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2017 General Draft Strategies


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Really enjoyed this thread last year.  Learned all about the 15-1 approach (employed with disastrous results by me, the one time I tried), and other general approaches to all different kinds of leagues.

 

I want to get the ball rolling with analysis of standard vanilla scoring leagues, and the value of QB vs RB vs WR vs TE at different stages in the draft.

 

I put the following graphs and charts together.  This is similar to what the look provided in the Aaron Rodgers thread, except I wanted to lay all the positions onto one graph so that you can look and see how one position is distributed relative to the others.

 

This data is all of 2016.  0 PPR.   - 2 pts per fumble.   - 2 pts per INT.  Data taken from: http://thehuddle.com/stats/2016/plays_std.php?pos=QB&ccs=1

 

A couple things jump out to me:

1) The value of RB over WR.  This is nothing new.  It's just interesting to look at it visually.  The high end RBs score a lot more, and the low end RBs score a lot less.  Vs WR has a lower ceiling, higher floor.  I will probably be waiting until mid rounds and grabbing a lot of Baldwin, Watkins, Landry, Fitzgerald, Martavis, and Pryor this year in my standard (i.e. as God intended) leagues.

2) The value of a high end QB.  I've detailed in many places why I think it's worth it to grab a high end QB at the end of the 2nd round.  But I'm definitely of the opinion that if you're not 1st or 2nd (Brady or Rodgers), then you should be last.  Such a flat tail of guys from QB8 to QB18, you can feasibly wait pretty late and be no worse off than the guy who takes one in round 7.

 

 

Anyways, I just wanted to throw all this out there as a jumping off point.  

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Interesting stuff.

 

Off the top of my head, if you're using games played as an indicator of health I'd back Brady's number out.  

 

 

 

I could do the same for any suspension, really. So back Bell's out, too. That's a good thoight. 

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17 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I could do the same for any suspension, really. So back Bell's out, too. That's a good thoight. 

 

Yup, if you want to measure injuries.  Another though is that QB's aren't suspended as often as RB's and WR's.  So while Bell's missed games might be representative of risk at the position, Brady's aren't.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Yup, if you want to measure injuries.  Another though is that QB's aren't suspended as often as RB's and WR's.  So while Bell's missed games might be representative of risk at the position, Brady's aren't.

 

Full disclosure, I just took guys that finished top 50 in points per game, and applied their total games.  So guys like AP and Charles aren't even included in those overall "avg games played" numbers.

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24 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Full disclosure, I just took guys that finished top 50 in points per game, and applied their total games.  So guys like AP and Charles aren't even included in those overall "avg games played" numbers.

 

It would probably be more effective to look at last years ADP vs Finish rather than how the players finished.  That can give readers an idea of how accurate/useful preseason rankings are and is a good starting point to compare your own preseason rankings against. I usually do that every season but I haven't gotten around to it.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/fantasy-football-ranks--preseason--16-164442676.html

 

Once you have the hits and misses, you can figure out why players hit or miss, then you've got yourself a draft strategy and some good analysis. 

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

I recently joined a custom, 12-team standard league at nfl.com & would greatly appreciate input pertaining to a random snake draft order. I won't know my draft position until 30 minutes prior to drafting. The LM says it doesn't make any difference, rankings and a backup plan is how he approaches this given arrangement.  I don't recall ever coming across this type of draft day curveball here. Not that it matters, as I'll appreciate any insight on the subject, but does anyone here have any experience with this setup and what did you learn?     

 

Thanks!

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14 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

I recently joined a custom, 12-team standard league at nfl.com & would greatly appreciate input pertaining to a random snake draft order. I won't know my draft position until 30 minutes prior to drafting. The LM says it doesn't make any difference, rankings and a backup plan is how he approaches this given arrangement.  I don't recall ever coming across this type of draft day curveball here. Not that it matters, as I'll appreciate any insight on the subject, but does anyone here have any experience with this setup and what did you learn?     

 

Thanks!

We use this setup in my redraft league. The biggest thing here is to do your homework. Come up with a general overall ranking, and some position rankings. Know the players you want. Look for value.

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20 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

I recently joined a custom, 12-team standard league at nfl.com & would greatly appreciate input pertaining to a random snake draft order. I won't know my draft position until 30 minutes prior to drafting. The LM says it doesn't make any difference, rankings and a backup plan is how he approaches this given arrangement.  I don't recall ever coming across this type of draft day curveball here. Not that it matters, as I'll appreciate any insight on the subject, but does anyone here have any experience with this setup and what did you learn?     

