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Amari Cooper 2017 Season Outlook


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2 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

I simply make my projections and rank them based on the total number of points I think they will score. They go into a spreadsheet of players at the same projection, and then are just ranked with their number in their order from there. I have Julio lower than 99% of fantasy players but I still have him with an excellent stat line.

Then thats not "perform better at his price".   That's overall.  Just wanted to clarify.  

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

Then thats not "perform better at his price".   That's overall.  Just wanted to clarify.  

It sounds like both to me. I expect him to both outperform his ADP and rank 4th among wide receivers based on my projection and his current ADP. But you get what I am saying.

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Just now, Br0kenB said:

It sounds like both to me. I expect him to both outperform his ADP and rank 4th among wide receivers based on my projection and his current ADP. But you get what I am saying.

A list of best performers for the price (value)would likely look far different.   That's akin to profit or ROI( return on investment) 

 

vs overall expected pts is like total sales

 

guys like Abdullah and Snead (for example) would be up near the top of a value list but nowhere near it in ADP. 

 

Savvy? 

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38 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

A list of best performers for the price (value)would likely look far different.   That's akin to profit or ROI( return on investment) 

 

vs overall expected pts is like total sales

 

guys like Abdullah and Snead (for example) would be up near the top of a value list but nowhere near it in ADP. 

 

Savvy? 

Understood what you are saying, but not what I'm going for. I project Cooper to hit those numbers, and that is his rank among what I believe the top 100 scoring WRs this season will do. I think you're arguing for the sake of arguing since I made a bold and unpopular claim.

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7 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

Understood what you are saying, but not what I'm going for. I project Cooper to hit those numbers, and that is his rank among what I believe the top 100 scoring WRs this season will do. I think you're arguing for the sake of arguing since I made a bold and unpopular claim.

 

 I just want to know if we are comparing apples to apples.   When u make lists ranking players and then make statements like- "he's amazing for his price"...it's misleading.     Don't want to misquote u man.    Carry on 

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2 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

4. Amari Cooper, OAK
2017 Projection: 90 receptions / 1305 yards / 10 touchdowns (280 points)
Outlook: This is the year for the Oakland offense. It's Derek Carr's fourth year and Amari Cooper's third year - a time-tested and proven recipe for fantasy success. I like the entire offense to take a huge step forward with the addition of Marshawn Lynch and the return of a dominant offensive line. This is the year that the former Top 10 pick puts it all together and justifies his high draft slot for the Raiders. Cooper left a TON of points on the field last season in the form of dropped touchdowns and red zone miscommunication, including a fluky spider-cam deflection on what would have been a sure-fire 60 yard touchdown in Kansas City, and I expect him to shore up those mistakes and finish in the Top 5 in 2017.

 

I really like most of your projections and appreciate all the effort... but this is very lofty for a player who's never eclipsed 1,150 yards or 6 TDs, albeit early in his career.  This feels like an absolute ceiling rather than a fair projection.

 

Still run first in the red zone, and looking for Crabtree first when they do throw, IMO.  Virtually nothing has changed from last season to this season, except for the addition of an even better RB, and I don't know how that helps Cooper.  He's a firm DND for me in the 2nd and 3rd round until I actually see him do it once.  If you draft him and he gives you 1,100 and 6 again, then that's a huge negative for your team considering the price you pay.  If you don't draft him and he gives you 1,300 and 10, then you learned something new.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

 I just want to know if we are comparing apples to apples.   When u make lists ranking players and then make statements like- "he's amazing for his price"...it's misleading.     Don't want to misquote u man.    Carry on 

I meant it in a way to explain that, in addition to how much I like Cooper this year, that's another bonus to him in my eyes; I expect him to perform like an elite for a lower price. It meant nothing about my projections, but I can understand the confusion.

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57 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I really like most of your projections and appreciate all the effort... but this is very lofty for a player who's never eclipsed 1,150 yards or 6 TDs, albeit early in his career.  This feels like an absolute ceiling rather than a fair projection.

 

Still run first in the red zone, and looking for Crabtree first when they do throw, IMO.  Virtually nothing has changed from last season to this season, except for the addition of an even better RB, and I don't know how that helps Cooper.  He's a firm DND for me in the 2nd and 3rd round until I actually see him do it once.  If you draft him and he gives you 1,100 and 6 again, then that's a huge negative for your team considering the price you pay.  If you don't draft him and he gives you 1,300 and 10, then you learned something new.

