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People with picks 5 through 7 please chime in. 

 

What is your plan to get a RB1 within the first 3 rounds? Are you guys hoping one slips to 18-20 in the 2nd round? I just don't see many options. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, burninglegs said:

 

Spot on. If there is no one you like in a certain round but you like multiple players in the following round, don't just draft a player in a round because you feel you have to. Just draft a player from the following round ADP. I'd rather be happy with my players than to regret drafting a player I don't really want. 

 

Well said.  I walk into a draft (and in an auction this is even more profound) with my draft board for each position with all sorts of data, notes, etc., and another sheet with all sorts of strategy notes to myself.  But at the top of each sheet I always write (or type) in big red letters the following message:

 

"GET YOUR GUYS."

 

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7 minutes ago, Tenner said:

People with picks 5 through 7 please chime in. 

 

What is your plan to get a RB1 within the first 3 rounds? Are you guys hoping one slips to 18-20 in the 2nd round? I just don't see many options. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like taking 2 rb's with those first two picks--

 

So Lesean, Melvin, Jay and complimented it with a gurley crowell fournette 

 

Then Take high ceiling wr's the next few rounds .... k allen, m bryant, S Diggs, M Crabtree  - 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, dnorma2 said:

 

 

I like taking 2 rb's with those first two picks--

 

So Lesean, Melvin, Jay and complimented it with a gurley crowell fournette 

 

Then Take high ceiling wr's the next few rounds .... k allen, m bryant, S Diggs, M Crabtree  - 

 

 

 

Same here.  Probably grabbing Freeman in 1st at 5th pick, then either Murray or Ajayi in 2nd round (2 QB league).  Feel like there are more WR options later in draft.

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1 hour ago, Tenner said:

People with picks 5 through 7 please chime in. 

 

What is your plan to get a RB1 within the first 3 rounds? Are you guys hoping one slips to 18-20 in the 2nd round? I just don't see many options. 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm going wr in the 1st, rb in the 2nd, another rb in the 3rd or 4th, then at least one in 6/7. While you're likely stuck with Gurley as your rb1, there's a lot of solid upside guys (Cook, Ware, the other rookies, some ppr backs) in the 3/4 range and if you can snag Doug Martin (or as a back-up Abdullah) in round 6, you'll have a 3rd solid rb. Then, I'm looking at McFadden round 7 as well, to give me another solid rb for half the year.

 

So then you're maybe looking at Gurley, Cook, Martin, McFadden as your guys. I guess everyone has their own thoughts, but something like that is more than good enough for me. Potentially 3 top 15 rb's there, plus half a season of maybe a 4th. 

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1 hour ago, soccerphysio said:

Same here.  Probably grabbing Freeman in 1st at 5th pick, then either Murray or Ajayi in 2nd round (2 QB league).  Feel like there are more WR options later in draft.

Definitely this. 

Wr depth goes on for days and the dropoff down the tiers is much less than rbs.   

1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Well said.  I walk into a draft (and in an auction this is even more profound) with my draft board for each position with all sorts of data, notes, etc., and another sheet with all sorts of strategy notes to myself.  But at the top of each sheet I always write (or type) in big red letters the following message:

 

"GET YOUR GUYS."

 

 

Very true-  however...be humble enough to realize your guys are going to hit and miss just like those who aren't your guys. Don't reach all over the place just to get similar players in multiple drafts.  That's the lesson all of us should have learned from Axe Elf.   Nobody has a crystal ball so switch it up sometimes when the value is right. 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

Definitely this. 

Wr depth goes on for days and the dropoff down the tiers is much less than rbs.   

 

Agree with this. I would HAPPILY start the Crabtree, ARob, And Diggses of the league over that middle tier of RB garbage

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with all of the uncertainty at rb, i dont get the "snag as many rbs early as possible and grab wrs later" approach.  doesnt this just mean you have a greater chance of drafting a bust?  would anyone be shocked if none of murray, gurley, cook, mccaffery, fournette, etc were top 10 next year?  with early picks (first three rounds) im looking for consistency and will gamble later on upside with hoping of finding next years ajayi or howard, 

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

with all of the uncertainty at rb, i dont get the "snag as many rbs early as possible and grab wrs later" approach.  doesnt this just mean you have a greater chance of drafting a bust?  would anyone be shocked if none of murray, gurley, cook, mccaffery, fournette, etc were top 10 next year?  with early picks (first three rounds) im looking for consistency and will gamble later on upside with hoping of finding next years ajayi or howard, 

 

RBs inherently have a high bust rate so that argument goes both ways.  I think the reason to load up on them early is because the opportunity cost (i.e. WR depth) appears lower.  Normally to chase buzzy RB it will cost you big.  This year I don't think it does as much. REACH baby, REACH.

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2 hours ago, Tenner said:

People with picks 5 through 7 please chime in. 

