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2017 General Draft Strategies


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10 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

giphy.gif

 

Be honest, how far into FFCollusion's giant-sized post did you get before post the JStew BOOM?

 

My guess is "Gronk averaged 18.9 points per game," beginning of the second paragraph. How'd I do?

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Have been in a PPR snake redraft league for six years now, and we decided to add 1 keeper for next year.  Has to be taken after the 5th round.  Lose the pick 1 round ahead of where player was taken.

 

Question is, would you have let this play into your draft strategy at all? If so, how?  

 

I ended up bumping Corey Stewart up my ranks a bit and taking him in the 11th, but otherwise I ignored keeper possibilities altogether.    

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2 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Be honest, how far into FFCollusion's giant-sized post did you get before post the JStew BOOM?

 

My guess is "Gronk averaged 18.9 points per game," beginning of the second paragraph. How'd I do?

 

This is the second time you've made reference to me not liking or reading long posts, and I'm not sure why. If you're implying something negative, kindly buzz off. If not, to answer your question, I appreciated the entire post for the stats and facts.

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13 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Every single year, we can find these examples, but if you can't predict them BEFORE a draft, what good does that information do you in hindsight?  How dumb would I sound, saying DJ isn't worth a 1st round pick because an unknown player from the middle of the draft this year is going to offer top 6 production at the position... just don't ask me to predict who.  Because when we look back in hindsight, it's easy to say, pass on DJ/Bell, take Antonio and draft Gordon, Howard, and Ajayi!  Hindsight, in regards to draft preparation, means next to nothing.  Unless you can accurately tell me who THIS YEAR is going to make Gronk's investment a bad one, BEFORE the season happens... then it carries no value.

 

I feel like people are finally starting to get this. 

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2 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

This is the second time you've made reference to me not liking or reading long posts, and I'm not sure why. If you're implying something negative, kindly buzz off. If not, to answer your question, I appreciated the entire post for the stats and facts.

 

Please take no offense, I value your insights. It's just that you yourself have made a reference or two regarding not reading an entire post or feeling too lazy to read a full post, yet your responses in those cases were still on the money. And when you made those references, I thought it was funny, doubly so because I believe you read/edit as a profession. Always looking to boost the humor; I'll refrain henceforth (from comments regarding reading posts, not from the humor).

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Heading into a draft/auction with probably the shallowest bench settings I have ever played in, to the point its actually affecting how I approach my team and the draft.  12-team, pretty standard starting lineup configuration 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1nonQBFlx K DEF

 

But...only 4 bench spots....has me rethinking my typical QB and TE strategy, so really want to only roster 1 each for now.  So normal league I never overinvest into QB or TE usually get 2 or sometimes even 3 value guys who I like their upside.  But I dont have the bench for that strategy, mostly has to be tied up with WR/RB for those 4 spots I would assume.  

 

Is Winston a set it and forget itQB?  I have him on the cheap and doesnt have a bye til week 11 which helps with these settings. 

Would these settings make one invest more than normal into a QB1 and TE1?  That is kind of how I am viewing it.  

Edited by parrothead
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12 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Like FFC said, you can not like Gronk based on injury history, but on output at TE he's unmatched. Saying "why not wait a round and take Kelce" is like saying "why take Bell when you can wait a round for Howard?". One just doesn't have the ceiling of the other.  

 

I'd argue that we haven't seen Kelce's ceiling and it might be higher if Mahomes starts.

 

That's not an endorsement of Kelce over Gronk for 2017, just an observation.  

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36 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Please take no offense, I value your insights. It's just that you yourself have made a reference or two regarding not reading an entire post or feeling too lazy to read a full post, yet your responses in those cases were still on the money. And when you made those references, I thought it was funny, doubly so because I believe you read/edit as a profession. Always looking to boost the humor; I'll refrain henceforth (from comments regarding reading posts, not from the humor).