Could be, but I saw him make a lot of mental errors last year and be the victim of a huge fluke on TNF so I feel as if the opportunity to add 150 yards and 4 touchdowns to his previous career highs is alive.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I really like most of your projections and appreciate all the effort... but this is very lofty for a player who's never eclipsed 1,150 yards or 6 TDs, albeit early in his career.  This feels like an absolute ceiling rather than a fair projection.

 

Still run first in the red zone, and looking for Crabtree first when they do throw, IMO.  Virtually nothing has changed from last season to this season, except for the addition of an even better RB, and I don't know how that helps Cooper.  He's a firm DND for me in the 2nd and 3rd round until I actually see him do it once.  If you draft him and he gives you 1,100 and 6 again, then that's a huge negative for your team considering the price you pay.  If you don't draft him and he gives you 1,300 and 10, then you learned something new.

 

An extra 350 receiving yards over 16 games to reach 1500 would be 21.875 more yards per game.

 

That is 1 maybe 2 extra catches per game for Cooper, easily attainable.

 

He had 6 Tds last year despite having 1 called back for holding, 1 hit the camera wire, and 1 he just missed dragging his toes in bounds. That would have been 9 so it proves the opportunity for double digit TDs is there.

 

Crabtree saw more targets last year because he was double covered more often causing Carr to throw to Crabs.

 

Enter Beast Mode..... now the strong safety has to creep down into the box, no more rolling the SS over to help cover Amari on the deep passes, more 1 on 1 coverage for Cooper will be great for him, he has no problem beating 1 on 1 coverage.

 

Has a top 5 pass blocking OLine

 

Has a top 5 QB throwing him the ball.

 

Will be the #1 WR on what will probably be the highest scoring offense in the NFL.

 

1500 yards and 10 TDs is not even his ceiling, IMO.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I really like most of your projections and appreciate all the effort... but this is very lofty for a player who's never eclipsed 1,150 yards or 6 TDs, albeit early in his career.  This feels like an absolute ceiling rather than a fair projection.

 

Still run first in the red zone, and looking for Crabtree first when they do throw, IMO.  Virtually nothing has changed from last season to this season, except for the addition of an even better RB, and I don't know how that helps Cooper.  He's a firm DND for me in the 2nd and 3rd round until I actually see him do it once.  If you draft him and he gives you 1,100 and 6 again, then that's a huge negative for your team considering the price you pay.  If you don't draft him and he gives you 1,300 and 10, then you learned something new.

Maybe I am too high on Cooper, however I don't think Br0kenB's projection is completely unrealistic.  If I remember correctly coming out of Alabama Cooper's measurable compared to Marvin Harrison (although I believe Harrison ran a faster 40).  Yes Harrison is a hall of famer and also had Peyton Manning throwing him the ball but Harrison also averaged that kind of production for 7 years!!  Why is it so crazy to say that with Derek Carr and the offense around Cooper that he could approach these types of number for 1 year?  I feel like I am missing something. Is he simply not as good as projected?  Is the Raiders offense not good enough? 

 

2005 Indianapolis Colts 15 82 1,146 14.0 76.4 80T 12 14 3 59 0
 
2004 Indianapolis Colts 16 86 1,113 12.9 69.6 59 15 16 3 63 1
 
2003 Indianapolis Colts 15 94 1,272 13.5 84.8 79T 10 17 4 60 2
 
2002 Indianapolis Colts 16 143 1,722 12.0 107.6 69 11 22 4 92 0
 
2001 Indianapolis Colts 16 109 1,524 14.0 95.2 68 15 19 6 75 0
 
2000 Indianapolis Colts 16 102 1,413 13.9 88.3 78T 14 16 4 70 2
 
1999 Indianapolis Colts 16 115 1,663 14.5 103.9 57T 12 24 7 79

2

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Elwood333 said:

Maybe I am too high on Cooper, however I don't think Br0kenB's projection is completely unrealistic.  If I remember correctly coming out of Alabama Cooper's measurable compared to Marvin Harrison (although I believe Harrison ran a faster 40).  Yes Harrison is a hall of famer and also had Peyton Manning throwing him the ball but Harrison also averaged that kind of production for 7 years!!  Why is it so crazy to say that with Derek Carr and the offense around Cooper that he could approach these types of number for 1 year?  I feel like I am missing something. Is he simply not as good as projected?  Is the Raiders offense not good enough? 

 

Christine Michael's SPARQ score is better than David Johnson's, but we don't use measurables or hopes to build projections.

