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2017 General Draft Strategies


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1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

After doing several mocks and strategies over the last couple of weeks I have to say: I hate this year. Total roulette wheel at RB2. I may have to go with the literally throw a dart at a board full of names strategy.

I feel you.  I've been waiting until Gore rolls around to pick up a second RB, then I just start stockpiling guys.  That's PPR though, in standard I can just good luck.

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Which draft strategy ?

 

Keeper league, this year we keep four players for next year. After that, each year the number of keepers goes down by one player until we re-draft and keep no one.  So, last year I traded another owner for his 1st round pick this year.  The draft was just re-drawn the other night and he got (you guessed it) the #1 pick, which means I have the number one pick, along with my drawn pick of the #3 draft slot.

 

So, which stategy do you guys prefer ? or is there another you prefer ?

 

Pick #1 David Johnson

Pick #3 Antonio Brown

Pick #18 Rob Gronkowski

Pick #23 Aaron Rodgers

OR

Pick #1 David Johnson

Pick#3 Antonio Brown

Pick#18 Best Available RB/WR

Pick# 23 Best available RB/WR

 

I am leaning towards the first scenario because it would give me the best player available at four different positions. (assuming all players are available when I draft, which is plausible given their current ADP)

 

 

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10 hours ago, shakestreet said:

yea No kidding ... Instead of drafting Gronk in the 1st/2nd round give me a WR/RB that I trust that might actually be on the field for 16 games. I actually should also write I rather roll with a drafted TE in the 6th-8th rounds

 

Living in Massachusetts -- I love me the Gronkanator, he is special but for fantasy football purposes he is really over-rated. 

 

You would be drafting a RB like Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette or Lamar Miller 

 

You would be drafting a WR like DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper or Brandin Cooks. 

 

Those guys might less of an injury history but I tell you what, I feel a lot better about starting Gronk if he is healthy over all of those guys. Injuries can happen to anybody, I want the more talented guy who is saying he is healthy with no limitations at this point. 

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1 hour ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

Which draft strategy ?

 

Keeper league, this year we keep four players for next year. After that, each year the number of keepers goes down by one player until we re-draft and keep no one.  So, last year I traded another owner for his 1st round pick this year.  The draft was just re-drawn the other night and he got (you guessed it) the #1 pick, which means I have the number one pick, along with my drawn pick of the #3 draft slot.

 

So, which stategy do you guys prefer ? or is there another you prefer ?

 

Pick #1 David Johnson

Pick #3 Antonio Brown

Pick #18 Rob Gronkowski

Pick #23 Aaron Rodgers

OR

Pick #1 David Johnson

Pick#3 Antonio Brown

Pick#18 Best Available RB/WR

Pick# 23 Best available RB/WR

 

I am leaning towards the first scenario because it would give me the best player available at four different positions. (assuming all players are available when I draft, which is plausible given their current ADP)

 

 

 

 

I'd try to get Gronk because he is just a game changer, and wait on QB.  You could gamble with Luck, and if it pans out he is on par with Rodgers and your fourth pick opens up a solid RB2/WR2 which will make for a killer team.

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34 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

 

You would be drafting a RB like Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette or Lamar Miller 

 

You would be drafting a WR like DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper or Brandin Cooks. 

 

Those guys might less of an injury history but I tell you what, I feel a lot better about starting Gronk if he is healthy over all of those guys. Injuries can happen to anybody, I want the more talented guy who is saying he is healthy with no limitations at this point. 

I wasn't talking about this year ... this year Gronk's ADP is looking like a late 2nd round early 3rd round draft pick. 

Also all my drafts are the last week of August first week of September....

 

you must remember drafts ain't perfect they don't go per the rankings. Somebody will throw a curve and maybe a different RB or WR will be available. I like Cooper/Cooks & Baldwin over Gronk ... if you rather draft Gronk so be it. I sure ain't going to say you made a mistake ...

 

are you telling me Gronk is feeling great and he is in the best shape of his life?

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18 hours ago, burninglegs said:

What kind of math are you looking for? Unless one is expecting a repeat of 2011, his high ADP is not warranted vs. what else you can draft at the TE position later on in the draft. 

