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Aaron Rodgers 2017 Season Outlook


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2 hours ago, Nap Time said:

 

I do it because of injuries and also because I know there is a decent chance I'm wrong about my QB1.  Being wrong about QB is a fatal error.  But I always draft a second-tier QB1, never a top 3 superstar like Rodgers.  If I did that I might consider skipping the backup position.

 

Being wrong about your QB is only a fatal error if you draft him in the first three rounds.

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Just took Arod at start of 3rd and love it. The thing I still stand by while everyone's rbs are breaking their knees and feet week in and week out, pretty much 100% guaranteed that Rodgers is there getting me around 30 points every single week without fail and then higher overall chances for those monster 40+ point weeks.

I believe in having depth to cover yourself at rb and wr, but when we are in real time and weeks are kicking off and so many guys projected for their points are fluctuating, guys like Rodgers, Brees and Brady and about as steady and consistent as it gets. It's invaluable to me. Can't count how many times I been down 20 25 30 points with one of these titans left and they give me the win. 

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2 minutes ago, RogerGoodell said:

I say if you like a guy, draft him. If you worry about adp or whatever you'll end up missing out. 

Yea, so many combinations of players can win... There Is no reason to box oneself in to believing there's only one particular way. I just enjoy big names because they put up big points more consistently. Nobody can tell me they're excited when they're facing Rodgers, Brees or Brady if it has many other solid names. 

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I paired Rodgers & Gronk at the turn while taking DJ #1 overall in my 14 team league and am loving that trio.

 

26 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Yea, so many combinations of players can win... There Is no reason to box oneself in to believing there's only one particular way. I just enjoy big names because they put up big points more consistently. Nobody can tell me they're excited when they're facing Rodgers, Brees or Brady if it has many other solid names. 

Yeah and honestly I don't see how all these people are grabbing Rodgers so late, with an ADP of 20 on Yahoo you usually have to 'reach' to procure him. The guy is worth a second rounder imo, I know everyone is indoctrinated with the "don't take QB early" mantra, but sometimes they really can be more valuable than the second round RBs and WRs. And Rodgers is almost surely not going to bust sans an injury

Edited by atrium
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1 minute ago, atrium said:

I paired Rodgers & Gronk at the turn while taking DJ #1 overall in my 14 team league and am loving that trio.

 

Yeah and honestly I don't see how all these people are grabbing Rodgers so late, with an ADP of 20 on Yahoo you usually have to 'reach' to procure him. The guy is worth a second rounder imo, I know everyone is indoctrinated with the "don't take QB early mantra", but sometimes they really can be more valuable than the second round RBs and WRs. And Rodgers is almost surely not going to bust sans an injury

Exactly. And when you factor in how many round 1 2 and 3 players go down and the waiver wire action, if you grab some awesome pickups that become the season breakouts or surprises, then have big guns like Rodgers going... That's pure win. Because like we know with all the uncertainty going into the season for rbs and WRs, we know one thing... Brees, rodgers and Brady will be putting up their elite numbers every week and that never changes. 

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23 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Yea, so many combinations of players can win... There Is no reason to box oneself in to believing there's only one particular way. I just enjoy big names because they put up big points more consistently. Nobody can tell me they're excited when they're facing Rodgers, Brees or Brady if it has many other solid names. 

Exactly how I feel.  I got tired of being on the opposite end thinking I had a sure win locked up with only one of these QBs left to play on my opponents roster and like a lightning strike 5 or 6 TD torpedoes s sink my titanic.

Like you said, we want the consistency as well as those monster games .  Plus. there are going to be busts every year at other positions but barring injury these QBs are as bust proof as they come.  You can sleep well at night and not carry an extra QB all season that can be used as a lotto ticket elsewhere.   

 

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1 minute ago, theSPANKER said:

Exactly how I feel.  I got tired of being on the opposite end thinking I had a sure win locked up with only one of these QBs left to play on my opponents roster and like a lightning strike 5 or 6 TD torpedoes s sink my titanic.