 

If I made those comments, it was likely just busting @FFCollusion's balls. I'll call someone out if they're being unnecessarily longwinded, but if the information is good and the poster is making points with stats and facts, I don't care about the length of the post.

Edited by mrblonde1984
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49 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I feel like people are finally starting to get this. 

I agree, annoying to see "draft strategies". I drafted DJ and McCoy in a 14 team and 12 team last year (4th pick in both) and won the champships. In the 14 team, I took Brady in 5th round. If someone had taken DJ, I would maybe taken Gurley or a WR. If Brady wasn't suspended, I would not have gotten him. Either case.. 1 misstep and I would not have DJ or Brady.

 

You just never know.. go with your gut/research/rankings... and best luck.

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1 minute ago, maxim730 said:

I agree, annoying to see "draft strategies". I drafted DJ and McCoy in a 14 team and 12 team last year (4th pick in both) and won the champships. In the 14 team, I took Brady in 5th round. If someone had taken DJ, I would maybe taken Gurley or a WR. If Brady wasn't suspended, I would not have gotten him. Either case.. 1 misstep and I would not have DJ or Brady.

 

You just never know.. go with your gut/research/rankings... and best luck.

Its really tough to go back each year and say "I coulda done this"  a lot of times be it football, baseball, etc most of the time you have tiers and sometimes in those next tier or two down, you get RB1 or WR1 production but for each of those guys, you also have some serious duds.    

 

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Heading into a draft/auction with probably the shallowest bench settings I have ever played in, to the point its actually affecting how I approach my team and the draft.  12-team, pretty standard starting lineup configuration 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1nonQBFlx K DEF

 

But...only 4 bench spots....has me rethinking my typical QB and TE strategy, so really want to only roster 1 each for now.  So normal league I never overinvest into QB or TE usually get 2 or sometimes even 3 value guys who I like their upside.  But I dont have the bench for that strategy, mostly has to be tied up with WR/RB for those 4 spots I would assume.  

 

Is Winston a set it and forget itQB?  I have him on the cheap and doesnt have a bye til week 11 which helps with these settings. 

Would these settings make one invest more than normal into a QB1 and TE1?  That is kind of how I am viewing it.  

 

I play in a short bench league just like this. It doesn't change your qb strategy much.    Nobody else has room to roster multiple qbs either, so the WW will usually contain a couple qbs having a big year.    Last year Ryan and Mariota were FAs for multiple weeks.   Cuffing is more important too, as is balanced roster construction. you don't have space to grab prospects who can't contribute soon.  

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Heading into a draft/auction with probably the shallowest bench settings I have ever played in, to the point its actually affecting how I approach my team and the draft.  12-team, pretty standard starting lineup configuration 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1nonQBFlx K DEF

 

But...only 4 bench spots....has me rethinking my typical QB and TE strategy, so really want to only roster 1 each for now.  So normal league I never overinvest into QB or TE usually get 2 or sometimes even 3 value guys who I like their upside.  But I dont have the bench for that strategy, mostly has to be tied up with WR/RB for those 4 spots I would assume.  

 

Is Winston a set it and forget itQB?  I have him on the cheap and doesnt have a bye til week 11 which helps with these settings. 

Would these settings make one invest more than normal into a QB1 and TE1?  That is kind of how I am viewing it.  

 

I heard on a podcast that Winston only had 6 of 16 weeks as a top 12 QB so I wouldn't say he is but that said he may take a big step forward in his 3rd year along with DJax and Howard added to the offense. Also with a 4 man bench I could see QB's being on waivers alot more then a normal league so if Winston remains inconsistent there should be replacements to grab. That said I would look to buy a set and forget QB if you can get one for a good value but if not take a high upside one like Winston and if he struggles there should be guys in free agency. I would try to get a set and forget TE and only have to worry about that position on his bye week.

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Is Winston a set it and forget it QB?