 

Since his big 2011 season, Gronk has only returned excess value based on ADP 2 out of the last 5 seasons, 40%.  

 

2012: Gronk ADP 19.7, finished TE5. Did not return value based on ADP and end production..

2013: Gronk ADP 44.4, finished as TE19. Did not return value based on ADP and end production.

2014: Gronk ADP 30, finished as TE1. Returned excess value based on ADP and end production.

2015: Gronk ADP 11.9, finished as TE1. Returned excess value based on ADP and end production.

2016: Gronk ADP 13.9 finished as TE26. Did not return value based on ADP and end production.

 

In 2013, Gronk as the TE19 scored -181.3 points less than TE1 (Graham). On a per game basis, Gronk was -1.5 ppg behind Graham.

In 2014, Gronk as TE1 scored + 32.5 points over TE2 (Graham). On a per game basis Gronk was +2.2 ppg ahead of Graham. 

In 2015, Gronk as TE1 scored + 7.4 points on the season more than TE2, Reed. On a per game basis Gronk was -0.7 ppg behind Reed who was the leader. 

In 2016, Gronk was -124 points behind the TE1 (Kelce) on season total points. On a per game basis, Gronk was -2.1 ppg behind the leader, Reed. 

 

In the last three seasons, Gronk has been a late 1st round to mid second round pick. The Kelce/Reed/Graham group tends to have been several rounds after him. In order to do proper "math" you would have to look at the combo of Gronk + a later round player vs. whatever player you would take in the 1st/second round instead of Gronk + a later round TE. Except for a monster 2011 like season from Gronk, the variance amongst TEs on a ppg basis just isn't that large.

 

Let me be very clear from the start, if your argument against Gronk is his health risk, you are 100% right, and there's no need to read any further.  I will absolutely not dispute his risk nor potential for an injury shortened season, resulting in a bad 'year end' rank that you so heavily focused on above.

 

Last year, in his healthy games with Tom Brady under center, Gronk averaged 18.9 points per game, making him the #1 TE in PPG. (PPR Scoring for everything in this post)

That would extrapolate to 303 on a full season.  I understand this is slightly unfair, but for 2017 I don't care how a hobbled Gronk produced with Jimmy G last year, it means absolutely nothing to me when evaluating or projecting him with Tom Brady under center for this season.

 

Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliot.

That's the entire list of players (5) who had more than Gronk's pace of 303 fantasy points last year.

Gronk in health, w/Brady, was on pace to be the 6th best non-QB in the game.

 

So...

In 2016, there were only 3 RBs and 2 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 302.4. (18.9 = #1 TE in PPG)

In 2015, there were only 1 RB and 8 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 272.6. (17.0 = #2 TE in PPG)

In 2014, there were only 4 RBs and 8 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 284.2. (17.8 = #1 TE in PPG)

In 2013, there were only 5 RBs and 11 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 279.3. (17.5 = #2 TE in PPG)

In 2012, there were only 3 RBs and 7 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 290.9. (18.2 = #1 TE in PPG)

In 2011, there were only 1 RB and 2 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 330.9. (20.7 = #1 TE in PPG)

 

When Gronk is on the field, he ABSOLUTELY represents a positional advantage.

 

In any given year, there will be a <convincing number> that will outscore <any early round stud of any position>.  It's a blatantly obvious bet to take 'the field' against any single player in fantasy.  Just because there are 5-6 RBs with potential to outscore Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson, doesn't mean you shouldn't draft Bell or DJ or that they aren't worth their ADP.  You aren't investing that heavily in players for a guaranteed #1 finish, you invest in them because you know their range of outcomes is the best in the game.  Julio Jones, OBJ, Mike Evans, are all just as likely to finish #1 on the season as Antonio Brown is... why do we still draft AB #1?  Because we all know, that Antonio Brown could have the worst year of his entire career, and is still likely going to be a top 10 WR.  So when we apply this to Gronk... I don't care if there's 1 random TE that outscores him in PPG every year, because in all 6 of the years above, Gronk was top 2.  More importantly, the #2 TE is rarely predicted (since Graham's departure of NO) whereas Gronk's success is never questioned, outside of health.