 

What is your plan to get a RB1 within the first 3 rounds? Are you guys hoping one slips to 18-20 in the 2nd round? I just don't see many options. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miller

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13 minutes ago, Magoo said:

 

RBs inherently have a high bust rate so that argument goes both ways.  I think the reason to load up on them early is because the opportunity cost (i.e. WR depth) appears lower.  Normally to chase buzzy RB it will cost you big.  This year I don't think it does as much. REACH baby, REACH.

if a top 3 round pick busts, i wouldnt consider that a low risk, even if you can make up the value later with a wr, but that might just be my personal level of risk aversion.

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19 minutes ago, herschel said:

if a top 3 round pick busts, i wouldnt consider that a low risk, even if you can make up the value later with a wr, but that might just be my personal level of risk aversion.

 

Fair enough.  I just think after the first 15 picks (or where Gronk goes) everything seems to be wide open.  Just my opinion.

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4 hours ago, Magoo said:

 

RBs inherently have a high bust rate so that argument goes both ways.  I think the reason to load up on them early is because the opportunity cost (i.e. WR depth) appears lower.  Normally to chase buzzy RB it will cost you big.  This year I don't think it does as much. REACH baby, REACH.

 

I have always finished 1st or 2nd in the regular season when taking 4 RBS in the first 6 rounds.

One RB is a bust, one gets injured, leaving 2 solid backs on your roster.  

I typically end up with 6-8 RBs because......

Every team starts 1 QB, 1 RB, and 3 WRS.  If I end up having 6 starting RBs on my roster, that's 1/5th of the league in a 12 man league!  When you're desperate for waiver RBs, you hate me.

 

QBs? Don't draft one.  While everyone else is GUESSING who they WANT to be good this year, wait!  I never take one until the top 12 are off the board, and almost always end up with a top 5 QB at some point in the season.  After the top 4 QBs (when Luck is healthy), put QBs 5-19 in a bag and shake.  Pick 2. 

 

WR?  Take a look at ADPs.  Who do you like?  4 of my top 6 are RBs.  I'll take a WR and MAYBE a TE.  This year, I'm thinking Watkins/Martin in rounds 3 and 4.  If Hunter Henry is available in the 5th round, I'll jump all over him.  When people are haters, you get great bargains.  Watkins is playing for a big contract, and Martin is playing because he LOST his big contract.  Incentives make injured people produce like Megatron (who was ALWAYS injured)!

 

6 rounds with 4 RBs, 1 WR, and 1 TE.  Worried about WRs?  No. Remember, WRs are ALWAYS available on waivers.  Everyone else puts in for the RB.

7th round: if Parker is gone, take Decker.  If I went 4 RB and 2 WR, I'm looking at TE.

4 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE

8th round: Decker or Cobb.  Remember Cobb was hurt last year.  If you think he's old: Donald Driver and James Jones.  Jonathan Stewart is also 2 down and goal line back.  I'm going Stewart.  If he's gone, Jamaal Williams.  This is where you early WR guys really start hating me.

9th round: This is usually when QB 12 is off the board, so I'm grabbing Rivers or Manning.  I'm sure ODB has an upper ankle sprain and just plays decoy for Sterling Shephard until week 4.

10th round: Screw QB in round 9: Corey Coleman.  Corey Coleman is ODB's clone.  If Kiser is throwing him the ball, you'll be pissed you didn't grab him.  Coleman in 9 and QB in 10. 

5 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1QB - I'm happy.  Time for some darts.

 

11th - 14th round: You can ALWAYS stream a waiver QB.  Skip.  TE?  Max Williams and Eric Swoop will be free agents.  Not worried about them.  Room for 4 sleepers.

Joe Williams - Best one cut runner in Shanhan's outside zone blocking scheme.  If Shanahan does what he wants, Williams is Freeman and the undrafted rookie is Coleman. 

Jonathan Williams - No way Shady holds up all season.  Impossible.  Best case, he doesn't go down with a torn ACL.  Williams spells Gillislee in BUF this year.

Doctson - "NFL drafted" to play "starting X".  Good chance he lives up to all the Pryor hype if healthy.

Sterling Shepard - He's the slot, really tall, and jumps super high.  Slot gets lots of targets, Eli loves him in the red zone, and if ODB has a high ankle sprain, or Brandon Marshall ends up being old, you made a good choice.

Kamara - Brees' passing back.  Yes!

Smallwood - Best RB on PHI

Fleener? - Maybe he learned the offense?  Potential Brees stud TE costs you a 13th round pick when someone else is grabbing a DEF or backup QB.  Why not?  Right?  Worst case, you dump him for the waiver WR nobody else has room for, because they already have too many WRs.  Every team starts 3, remember?

 

Wade Philips is DC for the Rams this year.  They were #9 defense last year.  Wade Philips is always top 3.  15th round.

16th round: any kicker on a competent defense will do.  You can also stream kickers against really bad defenses.

 

People worry too much about their 1st round pick.  I prefer the 10-12 spot, because lots of busts are taken ahead of me, and I get first crack at the underrated players.

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11 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

You should be using ADP to make educated guesses as to whether the guy atop your draft board will come back to you.  If you can live with the risk of not getting the guy and it looks possible, you let the guy go and hope you get him in the next round.  If you can't live with it, you just take him.  

 

ADP should not be dictating your draft board.  It should be informing your draft strategy.

