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10 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

just finished my first draft of the year- full ppr. Oh man are there a lot of solid WRs this year. Super deep. Abs on the other hand? After round 5/6 huge drop off to rookies like hunt that are backups trying to win the job. My next draft is standard and I gotta go more rb early on. 

This is what I have seen in mocks as well. Anyone with the 1 or 2 pick going rb-rb-rb and pairing DJ or Bell with Zeke and another best available back and then stock piling WRs after that?  Seems it would give you a huge week to week advantage at the position, especially once Zeke is back.

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20 hours ago, ponchsox said:

I'm picking #5 in PPR and will most likely go with McCoy or Freeman and then go WR/WR in 2 and 3. Targeting Kelce in the 4th. I'd be fine with someone like Powell as my RB2 as long as my RB1 is rock solid.

 

I'm kind of looking at Freeman at 6 myself (unless the ODB injury drops him to me). It kind feels like the right pick, but there is almost zero upside. I'm also targeting a WR like a Baldwin on the wrap, but after that I think you have to take a shot on some upside guys (a Bryant/Hill at wr, Ware/Gilly/Martin at rb..just to name names) to make up the points you are losing out on with safer types early on (or grab a Dez type round 2 with risk/reward). 

 

The middle round pick values have gotten destroyed this off-season. McCoy's found himself on a sinking ship, Zeke suspended, and a guy like AJ Green lost his two best o-lineman (Dalton stinks when pressured). And ODB hurt. Devonta Freeman's had like a 2 week concussion and is a 230ish carry back getting only 55-60% of snaps - yet he might be the pick. Just wild. 

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1 hour ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

I'm kind of looking at Freeman at 6 myself (unless the ODB injury drops him to me). It kind feels like the right pick, but there is almost zero upside. I'm also targeting a WR like a Baldwin on the wrap, but after that I think you have to take a shot on some upside guys (a Bryant/Hill at wr, Ware/Gilly/Martin at rb..just to name names) to make up the points you are losing out on with safer types early on (or grab a Dez type round 2 with risk/reward). 

 

The middle round pick values have gotten destroyed this off-season. McCoy's found himself on a sinking ship, Zeke suspended, and a guy like AJ Green lost his two best o-lineman (Dalton stinks when pressured). And ODB hurt. Devonta Freeman's had like a 2 week concussion and is a 230ish carry back getting only 55-60% of snaps - yet he might be the pick. Just wild. 

Maybe Evans is the safe pick there?

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36 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

Maybe Evans is the safe pick there?

 

I've considered Evans. I think DJax helps draw attention away from Mike, and thus raises his catch % since he might run a few less deep routes (which should offset some target loss concerns). That might hurt his ypr, but he should still be good for 80+ catches 1100+ yards and a good shot at 10 td's. 

 

Let's be honest, it's pretty jumbled though. I think the guy you can draft at 11 you can reasonably take at 6. Kind of sucks picking in the middle this year lol. Jordy, AJ, Evans, McCoy, Freeman, and Gordon all have reasons to, and not to be picked. 

 

My numbers are telling me take Jordy, the #1 receiver for a HOF QB. My gut is telling me to ignore o-line/injury concerns, and just take AJ Green because I want to own him and he's damn good. My brain is telling me to do what's made me successful, draft a rb round 1, make up loss of points by grabbing Gronk in 2nd or Rodgers in 3rd (giving me a positional advantage), and then load up on solid wr's and rb2 types later on. Kind of don't like the rb's avail (Freeman, Gordon, McCoy) but I've noticed that drafting an rb first makes everything easier. 

 

Full disclosure - I only have two leagues this year, so I've been over-analyzing the crap out of this. And as much crap as I've looked at, I'll be honest I'm not closer to having a real decision. Draft is 3 days away haha...

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5 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

I've considered Evans. I think DJax helps draw attention away from Mike, and thus raises his catch % since he might run a few less deep routes (which should offset some target loss concerns). That might hurt his ypr, but he should still be good for 80+ catches 1100+ yards and a good shot at 10 td's. 

 

Let's be honest, it's pretty jumbled though. I think the guy you can draft at 11 you can reasonably take at 6. Kind of sucks picking in the middle this year lol. Jordy, AJ, Evans, McCoy, Freeman, and Gordon all have reasons to, and not to be picked. 

 

My numbers are telling me take Jordy, the #1 receiver for a HOF QB. My gut is telling me to ignore o-line/injury concerns, and just take AJ Green because I want to own him and he's damn good. My brain is telling me to do what's made me successful, draft a rb round 1, make up loss of points by grabbing Gronk in 2nd or Rodgers in 3rd (giving me a positional advantage), and then load up on solid wr's and rb2 types later on. Kind of don't like the rb's avail (Freeman, Gordon, McCoy) but I've noticed that drafting an rb first makes everything easier. 