 

There's something to be said, about knowing what you're getting on draft day.  In Gronk, you know exactly what you're getting.  Sure we can spin numbers comparing Gronk to the #2 TE all you like, but by that same Logic we would have to say David Johnson isn't worth a 1st round pick, because he only outscored RB2 last year by -0.8 in PPG.  Antonio Brown isn't worth a 1st round pick because only outscored Jordy by 0.6 points total last year.  Comparing to nothing but the #2 player is of little consequence.

 

A lot of what you posted, despite being accurate, is hindsight and has no real merit in a pre-season discussion, in my opinion.  Sure Reed in '15 was a better investment than Gronk.  Just like Mike Thomas was a better investment than Antonio Brown last year, and Jay Ajayi was a better investment than Zeke Elliot.  Every single year, we can find these examples, but if you can't predict them BEFORE a draft, what good does that information do you in hindsight?  How dumb would I sound, saying DJ isn't worth a 1st round pick because an unknown player from the middle of the draft this year is going to offer top 6 production at the position... just don't ask me to predict who.  Because when we look back in hindsight, it's easy to say, pass on DJ/Bell, take Antonio and draft Gordon, Howard, and Ajayi!  Hindsight, in regards to draft preparation, means next to nothing.  Unless you can accurately tell me who THIS YEAR is going to make Gronk's investment a bad one, BEFORE the season happens... then it carries no value.

 

Using the data above, Gronk has averaged 18.3 PPG over the last 6 years.  In that same time frame he's averaged 10th overall (non-QB).

At that point, it doesn't matter what position he plays, or what his positional advantage is.  He's a top 10 PLAYER, period.

The only reason he's being drafted 20th overall, is because of his legitimate and valid, injury concerns.

 

If you believe he's healthy, he's 100% worth his draft price.

The next 2 WRs & RBs being drafted after him:

Doug Baldwin

TY Hilton

Leonard Fournette

Lamar Miller.

 

Baldwin just finished 8th overall... 15.6 PPG. Even his career best was 16.8 PPG in 2015.

TY Hilton just has his career best season, 5th overall, 17.0 PPG.

 

Gronk averaged 18.9 PPG last year, Reed was next closest with 14.2.

That's a 4.7 PPG advantage.

 

Do you know what the mismatch would have to be, in order for Baldwin or Hilton to outscore your opponent's WR by 4.7 Points?

15.6-4.7= 10.9.  Do you have any idea how far down the board you have to go, to find a WR only scoring 10.0 PPG, in order to feel like Baldwin over Gronk gave you a 'positional advantage'?  49 WRs last year averaged at least 10.9 points per game.  In order for Baldwin to give you the same PPG advantage Gronk did, your opponent needed to have a WR5 in their lineup.

 

Hilton did better though:

17-4.7=12.3

38 WRs averaged at least 12.3 PPG last year.

 

So, let me rephrase that 1 last way... The difference between Gronk and TE#2, is the difference between WR5 and WR38, or WR8 and WR49 in 2016.

Lamar Miller had a down year, so I'll use his 3 year average as a starter of 14.2 PPG.  14.2-4.7= 9.5 PPG.

44 RBs last year averaged at least 9.5 PPG.

Again, just for emphasis, the difference between Gronk and TE#2 is the same PPG difference as Lamar Miller and RB44.

 

And that's just the difference he offers over the #2 TE in the game.  The difference between Gronks 6 year average(18.3) and TE 12(11.1) last year? 7.2 fantasy points per game.  Unless you can show me math that supports this large of a PPG advantage that TY Hilton, Doug Baldwin, or Lamar Miller offer over the last WR you expect the Gronk owner to draft... then what in the world are we talking about here?

 

David Johnson just had the best fantasy RB season we've seen in a decade, since recently inducted Hall Of Famer LT back in 2006... and only outscored the #2 RB in the game by 3.8 PPG. And actually lost in PPG to L.Bell.

