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Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook


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15 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

The other rushing attempts would be from MM8.  Make sure those are factored in somewhere.

 

They are.

 

15 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

I'd gladly take him in the 6th or 7th.  Problem is he may have a 5th round adp...

 

Yup.  5th is definitely too rich for my blood.  I don't understand how it's even possible that people are taking him that early.

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37 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

I feel really comfortable giving Henry 180 total touches for 950 total  yards and 7 total touchdowns.  This is 8.4 standard fantasy points per game.

 

While I'm not as comfortable as you, I am hopeful. Obviously the talent is there, and I expect if Henry can get those 10 touches per game he'll make the most of them (while blowing our minds). He only hit double-digit touches 4 times last season; for the reasons you state, added with 96mnc's implication that the Titans will be leading often and therefore running more, I like Henry's prospect for increased touches. I have him as a Round 7 keeper, not amazing there but a solid value. Still have 6 weeks to decide whether I keep Henry at 7 or Landon Collins at round 20 (a far better value in an IDP league), and I'm leaning Henry, again for the reasons you point out. Whether I pull a reversal-cuff and choose DMurray, I'm still not sure. In this league, I'd be picking at 2.06, and I'd consider DMurray there but not at my 1.07.

 

25 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

Problem is he may have a 5th round adp...

 

Yeah, in redraft I don't think I'll land Henry because of this (and whatever other hype that happens in the next month). I would expect to see him go in Round 5, and for those who take Murray in 1/2, we might even see Henry go in late 4 (which is crazy). I'd sooner go Gore in 5, though considering how leaguemates worry about his age I think I can land Gore in 6 again (best value I found last year). On my dynasty team, Henry sits and bides his time. I give it two years before he becomes the RB1 supernaut: in 2020, Murray's contract expires and Henry breaks from his chrysalis.

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1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

While I'm not as comfortable as you, I am hopeful. Obviously the talent is there, and I expect if Henry can get those 10 touches per game he'll make the most of them (while blowing our minds). He only hit double-digit touches 4 times last season; for the reasons you state, added with 96mnc's implication that the Titans will be leading often and therefore running more, I like Henry's prospect for increased touches. I have him as a Round 7 keeper, not amazing there but a solid value. Still have 6 weeks to decide whether I keep Henry at 7 or Landon Collins at round 20 (a far better value in an IDP league), and I'm leaning Henry, again for the reasons you point out. Whether I pull a reversal-cuff and choose DMurray, I'm still not sure. In this league, I'd be picking at 2.06, and I'd consider DMurray there but not at my 1.07.

 

 

Yeah, in redraft I don't think I'll land Henry because of this (and whatever other hype that happens in the next month). I would expect to see him go in Round 5, and for those who take Murray in 1/2, we might even see Henry go in late 4 (which is crazy). I'd sooner go Gore in 5, though considering how leaguemates worry about his age I think I can land Gore in 6 again (best value I found last year). On my dynasty team, Henry sits and bides his time. I give it two years before he becomes the RB1 supernaut: in 2020, Murray's contract expires and Henry breaks from his chrysalis.

 

Henry will be the starter for the Titans in 2018, no doubt.

 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

They are.

 

 

Yup.  5th is definitely too rich for my blood.  I don't understand how it's even possible that people are taking him that early.

 

Because (and i am not justifying taking him that early) Henry will have stand alone value this year as a flex player and IF Murray goes down then Henry will be a high end RB1.

 

A risky move for sure but could pay HUGE dividends.

 

If i could get Henry in round 8 or 9 id be ecstatic 

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30 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Henry will be the starter for the Titans in 2018, no doubt.

 

 

While I am also high on Henry's talent, the obstacle remains: Murray. So, I do see doubt for 2018, IF DMurray 1) does not get injured in 2017, and 2) has a 2017 season similar to last year: 1287 yards rushing / 9 TDs, 377 yards receiving / 3 TDs. It's not just numbers: Murray ran very well and in the 16 games he played as a 28-year old showed no signs of slowing down

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10 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

While I am also high on Henry's talent, the obstacle remains: Murray. So, I do see doubt for 2018, IF DMurray 1) does not get injured in 2017, and 2) has a 2017 season similar to last year: 1287 yards rushing / 9 TDs, 377 yards receiving / 3 TDs. It's not just numbers: Murray ran very well and in the 16 games he played as a 28-year old showed no signs of slowing down

 

Murray has no guaranteed money after this year.

 

They gonna resign murray at 3p years old for more than they are paying derrick Henry when there is no talent gap between Henry and Murray?

 

Give Henry Murrays touches and he will outproduce him so why keep an old overpriced guy with mo guaranteed money while the younger guy is cheaper and better?

