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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

You are exactly right. Henry will have stand alone weekly value as a flex and is a high end RB1 when Demarco gets hurt.

 

Definite value to Henry in rounds 6-8 versus some WR2 you might get.

 

Not if he's getting fewer than 10 carries/game. 

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10 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

 He will not get fewer than 10 carries a game so your argument has neither hands nor feet.

 

He will as long as Murray is healthy. How long that lasts, who knows. 

 

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32 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

He will as long as Murray is healthy. How long that lasts, who knows. 

 

 

Nope, even when demarco is healthy the Titans will use derrick henry.

 

They need more than 1 rushing TD in the 4th quarter and better than a 3.3 ypc on the opponents half of the field.

 

Thats why derrick will have 10 touches or more per game till demarco goes down.

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6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

"You are exactly right. Henry will have stand alone weekly value as a flex and is a high end RB1 when Demarco gets hurt. Definite value to Henry in rounds 6-8 versus some WR2 you might get."

 

 

Any of the said scenarios could play out, but a number of us believe a lot of those favor Henry. He missed day one of voluntary practices, which hopefully will bump down his adp some. That site's algorithm is what placed him up there so high, but he's been slowly coming back down.   

 

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  • 1 month later...

Looks like it's turning into a RBBC in Tennessee.

Henry is a must handcuff to Murray.

 

Source: TitansOnline.com - Jim Wyatt

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry has looked great in OTAs, according to head coach Mike Mularkey, and offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie said he will find a way to use both Henry and RB DeMarco Murray.

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10 hours ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Looks like it's turning into a RBBC in Tennessee.

Henry is a must handcuff to Murray.

 

Source: TitansOnline.com - Jim Wyatt

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry has looked great in OTAs, according to head coach Mike Mularkey, and offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie said he will find a way to use both Henry and RB DeMarco Murray.

Must handcuff or must avoid situation all-together because they will eat into one another's production?

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On Sat Jun 03 2017 at 8:41 PM, theSPANKER said:

Must handcuff or must avoid situation all-together because they will eat into one another's production?

 

They will certainly eat into each others value.

 

The value in this situation, to me, is that you can get derrick henry in the 8th or 9th round and he can be trade bait all season and if something did happen to murray then Henry would be a RB1.

 

RBs are so valuable that id rather take henry in the 8th or 9th vs some WR2 or wr3.

 

Demarco has shown signs of wearing down in the 2nd half of the season and his age is a factor so derrick could be a RB2 or weekly flex play even without murray getting injured starting around week 8.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

They will certainly eat into each others value.

 

The value in this situation, to me, is that you can get derrick henry in the 8th or 9th round and he can be trade bait all season and if something did happen to murray then Henry would be a RB1.

 

RBs are so valuable that id rather take henry in the 8th or 9th vs some WR2 or wr3.

 

Demarco has shown signs of wearing down in the 2nd half of the season and his age is a factor so derrick could be a RB2 or weekly flex play even without murray getting injured starting around week 8.

 

 

Agree with everything here except I have serious doubts you'll be able to get Henry in the 8th or 9th in more competitive leagues later in the draft season.

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8 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

6th round adp for a backup RB?  I'll pass.

I agree.  Sharks know about the potential of Henry and what he's capable of.  

He won't last until the 8th therein lies the problem.  If you select Murray then you're reaching for Henry.  

If you don't get Henry, then you've most likely taken on uncompensated risk (higher than normal) for your 2nd round draft pick.

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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

I agree.  Sharks know about the potential of Henry and what he's capable of.  

He won't last until the 8th therein lies the problem.  If you select Murray then you're reaching for Henry.  

If you don't get Henry, then you've most likely taken on uncompensated risk (higher than normal) for your 2nd round draft pick.

 

What position are you usually picking in the 6th round?

 

WR2? 

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

6th round adp for a backup RB?  I'll pass.

 

The best backup RB in the league behind a 30 year old injury prone RB and a top 10 OL.

 

Henry will have stand alone RB2/Flex appeal every week during the 2nd half of the season.

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6 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

The best backup RB in the league behind a 30 year old injury prone RB and a top 10 OL.