 

Greg Olsen is likely the most reliable TE on the fantasy board, when circling back to the value of predictability on draft day.

Year: Olsen - Gronk - PPG Advantage

2016: 12.8 - 18.9 - 6.1

2015: 14.3 - 17.0 - 2.7

2014: 13.8 - 17.8 - 4.0

2013: 11.9 - 17.5 - 5.6

2012: 11.5 - 18.2 - 6.7

2011: 8.1  - 20.7 - 12.6

 

Greg Olsen is currently being drafted in the 5th round. The WR alternates of this round are:

J.Landry, M.Bryant, L.Fitzgerald, J.Edelman, K.Benjamin, S.Watkins.

 

Now tell me if you think the 2nd round WR+Olsen will outscore the Gronk+5th round WR.

Because unless you think Hilton/Baldwin offer a 5 PPG (5 year average from above, 2011 excluded) advantage over Landry/Fitz ... then Gronk is 100% worth his current draft price, and absolutely offers you a better PPG advantage over ANY of the alternates currently available in that draft range.

 

One last time, just to be crystal clear, a lot of the data above, while accurate, is based on extrapolation.  But the current argue we're having is whether he provides a positional advantage when he's on the field.  If you don't think he can stay on the field, that is a completely reasonable, valid, and respectable standpoint, than can not, should not, and will not be argued by me.  If your issue with his price is his inability to stay on the field, I fully agree with you.  But do NOT tell me he's not a positional advantage when on the field, because it's a bold faced lie.

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2 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

why draft gronk when you can wait a few rounds and get travis kelce who doesnt have as much of an injury history and broke out in a big way last year. You gotta imagine that continues this year. That guy is ultra talented. 

I'm targeting Kelce in the 4th 

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3 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

I'm targeting Kelce in the 4th 

 

Then there's a good chance you'll miss him by one round...

 

6 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

why draft gronk when you can wait a few rounds and get travis kelce who doesnt have as much of an injury history and broke out in a big way last year. You gotta imagine that continues this year. That guy is ultra talented. 

 

Considering Gronk is going late 2, I don't see this happening, at least not consistently: in both mocks and money, I'm seeing owners bypass Watkins and Alshon and Hyde and ARob to take Kelce in the 3rd. Considering injury history of those four, and Kelce's role / skill, it doesn't seem like a bad move (with ARob, his health is solid, though he's essentially injured by Bortles... and possibly soon Henne)

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I have a PPR Keeper league. I can choose up to 3 players and they are used as my draft picks early on. I currently have Leveon Bell, Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery 

Do I keep all 3 and start my drafting in the 4th round at the 9th pick? Or, do I drop Alshon, and begin drafting in the 3rd round and go for RB (mixon) or WR?

Any advice would help

thanks so much

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24 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

why draft gronk when you can wait a few rounds and get travis kelce who doesnt have as much of an injury history and broke out in a big way last year. You gotta imagine that continues this year. That guy is ultra talented. 

because if Gronk is healthy the guy is money ... and then you have to look at the players right around Gronk's ADP (20's) ... would you rather have one of those guys @PolarBear named or Gronk?

 

lets play the game.... you have the 1st pick of the draft you pick David Johnson... your next pick is 24/25 ... Gronk is available do you take Gronk at 24/25? 

I pick Gronk everytime

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52 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Let me be very clear from the start, if your argument against Gronk is his health risk, you are 100% right, and there's no need to read any further.  I will absolutely not dispute his risk nor potential for an injury shortened season, resulting in a bad 'year end' rank that you so heavily focused on above.

 

Last year, in his healthy games with Tom Brady under center, Gronk averaged 18.9 points per game, making him the #1 TE in PPG. (PPR Scoring for everything in this post)

That would extrapolate to 303 on a full season.  I understand this is slightly unfair, but for 2017 I don't care how a hobbled Gronk produced with Jimmy G last year, it means absolutely nothing to me when evaluating or projecting him with Tom Brady under center for this season.

 

Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliot.

That's the entire list of players (5) who had more than Gronk's pace of 303 fantasy points last year.

