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2017 General Draft Strategies


Lord_Varys
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35 minutes ago, Woonga24 said:

Anybody got stats on if you go WR/WR vs RB/RB  in the first two rounds and both picks end up busting? And you have to end up picking  g up average joes? Lol which side would win in a PPR league? Lol

If you draft RB's that are pass catchers either way can win.  I have won leagues doing either way.  Just have to draft the right players and hope for health and luck. 

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46 minutes ago, Woonga24 said:

Anybody got stats on if you go WR/WR vs RB/RB  in the first two rounds and both picks end up busting? And you have to end up picking  g up average joes? Lol which side would win in a PPR league? Lol

If your RB's bust, I think your chances are much better.

 

Going WR-WR early and they both bust. You ain't recovering with the horse s--- on the waiver. Always some RB's you can gamble with.

Edited by Fearfulways
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54 minutes ago, Woonga24 said:

Anybody got stats on if you go WR/WR vs RB/RB  in the first two rounds and both picks end up busting? And you have to end up picking  g up average joes? Lol which side would win in a PPR league? Lol

 

This is a great year to make sure you grab rb's early. I got backed into starting wr-wr (picked 6th, Julio dropped to me, and by my round 2 pick the top 9 rb's were already off the board). As a result, I've got a lot of upside but no stability at rb. Meanwhile, you can start rb-wr or rb-rb and still have a darn good receiving core. If put in the position, grab a rb in the top 2 rounds. 

 

Anyone and everyone can bust though, so go by preference. 

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14 minutes ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

Is anyone else that can play a TE in the flex position drafting Olsen Graham, Kelce, this year to play the flex instead of a thirs RB or WR ?

This only seems feasible if you take a late round flier TE like a Julius Thomas or something and they hit along with your earlier guy. I cannot in good conscience draft two TEs in my first 10 picks even if I can flex them. Missing out on too many quality RB/WR spots that early. IMO

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1 minute ago, lolcopter said:

This only seems feasible if you take a late round flier TE like a Julius Thomas or something and they hit along with your earlier guy. I cannot in good conscience draft two TEs in my first 10 picks even if I can flex them. Missing out on too many quality RB/WR spots that early. IMO

 

I know it seems like a crazy idea, but looking at the numbers a top five TE usually scores as much or more than 3rd WR or RB, and they are more consistent year to year it appears.

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I have never seen a team do well that has drafted two top ranked TEs.  It makes the rest of the team extremely weak.  Usually when I see a team starting a TE in the flex position it's because their team is really bad or they have a lot of bye weeks.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I have never seen a team do well that has drafted two top ranked TEs.  It makes the rest of the team extremely weak.  Usually when I see a team starting a TE in the flex position it's because their team is really bad or they have a lot of bye weeks.

A few years ago when gronk was gronk and graham was graham I did it in a ppr. It worked out pretty well.

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3 hours ago, Woonga24 said:

Anybody got stats on if you go WR/WR vs RB/RB  in the first two rounds and both picks end up busting? And you have to end up picking  g up average joes? Lol which side would win in a PPR league? Lol

I don't draft players I expect to bust, so I don't even know why you're planning on that possibility. Pick the best team.

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2 hours ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

 

I know it seems like a crazy idea, but looking at the numbers a top five TE usually scores as much or more than 3rd WR or RB, and they are more consistent year to year it appears.

12-team league? WR30 > RB30. TE6 is Eifert, going 65. WR30, Marshall, 67. RB30, Perkins, 82. Points are comparable at WR and TE. RBs are lower but, again, RB is going later. You can take a TE because the points are similar. Just keep in mind that you have 2-3 spots you can fill with a RB/TE, and only 1 for TE, plus whatever flex spots you have. Take value. If a TE drops a round or 2 lower than they should, go ahead and consider taking them.

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3 hours ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

Is anyone else that can play a TE in the flex position drafting Olsen Graham, Kelce, this year to play the flex instead of a third RB or WR ?

 

I have once so far but I have both Gronk and Kelce both higher then most and I tried my hardest not to take Kelce in the 4th but the WR's after him were Hill, Fitz, Bryant, Adams, Benjamin while the RB's were Mixon, CJ Anderson, Graham, Olsen and Reed also went shortly after. When making the pick I thought I got a great flex who was 16th in receptions who went off for 45 catches and 682 yards in 7 games after Maclin got hurt and Reid decided to feature him more. If I do trade one TE it'll be for a need during the season or for something better then I could have drafted if I do before the season if not I'm happy with Kelce at flex.

