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Amari Cooper 2017 Season Outlook


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16 hours ago, Ravensdan said:

I still have not heard any argument that will convince me Cooper will be getting the necessary volume to improve on his numbers. Every indicator this offseason points to the Raiders having less volume of pass attempts. Playing at a slower pace. Free agency : added power runner RB,Draft:. Every single pick was on defense and Oline. Adding to their already great run blockers. I'd love to see him break out but I don't see it in the cards here. 

 

Cooper won't be a top 5 scoring WR for fantasy until Crabtree is gone.  People want to discount Crabtree every year and I'm not sure why.

 

Crabtree is an excellent WR and he's the better value in fantasy.  

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2 hours ago, shaft4783 said:

 

Cooper won't be a top 5 scoring WR for fantasy until Crabtree is gone.  People want to discount Crabtree every year and I'm not sure why.

 

Crabtree is an excellent WR and he's the better value in fantasy.  

 

Meanwhile 100 percent of the fantasy football world will draft Amari several rounds before Crabtree.

 

Why?

 

Because Amari has the higher ceiling and is more talented.

 

Amari has top 5 WR potential, Crabs does not.

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2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Meanwhile 100 percent of the fantasy football world will draft Amari several rounds before Crabtree.

 

Why?

 

Because Amari has the higher ceiling and is more talented.

 

Amari has top 5 WR potential, Crabs does not.

 

did u even read what he said ? i dont see how you can say crabs is not better value when they both score pretty much the same and you can get him a few rounds later 

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1 hour ago, Flyers_28 said:

 

did u even read what he said ? i dont see how you can say crabs is not better value when they both score pretty much the same and you can get him a few rounds later 

 

I think everyone who chooses to believe Amari has top 5 WR potential this year also believes that getting Amari at the end of the 2nd round or beginning of the 3rd would be of tremendous value, if Amari finishes around Brown, Beckham, and Jones then he will have returned a mid 1st round value for a late 2nd or early 3rd pick.

 

To me, that would be more valuable than taking Crabtree in round 5 when i could probably get a joe mixon or dalvin cook or mark ingram or AP and probably still snag a willie sneed or pierre garcon even later.

 

Point being, if Amari makes that leap this year that many are predicting then Amari becomes the better value than Crabs.

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36 minutes ago, BuckeyeNutz said:

Hope the addition of Beastmode does not lower his production.. Amari should continue to eat, hope Carr throws him the rock more in the RZ.. Amari at the end of 2, beginning of 3 should be a good spot for him.. 

 

more weapons could mean less volume but higher quality looks.

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6 hours ago, BuckeyeNutz said:

Hope the addition of Beastmode does not lower his production.. Amari should continue to eat, hope Carr throws him the rock more in the RZ.. Amari at the end of 2, beginning of 3 should be a good spot for him.. 

I don't think a different rb will matter in the slightest. Lat had plenty of tds short in and so should Lynch.   Cooper's production will be a matter of target share and getting more RZ looks in passing situations.   

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On 7/13/2017 at 2:05 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Meanwhile 100 percent of the fantasy football world will draft Amari several rounds before Crabtree.

 

Why?

 

Because Amari has the higher ceiling and is more talented.

 

Amari has top 5 WR potential, Crabs does not.

 

Just like last year, I see no reason to think that Crabtree will not be the higher scoring player and the better value.  Nothing has changed in regards to the OAK offense that will make Crabtree decline and Cooper ascend.  If anything, having a sustained rushing attack with Lynch and the addition of Cook could decrease both of their numbers. 

 

In 1 PPR leagues 2016:

 

Crabtree - 229.6 total points - 15.3 AVG per week

Cooper - 218.4 total points - 14.6 AVG per week

 

Current Fantasyfootballcalculator.com ADP for 2017 in 1 PPR:

 

Cooper 2.08

Crabtree 7.07

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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On 7/13/2017 at 5:24 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I think everyone who chooses to believe Amari has top 5 WR potential this year also believes that getting Amari at the end of the 2nd round or beginning of the 3rd would be of tremendous value, if Amari finishes around Brown, Beckham, and Jones then he will have returned a mid 1st round value for a late 2nd or early 3rd pick.

 

To me, that would be more valuable than taking Crabtree in round 5 when i could probably get a joe mixon or dalvin cook or mark ingram or AP and probably still snag a willie sneed or pierre garcon even later.

 

Point being, if Amari makes that leap this year that many are predicting then Amari becomes the better value than Crabs.

 

Cooper made the leap in 2015, his rookie year.  He is that dude!  The only way he goes from yearly 70-80/1100/4-6 is a Crabtree injury or Crabtree getting cut, which isn't happening until 2018 at the earliest.  Crabtree will be there this year.  