Gronk in health, w/Brady, was on pace to be the 6th best non-QB in the game.

 

So...

In 2016, there were only 3 RBs and 2 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 302.4. (18.9 = #1 TE in PPG)

In 2015, there were only 1 RB and 8 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 272.6. (17.0 = #2 TE in PPG)

In 2014, there were only 4 RBs and 8 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 284.2. (17.8 = #1 TE in PPG)

In 2013, there were only 5 RBs and 11 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 279.3. (17.5 = #2 TE in PPG)

In 2012, there were only 3 RBs and 7 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 290.9. (18.2 = #1 TE in PPG)

In 2011, there were only 1 RB and 2 WRs who scored more than Gronk's pace of 330.9. (20.7 = #1 TE in PPG)

 

When Gronk is on the field, he ABSOLUTELY represents a positional advantage.

 

In any given year, there will be a <convincing number> that will outscore <any early round stud of any position>.  It's a blatantly obvious bet to take 'the field' against any single player in fantasy.  Just because there are 5-6 RBs with potential to outscore Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson, doesn't mean you shouldn't draft Bell or DJ or that they aren't worth their ADP.  You aren't investing that heavily in players for a guaranteed #1 finish, you invest in them because you know their range of outcomes is the best in the game.  Julio Jones, OBJ, Mike Evans, are all just as likely to finish #1 on the season as Antonio Brown is... why do we still draft AB #1?  Because we all know, that Antonio Brown could have the worst year of his entire career, and is still likely going to be a top 10 WR.  So when we apply this to Gronk... I don't care if there's 1 random TE that outscores him in PPG every year, because in all 6 of the years above, Gronk was top 2.  More importantly, the #2 TE is rarely predicted (since Graham's departure of NO) whereas Gronk's success is never questioned, outside of health.

 

There's something to be said, about knowing what you're getting on draft day.  In Gronk, you know exactly what you're getting.  Sure we can spin numbers comparing Gronk to the #2 TE all you like, but by that same Logic we would have to say David Johnson isn't worth a 1st round pick, because he only outscored RB2 last year by -0.8 in PPG.  Antonio Brown isn't worth a 1st round pick because only outscored Jordy by 0.6 points total last year.  Comparing to nothing but the #2 player is of little consequence.

 

A lot of what you posted, despite being accurate, is hindsight and has no real merit in a pre-season discussion, in my opinion.  Sure Reed in '15 was a better investment than Gronk.  Just like Mike Thomas was a better investment than Antonio Brown last year, and Jay Ajayi was a better investment than Zeke Elliot.  Every single year, we can find these examples, but if you can't predict them BEFORE a draft, what good does that information do you in hindsight?  How dumb would I sound, saying DJ isn't worth a 1st round pick because an unknown player from the middle of the draft this year is going to offer top 6 production at the position... just don't ask me to predict who.  Because when we look back in hindsight, it's easy to say, pass on DJ/Bell, take Antonio and draft Gordon, Howard, and Ajayi!  Hindsight, in regards to draft preparation, means next to nothing.  Unless you can accurately tell me who THIS YEAR is going to make Gronk's investment a bad one, BEFORE the season happens... then it carries no value.

 

Using the data above, Gronk has averaged 18.3 PPG over the last 6 years.  In that same time frame he's averaged 10th overall (non-QB).

At that point, it doesn't matter what position he plays, or what his positional advantage is.  He's a top 10 PLAYER, period.

The only reason he's being drafted 20th overall, is because of his legitimate and valid, injury concerns.

 

If you believe he's healthy, he's 100% worth his draft price.

The next 2 WRs & RBs being drafted after him:

Doug Baldwin

TY Hilton

Leonard Fournette

Lamar Miller.

 

Baldwin just finished 8th overall... 15.6 PPG. Even his career best was 16.8 PPG in 2015.

TY Hilton just has his career best season, 5th overall, 17.0 PPG.

 

Gronk averaged 18.9 PPG last year, Reed was next closest with 14.2.

That's a 4.7 PPG advantage.

 

Do you know what the mismatch would have to be, in order for Baldwin or Hilton to outscore your opponent's WR by 4.7 Points?