 

Why is it crazy to say that with Carr and that offense, he could approach these numbers for 1 year?  It's not crazy.  He could.  I'm just saying that it's not logical to expect it will happen.

 

I feel like I'm the one who's missing something.  Why do we expect that the same player in the same situation is going to produce significantly better results?

 

Again, 1300/10 very well could happen.  I'm not saying that it won't.  I'm just saying that it would be unwise to expect it.

 

5-8 TDs, 100-110 recs, 1,100-1,200 yards.  There's way too many of these types of guys for me to even think about blowing a 2nd round pick on him.  I'd much rather take Fitzgerald in the 6th who will give me virtually the same production.  I'd rather take Garcon in the 8th who will give me 90%.

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51 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

An extra 350 receiving yards over 16 games to reach 1500 would be 21.875 more yards per game.

 

That is 1 maybe 2 extra catches per game for Cooper, easily attainable.

 

He had 6 Tds last year despite having 1 called back for holding, 1 hit the camera wire, and 1 he just missed dragging his toes in bounds. That would have been 9 so it proves the opportunity for double digit TDs is there.

 

Crabtree saw more targets last year because he was double covered more often causing Carr to throw to Crabs.

 

Enter Beast Mode..... now the strong safety has to creep down into the box, no more rolling the SS over to help cover Amari on the deep passes, more 1 on 1 coverage for Cooper will be great for him, he has no problem beating 1 on 1 coverage.

 

Has a top 5 pass blocking OLine

 

Has a top 5 QB throwing him the ball.

 

Will be the #1 WR on what will probably be the highest scoring offense in the NFL.

 

1500 yards and 10 TDs is not even his ceiling, IMO.

 

he only had 5 tds last year and its clear you love cooper but he only had 4 or 5 good games last year i need more then that out of a second round pick 

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34 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

5-8 TDs, 100-110 recs, 1,100-1,200 yards.  There's way too many of these types of guys for me to even think about blowing a 2nd round pick on him.  I'd much rather take Fitzgerald in the 6th who will give me virtually the same production.  I'd rather take Garcon in the 8th who will give me 90%.

 

I guess to put things into perspective I am targeting Cooper as the 3rd best player on my teams.  If you have to take him in the 2nd round to get him then there would likely be a RB or WR that I would select ahead of him.  I'm not guaranteeing that Cooper blows up, I just don't think should be a surprise if he enters the elite category this year because I think everything is in place for him to do so.  Br0kenB picking Cooper as his hunch player to take a big leap forward this year makes perfect sense to me.

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29 minutes ago, Flyers_28 said:

 

he only had 5 tds last year and its clear you love cooper but he only had 4 or 5 good games last year i need more then that out of a second round pick 

 

He wasnt a 2nd round pick last year.

 

If you think he will only have 4 or 5 good games this year then dont draft him.

 

I think he will have more than that, several more, so he is worth a 2nd round pick to me.

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I think its pretty apparent in this thread why people are buying or selling cooper this season.

 

If you are buying Cooper you believe that with his talent and opportunity, in that offense, he has the upside to become an elite WR in year 3 even though to date he has only produced WR2 numbers. 

 

If you are selling Cooper you believe he is inconsistent, don't want to invest 2nd rd draft capital on someone who hasn't shown you elite numbers yet and he hasn't even been the #1 WR on his own team(still not sure why thats relevant IMO). 

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At end of the day once again it's simply lucky of the draw. Alot of his stats are from huge games and then he's quiet in others, but if more consistency can be had I feel Cooper definitely can achieve a higher status. I think this offense has more room to mature and grow, Carr can take this team places and Cooper will definitely improve but just a matter of when. 

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Christine Michael's SPARQ score is better than David Johnson's, but we don't use measurables or hopes to build projections

 

My understanding is that Michael is a block head.  I did draft him late first round in a league or two based on his talent but I didn't know he was a dum dum.  I absolutely use measurables, hopes, offseason changes, and changes in situations to build projections. Looking at what a player has already done and believing he will repeat the same performance is playing it safe.  I think that make sense for an established player like Golden Tate or the Broncos WRs.  I try to pick about 5 players at each position that I think will take a significant step forward and I'm projecting Cooper to be one of them.  That does not mean I want to draft him based on my projection, it means I want to draft him on what he did last year and hope for the significant step forward.

 

Why do we expect that the same player in the same situation is going to produce significantly better results?

 

Natural progression and experience of a 3rd year WR that seems determined to get better and is coupled with a good young QB that took a big step forward last year.