 

Full disclosure - I only have two leagues this year, so I've been over-analyzing the crap out of this. And as much crap as I've looked at, I'll be honest I'm not closer to having a real decision. Draft is 3 days away haha...

My draft is tomorrow. I'm just going to have fun, draft the guys I want, and stop worrying about ADP.

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Round 4 of this year is just a complete cluster f---. Just no real good options per ADP. I'm usually one to wait on QB, but Brady if he falls to the 4th or even Brees at the end of the 4th are looking like good options. Otherwise, it is just one huge mine field to try and navigate. Might even be better to just jump ahead and pick one of my ADP round 5 guys that I really like. 

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9 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

Round 4 of this year is just a complete cluster f---. Just no real good options per ADP. I'm usually one to wait on QB, but Brady if he falls to the 4th or even Brees at the end of the 4th are looking like good options. Otherwise, it is just one huge mine field to try and navigate. Might even be better to just jump ahead and pick one of my ADP round 5 guys that I really like. 

 

 

Are you in standard or ppr? My $$ league is standard and this is pretty much how I feel about the end of the 2nd and 3rd round.

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I am very afraid to invest in Allen Robinson even though he is an elite receiver. I have him 30th overall but the more I see of Bortles the more I want to move him down. The targets will be there but his efficiency is going to be awful. Is he really a top 40 pick?

 

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#1 pick in my 12 team PPR league. We play 2rb/3wr/TE/Flex. 

 

Wanted to see what you guys thought of my strategy... 

 

#1 - DJ - Easy pick for me

 

2/3 turn (Picks 24,25) - Looking WR/WR as I think there's some good options at RB at 4/5

 

4/5 turn (48,49) - if successful going WR/WR, I might go RB/RB. 

 

6/7 (72,73) - If I don't take a RB, I am hoping I can fill out my wideouts 

Edited by phatrat
Specific targets removed. This is a General Draft strategy thread.
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9 minutes ago, Random Dude said:

#1 pick in my 12 team PPR league. We play 2rb/3wr/TE/Flex. 

 

Wanted to see what you guys thought of my strategy... 

 

#1 - DJ - Easy pick for me

 

2/3 turn (Picks 24,25) - Looking WR/WR as I think there's some good options at RB at 4/5

 

4/5 turn (48,49) - if successful going WR/WR, I might go RB/RB. 

 

6/7 (72,73) - If I don't take a RB, I am hoping I can fill out my wideouts 

depends who is available.  hard to stick to a strategy like this without knowing how the draft is going to go....

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17 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

Yes, but that's because I think it's vital to get a RB in one of the 1st 3 rounds... they drop off a cliff after that.

 

For someone like me, who has 3rd pick in a 10 team 0.5ppr, I'll likely need to grab a RB at the 2/3 turn after getting AB in the first. If not, I'll be looking at my RB1 at the end of the 4th round... who knows what will be left to pick from.  I'm hoping Gurley (who I'm high on) falls to me at the 18th pick, then I'm free to choose a WR in 3rd round and get some of that value you're talking about.

Exactly. (I'm getting high on gurely too btw with Watkins there). You could go WR-WR if that's BPA, but then what if all the good rbs are taken? Do you continue going bpa and take someone like gronk or Rodgers? It gets to a point where you have to worry about getting the best starters possible instead of having 7 great WRs- not that anyone said to do that

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16 hours ago, ponchsox said:

My draft is tomorrow. I'm just going to have fun, draft the guys I want, and stop worrying about ADP.

This was my friends strategy going into the draft and he killed it haha. Meanwhile I'm over here stressing and over analyzing everything. 

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Its hard to tell until you are in the draft to see how things go.  One thing I have learned, you need a RB within your first 3 picks.  I waited in my 12 man and got ingram as my RB1...yeah not good.  Likes of Cook and Mixon and rising steadily, so by the turn of the 4th/5th...slim pickings.

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13 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

I am very afraid to invest in Allen Robinson even though he is an elite receiver. I have him 30th overall but the more I see of Bortles the more I want to move him down. The targets will be there but his efficiency is going to be awful. Is he really a top 40 pick?

 

 

Is this post from 2016?

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5 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

 It gets to a point where you have to worry about getting the best starters possible instead of having 7 great WRs- not that anyone said to do that

I've ran into this doing mocks. I'd finish my draft and think "this is the most talent I've ever had". 

 

Problem is that I'm 7 deep at WR with a guy like Martavius Bryant sitting 3 rows deep on my bench. But I'm rolling out Paul Perkins and Fat rob as my rbs. 

