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Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


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Now that the season is officially over, lets start a list of sleepers that I think will exceed their draft position given what I think the stock will be vs end of season value.

 

Richaun Holmes - He's a great handcuff to Joel and is a big that can shoot freethrows, expect him to go late in the draft because of the crowded philis front court despite averaging 3rd round value for the last 2 months of the season.

 

Seth Curry - I was wrong about him, he's a great shooter with great efficiency, that alone is enough to put him in 40th value over the last 2 months. He could easily keep those stats up for a whole season, either playing off of point for the mavs.

 

Josh Richardson - Super inconsistent this season but turned it on last few weeks could be a 3-d guy for the heat

 

Larry Nance- He's better than randle fantasywise, not sure about real life given I haven't watched many lakers games, but he's 3rd round value given 29+minutes. A nice punt points play

 

Tyler Johnson- 8th round value for the season and fell off a cliff for the last 3 months, I'm targetting him late rounds because he's a glue guy that doesn't do anything spectacular, but doesn't hurt you anywhere

 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson- I drank the coolaid this year, but if I can get him last 3 rounds next year I think there's a chance he'll be a real nba player, but no midround target for me.

 

Aaron Gordon-He was really good late in the year, I'm targeting him anywhere reasonable.

 

Cody Zeller- top 80 this season with good efficiency, for some reason ft% fell off a cliff, but I think that's a temporary thing

 

Malcolm Brogdon- My ROY, he's going to be a good late round flier next year given he put up 8th round value last 3 months.

 

Boban Marjanovic- his per36 is off the charts, if he gets 20+minutes a game he'll be worth 8th-9th round value

 

Jamal Murray- PG of the future for the nuggets, well that's Jokic.

 

 

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I would say the days of RoCo being a sleeper are over.  Nobody is sleeping on him anymore after the season he had.  He'll be gone by the mid rounds.

 

Rhythms put together a very nice list there.  My adds:

 

Taurean Prince - 1/1/1 guy who could/should get some more run next season.

 

Nikola Mirotic - Yeah, this guy.  He's been a complete tease and annoyance the last two years but there's no denying his ability to score.  He just needs a coach to believe in him and get consistent minutes.

 

Terrence Ross - gonna get a ton of minutes in Orlando (as we've already seen) and will be a nice pts/3's/stls guy next year.

 

Buddy Hield - we got a preview of him late this year.  Should be good in points and 3's while not killing fg%

 

Willie Cauley-Stein - He'll get all the minutes and should be a good rebounds/fg%/stl guy.  Yet to be seen whether he can rack up blocks though.

 

Guillermo Hernangomez - all depends on minutes and whether or not Noah is healthy, but if given 25 minutes a night he can be useful.

 

Tim Hardaway Jr. - useful pts/3's guy but doesn't do much else.

 

 

 

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I understand the season is over and you already miss nba fantasy and you are trying to find something to talk about, but these topics are really useless right now. Unless we see the teams new acquisitions and how the next season's mockdrafts look like we cannot name any of them as sleepers or players to avoid. If Jamal Murray or Hernangomez or Hield go 5th round for example average position they are no sleepers. 

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12 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

I understand the season is over and you already miss nba fantasy and you are trying to find something to talk about, but these topics are really useless right now. Unless we see the teams new acquisitions and how the next season's mockdrafts look like we cannot name any of them as sleepers or players to avoid. If Jamal Murray or Hernangomez or Hield go 5th round for example average position they are no sleepers. 

It's never too early to make a list of guys that you think will be underdrafted expecially when it's possible to predict around where adp is for most players.

 

I do agree it's better to have next seasons predraft rankings but it's not 100% necessary to make predictions.

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On 4/15/2017 at 4:49 AM, RipCity0 said:

I understand the season is over and you already miss nba fantasy and you are trying to find something to talk about, but these topics are really useless right now. Unless we see the teams new acquisitions and how the next season's mockdrafts look like we cannot name any of them as sleepers or players to avoid. If Jamal Murray or Hernangomez or Hield go 5th round for example average position they are no sleepers. 

 

Eh, it's never too early for some sleepers if you're a fantasy junkie.. which clearly you are if you're on this message board.

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Depending on what happens this summer, I wouldn't be too sold on Tyler Ulis yet. The Suns are probably moving Bledsoe but they may get a PG in return. They may also draft a PG. I think they are great on the bigman spots so I doubt they will make an add there. I would see what I can get in a Keeper's league for Ulis.

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6 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

What is Isaiah Thomas' draft position next year? Love this guy, from being the last pick on the real life NBA draft (same draft as Irving) to being a star of similar value.

I was thinking the same thing watching him against my Bulls.  Depending on your draft has to be the 5th to 7th guard off the board.  So, maybe 4th to 6th round?

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2 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

I was thinking the same thing watching him against my Bulls.  Depending on your draft has to be the 5th to 7th guard off the board.  So, maybe 4th to 6th round?

???? he shouldn't be there after the 3rd round at worst!

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4 minutes ago, BoogieNights said:

 

Agree... if you're in a 3 team league.  IT is an easy Top-20 pick heading into next season.