 

In redraft 1PPR, Nelson, Hilton, and Cooks all have similar ADP as Cooper and the 3 of them are virtually guaranteed to have a better year.  

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1 hour ago, shaft4783 said:

Just like last year, I see no reason to think that Crabtree will not be the higher scoring player and the better value.  Nothing has changed in regards to the OAK offense that will make Crabtree decline and Cooper ascend.  If anything, having a sustained rushing attack with Lynch and the addition of Cook could decrease both of their numbers. 

Let's not all forget our lord and savior CP84!!! is now an Oakland Raider as well.

Seth Roberts had 20 Red Zone targets last year, 9th highest in the league.  CP84 is the same height, 25lbs bigger, and astronomically more physically gifted in every imaginable category.  While he was a large bust after his 'breakout' he is now free from the reigns of MIN, and in line to be the 3rd WR for Carr, with a knack for gadget plays.  I doubt that makes him fantasy relevant this year, beyond return yardage leagues, where he'll still be somewhat TD dependent.  While I don't think he directly eats into Crabtree or Coopers production, I do think he keeps their ceilings in check, whether by Red Zone presence, trick plays, sweeps, end arounds, screen etc, it seems likely they will get him involved.

Now if CP84 falls on his face again, and Amari and Seth simply swap their RZ usage, then Cooper could very well see these jumps some are expecting in the TD category, which would significantly boost his fantasy production.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/07/30/raiders-in-napa-three-things-we-learned-on-sunday/

 

Quote

1. Bigger is better for Cooper: Cooper flew past Sean Smith on a double move for a big play during seven-on-seven drills, and drew oohs and ahas from the crowd when he went up and high-pointed a downfield throw from Carr.

 

“I think at route tops when you’re a little more sturdy with DBs it helps you stay a little more in balance,” offensive coordinator Todd Downing said. “It helps you stay a little bit more in balance. It certainly helps you come back to the ball and play through the ball stronger.

 

“Those are two areas I can say I’ve seen a big difference with Amari. And holding his route path, when you have a little bit more girth, a little bit more strength, it’s hard for the DBs to knock you off course.”

 

Knocks on against Cooper — and it’s admittedly nit-picking considering he’s had back-to-back seasons of  more than 1,000 yards receiving — included fades in the second halves of each season as well as struggling against physical press coverage.

 

Cooper, who said he arrived at training camp weighing 217 pounds after playing last season at 210, had five receiving touchdowns last season. It was a modest total for a player with the skill to have two or three times that  many.

 

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On 7/11/2017 at 7:34 AM, PolarBear said:

Through the first 8 games of 2016, Amari Cooper was on track for 104 receptions, 1500+ yards and then he fell off a cliff. 

 

He did something similar in his rookie year. 

 

If Cooper can keep his foot on the gas for 16 games, he will finish as a top 3 WR. With his pedigree and work ethic, I am willing to bet on him to get there this year.  

 

The kid had 21 grabs for more than 20+ yards and was top 5 in yards after catch. 

 

 

 

Something I noticed similar to what you mentioned: 

 

Following the first half of the season, Cooper had 80 targets. He was on pace for a 160 target season. 

 

Second half of the season, Cooper had 52 targets. A 104 target pace over a 16 game schedule. Someone noted earlier that Cooper was coming up on the injury report over the second half of last season with a shoulder ailment. Cooper finished the 2016 season with 132 targets. Amari Cooper had five double digit target games last year. Four of them came over those first 8 games. 

 

I decided to check out Crabtree's splits. Perhaps he suffered a similar decrease.

 

First half of the year, Crabtree had 75 targets. A 150 target pace. Crabtree finished with 145 targets, so his 1st half pace was right in line with what he finished with. Crabtree had seven double digit target games. Four came in the first half of the season.

 

The Raiders threw the ball 323 times in the 1st half of the season. A pace of 646 pass attempts.

 

The second half of the season, they threw the ball 273 times. A pace of 546 pass attempts. Oakland finished the year with 596 pass attempts.

 

The Raiders ran the ball 195 times across the first 8 games. 390 over 16 games.

 

The Raiders ran the ball 239 times across the last 8 games (478 over 16 games). 

 

Offensive plays by half were largely the same. 545 plays over the first 8 games. 538 over last 8 games.

 

Some other things of note. 

 

Per my findings, Cooper did not come up on the practice report at any point during the 1st half of the season. Not once. 

 

Week 9, Cooper popped up on the injury report with a back injury. Practiced on a limited basis all week.