 

 

Great post. Wish i had read this sooner, as i said i always get caught up with adp

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2 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

I have always finished 1st or 2nd in the regular season when taking 4 RBS in the first 6 rounds.

One RB is a bust, one gets injured, leaving 2 solid backs on your roster.  

I typically end up with 6-8 RBs because......

Every team starts 1 QB, 1 RB, and 3 WRS.  If I end up having 6 starting RBs on my roster, that's 1/5th of the league in a 12 man league!  When you're desperate for waiver RBs, you hate me.

 

QBs? Don't draft one.  While everyone else is GUESSING who they WANT to be good this year, wait!  I never take one until the top 12 are off the board, and almost always end up with a top 5 QB at some point in the season.  After the top 4 QBs (when Luck is healthy), put QBs 5-19 in a bag and shake.  Pick 2. 

 

WR?  Take a look at ADPs.  Who do you like?  4 of my top 6 are RBs.  I'll take a WR and MAYBE a TE.  This year, I'm thinking Watkins/Martin in rounds 3 and 4.  If Hunter Henry is available in the 5th round, I'll jump all over him.  When people are haters, you get great bargains.  Watkins is playing for a big contract, and Martin is playing because he LOST his big contract.  Incentives make injured people produce like Megatron (who was ALWAYS injured)!

 

6 rounds with 4 RBs, 1 WR, and 1 TE.  Worried about WRs?  No. Remember, WRs are ALWAYS available on waivers.  Everyone else puts in for the RB.

7th round: if Parker is gone, take Decker.  If I went 4 RB and 2 WR, I'm looking at TE.

4 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE

8th round: Decker or Cobb.  Remember Cobb was hurt last year.  If you think he's old: Donald Driver and James Jones.  Jonathan Stewart is also 2 down and goal line back.  I'm going Stewart.  If he's gone, Jamaal Williams.  This is where you early WR guys really start hating me.

9th round: This is usually when QB 12 is off the board, so I'm grabbing Rivers or Manning.  I'm sure ODB has an upper ankle sprain and just plays decoy for Sterling Shephard until week 4.

10th round: Screw QB in round 9: Corey Coleman.  Corey Coleman is ODB's clone.  If Kiser is throwing him the ball, you'll be pissed you didn't grab him.  Coleman in 9 and QB in 10. 

5 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1QB - I'm happy.  Time for some darts.

 

11th - 14th round: You can ALWAYS stream a waiver QB.  Skip.  TE?  Max Williams and Eric Swoop will be free agents.  Not worried about them.  Room for 4 sleepers.

Joe Williams - Best one cut runner in Shanhan's outside zone blocking scheme.  If Shanahan does what he wants, Williams is Freeman and the undrafted rookie is Coleman. 

Jonathan Williams - No way Shady holds up all season.  Impossible.  Best case, he doesn't go down with a torn ACL.  Williams spells Gillislee in BUF this year.

Doctson - "NFL drafted" to play "starting X".  Good chance he lives up to all the Pryor hype if healthy.

Sterling Shepard - He's the slot, really tall, and jumps super high.  Slot gets lots of targets, Eli loves him in the red zone, and if ODB has a high ankle sprain, or Brandon Marshall ends up being old, you made a good choice.

Kamara - Brees' passing back.  Yes!

Smallwood - Best RB on PHI

Fleener? - Maybe he learned the offense?  Potential Brees stud TE costs you a 13th round pick when someone else is grabbing a DEF or backup QB.  Why not?  Right?  Worst case, you dump him for the waiver WR nobody else has room for, because they already have too many WRs.  Every team starts 3, remember?

 

Wade Philips is DC for the Rams this year.  They were #9 defense last year.  Wade Philips is always top 3.  15th round.

16th round: any kicker on a competent defense will do.  You can also stream kickers against really bad defenses.

 

People worry too much about their 1st round pick.  I prefer the 10-12 spot, because lots of busts are taken ahead of me, and I get first crack at the underrated players.

another great post on draft strategy. 

 

People may disagree with this, but even if you do it'll give you insight on how other people think

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23 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

another great post on draft strategy. 

 

People may disagree with this, but even if you do it'll give you insight on how other people think

 

If you have 1/5th of all the starting running backs in a 12 team league, you are better than 7 other teams and will make the playoffs.

Just saying.  And Jets RBs don't count this year.

 

Starting 3 WRs is a different strategy.

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On 8/25/2017 at 11:48 AM, Tenner said:

People with picks 5 through 7 please chime in. 

 

What is your plan to get a RB1 within the first 3 rounds? Are you guys hoping one slips to 18-20 in the 2nd round? I just don't see many options. 

 

 

 

 

 

I like taking Gurley then hyde 2/3rd and best wr in the 1st in that position

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1 minute ago, vthokie3 said:

a guy in my draft just did that. went OBJ  at 7 then took Gurley 2nd, Hyde 3rd

 

Bad teams, but both of thise backs are 3 down bell cows. I think gurkey is gonna be a stud this year and catch more balls. I think the rams will be bad, but farrrr improved with a new coach. 

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