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2017 General Draft Strategies


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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Once again, he has a point.  Some guy could score over 30 points in 4 games but then score below 10 in 5 games.  His PPG looks pretty good but chances are he may have cost me those 5 games when he scored below 10 points.  I'd rather have a guy that can consistently score me 15 PPG every game and help me win every game.

 

Looks like you won 4 games because your player scored over 30 ppg..... 

 

I'm just very surprised people think not going RB heavy in standard drafts is the right approach. I thought that was common sense. 

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Just now, boltup15 said:

 

Looks like you won 4 games because your player scored over 30 ppg..... 

 

I'd rather win every game and the player that can consistently put up good points every game can help me win more games.  i don't care if I win by 30 points or 1 point as long as I win.  Winning by 30 points occasioanlly does not get me anything extra but winning by a little every single game is huge.

 

I know that a player having a huge game can be the sole reason for a win and that's great.  If he's the only reason I'm winning that means the rest of my team is a little weak then.  I like players that can score high but I prefer a guys that rarely ever put up duds.

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4 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I'm just very surprised people think not going RB heavy in standard drafts is the right approach. I thought that was common sense. 

 

Depends on where you pick in the draft. If you start late (1.10-1.12), it's probably better to target other positions to dominate (WR, Gronk) in standard leagues. 

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

Depends on where you pick in the draft. If you start late (1.10-1.12), it's probably better to target other positions to dominate (WR, Gronk) in standard leagues. 

 

Gordon, Ajayi, Demarco at 10-12 over Jordy, Michael Thomas and Dez. I wouldn't take Gronk until early round 3 because I'm obviously a fan of late round TE for many reasons. Easy position to replace and not much scarcity regarding it. 

 

In ppr, wide receiver for the reasons @Shake has been stating. Plus, wide receivers typically score more points than RB's year after year. But the three down work horse is also a scarce position so I wouldn't mind taking one in round one and then going very heavy with WR until round 5,6 and pound away some RB's (Woodhead)

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Best strategy to go with this year is draft a run heavy RB system with a clear backup. Personally I'm hoping for a late pick in my 12 teamer to land Freeman/Murray and then later on have both handcuffs. The way espn has the rankings it's very easy to get high upside WRs in elite offenses late such as Moncrief, Adams and Bryant.

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1 minute ago, boshtrich17 said:

Best strategy to go with this year is draft a run heavy RB system with a clear backup. Personally I'm hoping for a late pick in my 12 teamer to land Freeman/Murray and then later on have both handcuffs. The way espn has the rankings it's very easy to get high upside WRs in elite offenses late such as Moncrief, Adams and Bryant.

 

Feels like you're using a lot of higher drafts picks just to get two players really. 

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2 hours ago, Shake said:

What constitutes a "competitive league" in your opinion? Just playing with a bunch of people from a forum? Playing for a ton of money? I'm just curious as to what others definitions are for this because I read that term a lot. 

 

 

I also see this term floated around quite a bit.  I imagine most people have different definitions.  For me personally,  a competitive league is a league where all owners involved stay fully active all season,  and all are very knowledgeable and seasoned veterans of the game.  That's probably the most important.  I know many people don't want to hear it but,  usually,  the more competitive leagues have money involved.  I've yet to ever find a free League that plays more competitive than a money league.  

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Henry and freeman were going kind of late I think Henry 10th and freeman 8th. For full on insurance to guarantee you don't have to go looking for another replacement and the replacements are going to be giving you rb1 value in return it becomes a full proof plan. I've done this plan with the 10th-12th pick in drafts and have landed an elite qb (Rodgers/Brees/Brady) and Kelce with the aforementioned high ceiling WRs.  

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1 hour ago, Shake said:

 

If you think I twisted your words you lack reading comprehension, there's nothing to twist.

 

You literally just made the point of why to draft a late round RB, there's no cost to it, it you bust it's of little consequence usually. Yeah you may miss someone else but that usually is far cry from missing on an early RB that busts when you could have drafted someone other than that RB. See how that works?

 

They don't hit in standard? 

 

RB1's in standard last year that weren't drafted in the top 3 rounds

 

Murray (4th), Gordon (4th), Ajayi (9th), Howard (undrafted), Blount (7th),  Gore (6th)

 

RB2's in standard last year

 

Crowell (8th), Ware (10th), Coleman (9th),  Powell, (10th)

 

Pretty rare though huh?

 

That's not even including guys like Riddick, Hightower, Rob Kelley, T. West, Dixon, Gio, James White, Ty Montgomery who had some good games along the way.