 

Henry will have stand alone RB2/Flex appeal every week during the 2nd half of the season.

Past 3 seasons murray has played every single game except for 1

Its fun to make bold statements now but without an injury to demarco theres no way Henry provides rb2 value 2nd half of the season.

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23 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What position are you usually picking in the 6th round?

 

WR2? 

Starting RB's.  Even Tyler Eifert.

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29 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Past 3 seasons murray has played every single game except for 1

Its fun to make bold statements now but without an injury to demarco theres no way Henry provides rb2 value 2nd half of the season.

 

Playing games and being effective are 2 different things. Demarco had a sprained toe last year and Henry did well in the 2nd half of the season.

 

Murray fades in 2nd half of games and the 2nd half of the season.

 

Coaches already heaping praise on Henry for how good he looks, work ethic, etc...

 

Its my belief that Henry proves himself to valuable to keep off the field so i think you will see Henry poubd defenses in the 2nd half of games in the 2nd half of the season returning RB2/flex numbers and that is even with murray healthy.

 

If murray gets hurt the sky is the limit for Henry.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yeah, i guess that is a strategy. I dont always adhere to it but i generally like to go RB, RB, WR for my first 3 but those can vary depending on where i am at in the draft order

I meant RB's that actually start in the NFL.  Ameer Abdullah, Bilal Powell, possibly Blount and Gilislee.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Titans 2016 Rushing Stats:

- 476 rush attempts, 29.8 per game -- Murray 193 (18.3 per game, 61% share), Henry 110 in 14 games (7.8 per game, 26% share)

- YPC: Murray 4.4, Henry 4.5

- 504 pass attempts, 28th in the league.

 

2017 Projections

- Estimate bump to 535 pass attempts (addition of Davis and Decker, natural progression of Mariota).  Did you know Atlanta only threw it 537 times last year?

- Slight decrease in total carries to 460, or 28.8 per game.

- I'll give 60% to Murray and an increase from 26% to 35% to Henry (who even takes the extra 5%?  Honest question, don't know the depth chart).  This is 10 carries per game for Henry, up from 7.8.  Passes the smell test.

- I expect they will both be more efficient running the ball, thanks to the WRs keeping the defense honest.  Call it 4.5 YPC for Murray and 4.7 for Henry.  

 

This would take Henry to 160 attempts on the year, 750 yards, and add in a bump in receiving to 20 recs for 200 yards (he had 13 recs for 130 last year), he's getting really close to 1,000 total yards on the year.

 

Now how do you project TDs?  He had 5 rushing and 0 receiving last year.  Can we safely assume 6 and 1 this year, or 7 and 0?  I think we can.  The comp I always fall back on is Tevin Coleman last year.  He was one of the rare Real Life RB2-Handcuffs that also turns in a Fantasy RB2 performance.  And I wonder ... if Coleman -- an uber talented back in a great offensive situation -- can provide 940 total yards and 11 TDs, then why can't Henry (a similarly talented back in a similarly great offensive situation) provide 950 and 7?

 

I feel really comfortable giving Henry 180 total touches for 950 total  yards and 7 total touchdowns.  This is 8.4 standard fantasy points per game.

 

Those are my projections assuming Murray is healthy, and I invite everyone to poke holes in it.

 

Now, here's the point I think I am trying to make: from the 6th/7th round, 950 yards and 7 TDs is fair value.  The conventional wisdom is that he's an overpriced handcuff.  But I believe he offers fairly priced standalone value in the 6th round, where guys like Cook, Coleman, Perkins, and Powell are going.

 

Compare him to Abdullah and Gore who are going a little bit before.  Assuming everything goes right for them this year, they will be right on the border of 1,000 yards rushing.  They'll have more total yards than Henry when you factor in receiving, but their TD upside is lower than Henry's I think.  Henry should provide roughly the same (albeit probably slightly less) output as the last drafted RB1s, even as the RB2 on his own team.  Again, this feels fair to me.  And Henry doesn't have the injury risk those guys have.

 

Repeat: I really think people are overlooking the fact that Henry appears likely to provide fair, standalone value from the 6th or 7th round.  They're writing him off as an expensive handcuff.