Like you said, we want the consistency as well as those monster games .  Plus. there are going to be busts every year at other positions but barring injury these QBs are as bust proof as they come.  You can sleep well at night and not carry an extra QB all season that can be used as a lotto ticket elsewhere.   

 

Amen man. They're matchup proof for the most part, they can just turn games around where guys like Stafford and them, it seems when they're beat they're beat. Countless times Brees can be losing and come out in 2nd quarter and end with 450 yards and 5 tds.. That's huge, and that's not a rare case with him. I don't get why people just sleep so hard on  that type of fire power that is almost close to a sure bet. 

Weekly head to head especially, you need consistency. That is what wins... So I think its definitely a valuable thing to have consistency 

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Good points guys. I'm actually trying something new this year. I usually wait for a qb but so far in 2 leagues I've drafted Rodgers and Brady both in the 3rd round. I didnt like other options in that 3rd round so going for one of guys seemed like the right choice for me. Good luck to everyone else going this route.

 

Edit: I have a third draft coming up on wednesday and really tempted to pick up Kareem Hunt in that 3rd round. I managed to snag him in the 6th round in a 12man but that was before yahoo updated his adp. Someone talk me out of it? Lol.

Edited by Elcapitan
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I enjoy going into every weekend knowing Rodgers might put up 40 points.

 

I enjoy my opponent dreading the inevitable 3-4 TD game he puts up.

 

He makes your bad weeks winnable. He makes your best weeks potentially record breaking.

 

To me drafting him isn't about strategy, its about enjoyment.

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18 minutes ago, Elcapitan said:

Good points guys. I'm actually trying something new this year. I usually wait for a qb but so far in 2 leagues I've drafted Rodgers and Brady both in the 3rd round. I didnt like other options in that 3rd round so going for one of guys seemed like the right choice for me. Good luck to everyone else going this route.

 

Edit: I have a third draft coming up on wednesday and really tempted to pick up Kareem Hunt in that 3rd round. I managed to snag him in the 6th round in a 12man but that was before yahoo updated his adp. Someone talk me out of it? Lol.

Nothing wrong with Rodgers in the third he's a proven stud that winds up a top 5 QB every single season he plays (usually top two).  Playing in the Green Bay area I pretty much never see him last through the second round.

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6 hours ago, 10giz said:

I enjoy going into every weekend knowing Rodgers might put up 40 points.

 

I enjoy my opponent dreading the inevitable 3-4 TD game he puts up.

 

He makes your bad weeks winnable. He makes your best weeks potentially record breaking.

 

To me drafting him isn't about strategy, its about enjoyment.

Yea, I view Brady and Brees all in the same way. I personally find the way people view qbs in fantasy to be weird simply because they easily can win your weeks and also, they're FUN to watch!! 

Brees, Rodgers and Brady can always pull you out of a mess. I think it's funny how people believe that their drafting of rbs and WRs nonstop to eventually land an Andy Dalton or something is the key to winning when it's so far from the truth and because most of the time by week 4 a huge chunk of players are gone to injury so all that cute drafting people do is useless. 

But I'll tell you what isn't useless and what is a guarantee... Rodgers brees and Brady getting you freaking 30 to 40 a week almost, almost as a lock. Sure you can maybe stretch to get a Matty ice, but the elites can game change your week easily.. And I think it's nuts how people don't even want the most enjoyable qbs on their team to root for. 

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3 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

Yea, I view Brady and Brees all in the same way. I personally find the way people view qbs in fantasy to be weird simply because they easily can win your weeks and also, they're FUN to watch!! 

Brees, Rodgers and Brady can always pull you out of a mess. I think it's funny how people believe that their drafting of rbs and WRs nonstop to eventually land an Andy Dalton or something is the key to winning when it's so far from the truth and because most of the time by week 4 a huge chunk of players are gone to injury so all that cute drafting people do is useless. 

But I'll tell you what isn't useless and what is a guarantee... Rodgers brees and Brady getting you freaking 30 to 40 a week almost, almost as a lock. Sure you can maybe stretch to get a Matty ice, but the elites can game change your week easily.. And I think it's nuts how people don't even want the most enjoyable qbs on their team to root for. 