15.6-4.7= 10.9.  Do you have any idea how far down the board you have to go, to find a WR only scoring 10.0 PPG, in order to feel like Baldwin over Gronk gave you a 'positional advantage'?  49 WRs last year averaged at least 10.9 points per game.  In order for Baldwin to give you the same PPG advantage Gronk did, your opponent needed to have a WR5 in their lineup.

 

Hilton did better though:

17-4.7=12.3

38 WRs averaged at least 12.3 PPG last year.

 

So, let me rephrase that 1 last way... The difference between Gronk and TE#2, is the difference between WR5 and WR38, or WR8 and WR49 in 2016.

Lamar Miller had a down year, so I'll use his 3 year average as a starter of 14.2 PPG.  14.2-4.7= 9.5 PPG.

44 RBs last year averaged at least 9.5 PPG.

Again, just for emphasis, the difference between Gronk and TE#2 is the same PPG difference as Lamar Miller and RB44.

 

And that's just the difference he offers over the #2 TE in the game.  The difference between Gronks 6 year average(18.3) and TE 12(11.1) last year? 7.2 fantasy points per game.  Unless you can show me math that supports this large of a PPG advantage that TY Hilton, Doug Baldwin, or Lamar Miller offer over the last WR you expect the Gronk owner to draft... then what in the world are we talking about here?

 

David Johnson just had the best fantasy RB season we've seen in a decade, since recently inducted Hall Of Famer LT back in 2006... and only outscored the #2 RB in the game by 3.8 PPG. And actually lost in PPG to L.Bell.

 

Greg Olsen is likely the most reliable TE on the fantasy board, when circling back to the value of predictability on draft day.

Year: Olsen - Gronk - PPG Advantage

2016: 12.8 - 18.9 - 6.1

2015: 14.3 - 17.0 - 2.7

2014: 13.8 - 17.8 - 4.0

2013: 11.9 - 17.5 - 5.6

2012: 11.5 - 18.2 - 6.7

2011: 8.1  - 20.7 - 12.6

 

Greg Olsen is currently being drafted in the 5th round. The WR alternates of this round are:

J.Landry, M.Bryant, L.Fitzgerald, J.Edelman, K.Benjamin, S.Watkins.

 

Now tell me if you think the 2nd round WR+Olsen will outscore the Gronk+5th round WR.

Because unless you think Hilton/Baldwin offer a 5 PPG (5 year average from above, 2011 excluded) advantage over Landry/Fitz ... then Gronk is 100% worth his current draft price, and absolutely offers you a better PPG advantage over ANY of the alternates currently available in that draft range.

 

One last time, just to be crystal clear, a lot of the data above, while accurate, is based on extrapolation.  But the current argue we're having is whether he provides a positional advantage when he's on the field.  If you don't think he can stay on the field, that is a completely reasonable, valid, and respectable standpoint, than can not, should not, and will not be argued by me.  If your issue with his price is his inability to stay on the field, I fully agree with you.  But do NOT tell me he's not a positional advantage when on the field, because it's a bold faced lie.

 

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

I wasn't talking about this year ... this year Gronk's ADP is looking like a late 2nd round early 3rd round draft pick. 

Also all my drafts are the last week of August first week of September....

 

you must remember drafts ain't perfect they don't go per the rankings. Somebody will throw a curve and maybe a different RB or WR will be available. I like Cooper/Cooks & Baldwin over Gronk ... if you rather draft Gronk so be it. I sure ain't going to say you made a mistake ...

 

are you telling me Gronk is feeling great and he is in the best shape of his life?

 

I know that all reports say he looks like Gronk and BB said he has no limitations.  That's better than where he was at physically before the start of last season. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

because if Gronk is healthy the guy is money ... and then you have to look at the players right around Gronk's ADP (20's) ... would you rather have one of those guys @PolarBear named or Gronk?

 

lets play the game.... you have the 1st pick of the draft you pick David Johnson... your next pick is 24/25 ... Gronk is available do you take Gronk at 24/25? 