 

Now factor in the league winning upside if 29 year old Murray goes down.  It's like going to the store to buy a gallon of milk at market price, and getting a free scratch off lottery ticket with it.  Just a nice little bit of added upside to an otherwise fair purchase.

 

I never thought I'd warm up to Henry in the 6th round, but when you look at the numbers, it actually doesn't seem so bad. 

 

Thoughts?

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6 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Titans 2016 Rushing Stats:

- 476 rush attempts, 29.8 per game -- Murray 193 (18.3 per game, 61% share), Henry 110 in 14 games (7.8 per game, 26% share)

- YPC: Murray 4.4, Henry 4.5

- 504 pass attempts, 28th in the league.

 

2017 Projections

- Estimate bump to 535 pass attempts (addition of Davis and Decker, natural progression of Mariota).  Did you know Atlanta only threw it 537 times last year?

- Slight decrease in total carries to 460, or 28.8 per game.

- I'll give 60% to Murray and an increase from 26% to 35% to Henry (who even takes the extra 5%?  Honest question, don't know the depth chart).  This is 10 carries per game for Henry, up from 7.8.  Passes the smell test.

- I expect they will both be more efficient running the ball, thanks to the WRs keeping the defense honest.  Call it 4.5 YPC for Murray and 4.7 for Henry.  

 

This would take Henry to 160 attempts on the year, 750 yards, and add in a bump in receiving to 20 recs for 200 yards (he had 13 recs for 130 last year), he's getting really close to 1,000 total yards on the year.

 

Now how do you project TDs?  He had 5 rushing and 0 receiving last year.  Can we safely assume 6 and 1 this year, or 7 and 0?  I think we can.  The comp I always fall back on is Tevin Coleman last year.  He was one of the rare Real Life RB2-Handcuffs that also turns in a Fantasy RB2 performance.  And I wonder ... if Coleman -- an uber talented back in a great offensive situation -- can provide 940 total yards and 11 TDs, then why can't Henry (a similarly talented back in a similarly great offensive situation) provide 950 and 7?

 

I feel really comfortable giving Henry 180 total touches for 950 total  yards and 7 total touchdowns.  This is 8.4 standard fantasy points per game.

 

Those are my projections assuming Murray is healthy, and I invite everyone to poke holes in it.

 

Now, here's the point I think I am trying to make: from the 6th/7th round, 950 yards and 7 TDs is fair value.  The conventional wisdom is that he's an overpriced handcuff.  But I believe he offers fairly priced standalone value in the 6th round, where guys like Cook, Coleman, Perkins, and Powell are going.

 

Compare him to Abdullah and Gore who are going a little bit before.  Assuming everything goes right for them this year, they will be right on the border of 1,000 yards rushing.  They'll have more total yards than Henry when you factor in receiving, but their TD upside is lower than Henry's I think.  Henry should provide roughly the same (albeit probably slightly less) output as the last drafted RB1s, even as the RB2 on his own team.  Again, this feels fair to me.  And Henry doesn't have the injury risk those guys have.

 

Repeat: I really think people are overlooking the fact that Henry appears likely to provide fair, standalone value from the 6th or 7th round.  They're writing him off as an expensive handcuff.

 

Now factor in the league winning upside if 29 year old Murray goes down.  It's like going to the store to buy a gallon of milk at market price, and getting a free scratch off lottery ticket with it.  Just a nice little bit of added upside to an otherwise fair purchase.

 

I never thought I'd warm up to Henry in the 6th round, but when you look at the numbers, it actually doesn't seem so bad. 

 

Thoughts?

 

The other rushing attempts would be from MM8.  Make sure those are factored in somewhere.

 

No guarantee they total plays remains flat although that's a fair assumption at the moment.   Could be that total plays go up if the Titans have a lead in most games which would allow for an increase in pass plays while running plays remain flat.

 

Anyway, I agree that I'd have him ahead of those RBs you listed atm (although Powell and Cook could change my mind in pre-season) and there's definitely league winning upside if DeMarco goes down.  I'd gladly take him in the 6th or 7th.  Problem is he may have a 5th round adp...

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