I've been of this mind state for a few years, and 2017 in no different in my opinion... There are only 3 QBs in the entire league who qualify as set it and forget QBs.  Rodgers, Brees, and Brady.  Any given year, someone can earn their way into this group mid-season, (Luck in '14, Cam in '15, Ryan in '16) but on draft day, you shouldn't assume any QB outside of these 3 is set and forget.

 

15 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Assuming we are playing in a 12 team league.

What pick will  @FFCollusion draft Gronk? What is the earliest you will make the pick?

Given the way I prepare for a draft, it's extremely hard for me to answer this for you in a clear cut, black and white, manner.  It would really depend on your draft spot, league size, and understanding what your target players are later in the draft, compared to the potential alternatives you could acquire later on.  I can tell you I have Gronk ranked 14th overall as of today.  7 WRs (AB, OBJ, Evans, JJ, AJG, Dez, Jordy) and 6 RBs (LB, DJ, Freeman, McCoy, Ajayi, Murray).

But, that doesn't mean I would automatically draft him there.  In my opinion, you have to look at the entire draft board, and when considering players, understand that every round is only, at the least, half of the picture. 

 

Let me attempt to give an example:

Let's say in a 12 team PPR league, I have the 10th spot.  That means my 2nd round pick will be 15th overall.  Based on ADP that should give me these 3 options: Gronk, Dez, or Ajayi.  In order for me to make this decision, I have to look further down the board.  Looking at these 3 in a vacuum won't really help you decide what the best draft investment is.  So glancing down the board, or using mock draft results, you ask yourself; realistically if I don't take Gronk here, what's my next TE target?  For me the answer is J.Graham in the 5th.  I have Graham and Kelce in the same tier, so that makes Kelce a DND for me, because he's priced a full round higher than Graham, and I have them both ahead of Olsen, which makes him a DND for me too, because he's being drafted ahead of Graham.  So now I have a a TE target, and you need to do the same for WR and RB.  Every decision you make (at the very least for QB and TE) should be a 2 round comparison, and never in a vacuum.  From there you have to decide, which combo gives you the highest points per week?

 

Option 1: Gronk + S.Watkins or A.Abdullah

Option 2: J.Graham + J.Ajayi or Dez Bryant

 

This one is pretty tough for me, A: Because I used 2 players I have ranked ahead of Gronk already for the example and B: I think J.Graham is an absolute steal this year.

 

For most people, the answer is obviously Option 2.  Because in their head, the gap from Ajayi to Ameer is massive. Did you know that Ajayi only outscored Ameer by 1.1 PPG last year?  Ameer only played 2 games, and Ajayi wasn't the starter for 4 games, so that's cheating, but still worth considering.

 

But... not a lot of people are on the Dez train this year.  So for some people, they could say Watkins alone could outscore Dez, and they still get Gronk over Graham.  In their mind Option 1 has both of the better players.  I can't decide which players are better for your team and this is just one example.  I can skew the comparison either way with players I do or don't like more.

 

If I have to decide between Gronk+B.Marshall vs J.Graham and D.Baldwin, I'm taking the Gronk side every time.  If I'm deciding between Gronk+Ingram vs Gurley and Graham... again, give me Gronk.  It's impossible to answer this question in a vacuum.  Only you know which players you like, or don't like.  Only you know what's available to you when you're on the clock.

 

As I've said before... Rankings are a static, but a draft is dynamic.

We rank in a vacuum but we do not draft in one.  Every time one player comes off the board, it alters the odds of what can happen for the rest of the draft.  Similar to a deck of cards, every time 1 card is flipped over, the odds for the rest of the deck are changed.  We all know what cards are in the deck, just like we all know what players are in the draft, but every time 1 is removed from the pool, the odds change.

 

I don't think ranking sheets should be used as a draft list.  That's not how the game works in my opinion.  You want to have an understanding of the entire draft, and make an educated decision in each round, with the big picture in mind.  Gronk could play 16 games, go on to be the #1 TE, and a top 10 player... but if he doesn't outscore Graham by more than Ajayi outscores Ameer... was it a good draft pick?