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7 hours ago, CooL said:

Thoughts on drafting Gronk and Rodgers in a 14 team PPR league if you have pick #14 and 15?  I always feel like when you are at the back of the draft, getting somebody like Jordan Howard and Amari Cooper isn't going to make up the disadvantage of playing against a guy with DJ and Dez Bryant.  If you lock down the #1 TE and QB, is it easier to find value in the middle rounds for RB and WR?

 

I've never started out a draft TE-QB before, but doing some mocks, the team is more competitive than I thought.

 

I guess another way to pose the question is, how closely do you follow VBD?  Because often times, (depending on keepers already gone), VBD would dictate that you draft a Gronk or Rodgers.

 

4 or 6 pt TD's? I like Gronk there and if 6 pt passing td's could get on board with Rodgers but if 4 it's too early, if you do this you have a little less room for error at RB but also a little more room for lotto tickets as you'll never have to worry about QB or TE outside of bye weeks. If you can draft or grab solid RB's you'd be laughing but easier said then done.

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3 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

4 or 6 pt TD's? I like Gronk there and if 6 pt passing td's could get on board with Rodgers but if 4 it's too early, if you do this you have a little less room for error at RB but also a little more room for lotto tickets as you'll never have to worry about QB or TE outside of bye weeks. If you can draft or grab solid RB's you'd be laughing but easier said then done.

6 pts for all TDs.  Yeah, I was thinking this year I would go against the traditional "wait on QB and TE" mantra, seeing as how the RBs and WRs at the end of round 1 are not Tier 1 players. 

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2 minutes ago, CooL said:

6 pts for all TDs.  Yeah, I was thinking this year I would go against the traditional "wait on QB and TE" mantra, seeing as how the RBs and WRs at the end of round 1 are not Tier 1 players. 

 

I like it and they both will have huge weeks and if they line up together you'll need next to nothing from the rest of your team.

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Anyone tempted at the Cardinal Trifecta this year? Carson Palmer, David Johnson, and Larry Fitz? I'm strongly considering it myself this year because Palmer is basically a dollar in auctions or close to bottom round draft status in snakes. Then you have DJ who you know what you are getting from, and a cheap Larry Fitz as well. Palmer as the QB2, DJ as the RB1, and Fitz as the WR2 is my ideal placement really. 

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On these forums, I've noticed the occasional battle regarding player talent and it's importance.

 

In general, it goes like this:

 

A: "I think this guy is really good at football"

B: "You don't get fantasy points for being good at football".

 

I wanted to make a quick defense of factoring talent into fantasy football strategy.

 

Some on these boards may be familiar with a notion called the "Efficient Market Hypothesis". It's a notion regarding securities markets that suggests that information about securities is so efficiently processed that knowledge about the security has no value in forming investment strategy. It suggests that everything about those securities is well enough known and processed that you gain no advantage from reading financial reports or sector analyses or anything of that sort. The information you are processing has already been incorporated into price. Essentially, your analysis is just wasted effort to arrive at conclusions that are already priced into the asset.

 

It's a hypothesis, and certainly it isn't perfectly true. However, barring inside, proprietary information, the markets more or less make it true. The other actors in the market are also informed, also make suggestions, and also arrive at reasonable conclusions. Research, analysis, and consideration do not provide an advantage, because they are universal characteristics of all the competing actors.

 

The reason I mention this is because fantasy leagues are not all the same. In a league where you compete against low quality players, or players of low attentiveness, or players with low familiarity of fantasy strategy, you can win by knowing more. More about opportunity, more about scheme, more about opponent quality, or just more about fantasy football. You can take advantage of inefficiencies, as you must to be successful.

 

A simple example: You draft a player at or after ADP who gains you an advantage because other players don't understand the player's value.

A more complex example: You use zero-RB to gain efficiency against opponents who overvalue certain positions or have slavish adherence to a particular model for team construction.

 

The importance of talent evaluation is as follows: In a fantasy league against very good opponents, without extreme luck in terms of injuries or waiver position, you cannot gain an advantage based upon scheme, volume, opponent quality, or past production.