 

It's a really good draft strategy because it's been a proven strategy with lots of data to back it up.  When you see the amount of QBs that put up QB1 numbers in a season it makes you wonder why people would bother taking one so high.  I know it's not easy to pick the right QB every week but it's also not that incredibly hard.

 

There's nothing wrong with drafting Rodgers or Brady because they obviously score you consistent points but you still better have some good RBs and WRs because no QB is making up for those deficiencies.

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

It's a really good draft strategy because it's been a proven strategy with lots of data to back it up.  When you see the amount of QBs that put up QB1 numbers in a season it makes you wonder why people would bother taking one so high.  I know it's not easy to pick the right QB every week but it's also not that incredibly hard.

 

There's nothing wrong with drafting Rodgers or Brady because they obviously score you consistent points but you still better have some good RBs and WRs because no QB is making up for those deficiencies.

 

I don't normally take a QB early but there he was in my draft last night ... staring me right in the face in the THIRD ROUND. Good ole Aaron Rodgers. 

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

It's a really good draft strategy because it's been a proven strategy with lots of data to back it up.  When you see the amount of QBs that put up QB1 numbers in a season it makes you wonder why people would bother taking one so high.  I know it's not easy to pick the right QB every week but it's also not that incredibly hard.

 

There's nothing wrong with drafting Rodgers or Brady because they obviously score you consistent points but you still better have some good RBs and WRs because no QB is making up for those deficiencies.

It works, but do does any strategy. I've done them all in the close to 20 years I've played now and won with and without big name qbs, but I just don't find it as gospel as many want to make it seem by not drafting a QB.

And absolutely it's about having quality players in each spot. I personally find having a stud in each area as a foundation is plenty of firepower to build with. But fantasy is a marathon, not a sprint and there's so many names that pop up by even week 4, just landing one or two can alter a team significantly and add even more. But the constant in all of this is having a steady qb that is a lock for 30 to 40 almsot weekly based on league scoring. 

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People think getting all those players will guarantee top points amongst those positions but in real time, you have guys that are just having bad games, you have players getting hurt, you have so many variables that happen whereas sure on paper the idea behind getting a late qb because their numbers are "close" enough, just doesn't always work that way in real head 2 head time.

I totally understand the strategy behind that, totally. But so many of those guys and qbs fluctuate a ton of points and the elites are just so much more easier to count on for specific points.

Also not saying first or 2nd, but 3rd round I do believe it's viable. 

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3 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

It works, but do does any strategy. I've done them all in the close to 20 years I've played now and won with and without big name qbs, but I just don't find it as gospel as many want to make it seem by not drafting a QB.

And absolutely it's about having quality players in each spot. I personally find having a stud in each area as a foundation is plenty of firepower to build with. But fantasy is a marathon, not a sprint and there's so many names that pop up by even week 4, just landing one or two can alter a team significantly and add even more. But the constant in all of this is having a steady qb that is a lock for 30 to 40 almsot weekly based on league scoring. 

 

2 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

People think getting all those players will guarantee top points amongst those positions but in real time, you have guys that are just having bad games, you have players getting hurt, you have so many variables that happen whereas sure on paper the idea behind getting a late qb because their numbers are "close" enough, just doesn't always work that way in real head 2 head time.

I totally understand the strategy behind that, totally. But so many of those guys and qbs fluctuate a ton of points and the elites are just so much more easier to count on for specific points.

Also not saying first or 2nd, but 3rd round I do believe it's viable. 

 

Agreed.

 

There's way more variance at QB than is usually acknowledged. This is particularly true once you drop beyond the top shelf, but Rodgers is exceptional even among the elite QBs. Rodgers has finished in the Top-2 seven times in his nine seasons as a starter. There is no player in the entire league who is a more sure bet to give you elite production at his position, and it just happens to also be the highest scoring position in the league. I think Rodgers is a fantastic pick anywhere in the 20s in a standard league.