Yes and no.  There is value in predictable and reliable success.

Even if Gronk doesn't end the year as the #1 TE, but finishes #2, I could argue he was still a great pick in the 2nd round, because A: I knew what I was getting B: he helped me avoid a bust and C: He produced relative to the cost required to obtain him.

 

People often get too caught up in value on this board in my opinion.

Graham may be a better value than Gronk, Snead may be a better value than M.Thomas, Crowder might be a better value than Pryor, and T.West might be a better value than D.Woodhead... but as long as your <x> round pick, scores <x> round points... does it matter?

 

14 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

you don't have squatters rights on any player.

 

I want to tie this in to my thoughts above.  While I agree, you don't have 'rights' to any player in any round (except the #1 pick), it's an absolute necessary tool for valuing players.  I might never get Jimmy Graham in a draft, but his price and existence are justifiable causes to overlook Kelce and Olsen in my opinion.  I might not land Drew Brees, but just the knowledge of the possibility, reduces the value of Tom Brady a round earlier.  You can do this on and on down the draft board.  Whether you are guaranteed a player or not, has no effect on how it alters our perspective of value and worth in the draft.  Someone might think Ebron is a top 5 TE this year, that they can have in the 11th round.  Regardless of whether they get him in the 11th, regardless of whether he even finishes top 5... that's a logical and reasonable thought process, that would lead to the conclusion that Gronk isn't worth a 2nd round pick for them.

 

QBs are the easiest way to drive this point home, and readdress the above point of comparing 2 rounds together.  Why do you pass on Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd round?  You aren't guaranteed Brady in the 4th, Brees in the 5th, or even Cousins in the 9th... but the mere knowledge that it's a possibility, is enough for us to pass on the guarantee of Rodgers in the 3rd.  Rodgers outscored Cousins by 4.4 PPG last year (Yahoo default)

Rodgers+E.Lacy vs Cousins+I.Crowell?

Do you think Crow outscores Lacy by 4.4 points?

Lacy scored 7.8PPG in the 5 pitiful games he played last year.  Crow averaged 10.3.  Only a 2.5PPG gap.

That means, even if we assume Lacy doesn't improve ANY.  Crow would have to rush for an additional 304 yards this season (1,248) just to match the 4.4PPG gap of the QBs.

 

This is the type of math that has lead to the Zero RB mentality over the past few years.  The PPG gaps between RBs who aren't top 5 at their position... is no where near as big as people think, in order to justify the massive over-investment we put into them.

 

This years last reminder, that 63 yards 1 week (6.3 points) and 63 yards +1 TD (12.3 points) the next week, is 1,008 rushing yards, and 8 TDs on the season.  Which is only 148.8 fantasy points, even if we ignore ANY involvement in the passing game...  Only 21 RBs outscored 148.8 fantasy points last year.  Only 14 RBs in the game had 8 TDs, only 12 RBs in the game had 1,000 yards, and only 7 RBs had 1,000 yards rushing AND 8TDs...

That same 6.3 and 12.3 back and forth, is only 9.3 PPG.

 

49 Runningbacks averaged at least 9.3 PPG last year.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Did you know that Ajayi only outscored Ameer by 1.1 PPG last year?  Ameer only played 2 games, and Ajayi wasn't the starter for 4 games, so that's cheating, but still worth considering.

 

I'm wondering how you came up with this ? Ameer only played in two games scoring 22 the first game and 3 the second (depending on your settings) the rest of the year he scored 0, which extrapolates to about 1.6 PPG while Ajayi averaged 14 points per game. Did you average Ameer's stats for the rest of the year using the first two games  or something?

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12 minutes ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

 

I'm wondering how you came up with this ? Ameer only played in two games scoring 22 the first game and 3 the second (depending on your settings) the rest of the year he scored 0, which extrapolates to about 1.6 PPG while Ajayi averaged 14 points per game. Did you average Ameer's stats for the rest of the year using the first two games  or something?