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14 hours ago, burninglegs said:

Round 4 of this year is just a complete cluster f---. Just no real good options per ADP. I'm usually one to wait on QB, but Brady if he falls to the 4th or even Brees at the end of the 4th are looking like good options. Otherwise, it is just one huge mine field to try and navigate. Might even be better to just jump ahead and pick one of my ADP round 5 guys that I really like. 

 

Exactly what happened to me. It was the 4th round and there was no one I was crazy about. Alshon, Landry, Montgomery, Tyreek, Reed, Edelman, Olsen, no thanks.

 

Decided to snag Brees. Nice, safe set it and forget it option at QB all year.

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10 hours ago, Random Dude said:

#1 pick in my 12 team PPR league. We play 2rb/3wr/TE/Flex. 

 

Wanted to see what you guys thought of my strategy... 

 

#1 - DJ - Easy pick for me

 

2/3 turn (Picks 24,25) - Looking WR/WR as I think there's some good options at RB at 4/5

 

4/5 turn (48,49) - if successful going WR/WR, I might go RB/RB. 

 

6/7 (72,73) - If I don't take a RB, I am hoping I can fill out my wideouts 

 

I picked from this spot with the same league and roster configuration just recently, and I had a similar plan/hope going in.  Some of the issues I ran into along the way:

 

- In my mind there is a distinct tier drop at WR between the Cooper/Bryant/Baldwin/Cooks and DT/Hopkins/Pryor groups, and picks 24 and 25 fell right in between those tiers in my draft.  I was left choosing between WRs I didn't really like that much, reaching for someone like Allen, or just going with BPA.  When doing mocks it seemed like I could always take a pair like Baldwin and Cooks at the 2/3 turn, but in reality you're not getting them unless a couple teams before you reach for one of the rookie RBs, or QBs get drafted early.

 

- At 48/49 I found a lot more WR depth left over than RB, but I guess that depends how you feel about certain guys.  Basically any of the RBs left has some major question marks surrounding them, like "can his team score?" (Hyde) or "how many snaps will he get in this crowded backfield?" (Ingram).  On the flip side there were a bevy of WRs left, anywhere from safe/high floor picks like Edelman to higher ceiling picks like Watkins or Parker.  To me, they seemed like the better bargain here, but again that's all preference.  However this is "last call" for starting-caliber RBs - once you get to 72/73 you're picking through the scrap heap, so you better hope to have your RB2 by now.

 

- 72/73 seemed like a decent spot for value.  Each position seemed to have some value left, and it's more of a "wait and see who has fallen" scenario.  Also this was last chance to get a decent TE - if you care about that.  After this the top 8 or so TEs were all off the board.

 

 This is just based on one draft I did, so take it for what it's worth, but I think you just have to take what's there and not try too hard to get specific positions.  Obviously I would say draft your RB2 at least by picks 48/49, but just take the best players available at each slot and let the chips fall how they will.  The only other advice I can give is, if you have a guy that you really want to get, you have to reach pretty hard sometimes.  Since you only pick every 23 selections, if there's a guy with an ADP in the mid-4th round, you'll have to take him at the 2/3 turn if you really want to make sure you get him.  That may be an obvious thing to say, but I didn't feel bad about reaching a couple times on guys I wanted badly.  You can't look at it like "this guy's ADP is 20 picks from now", you have to say to yourself "will he likely be on the board still next time I pick?"

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"There is no such thing as a ‘value QB’ in the first round"

 

There is a common misconception about the NFL Draft that pops up around this time every year and it's absolutely asinine. The phrase, which I'm sure you've heard, goes like this, "Quarterback X would be a reach in the Top 5, but if you can get him in the 15-20 range, he's a great pick."

...

Let me be very clear: There is no such thing as a quarterback that would be a good pick at 15 or 25 that would be a bad pick at 5. And, conversely, there is no quarterback that is a bad pick at 5 that would be a good pick at 15 or 25.

If there is a quarterback that years after the draft is considered a good 1st round pick, he is more valuable than every single player in the draft except for other quality quarterbacks.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nick-wright-nfl-draft-first-round-qbs-042717

 

2007:

 

JaMarcus Russell is the famous bust of all busts, but he's not the pick that should bother you the most. That pick is Brady Quinn. The Cleveland Browns knew Brady Quinn wasn't that good, that's why they didn't take him 3rd overall. But with him sitting there at 22, and the Browns foolishly believing that there's such a thing as a quarterback who is a good pick at 22 that wouldn't have been a good pick at 3, they took him. 6 of the next 7 picks were Pro Bowlers.

 

2011:


This might be the greatest draft ever. JJ Watt, Von Miller, Julio Jones, Tyron Smith, A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson all went in the top 11. But who went number 1? And who would go number 1 if we did it again? Cam Newton. Conversely, the 3 other 1st round picks: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder wouldn't go in the top 200 if we drafted again. The Titans, Jags and Vikings would never have taken any of those players over Julio or Von Miller, but they thought they were good "value" in the 8-12 range, and they passed on JJ Watt, Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn.