 

I think you may be underestimating how valuable a top shelf RB is. Don't get me wrong, I've had success with zero RB. It's a viable strategy and I don't think you're nuts, but a top 5 or 6 RB is an absolute game changer. I just pulled up my league from last year. The #4 RB was Lesean McCoy (not going to use DJ, Bell, or Zeke as an example because they're freaks). McCoy scored 307.50 points last year. Let's just say someone landed the #4 and #7 WRs in this league - in this case it was OBJ (250.25 points) and Doug Baldwin (212.20 points). Those 2 WRs combined for 462.45 points. Lesean McCoy paired with the #28 WR Mike Wallace combined for 465.45.

 

Lesean McCoy + Mike Wallace was a better combo than Odell Beckham Jr + Doug Baldwin. On the surface that sounds crazy, but the numbers are what they are. Sure, if you draft 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds you're going to whiff on 2 of them. But the point Bolt and Impreza are trying to make is that if you hit on 2 of them you're golden. Elite RBs score an insane amount of points.

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

 

Gordon, Ajayi, Demarco at 10-12 over Jordy, Michael Thomas and Dez. I wouldn't take Gronk until early round 3 because I'm obviously a fan of late round TE for many reasons. Easy position to replace and not much scarcity regarding it. 

 

In ppr, wide receiver for the reasons @Shake has been stating. Plus, wide receivers typically score more points than RB's year after year. But the three down work horse is also a scarce position so I wouldn't mind taking one in round one and then going very heavy with WR until round 5,6 and pound away some RB's (Woodhead)

 

Honestly, I think the top RBs are even more valuable in PPR. I just looked at my league from last year and there were a ton of WRs in the 160-180 point range. There's a much bigger drop off at RB. Devonta Freeman > Odell Beckham Jr in PPR.

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#6 RB Devonta Freeman + #40 WR Marquise Lee = 411.85 points

 

#6 WR TY Hilton + #20 RB Jeremy Hill = 402.00 points

 

That's right. The #6 RB + the #40 WR is a better combo than the #6 WR + the #20 RB. I'm actually glad I pulled up these numbers from my league last year because this is pretty eye opening.

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Would you guys be happy with a draft in which you took an RB in the first, Rodgers in the second, and Gronk/Kelce in the third? Obviously you miss out on some crucial WRs, but you have two positions locked down from the get-go and can then take a bunch of fliers.

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56 minutes ago, Geaux Saints said:

 

I think you may be underestimating how valuable a top shelf RB is. Don't get me wrong, I've had success with zero RB. It's a viable strategy and I don't think you're nuts, but a top 5 or 6 RB is an absolute game changer. I just pulled up my league from last year. The #4 RB was Lesean McCoy (not going to use DJ, Bell, or Zeke as an example because they're freaks). McCoy scored 307.50 points last year. Let's just say someone landed the #4 and #7 WRs in this league - in this case it was OBJ (250.25 points) and Doug Baldwin (212.20 points). Those 2 WRs combined for 462.45 points. Lesean McCoy paired with the #28 WR Mike Wallace combined for 465.45.

 

Lesean McCoy + Mike Wallace was a better combo than Odell Beckham Jr + Doug Baldwin. On the surface that sounds crazy, but the numbers are what they are. Sure, if you draft 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds you're going to whiff on 2 of them. But the point Bolt and Impreza are trying to make is that if you hit on 2 of them you're golden. Elite RBs score an insane amount of points.

 

If you've read all of my posts you'll know I'm not underestimating them, I've said they're valuable, I can't and won't deny that. However my main point is that they're far more risky and that's been proven as 40-50% of the top 12 bust year in and year out. I prefer to lessen my risk in the top 2-3 rounds if at all possible.  That doesn't mean I won't ever take a RB if the I felt super confident in one of them or the draft dictated me doing so due to a run on WR per say, just means I don't usually look at RBs in the top 2 rounds as much as I will WR because they're inherently less risky. Is this the right strategy all the time? Nope. I've missed on some gems at RB because I played it safe, but I've also missed on more busts at RB by using this strategy as well. Sometimes it's about who you don't draft vs who you do. What team obliterater did I not draft because I played it safe? 

 

I get the point their making and you're making, but you just said "if". "If you hit on 2 of them you're golden". However as I pointed out to Impreza if you're odds are basically 50% of finding a RB that doesn't bust in the top 2 rounds, what's the odds of finding two? Also, "if" you miss on those RBs you're probably going to be in for a long season.

 

While I get what you're saying I don't like to do comparisons like that because that's using total points, but we play this game weekly. Just because you got more total points from Shady/Wallace doesn't necessarily mean you got more wins because of them because this is Head to Head not total points. Still though, I understand the potential that a top tier RB has, I won't argue that, but I'll take safety all day over upside in the top 2 rounds especially because I'm confident in my ability to find the RBs that most seem to feel can't be found. This doesn't have to be the diamond in the rough that turns out to be next year's top 12 pick, this can be a one week wonder who gets you by for a week, or maybe you find a guy for a few weeks. For instance I managed quite a few good weeks from Gio, James White, Dixon, Tevin Coleman and Tim Hightower last year. Tim Hightower for goodness sakes, who'd have thought that'd be an option during draft time last year? But I played him against the 9ers and the Rams, and he went off. 