PPG means points per game "played" he's simply just using Ameer's first 2 games avg. 

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12 minutes ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

Ameer only played in two games scoring 22 the first game and 3 the second (depending on your settings) the rest of the year he scored 0, which extrapolates to about 1.6 PPG...

 

1d19844.gif

 

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2 hours ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

Nevermind, I think I figured out that you just took the two games he played in and divided by the 25 total points, which wouls have him averaging 12.5 PPG. Not sure I agree with the methoology considering such a small sample size.

 

Yeah, I mean I think FFC was pretty clear in pointing out the sample size and issues with the calculation. I don't think it was meant to say Abdullah is Ajayi's equal, he's just trying to say he feels there might be some later RB value. 

 

Its a bit of a stretch, but if Ajayi has RB1 value and Abdullah is going 3-4 rounds later, but they have similar PPG, then the injury is what is discounting AA's value. But if we can't predict injuries then this year AA could play 16 games and be going in the 1st/2nd round next year, in theory. 

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48 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Yeah, I mean I think FFC was pretty clear in pointing out the sample size and issues with the calculation. I don't think it was meant to say Abdullah is Ajayi's equal, he's just trying to say he feels there might be some later RB value. 

 

Its a bit of a stretch, but if Ajayi has RB1 value and Abdullah is going 3-4 rounds later, but they have similar PPG, then the injury is what is discounting AA's value. But if we can't predict injuries then this year AA could play 16 games and be going in the 1st/2nd round next year, in theory. 

 

Hey, I gotcha. At the time I was trying to watch a game, eat a snack, and yell at a kid, so I was somewhat distracted when I first scanned the thread. I happened to also be on a ESPN league and looking at players where I saw PPG. It said Ammeer's was 1.6 and I took it as gospel without thinking about it being calculated differently. I went back and read the whole post a little later and said ok, yeah that makes more sense. It's all good.

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How much does other leaguemates keeper decisions effect your own keeper selections? If you know a majority of the league is going to keep their stud RB or WR does influence your keeper choice? For example, I'm in a league where 5 of the Top 10 RB's will be kept so there will be slim pickens at the draft so by not keeping a guy like DJ means he would likely go for $70+ and not a very high probability of getting him back.

 

Im not trying to make this a personal question as I know there is a separate section on the forum for specifics. But I wanted to get your insight how you've handled this draft strategy dillema in the past?

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4 hours ago, Tcann66 said:

How much does other leaguemates keeper decisions effect your own keeper selections? If you know a majority of the league is going to keep their stud RB or WR does influence your keeper choice? For example, I'm in a league where 5 of the Top 10 RB's will be kept so there will be slim pickens at the draft so by not keeping a guy like DJ means he would likely go for $70+ and not a very high probability of getting him back.

 

Im not trying to make this a personal question as I know there is a separate section on the forum for specifics. But I wanted to get your insight how you've handled this draft strategy dillema in the past?

If you know there is going to be inflation at a position because a bunch are keeping that position, then it can affect what you do.  Maybe you are deciding between two players in normal circumstances who are fairly equal, but given what others are doing one position has a different look and value to it.  

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In a shallow bench league (4 spots) I am not sure why anyone would pay more than $1 for Kicker or Defense,last night in this auction with a 4 spot bench, people were paying $5-6 for kickers and defenses and I felt like asking them which QB-WR-RB on their 4-person bench are they going to drop to pick up a replacement kicker or defense when that team is on the bye?  

 

Im not a fan of the shallow bench and this was a change for this league and really the first time I had ever been in a league with bench that shallow, so maybe my thought was wrong, for me personally I usually dont even get a kicker or defense in the auction, usually I will go a lottery ticket or two then add a K/DEF the week of game 1, but to spend more than a $1 and think you might actually carry more than 1 of these at any given time?  Was a bit of a head scratcher.   Even the teams who made heavy investments into QB's and TE's I thought were making some mistakes in paying for backups at these spots.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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