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Chris Devenski 2017 Outlook


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16 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

So yeah I think my "assumption" is better than you devil's advocate assumptions of "mechanics / different pitches".  Unless you can provide actual evidence that it is the changes you list instead of my "assumption".

 

Yeah I wasn't trying to start a debate because I really have no idea, just playing devil's avacado.  I realize plenty of failed starters go on to have great careers as relievers. 

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9 minutes ago, wily mo said:

it was pretty well documented that devenski's slider got better over the course of last season, wasn't it? i forget exactly where i read about it now, probably multiple places. but that's what we're talking about, probably. he always *threw* a slider i think but it went from a meh pitch to a good pitch from the first half to the second half

 

 

 

Again I'm attributing this to the move to the bullpen.  Again it's an assumption yes but that's what we do in fantasy sports lol.  As now you can just throw the piss out of the slider.  No holding back, no worry to save enough in the tank to go 6-7 IPs.  

 

But also there's very little data to compare as he only started 5 games last year / in his career.  But he's striking out over 50% of the batters he's faced.

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Just now, FouLLine said:

 

Again I'm attributing this to the move to the bullpen.  Again it's an assumption yes but that's what we do in fantasy sports lol.  As now you can just throw the piss out of the slider.  No holding back, no worry to save enough in the tank to go 6-7 IPs.  

 

 

that's not how i saw it described. he was pitching in relief in the first half too

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3 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Yeah I wasn't trying to start a debate because I really have no idea, just playing devil's avacado.  I realize plenty of failed starters go on to have great careers as relievers. 

 

I hear ya... I mean it could be anything but that's why I am fairly certain it was the move to the pen.  But again he only got 5 starts as an MLB pitcher.  But it's not like he was setting the world on fire as a 24 year old pitcher in AA the year before.  

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7 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Again I'm attributing this to the move to the bullpen.  Again it's an assumption yes but that's what we do in fantasy sports lol.  As now you can just throw the piss out of the slider.  No holding back, no worry to save enough in the tank to go 6-7 IPs.  

 

But also there's very little data to compare as he only started 5 games last year / in his career.  But he's striking out over 50% of the batters he's faced.

 

As I documented earlier in the thread, its more than that. He wasn't using his slider at all in his first stint as a starter last year, so it wasn't that it was ineffective then. He improved the pitch as a reliever over the course of the season and used it a lot more as it improved. Then he had an August spot start where he used the slider to great effective (5IP, 5Ks, 0 ER, 2 H, 0BB). Yes, the slider got better over last year, but I don't necessarily see the causal relationship between the pitch becoming effective and him being a reliever. Rather, I see a guy that developed a third pitch after his first starting stint and has used it to great effect in relief (and a spot start). Its entirely possible that he could not utilize the pitch as a starter to similar effect. We just don't know for sure.

 

TL;DR: We don't have the info to say today that the slider would be bad as a starter at this point. He clearly developed the pitch last season. Whether that would maintain its effectiveness as a future starter, we cannot know.

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(sighs, rolls up sleeves) fine i'll find the articles again

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/02/houston-astros-chris-devenski-good-spring-training-role-starter-bullpen-mlb

 

Quote

Across the course of his 2016 season, Devenski changed the shape of his slider to make it more effective against left-handed hitters, an evolution examined by Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs this week. That development makes Devenski a more viable option for the starting rotation.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/last-seasons-most-underrated-rookie/

 

Quote

As the season wore on, Devenski all but abandoned his curveball, replacing it with a sharper slider. (...) The slider gave Devenski a consistent third pitch. In the second half, he threw it 22% of the time. He threw his fastball 40% of the time. And he threw his changeup — this changeup — 32% of the time. (...) The slider is why the Astros are still thinking about Devenski as potentially becoming a starter.

 

 

 

 

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Just now, wily mo said:

 

that's not how i saw it described. he was pitching in relief in the first half too

 

True, but he was learning the relief role. 

 

Also (again small sample size) in 2016 his K-BB% as a RP (23.4%) nearly doubled from what it was as a SP (12.5%).  Some guys just take off in the RP role.  As they never were an RP before in their career.  Best pitcher in highschool, best pitcher on their travel team, best pitcher in college, best pitcher in rookie ball etc.  But finally they reach a point to where their stuff either isn't good enough or just mediocre out of the rotation.  A change then is needed (Andrew Miller and CJ Edwards are great examples though CJ Edwards I think was more of a durability issue rather than stuff issue).  I'd much rather have an arm in my organization be an elite RP than a mediocre SP.

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1 minute ago, oswald737 said:

 

As I documented earlier in the thread, its more than that. He wasn't using his slider at all in his first stint as a starter last year, so it wasn't that it was ineffective then. He improved the pitch as a reliever and used it a lot more as a reliever. Then he had an August spot start where he used the slider to great effective (5IP, 5Ks, 0 ER, 2 H, 0BB). Yes, the slider got better over last year, but I don't necessarily see the causal relationship between the pitch becoming effective and him being a reliever. Rather, I see a guy that developed a third pitch after his first starting stint and has used it to great effect in relief (and a spot start). Its enturely possible that he could not utilize the pitch as a starter to similar effect. We just don't know for sure.

 

Sure there's no way to know for sure.  But I certainly would say being in the bullpen allowed him to throw the slider at a much higher percent than he would have as a starter.  But his best pitch is supposed to be his change up.

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3 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Sure there's no way to know for sure.  But I certainly would say being in the bullpen allowed him to throw the slider at a much higher percent than he would have as a starter.  But his best pitch is supposed to be his change up.

 

Without question, right now, his change-up is super elite. Last year, his slider actually induced the highest SwStr% of all his pitches and looking at that monthly trendline suggests that the pitch improved in quality over the course of the year. Is that entirely driven by its use in relief or because he just got better at executing the pitch? Can't say, but right now, its hard to argue that Devenski doesn't have 2 + pitches and a +++ change-up.

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13 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Without question, right now, his change-up is super elite. Last year, his slider actually induced the highest SwStr% of all his pitches and looking at that monthly trendline suggests that the pitch improved in quality over the course of the year. Is that entirely driven by its use in relief or because he just got better at executing the pitch? Can't say, but right now, its hard to argue that Devenski doesn't have 2 + pitches and a +++ change-up.

 

I don't think anything is ever entirely driven by one factor.  

 

Taking a peak into pitch fx though his slider usage has more than doubled thus far into the season (from 12.9% to 23.2%).  But his changeup usage has also increased (from 31.4% to 42.7%).  He is throwing his change up more than his fastball right now (32.3%)!!  Crazy to think someone is throwing their fastball more than their changeup but he's got the league caught by storm on top of elite stuff right now.

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56 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

I don't think anything is ever entirely driven by one factor.  

 

Taking a peak into pitch fx though his slider usage has more than doubled thus far into the season (from 12.9% to 23.2%).  But his changeup usage has also increased (from 31.4% to 42.7%).  He is throwing his change up more than his fastball right now (32.3%)!!  Crazy to think someone is throwing their fastball more than their changeup but he's got the league caught by storm on top of elite stuff right now.

 

Had me until "more than doubled"

 

... and "Crazy to think someone is throwing their fastball more than their changeup"

 

:)

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