 

--------

 

It's an interesting drafting theory.  Wonder how / if it could be applied to thinking in fantasy drafts (not just in terms of the QB position, but across all positions).  Discussion?

Edited by Robrain
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sometimes throwing that adp crap out the window is your best bet. Most of the time players don't live up to adp or players you reach for actually outproduce their adp. If you really like a player and want him on your team go grab him... instead of watching him blow up on somebody else's team 

Edited by ShowStopper
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You should be using ADP to make educated guesses as to whether the guy atop your draft board will come back to you.  If you can live with the risk of not getting the guy and it looks possible, you let the guy go and hope you get him in the next round.  If you can't live with it, you just take him.  

 

ADP should not be dictating your draft board.  It should be informing your draft strategy.

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12 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

You should be using ADP to make educated guesses as to whether the guy atop your draft board will come back to you.  If you can live with the risk of not getting the guy and it looks possible, you let the guy go and hope you get him in the next round.  If you can't live with it, you just take him.  

 

ADP should not be dictating your draft board.  It should be informing your draft strategy.

 

Spot on. If there is no one you like in a certain round but you like multiple players in the following round, don't just draft a player in a round because you feel you have to. Just draft a player from the following round ADP. I'd rather be happy with my players than to regret drafting a player I don't really want. 

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2 hours ago, Robrain said:

"There is no such thing as a ‘value QB’ in the first round"

 

There is a common misconception about the NFL Draft that pops up around this time every year and it's absolutely asinine. The phrase, which I'm sure you've heard, goes like this, "Quarterback X would be a reach in the Top 5, but if you can get him in the 15-20 range, he's a great pick."

...

Let me be very clear: There is no such thing as a quarterback that would be a good pick at 15 or 25 that would be a bad pick at 5. And, conversely, there is no quarterback that is a bad pick at 5 that would be a good pick at 15 or 25.

If there is a quarterback that years after the draft is considered a good 1st round pick, he is more valuable than every single player in the draft except for other quality quarterbacks.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nick-wright-nfl-draft-first-round-qbs-042717

 

2007:

 

JaMarcus Russell is the famous bust of all busts, but he's not the pick that should bother you the most. That pick is Brady Quinn. The Cleveland Browns knew Brady Quinn wasn't that good, that's why they didn't take him 3rd overall. But with him sitting there at 22, and the Browns foolishly believing that there's such a thing as a quarterback who is a good pick at 22 that wouldn't have been a good pick at 3, they took him. 6 of the next 7 picks were Pro Bowlers.

 

2011:


This might be the greatest draft ever. JJ Watt, Von Miller, Julio Jones, Tyron Smith, A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson all went in the top 11. But who went number 1? And who would go number 1 if we did it again? Cam Newton. Conversely, the 3 other 1st round picks: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder wouldn't go in the top 200 if we drafted again. The Titans, Jags and Vikings would never have taken any of those players over Julio or Von Miller, but they thought they were good "value" in the 8-12 range, and they passed on JJ Watt, Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn.

 

--------

 

It's an interesting drafting theory.  Wonder how / if it could be applied to thinking in fantasy drafts (not just in terms of the QB position, but across all positions).  Discussion?

 

Not sure what kind of relevance this could have to fantasy.  The argument seems to be that QB is the most important position in football, and hardest to fill, so any QB that is starter-quality is the most valuable player in a draft, and anyone that busts isn't worth anything.  QB isn't the most important position in most fantasy leagues because there are many more starting QBs than fantasy QB starting slots to fill, and the drop off from QB1 to QB12 isn't as steep in fantasy scoring as in real life.  

 

If anything it might loosely apply to RBs in fantasy - but even then this argument is little more than "hindsight is 20/20".  Sure if a player isn't good then it was a bad pick, and if they were good it was a good pick.  But the point is nobody knows if they're going to be stars or not.  The Raiders sure thought JaMarcus was going to be great, but did they have any different feelings on him pre-draft than the Panthers had on Newton, or the Colts did on Manning?  And it's not like there was never a mid-late 1st round QB that wasn't a success.  Aaron Rodgers went 24th overall, but I bet if the Packers had a top 5 pick they wouldn't have taken Rodgers.  So by the article's logic that "Rodgers wasn't seen as a good pick at #5 overall" he must have been a bad pick at 24th overall and the Packers just got lucky?  

 

This is all just saying that in hindsight, the bad picks are bad and the good picks are good.  But in the end, you're likely not getting a top QB unless you use a top pick and take your chances, because someone else will.  

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