you meant in the 4th quarter or something along those lines. But agree with this, i posted something similar, but i think i may have said 57(oops). Either way the claims made were way off base and most of the comments reek of being biased.

 

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12 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

"Interesting comp. I didnt really think mixon reminded me of gordon when watching his tape recently. I went back to my notes just to check, and as high as it may be, my comp for his potential was leveon bell. I put a * on the game vs texas tech at 4th qrtr 12:55.  It wasnt a huge run, but the patience screamed bell too me. I agree with most of your takes on his power, elusiveness, speed and receiving. Also showed some admirable blocking skills, also visible in the texas tech game. Aside from mcaffery i think he was the most natural paas catching RB i watched. I did think at time his vision couldve gotten him a few more yards (1st qrtr vs WVU 4:05 goal line), but its still great none-the-less. At this point, if mixon lands somewhere with a potential starting role id take him over Henry this year."

 

Well, it was in fact that Texas Tech game that had me seeing Gordon. Both can create, set up & find space and each has the acceleration to then crack the seam. What really impressed me about Mixon is his sense of the pursuit. Knows when to get low and get down. I don't know about early on, but he's a 20+ touch RB at the next level.

 

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4 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Well, it was in fact that Texas Tech game that had me seeing Gordon. Both can create, set up & find space and each has the acceleration to then crack the seam. What really impressed me about Mixon is his sense of the pursuit. Knows when to get low and get down. I don't know about early on, but he's a 20+ touch RB at the next level.

 

That game vs texas tech was great. He showed alot of potential and versatility. Definitely confident in seeing production at the next level.

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4 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Here's what I did, I created a spreadsheet, that has every single run D.Murray and D.Henry completed for the 2016 season.

 

First of all, love all the effort.  Where can I get all your spreadsheets?  You may have covered this with me already and if so I apologize.

 

Second of all, I feel as if a child got an algebra problem wrong and you dove into the differential equation textbook to show that to him.  Personally, as a neutral observer, I love getting into the calculus.  I'm not sure it will have the same impact on the OP though!

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8 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

You'll full of ****.

 

Here's what I did, I created a spreadsheet, that has every single run D.Murray and D.Henry completed for the 2016 season.

 

Claim #1: Doesn't get short yardage first downs

Murray had exactly 30 runs with 1 to go.

Of those 30 runs, he had negative yardage just 3 times.

0 yards 4 times.

1+ yards for the other 23 times.  76% success rate with 1 to go.

 

Of those 23 runs, he averaged 5.5 yards per carry.

Of all 30 runs combined, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry.

 

Murray had 14 runs with 2 to go.

Of those 14 runs, he had negative yardage just 1 time.

0 yards 2 times, 1 yard 2 times.

2+ yards for the other 9 times.  64% success rate with 2 to go.

 

Of those 9 runs, he averaged 8.4 yards per carry.

Of all 14 runs combined, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry.

 

Murray had 82 rushes with 5 or less to go.  On those 82 attempts, he averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

 

Claim #2: Murray had several scampers of 40+

Two.  He had 2.

If you remove both of those runs, he's still averaging 4 YPC.

 

Claim #3: Murray can't drain the clock in the 4th quarter.

Murray had 68 runs in the 4th quarter, and averaged 3.5 YPC on those runs.

Of these 68 runs, he had 0 or negative yardage 14 times, just 20%. (Positive yardage 80% of the time he carried the ball in the 4th quarter)

8 of these 14 runs, came on first downs.

 

Claim #4: Murray can't punch it in at the goal line.

4 of Murray's 9 Tds came from the 1 yard line.

3 came from 2-5 yards out.

The final 2 were runs of 14, and 76.

 

Claim #5: Murray isn't getting short yardage first downs.

Murray had only 2 4th down runs, both with 1 to go.  He converted 1, failed one.

Murray had 23 3rd down runs, 22 of which were 3 or less to convert.

Of those 22 runs of 3rd and 1, 2 or, 3 he converted 16 of them. 73% success rate.

 

Claim #6: Blount was in a limited role.

Blount touched the ball 306 times last year.  There are only 5 backs in the league who had more than that.

 

And for giggles...

D.Murray ran the ball 293 times.  He had 0 or negative yards 15 times. (5%)

D.Henry ran the ball 110 times.  He had 0 or negative yards 16 times. (14%)

 

D.Henry had 25 runs in the 4th quarter, and averaged 2.6 YPC on those runs.

Of those 25 runs, he had 0 or negative yardage 5 times, the same 20% as Murray above. (Claim 3)

D.Henry had only 7 runs, of 3rd and 3 or less to convert.

Of those 7 runs of 3rd and 1, 2, or 3 he converted 4 of them.  57% success rate.

 

 

I dont see murrays 3rd down conversion rate.

 

Did i miss it in the novel you posted?

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

I dont see murrays 3rd down conversion rate.

 

Did i miss it in the novel you posted?

 

I think he covered it in Claim #5... ?

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