I pick Gronk everytime

 

Because Gronk has had a million back surgeries and extensive injury history. Brady now doesn't have to rely on him as much with Brandin Cooks in town and all the weapons around. Why not wait one round and grab Kelce who is a younger version of gronk without all the injury history. Gronk is good but just seems very risky. 

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2 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Because Gronk has had a million back surgeries and extensive injury history. Brady now doesn't have to rely on him as much with Brandin Cooks in town and all the weapons around. Why not wait one round and grab Kelce who is a younger version of gronk without all the injury history. Gronk is good but just seems very risky. 

 

As @psygolf likes to say, you don't have squatters rights on any player.

 

Also, you're fooling yourself if you think Gronk won't get fed because of Cooks. If anything, the presence of a speedy deap threat like Cooks will only open things up more for Gronk and Edelman over the middle. But, make no mistake. Gronk represents the biggest mismatch to the opposing defense, and Brady will find him every time. 

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9 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Because Gronk has had a million back surgeries and extensive injury history. Brady now doesn't have to rely on him as much with Brandin Cooks in town and all the weapons around. Why not wait one round and grab Kelce who is a younger version of gronk without all the injury history. Gronk is good but just seems very risky. 

I agree Gronk has had some injuries ...

so back to the game --- who are you taking at 24/25? Remember you had the 1st pick of the draft you took DJ

I can't see Kelce being available at 48/49 when it rolls back

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Also Kelce's big year last year still only netted him 223 PPR points - making the jump to being a 275-300 fpts TE like a healthy Gronk would be is still just a wet dream for Kelce. 

 

Like FFC said, you can not like Gronk based on injury history, but on output at TE he's unmatched. Saying "why not wait a round and take Kelce" is like saying "why take Bell when you can wait a round for Howard?". One just doesn't have the ceiling of the other.  

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Are we really arguing over whether Gronk healthy gives one an positional advantage? If I were guaranteed full health for Gronk for 16 weeks I would take him no lower than sixth overall and he would be a real candidate for the number one overall pick.  I would probably end up ranking him third or fourth.

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I guess it all depends on whether you believe Gronk's health comes into play this season, because I don't think anyone can or should be questioning his talent and the overall positional advantage he brings when healthy. For me, at least this year, I think he stays healthy, He is due (whatever that means).

 

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Anyone who wasn't planning on drafting Elliott in the 2nd round considering drafting him in the 2nd if he was about to fall all the way back to the DJohnson/Bell owners in the second round? Playing defense to those two owners

 

If Elliott gets his suspension reduce.. everyone in the league woul be playing for 2nd place

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3 minutes ago, Woonga24 said:

Anyone who wasn't planning on drafting Elliott in the 2nd round considering drafting him in the 2nd if he was about to fall all the way back to the DJohnson/Bell owners in the second round? Playing defense to those two owners

 

If Elliott gets his suspension reduce.. everyone in the league woul be playing for 2nd place

 

Heck no. That assumes that both DJ/Bell and Zeke repeat their 2016 seasons without getting hurt. The odds of that are LOW, not high. Note: DJ has plenty of room to regress and remain the #1 RB, but assuming that he won't regress at all as if it's a given is unwise. 

 

I'd love it if the DJ owner wasted a 2nd rd pick on a player who won't be available until week 8. Especially if only 4 of the 12 teams make the playoffs. 

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6 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

As @psygolf likes to say, you don't have squatters rights on any player.

 

Also, you're fooling yourself if you think Gronk won't get fed because of Cooks. If anything, the presence of a speedy deap threat like Cooks will only open things up more for Gronk and Edelman over the middle. But, make no mistake. Gronk represents the biggest mismatch to the opposing defense, and Brady will find him every time. 

Maybe I'll post my 2017 "I'll just draft this player next rd" team for everyone.

 

 

 

...later.

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9 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Because Gronk has had a million back surgeries and extensive injury history. Brady now doesn't have to rely on him as much with Brandin Cooks in town and all the weapons around. Why not wait one round and grab Kelce who is a younger version of gronk without all the injury history. Gronk is good but just seems very risky. 

 

All of 5 months younger.

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