 

Thanks!

in my opinion that format sucks...the more creative and fun you can make a league the better. Coming up with creative ways to determine draft order is  one way to make a league more interesting in those long months before the season starts. Also knowing the draft order at least a few week before the draft allows you to do several mocks from that position and makes you better prepared. I like the idea of the winner of the league--as one of the perks of winning--gets to determine the means in which the order will be determined. It gets competitive in that each year you want to outdo the previous. I'd see if the Commish might be open to changing the rules

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11 minutes ago, GueroG said:

in my opinion that format sucks...the more creative and fun you can make a league the better. Coming up with creative ways to determine draft order is  one way to make a league more interesting in those long months before the season starts. Also knowing the draft order at least a few week before the draft allows you to do several mocks from that position and makes you better prepared. I like the idea of the winner of the league--as one of the perks of winning--gets to determine the means in which the order will be determined. It gets competitive in that each year you want to outdo the previous. I'd see if the Commish might be open to changing the rules

One other thing--at least in Yahoo you can manually set the draft order and make changes in the Snake. Twice now I've traded draft spots before the draft--knowing that the player I wanted was going to be available later I swapped spots in certain rounds. Again, knowing where you drafting and who you want ahead of time allows for those options. And again, you're proposing/making trades before the draft, thus extending the length (and great fun) of playing fantasy football

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5 minutes ago, GueroG said:

"In my opinion that format sucks...the more creative and fun you can make a league the better. My league just Coming up with creative ways to determine draft order are one way to make a league better. Also, knowing the draft order at least a few week before the draft allows you to do several mocks from that position and make you better prepared. I like the idea of the winner of the league--as one of the perks of winning--gets to determine the means in which the order will be determined. It gets competitive in that each year you want to outdo the previous. I'd see if the Commish might be open to changing the rules."

 

He is, but only if "we have an overwhelming" number of "requests" from the rest of us. What concerns me is that he's definitely played using this format before, I mean, what if none of the rest of us have? The part of your comment I emphasized is exactly why I was asking when & how the order would be determined in the first place. These other formats that you & league mates have tried, can you tell me some of them? Thanks, by the way, 'preciate it!    

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Or you could just roll with it. It requires you to be flexible and to really learn to find value at whatever your draft spot is, but it'll make you a better fantasy footballer.

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3 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

He is, but only if "we have an overwhelming" number of "requests" from the rest of us. What concerns me is that he's definitely played using this format before, I mean, what if none of the rest of us have? The part of your comment I emphasized is exactly why I was asking when & how the order would be determined in the first place. These other formats that you & league mates have tried, can you tell me some of them? Thanks, by the way, 'preciate it!    

Our first year we came up with a good one--it's a family league with siblings/cousins scattered all over, but alot in the midwest, Nascar country. So I alphabetized the team names in our league, then put the top ten Nascar drivers in order according to their car#. Matched them up and let everyone know in advance who their driver was, and we used the Brickyard 400 determine our order. I think I had Dale Jr and ended up picking 10th. Alot of smack talk just to determine draft order, and got everyone interested in the upcoming season by July. Be creative, use Skype or whatever means necessary to create interest and get everyone involved

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5 minutes ago, JJRules said:

Or you could just roll with it. It requires you to be flexible and to really learn to find value at whatever your draft spot is, but it'll make you a better fantasy footballer.

True enough, but the fantasy season is too short as it is. Why pass on the opportunity to start it sooner and bring the league together before the draft?

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56 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

I recently joined a custom, 12-team standard league at nfl.com & would greatly appreciate input pertaining to a random snake draft order. I won't know my draft position until 30 minutes prior to drafting. The LM says it doesn't make any difference, rankings and a backup plan is how he approaches this given arrangement.  I don't recall ever coming across this type of draft day curveball here. Not that it matters, as I'll appreciate any insight on the subject, but does anyone here have any experience with this setup and what did you learn?     

 

Thanks!

In redraft leagues, I love random orders drawn just before the draft. That way it greatly enhances the teams of those that prepare more. In general, you want to study more but have a very vague strategy. There are two big differences between random draw and knowing your position. That is the first round and you don't know right away if you are drafting near the turns or middle. The only team planning is I plan out my first round. If I were to draft first, who would I pick. If I were to be second and my top pick was off the board, who would I go with and so on. That is my only real strategy I go with. Other than that, my only advice is don't rush picks. Take your time. Especially if drafting near the turns. You need to be able to analyze on the fly earlier than normal. But there isn't too much difference during the draft, just be a little more prepared. 

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39 minutes ago, JJRules said:

"We use this setup in my redraft league. The biggest thing here is to do your homework. Come up with a general overall ranking, and some position rankings. Know the players you want. Look for value. ... Or you could just roll with it. It requires you to be flexible and to really learn to find value at whatever your draft spot is, but it'll make you a better fantasy footballer."

 

I get it, it's just, I like to know which players I can expect to be there, more or less so in any given round. 

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5 minutes ago, ajlynema said:

In redraft leagues, I love random orders drawn just before the draft. That way it greatly enhances the teams of those that prepare more. In general, you want to study more but have a very vague strategy. There are two big differences between random draw and knowing your position. That is the first round and you don't know right away if you are drafting near the turns or middle. The only team planning is I plan out my first round. If I were to draft first, who would I pick. If I were to be second and my top pick was off the board, who would I go with and so on. That is my only real strategy I go with. Other than that, my only advice is don't rush picks. Take your time. Especially if drafting near the turns. You need to be able to analyze on the fly earlier than normal. But there isn't too much difference during the draft, just be a little more prepared. 