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3 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

People think getting all those players will guarantee top points amongst those positions but in real time, you have guys that are just having bad games, you have players getting hurt, you have so many variables that happen whereas sure on paper the idea behind getting a late qb because their numbers are "close" enough, just doesn't always work that way in real head 2 head time.

I totally understand the strategy behind that, totally. But so many of those guys and qbs fluctuate a ton of points and the elites are just so much more easier to count on for specific points.

Also not saying first or 2nd, but 3rd round I do believe it's viable. 

Yeah this is pretty true but you also have to watch out for the likes of Cam Newton and Andrew Luck that pop up and have amazing seasons and get drafted super high the next year... honestly (maybe it's the homer in me) Rodgers is straight up the only QB I'd take early.  He just does it pretty much every time, even Brees and Brady (especially with Edleman out for the season) just don't give me that same level of confidence... not even close in fact.

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I agree. Yea I just viewed it as this... How can missing "one" pick ruin a team when you're looking at literally week in and week out elite production, know what I mean ? Especially when you're able to still find that production elsewhere. 

5 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

Yeah this is pretty true but you also have to watch out for the likes of Cam Newton and Andrew Luck that pop up and have amazing seasons and get drafted super high the next year... honestly (maybe it's the homer in me) Rodgers is straight up the only QB I'd take early.  He just does it pretty much every time, even Brees and Brady (especially with Edleman out for the season) just don't give me that same level of confidence... not even close in fact.

I disagree on Brees and Brady, Brees is always close to Rodgers week in and out. He can bang you out 30 to 40 like nothing, and so many times ends with 3 to 5 tds..

But sure, there's always those names that pop up.. But it's a matter of landing them, whereas Rodgers and company you set it and forget it. 

Edited by Savatage79
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25 minutes ago, voxcausa said:

 

 

Agreed.

 

There's way more variance at QB than is usually acknowledged. This is particularly true once you drop beyond the top shelf, but Rodgers is exceptional even among the elite QBs. Rodgers has finished in the Top-2 seven times in his nine seasons as a starter. There is no player in the entire league who is a more sure bet to give you elite production at his position, and it just happens to also be the highest scoring position in the league. I think Rodgers is a fantastic pick anywhere in the 20s in a standard league.

 

This part doesn't make a difference since all the top QBs are the highest scoring in fantasy football.  People need to stop comparing the QB to other positions because it doesn't make a difference.

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

This part doesn't make a difference since all the top QBs are the highest scoring in fantasy football.  People need to stop comparing the QB to other positions because it doesn't make a difference.

They are but there's still a margin and h2h difference, like for instance cam had 319 in my league and Brees and Rodgers had 460 and 470. That's just monstrous for head to head especially. Now even when some guys still end close to 400, alot of times it's due to some huge stat pad games. Like their points might go 18 19 22 then 39 back to 21. And that 39 point game happens a few times a year to put their end stats not so far off from the elite.. But with Rodgers and Brees you're looking at 29 27 34 32 47 23 etc... Its a way more steady situation than lower tier qbs even if end stats on paper don't look that bad for lower tier qbs. It's a huge deal in h2h imho, maybe points leagues it's not and or 4pt td leagues. 

Edited by Savatage79
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37 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

This part doesn't make a difference since all the top QBs are the highest scoring in fantasy football.  People need to stop comparing the QB to other positions because it doesn't make a difference.

 

I don't think it's quite that simple. I've never done the work to verify this, but I think the distribution of results changes with the larger range of results that will be returned by QBs. Given that a dud from the QB position can still result in a single digit return, while a run-of-the-mill good game is 20+ points, the risk a player is accepting in starting an unreliable option at QB is huge. I think that reality is concealed by the fact that over the course of the season, the PPG curve from QBs ranked #1 to #24 doesn't look much different than other positions. I'm not going to belabor this point because I'm definitely not going to back it up, I'll just say I think it's worth the price to buy someone expensive like Rodgers/Brady rather than someone close to replacement level (or worse, streaming) because in a given week the deltas can be huge.

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