Yeah you are right.  After thinking about my league.  10 man.   I see him going late 2nd round early third depending on projections.  We are in a points league.  So the guys that don't follow hoops a lot will just see the numbers.

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Just to name a few that i dont think have been mentioned yet.

 

Frank the Tank is severely under drafted and he provided some decent value this season. I suspect he will continue to be under drafted. Late round will be good value.

Glenn Robinson III is someone that comes to mind. If Paul George opts out, i wouldn't be surprised if Indiana tries and develop this kid. Probably wont get drafted in fantasy so you can wait for the waiver wire to open for him.

Rodney Hood coming off a down year, lots of managers will overlook him. mid late rounds will prove to be great value for him IMO.

Jrue Holiday is always underrated and slept for at least 2 rounds after his true worth. But with so many great PGs, i'd say mid late round is good value.

Jusuf Nurkic im not sure he qualifies as a sleeper considering how much noise he made late last season post trade deadline. 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, larfboy said:

Just to name a few that i dont think have been mentioned yet.

 

Frank the Tank is severely under drafted and he provided some decent value this season. I suspect he will continue to be under drafted. Late round will be good value.

Glenn Robinson III is someone that comes to mind. If Paul George opts out, i wouldn't be surprised if Indiana tries and develop this kid. Probably wont get drafted in fantasy so you can wait for the waiver wire to open for him.

Rodney Hood coming off a down year, lots of managers will overlook him. mid late rounds will prove to be great value for him IMO.

Jrue Holiday is always underrated and slept for at least 2 rounds after his true worth. But with so many great PGs, i'd say mid late round is good value.

Jusuf Nurkic im not sure he qualifies as a sleeper considering how much noise he made late last season post trade deadline. 

 

3 minutes ago, larfboy said:

 

Good call on Holiday and Nurkic.  They probably will still slip later in drafts than they should.

 

 

 

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On ‎4‎/‎20‎/‎2017 at 0:19 AM, PuzzBeterson said:

rookies are, in general, overdrafted

sophs are almost always overdrafted

Of all of them last season, only one rookie and six sophomores beat their ADP: Embiid, KAT, Jokic, Myles Turner, Larry Nance, TJ McConnell and Josh Richardson.

 

Surprisingly, Larry Nance was the #88 player on the year (ADP was 142). 

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my list of players probably gonna be reached for too early/im avoiding drafting early:

Devin Booker is a great player..and amazing player in real life but when it comes to fantasy, i think his value suffers. I think he has a Kobe Bryant type of effect in value where he is much better in real life than in fantasy. Mid round is where i would draft him..rounds 4-6. I suspect he will go in the first 3.

Jamal Murray/Any sophomore besides Embiid i am avoiding him only because i haven't seen enough to draft him in a redraft league yet. He's too much of a risk to draft in a redraft league unless it's a late rounder in my opinion.

Dwight Howard/DeAndre Jordan/Andre Drummond avoiding any players of this build.

Julius Randle team focus seems to be around russell and ingram and surprisingly, Zubac.

Brandon Ingram this is fully dependent on what the lakers do during the offseason and how he develops but as next year is concerned I dont see him making a huge jump just yet. Rather than his KD comparisons, he seems to be more headed towards a more realistic comparison of Tayshaun Prince unless again, he makes a big jump in his sophomore season. 

Kris Dunn Rubio just ruined him and last time i checked, he's still in minnesota.

 

 

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1 hour ago, larfboy said:

my list of players probably gonna be reached for too early/im avoiding drafting early:

Devin Booker is a great player..and amazing player in real life but when it comes to fantasy, i think his value suffers. I think he has a Kobe Bryant type of effect in value where he is much better in real life than in fantasy. Mid round is where i would draft him..rounds 4-6. I suspect he will go in the first 3.

 

 

 

Kobe was the #13 player in fantasy (8- and 9-cat) in his age-20 season. Booker couldn't even crack the top 125. Not sure what the comparison is.

 

Kob_zpsg8lwfaco.jpg

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2 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Of all of them last season, only one rookie and six sophomores beat their ADP: Embiid, KAT, Jokic, Myles Turner, Larry Nance, TJ McConnell and Josh Richardson.

 

Surprisingly, Larry Nance was the #88 player on the year (ADP was 142). 

Brogdon?

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3 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Kobe was the #13 player in fantasy (8- and 9-cat) in his age-20 season. Booker couldn't even crack the top 125. Not sure what the comparison is.

 

Kob_zpsg8lwfaco.jpg

 

Wow. Was Kobe really ranked in the top 5 in fantasy that many times? if so, i stand corrected. i did not realize that. I always thought he ranked around the 15-20 range.

but to clarify what i meant in my post, i wasn't comparing booker and kobe statistically. i was comparing them more in terms of their actual talent vs their fantasy value. how kobe was arguably was best player in the nba for a good 5 years but in fantasy he would be perhaps the 15th or 20th best(again, i may stand corrected based on that chart) ..just saying booker would probably be similar to kobe in that sense. 

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