I agree, you make a good point when you specify a vague strategy with the random order method, and I like your point on taking your time. But it doesn't mean you study less,,,this upcoming draft I already know I'm picking last in a 10 team standard, and picking at the turns is tough. So I know I'm not getting the Big 3 RB's or probably any of the obvious top 4 WR's, This early I'm liking Gordon if he falls, otherwise Thomas and Fournette or Howard. But by the 3rd round all bets are off as far as who's there, so I'm studying the rankings just as much as anyone else. I'm also looking into possibilities of trading up or down in certain rounds, an option you don't get with the random order

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4 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

 

I get it, it's just, I like to know which players I can expect to be there, more or less so in any given round. 

I'm with you on that, I like to prepare knowing where I'm going to be. Maybe you should  get in another league besides your NFL 12 teamer so you can try both ways, or better yet create your own league if you have enough family/friends/co-workers to come up with a strong 10 teams. Leagues are better, and smack talk is great, when you personally know everyone in your league

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9 hours ago, GueroG said:

"I'm with you on that, I like to prepare knowing where I'm going to be. Maybe you should  get in another league besides your NFL 12 teamer so you can try both ways..."

 

Yes, I'll certainly join several other leagues, I like the WR format at yahoo & the bi-weekly total for each playoff round at ESPN. I know a lot of people dread the resting of players on week 17, but it's FF & I'd rather still be playing than given the alternative, which is not at all. 

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11 hours ago, ajlynema said:

"In redraft leagues, I love random orders drawn just before the draft. That way it greatly enhances the teams of those that prepare more. In general, you want to study more but have a very vague strategy. ... Other than that, my only advice is don't rush picks. Take your time. Especially if drafting near the turns. You need to be able to analyze on the fly earlier than normal. But there isn't too much difference during the draft, just be a little more prepared." 

 

A vague strategy, meaning, don't get too locked into anything, RB or WR. I get that. But here's a second curveball, of sorts; we draft in the middle of June. Shouldn't that alter my strategy some? Would it be to my advantage to forego a backup QB & TE, a DEF & a Kicker? Load up on RB & WR in the event of injury? The other thing, do these types of leagues tend to have an active wire between the draft date and throughout the preseason? I'm pretty sure, I'm going to lose to this guy, but I figure, I can learn a lot from him.     

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15 minutes ago, screaming_vultures said:

@Lord_Varys What is this 15-1 approach? 

 

 

This year i feel BPA is the way to go, currently the rankings look alright(i guess we havent had the 'RB are scarce' crowd come in yet). Outside of the top 6, so many question marks everywhere. The RB situation is such a mess except for the top 3. 

and therein lies the rub when you get past the first couple of rounds--my opinion of BPA changes as the draft progresses. Rishard Matthews or Jeremy Hill? Thielen or Kelley? Flip a coin. The best player available may be a TE but you still haven't picked your RB2 and they are flying off the board. You have to be flexible cause the draft rarely goes the way you planned /want

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

A vague strategy, meaning, don't get too locked into anything, RB or WR. I get that. But here's a second curveball, of sorts; we draft in the middle of June. Shouldn't that alter my strategy some? Would it be to my advantage to forego a backup QB & TE, a DEF & a Kicker? Load up on RB & WR in the event of injury? The other thing, do these types of leagues tend to have an active wire between the draft date and throughout the preseason? I'm pretty sure, I'm going to lose to this guy, but I figure, I can learn a lot from him.     

you draft in June? Not many leagues do that, praying your top picks don't get hurt in camp. One thing I might do though is NOT draft a K or D/ST and use those last picks for sleepers. If say Smallwood, Marlon Mack or Jamaal Williams are available take a flier, pick up your K and D/ST right before your first game

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9 minutes ago, GueroG said:

and therein lies the rub when you get past the first couple of rounds--my opinion of BPA changes as the draft progresses. Rishard Matthews or Jeremy Hill? Thielen or Kelley? Flip a coin. The best player available may be a TE but you still haven't picked your RB2 and they are flying off the board. You have to be flexible cause the draft rarely goes the way you planned /want

I see what you are saying and for me if its a between WR and TE, i might go for WR .. 

However if RB2 is my weakness and if the best player available is a TE, i go for the TE regardless of my RB2 situation. RB2's (on a weekly basis) are dime a dozen in today's NFL. 

In fact if there was a position i would punt in the draft(early part of the draft, say first 6 rounds in a 12 teamer), it would be RB2. 

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I think one of the somewhat interesting questions this year will be "Who do you go at number 1?" 

If Bell is completely healthy, this question is much harder than what it appears to be.  

David Johnson or Leveon Bell ... 

 

 

What do you base this decision off ? 

Backup situation 

Strength of Schedule 

QBs/Talent around them and their age/injury history

 

 

Edited by screaming_vultures
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