 

Consider that. If your opponents know absolutely everything that you know (objective facts, like usage rates, historical efficiency, etc) you cannot gain an advantage on account of those things. To extend that notion (bearing in mind injury luck and other things make this statement not absolute): You cannot win at fantasy football by drafting players at or after their ADP. If doing so is your strategy, you will inevitably lose to someone who knows all the same information you know, but is able to modify it accurately by way of SUBJECTIVE judgments. If you're competing against people that you cannot gain an advantage against by knowing objective facts about the past or present, you must win by making subjective, uncertain judgments about the future. Volume doesn't help you unless you can predict how it will change beyond changes in scheme or personnel. Efficiency doesn't help you unless you can predict the way it will trend in the future. Understanding risk doesn't help you unless you can better assess how to compensate that risk. Knowing the depth chart doesn't help you unless you can predict how it will change. Draft strategy doesn't help you, unless you can form predictive rankings that diverge from ADP, because the other players behave efficiently.

 

When we talk about the importance of talent in fantasy football, there is an implicit question. Who cares?

 

If you play against low quality opponents, you really shouldn't. Even against experienced fantasy players, you can beat them on draft day by being flexible and not falling into the trap of choosing players who are dramatically overvalued or unnecessarily risky. But, if you play against high quality players, you cannot win without reaching, because those players will make assessments. Not all will be superior to consensus, but in a league of good players, some will. That means that you only win if your value assessment is superior to consensus. And good players know every fact you know, so you only arrive at superior valuation by subjective, arguable, interpretive assessment.


The importance of talent evaluation is that, in its best, most competitive, and purest form, it is actually the realm in which fantasy football is decided.

 

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13 hours ago, CooL said:

Thoughts on drafting Gronk and Rodgers in a 14 team PPR league if you have pick #14 and 15?  I always feel like when you are at the back of the draft, getting somebody like Jordan Howard and Amari Cooper isn't going to make up the disadvantage of playing against a guy with DJ and Dez Bryant.  If you lock down the #1 TE and QB, is it easier to find value in the middle rounds for RB and WR?

 

I've never started out a draft TE-QB before, but doing some mocks, the team is more competitive than I thought.

 

I guess another way to pose the question is, how closely do you follow VBD?  Because often times, (depending on keepers already gone), VBD would dictate that you draft a Gronk or Rodgers.

Cool...I am not sure why my response disappeared, but it is dangerous to go 2 non rb/wr picks to start your draft, unless you are extremely confident that you have singled out the rbs & wrs that will outproduce there adp in later rds. If you have that confidence, go for it,

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6 hours ago, Corey In Da House said:

Anyone tempted at the Cardinal Trifecta this year? Carson Palmer, David Johnson, and Larry Fitz? I'm strongly considering it myself this year because Palmer is basically a dollar in auctions or close to bottom round draft status in snakes. Then you have DJ who you know what you are getting from, and a cheap Larry Fitz as well. Palmer as the QB2, DJ as the RB1, and Fitz as the WR2 is my ideal placement really. 

 

I'd prefer the Steelers trifecta personally. Ben, Bell, and Martavis has so much TD upside IMO.

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7 hours ago, Saltyseabass said:

Just found out if you roster Big Ben and Palmer you can work it to face these defenses

1- lions

2-colts

3-bears

4-49ers

5-jags

6-Tampa 

7-bengals

8-lions

9-49ers

10-colts

11-titans

12-packets/jags

13-bengals

14-titans

15-redskins

16-Giants 

 

 

Also, check out Big Ben's home/away splits 3 years running.  At home, his PPG matches or exceeds ARod's and Brady's weekly PPG.  If you pair Big Ben with a QB that you're comfortable starting during some or all of the weeks that Big Ben is on the road, then you have an excellent chance of reducing the weekly PPG delta between your late round QB tandem and an early round QB draftee like ARod, Brady and Brees.

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4 hours ago, psygolf said:

Cool...I am not sure why my response disappeared, but it is dangerous to go 2 non rb/wr picks to start your draft, unless you are extremely confident that you have singled out the rbs & wrs that will outproduce there adp in later rds. If you have that confidence, go for it,

 

Pits pretty close to suicide unless you get very lucky.

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Also, check out Big Ben's home/away splits 3 years running.  At home, his PPG matches or exceeds ARod's and Brady's weekly PPG.  If you pair Big Ben with a QB that you're comfortable starting during some or all of the weeks that Big Ben is on the road, then you have an excellent chance of reducing the weekly PPG delta between your late round QB tandem and an early round QB draftee like ARod, Brady and Brees.

I like Ben...but from outside of Pittsburgh, the news is selling him as a guy who's lost the fire. The ashes are smoldering but the warmth's soon gone, with Pitt fans ending up cold and lonely on their own.

 

"...Silver Bullet!"

Edited by psygolf
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