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5 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

A handcuff in the 7th-8th round? I'll pass. 

 

With all the hype he's been getting, if Murray hypothetically were to suffer a season ending injury in training camp, would anyone be willing to draft Henry in the 1st rd of PPR or standard leagues?

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

With all the hype he's been getting, if Murray hypothetically were to suffer a season ending injury in training camp, would anyone be willing to draft Henry in the 1st rd of PPR or standard leagues?

 

In standard leagues definitely. Maybe the second in a ppr league. They have a good o-line, good team, he's used in the receiving game (or did last season), has no other competition for touches besides Murray and should see the red zone a bunch. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

With all the hype he's been getting, if Murray hypothetically were to suffer a season ending injury in training camp, would anyone be willing to draft Henry in the 1st rd of PPR or standard leagues?

 

He'd instantly become my #4 back in standard.  Ppr top 10, probably #6.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Latest blurb sounds good. Beat reporters saying Henry is taking big strides this offseason, looks more confident and comfortable.

 

ADP of round 7 so far, not terribly bad for a guy who can provide stand alone flex value and if something did happen to Demarco would have RB1 potential.

 

Wont be able to keep this beast on the sideline much longer, guaranteed money be damned.

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Better grab him now in dynasty leagues.  I traded for him right before our rookie draft a couple weekends ago.  Gave the owner a 2018 1st and Pick 9 in this years draft for Henry and Pick 11.  He wanted to guarantee he was able to get Mahomes(two QB league) and I ended up still getting the guy that I was going to take at 9 with the 11th pick in Perine.

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

I havent seen this much hope for a #2 rb to take the lead from a pro bowl workhorse since cj spiller  vs fred jackson at Buffalo

Probably because it's so easy to see Henry's immense upside, and these type of situations don't occur often. You don't normally see a team acquire a pro bowl caliber starting RB, then subsequently draft a Hiesman trophy winning RB in round 2. Obviously people are anxious to see what Henry could do as a featured back, and for good reason.

 

And I don't think "hope" is the right word. I think most people expect Henry to take over as the lead back. All we need is just a little patience....

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19 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Better grab him now in dynasty leagues.  I traded for him right before our rookie draft a couple weekends ago.  Gave the owner a 2018 1st and Pick 9 in this years draft for Henry and Pick 11.  He wanted to guarantee he was able to get Mahomes(two QB league) and I ended up still getting the guy that I was going to take at 9 with the 11th pick in Perine.

 

Will be easier to get him in season (i.e. weeks 4-6) once Murray starts off the season well. Henry truthers act as though they can will Murray into a season-ending injury with their enthusiasm. 

 

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5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Henry truthers act as though they can will Murray into a season-ending injury with their enthusiasm. 

 

If we all post enough comments in this thread DMurray will just have to get hurt---has to---and if our commentary is sharp enough it'll knock Murray out for the season, so keep posting this viscous circle bound to cut Murray down

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On 6/30/2017 at 11:15 AM, Lord_Varys said:

5th is definitely too rich for my blood.  I don't understand how it's even possible that people are taking him that early.

It's a big gamble, but the season changing type. There are plenty of quality starters to be had in round 5, but none that offer the season changing upside of Derrick Henry. I mean, if I'm looking at guys like Donte Mocrief, Frank Gore, etc, I might be willing to gamble on Henry at that point.

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On 6/30/2017 at 11:15 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

They are.

 

 

Yup.  5th is definitely too rich for my blood.  I don't understand how it's even possible that people are taking him that early.

 

It's harder in snake drafts, but in Auctions, I'll gladly pay for the whole backfield.  

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Will be easier to get him in season (i.e. weeks 4-6) once Murray starts off the season well. Henry truthers act as though they can will Murray into a season-ending injury with their enthusiasm. 

 

 

I have Demarco as well, which is another reason I went ahead and made the move.

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

Pretty important detail ?

 

In that case, it's a no-brainer.

 

Yup.  Had another guy offer me Paxton Lynch, Hyde, John Ross and a 2018 2nd Rounder for the duo last week.  I felt like it was a solid offer, but I just couldn't pull the trigger.  Every one of those players has question marks to me.  I know what I have, both in the short-term and long, in the Titans backfield.

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2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yup.  Had another guy offer me Paxton Lynch, Hyde, John Ross and a 2018 2nd Rounder for the duo last week.  I felt like it was a solid offer, but I just couldn't pull the trigger.  Every one of those players has question marks to me.  I know what I have, both in the short-term and long, in the Titans backfield.

 

You'll only be thanking yourself for not making that trade.

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