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56 minutes ago, Tcann66 said:

he hasn't even been the #1 WR on his own team(still not sure why thats relevant IMO).

 

You don't know why it's relevant that Crabtree has outproduced him each of the last 2 years?  And that he's still going 3+ rounds later?

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16 minutes ago, Elwood333 said:

Natural progression and experience of a 3rd year WR that seems determined to get better and is coupled with a good young QB that took a big step forward last year.

 

I'm curious, can you point out this big step?

 

Carr.png

 

Less Attempts, Less yards, Less TDs, Less rushing yards, less fantasy points, same PPG. *Yahoo Default

Sure his completion rate went up, but all that means is less total attempts required to complete the same amount of passes.  Less targets, same receptions.

 

Unless you think OAK will run a considerable amount more plays on the year, or will drastically alter their run:pass ratio, or think their Defense will drop off forcing more shootouts... I'm just not sure where we expect these extra plays, yards, and TDs to come from.  TD's I could actually buy into, if we were presented with a poor red zone success rate last year.  A quick Google leads me to a 58% scoring rate for red zone trips.  13th best in the league.  They were at 61% in 2015, and seems as if 68% usually leads the league.

 

Quick math says 3.4 red zone trips per game, 54.4 on the year, 58% success rate for 31 RZ touchdowns.

68% would jump them up to 36 TDs.  So a 5 TD jump if they lead the league in RZ success.

Even if every single one goes to Amari, we're still lacking the plays, targets, catches, and yards, for him to make the leap to elite.

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You guys are forgetting that he made a lot of mental mistakes and errors last year and was a few mis-communications away from a few more scores. If those were to go his way, his 2016 could have been way bigger.

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Good info, FFC.  Carr may have taken a leap in the eyes of the media, but statistically he was about the same QB as the year before.  The "3rd year QB leap" didn't really happen with Carr -- that happened from his 1st to 2nd year.  A 3rd year WR leap may happen with Cooper.  But you're betting on a hope, at that point.  I don't know how anyone can rank or draft Cooper ahead of Crabtree.  Don't forget Crabtree was also an elite college prospect.

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1 minute ago, Br0kenB said:

You guys are forgetting that he made a lot of mental mistakes and errors last year and was a few mis-communications away from a few more scores. If those were to go his way, his 2016 could have been way bigger.

 

Happens to almost every WR.  Maybe Cooper gets better and doesn't make those mistakes this year?  Or maybe not?  

 

The 60 yard TD vs KC that hit the wire is the only benefit of the doubt I'll give him.

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51 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I'm curious, can you point out this big step?

 

Certainly.  The way I remember it Carr was being talked about as a possible league MVP until he got hurt.  I'm not talking the big one against the Colts but the finger injury vs. the Panthers week 12.  He played through it and he played well but I remember reading about him having to play from shotgun over the next few games.  I don't think it was broke but I remember it made him difficult to start those weeks because it was on his throwing hand and it was serious.

 

Derek Carr (finger) returned in the third quarter against the Panthers.

Carr went to the locker room with a dislocated pinkie finger on his throwing hand. He got it put back in place, missing just one series. Carr is now wearing a glove on his right hand and taking all of his snaps out of shotgun.

 

The stats may be about the same but I think the turn over ratio, the winning season by the Raiders, & subsequent playoff berth may justify my comments about his big step forward.  Stats don't always tell you everything you need to know.

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6 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I really like most of your projections and appreciate all the effort... but this is very lofty for a player who's never eclipsed 1,150 yards or 6 TDs, albeit early in his career.  This feels like an absolute ceiling rather than a fair projection.

 

Still run first in the red zone, and looking for Crabtree first when they do throw, IMO.  Virtually nothing has changed from last season to this season, except for the addition of an even better RB, and I don't know how that helps Cooper.  He's a firm DND for me in the 2nd and 3rd round until I actually see him do it once.  If you draft him and he gives you 1,100 and 6 again, then that's a huge negative for your team considering the price you pay.  If you don't draft him and he gives you 1,300 and 10, then you learned something new.

 

 

Main surprised at this logic. We have to be forward thinking in this game. Otherwise if we wait until everyone has proven it then let's just print out last years rankings until proven otherwise. Cooper is a guy I have steered clear of the past couple of years but this is an offense behind a top 5 Oline in the league. If cooper simply improves as a very young player and swaps with Crabtree. If a few crazy bounces go his way this year he could meet this projection. It's worth consideration. 

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