 

Week 11, Cooper again popped up on the injury report with a back injury. Limited basis all week.

 

Week 15, Cooper appeared on the injury report with a shoulder issue. Limited basis all week.

 

Week 16, Cooper practiced on a limited basis all week with the shoulder problem.

 

Week 17, Cooper again practiced on a limited basis all week with the shoulder ailment.

 

 

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@NYR Fan 116894, good stuff. The 2nd half trend towards the run could've been a bit matchup based, a bit game flow based, a bit injury based, but also could've had something to do with the falling out between Jack del Rio and OC Bill Musgrave, who despite taking this team from 32nd to 6th in total offense in just two seasons, did not have his contract renewed at season's end (Musgrave is now the QB coach for Denver). Todd Downing was promoted to OC from QB coach for 2017. 

 

Del Rio complained about the play calling in KC's week 14 loss to the media (21-13 loss) where Carr went 17/41 and Latavius had an effective 22-103-1 on the ground. The final straw was Latavius's five carry effort in their week 17 loss to Denver where he again threw Musgrave under the bus for his play calling. Del Rio was growing increasingly frustrated with the direction of the offense despite the team's overall great season as the Raiders tended to be too panicky when down and too conservative when up. The Raiders' second half trend towards the run could've been very much del Rio influenced as much as it was also due to Cooper's banged up body. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

I drew the 3-hole in the FFPC Main Event, so I'm going to have to seriously look at Amari Cooper for my 2.10 pick. Great talent, and I love what he can potentially do in this league. If he's healthy and clicking, he's gonna produce 90+ catch seasons. 

 

I am however a bit nervous about Marshawn's addition, as well as Richard and Washington's respective effectiveness as COP backs. With del Rio getting rid of Musgrave and a 2017 schedule that does not look particularly favorable, I have my Amari projections more on the conservative side right now because of the possibility of this offense committing more to the ground-and-pound than they have in the past. 

 

597f121239a26_1(4)-min.thumb.jpg.505d93e6fcabe69fd91579e1a611f366.jpg

 

And how much will Jared Cook and Cord affect his usage rate? Cook obviously isn't great, but he's probably capable of 50-670-4 in this offense, which would be a sizable upgrade over what Clive Walford had been giving them. Does that also cap Cooper's ceiling somewhat? 

 

Now having said all that, in the end, I'm not hugely excited by the other big names available around his ADP, so I may just bet on talent and hope he drops a great season long line, in spite of whatever my perceived road blocks to his success may be... because there's no question that an injury or two or three played a major role in his decline in the second half of 2016 as much as it was some dissension among the brain trust. 90-1250-X is always in play for this guy as long as both him and Carr are healthy. I have a feeling I'm going to pull the trigger anyway despite my listed concerns here. 

 

 

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Re: Crabtree being the better value. That very well could be true. I own Crabtree once already (4.7) in an FFPC satellite. 145-89-1003-8 (11.3) with a league high 9 drops. Maybe he cleans those up? And given the nasty schedule, Carr may opt towards leaning on Crabtree against the lesser DB a bit more.

 

Crabtree's presence certainly presents another potential stumbling point for Amari reaching the next level. 

 

Interesting thread. Enjoying the discussion. 

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Cooper doesn't get enough red zone looks to make the jump to elite status.  With Crabtree, Cook, CP 84, and Beastmode in the offense I don't see that changing this year.  He is a rock solid WR2, but I think his ceiling is limited due to all of the other weapons and how he isn't targeted often in the red zone.

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5 hours ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

The Raiders ran the ball 195 times across the first 8 games. 390 over 16 games.

 

The Raiders ran the ball 239 times across the last 8 games (478 over 16 games). 

 

Would love to see this for all teams as well.

 

Seems to me that every year when you get into November and December, teams simply run the ball a lot more.

 

I'm sure Carr's injury only exacerbated this for Oakland in 2016.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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22 minutes ago, mmcalli884 said:

Cooper doesn't get enough red zone looks to make the jump to elite status.  With Crabtree, Cook, CP 84, and Beastmode in the offense I don't see that changing this year.  He is a rock solid WR2, but I think his ceiling is limited due to all of the other weapons and how he isn't targeted often in the red zone.

 

13 targets in the red zone is more then most get he just has to convert some of them 

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I'm not sure I understand the hype train on Cooper. He had six targets inside the ten last year. Six! Crabtree, over the last two years, has been one of the most successful red zone pass catchers in the league. I don't imagine that trend just magically goes away. I think the fact they added Lynch takes away passing numbers. Nothing drastic, but something nonetheless. Also, as a huge Raiders fan, I imagine they'll be up in a lot of games. I think they are one of the best teams in the league this year, so I imagine they will be ahead in more games then they were last year. Nothing crazy drastic, but something nonetheless. When you couple in everything together for Cooper, there's not a chance in hell I'm touching him in the second round. He does have a high floor considering he's in an elite offense, but I don't see the upside everyone is speaking of. I can understand the stuff everyone is saying just not the logic behind it. I'd much rather take Crabtree three rounds later, or Lynch in the third ?