Edited by Shake
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28 minutes ago, Geaux Saints said:

#6 RB Devonta Freeman + #40 WR Marquise Lee = 411.85 points

 

#6 WR TY Hilton + #20 RB Jeremy Hill = 402.00 points

 

That's right. The #6 RB + the #40 WR is a better combo than the #6 WR + the #20 RB. I'm actually glad I pulled up these numbers from my league last year because this is pretty eye opening.

 

Probably would like to know what you're scoring setting is to be honest because Freeman and Lee scored 338 points in standard leagues.

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3 minutes ago, atrium said:

Would you guys be happy with a draft in which you took an RB in the first, Rodgers in the second, and Gronk/Kelce in the third? Obviously you miss out on some crucial WRs, but you have two positions locked down from the get-go and can then take a bunch of fliers.

 

Every time I've ever drafted a TE early I've ended up hating my team lol. I like to wait at TE.

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1 minute ago, Shake said:

 

Probably would like to know what you're scoring setting is to be honest because Freeman and Lee scored 338 points in standard leagues.

 

PPR. We also use bonus points. 3 points if a WR or RB goes over 100 yards, 150, 200. I actually hate bonus points but my league mates voted on it.

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1 hour ago, Bugs bunny said:

I also see this term floated around quite a bit.  I imagine most people have different definitions.  For me personally,  a competitive league is a league where all owners involved stay fully active all season,  and all are very knowledgeable and seasoned veterans of the game.  That's probably the most important.  I know many people don't want to hear it but,  usually,  the more competitive leagues have money involved.  I've yet to ever find a free League that plays more competitive than a money league.  

 

I agree with this definition for the most part, however I don't think just because you play for money (even though I do) that it makes your league any more competitive necessarily than a free league. Money is an incentive sure, but it doesn't make people better fantasy players. It doesn't make you research better, draft better, trade better, make sit/start decisions better, etc... Money is an incentive that's all. It may make those who otherwise would check out stay involved a bit more, but for people who love to play this game, you'd play it and try to be the best at it whether there's money on the line or not. Of course in my league there's money and a championship belt plus bragging rights, but still regardless I'm playing to win regardless of what's on the line. There's something to be said about holding the fact that you're the champion over your league mates for a whole year, you'll spend that money, but the bragging rights are forever.

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1 minute ago, Geaux Saints said:

 

PPR. We also use bonus points. 3 points if a WR or RB goes over 100 yards, 150, 200. I actually hate bonus points but my league mates voted on it.

 

Yeah I'm not for bonus points either, so no bonus if a WR/RB gets 99 yards but they get a bonus if at 100? So basically 1 yard is worth whatever the bonus points are in that scenario, not a fan of that. 

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5 minutes ago, Geaux Saints said:

 

Every time I've ever drafted a TE early I've ended up hating my team lol. I like to wait at TE.

Yeah there's something less aesthetically pleasing about a team roster when that team takes a TE early lol. Same with QB. I do wonder if it provides an advantage though.

Edited by atrium
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1 minute ago, atrium said:

Yeah there's something less aesthetically pleasing about a team roster when that team takes a TE early lol. Same with QB. I do wonder if it provides an advantage though.

 

I agree and I've never liked the way my team has looked any time I take Gronk. Would dislike it even more taking Gronk and a QB. 

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Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I agree and I've never liked the way my team has looked any time I take Gronk. Would dislike it even more taking Gronk and a QB. 

 

That's more about personal preference than anything though.  I can imagine very few have ever said they don't like how their team looks when Gronk is dropping massive points on the opposition.

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54 minutes ago, Geaux Saints said:

Honestly, I think the top RBs are even more valuable in PPR

 

I will have to agree. The scarcity of the three down full purpose back and increasing their value tremendously in all formats. 

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pssst, @Shake....idps often hide the weakness of teams by offering stable point scorers in droves. that's why i generally don't like them unless they are in 16+ leagues where weakness are to be expected. having them in a 10-12 team league is basically pointless and just free points imo. you seem to have a lot in your league. no wonder positional scarcity/advantages matters little to you. just lock in top 5 options at idp and sit back.

 

 

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Just now, boltup15 said:

 

I will have to agree. The scarcity of the three down full purpose back and increasing their value tremendously in all formats. 

 

Just as an example: Odell Beckham Jr and Adam Thielen were separated by 88 points. Lesean McCoy and Jonathan Stewart were separated by 160 points. 

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