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11 hours ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

Something I noticed similar to what you mentioned: 

 

Following the first half of the season, Cooper had 80 targets. He was on pace for a 160 target season. 

 

Second half of the season, Cooper had 52 targets. A 104 target pace over a 16 game schedule. Someone noted earlier that Cooper was coming up on the injury report over the second half of last season with a shoulder ailment. Cooper finished the 2016 season with 132 targets. Amari Cooper had five double digit target games last year. Four of them came over those first 8 games. 

 

I decided to check out Crabtree's splits. Perhaps he suffered a similar decrease.

 

First half of the year, Crabtree had 75 targets. A 150 target pace. Crabtree finished with 145 targets, so his 1st half pace was right in line with what he finished with. Crabtree had seven double digit target games. Four came in the first half of the season.

 

The Raiders threw the ball 323 times in the 1st half of the season. A pace of 646 pass attempts.

 

The second half of the season, they threw the ball 273 times. A pace of 546 pass attempts. Oakland finished the year with 596 pass attempts.

 

The Raiders ran the ball 195 times across the first 8 games. 390 over 16 games.

 

The Raiders ran the ball 239 times across the last 8 games (478 over 16 games). 

 

Offensive plays by half were largely the same. 545 plays over the first 8 games. 538 over last 8 games.

 

Some other things of note. 

 

Per my findings, Cooper did not come up on the practice report at any point during the 1st half of the season. Not once. 

 

Week 9, Cooper popped up on the injury report with a back injury. Practiced on a limited basis all week.

 

Week 11, Cooper again popped up on the injury report with a back injury. Limited basis all week.

 

Week 15, Cooper appeared on the injury report with a shoulder issue. Limited basis all week.

 

Week 16, Cooper practiced on a limited basis all week with the shoulder problem.

 

Week 17, Cooper again practiced on a limited basis all week with the shoulder ailment.

 

 

 

Every move the Raiders made this offseason suggests the trend toward a slower pace offense with more rushes. This second half stay is a trend I expect to continue. Not the environment I would expect Cooper to pay off in. He would need more volume. Not less. 

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1 hour ago, Ravensdan said:

 

Every move the Raiders made this offseason suggests the trend toward a slower pace offense with more rushes. This second half stay is a trend I expect to continue. Not the environment I would expect Cooper to pay off in. He would need more volume. Not less. 

 

I think u need to take that with a grain of salt-  a lot of it was gameflow and environment.  The ice bowl in

KC where he had that easy long TD bounce off the TV wire.  In Denver when Carr was hurt and they had the playoffs sewn up.   Just looking at an injury report and target stats doesn't give a complete picture.  There's a ton of room for growth with the player and the team.  

 

Yes, Cooper needs to play more consistently and win more consistently down the stretch.    But that comes with experience and building your body to withstand the rigors of the NFL.   They are an offense built around a young, MVP candidate, and he's in the best shape of his life.   That bodes well for ACs continued development.    

Edited by Impreza178
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11 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

I think u need to take that with a grain of salt-  a lot of it was gameflow and environment.  The ice bowl in

KC where he had that easy long TD bounce off the TV wire.  In Denver when Carr was hurt and they had the playoffs sewn up.   Just looking at an injury report and target stats doesn't give a complete picture.  There's a ton of room for growth with the player and the team.  

 

Yes, Cooper needs to play more consistently and win more consistently down the stretch.    But that comes with experience and building your body to withstand the rigors of the NFL.   They are an offense built around a young, MVP candidate, and he's in the best shape of his life.   That bodes well for ACs continued development.    

 

Tge end of year trends adds to every move they made this offseason was geared to run the ball and play better defense. There's no question in my mind what kind of team they want to have. 

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5 minutes ago, Ravensdan said:

 

Tge end of year trends adds to every move they made this offseason was geared to run the ball and play better defense. There's no question in my mind what kind of team they want to have. 

No...it's merely doing what every team should do.   Improve areas of weakness.  They already have a great passing game.   No need to put a bunch of resources into that.    Their defense was extremely suspect and the running game was inconsistent.    But make no mostake-this team's bread is buttered by Derek Carr and the passing game.   Amari just needs to be more consistent and grow.  

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