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Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


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6 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

Starting or bench really doesn't matter, it's the minutes.  If Noel plays 28 and Dirk plays 23, does it matter who's the starter and who isn't?

I'm saying it doesn't really matter.  Perhaps Curry has even more value in that 6th man, Jason Terry role.

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When looking at sleepers more or less these are guys stepping into bigger roles/minutes as a result of another player departing or being traded. Sleeper could also be guys who showed enough promise late last season or in the playoffs to be drafted. As far as Summer League performances go, mostly its means nothing as recent history has shown guys dominating (Jerryd Bayless for me always come to mind) but almost always doesn't translate to the regular season. 

 

Here is my attempt on identifying one sleeper per team. This could be guys you pick in the last rounds or guys who will be safe to pick early on because of increased opportunities from last year. My POV is always for 9-cat H2H, minimum 14 teams as I don't play in anything less. 

 

  • ATL - Taurean Prince. Easy. 1/1/1 potential plus THJ is gone and Baze sucks. John Collins later in the season. 
  • BOS - Jaylen Brown, like him more than Tatum. 
  • BKN - Allen Crabbe, could be a high volume 3pt shooter in that system. As always value will tie up if Atkinson sticks with his whacko 30 min limit again. Levert if he can push aside Carroll for good, which will most likely happen as the season progresses. 
  • CHA - Monk. This was tough but Monk shouldn't be nothing more than a 3 pt shooter with shaky %s at the most. 
  • CHI - Kris Dunn. He will have all the opportunity in front of him. Could be a nice steals specialist with a handful of dimes. 
  • CLE - Crowder. Another tough choice here, but I feel like Crowder will be on the floor a lot due to his intangibles and defense. Dependable 3 and STLs guy. 
  • DAL - DSJ. Might not crack top 100 but will give you some solid counting stats. 
  • DEN - Wilson Chandler. Gallo now gone and Chandler should soak a lot of minutes either at the 3 or 4 in small ball lineups. Underrated pickup for the last rounds. 
  • DET - Stanley Johnson, if only because this is his make or break year and Morris also now gone. Definitely worth a flyer within the last few rounds for upside potential. 
  • GSW - Nick Young - if you need a 3s boost in the last few rounds. 
  • IND - Turner. kind of cheating but I am a big fan of his game. If I have a late first round or early second round pick, I am nabbing Myles. Those delicious blocks and solid %s with improved counting stats will have a lot of value. He should outperform Kristaps this year and is a solid rock for punting assists. 
  • LAC - Lou Williams/Austin Rivers. Inevitably either Blake or Gallo will go down and these 2 guys figure to handle most of the load. 
  • LAL - KCP. Safe destination for him, another staple if you are 3s and stls hunting in the mid to late rounds. 
  • MEM - Jamychal Green, technically not signed yet but you get the picture. Z-Bo is gone. Mclemore also a nice injury stash. 
  • MIA - James Johnson, another 1/1/1 staple. 
  • MIL - Middleton, I feel you can get him at a discount this year. I am a bit worried how he will perform when Jabari's back up to speed but he's a good get in the 4th to 5th round and will be underdrafted. 
  • MIN - Dieng, I'm a big Dieng fan. Yes Taj is there to compete with his minutes but you know what you get with Dieng. Low counting stats, awesome %s with stocks to boot. 
  • NOP - Can't really recommend anyone here. I saw that Shabazz might be traded, and he will be a good get if that comes to fruition. Can be a scoring specialist. 
  • NYK - Hernangomez all the way. Hopefully he can shore up his block totals. 
  • OKC - no one really stands out aside from obviously PG13. Maybe Patterson but he's not consistent enough, hopefully he'll get more minutes. 
  • ORL - I haven't drafted Gordon before but this might be the year to expect the awaited uptick now that he's playing the 4 full time. 
  • PHI - Fultz and Simmons will get all the attention, but I have my eye on Richaun Holmes on the later rounds if I need a big. I don't trust Embiid will be healthy. 
  • PHO - Depending on need, its a tossup between Josh Jackson and TJ Warren. The former for stocks and the latter for scoring with solid FG%. 
  • POR - Cheating again but obviously Nurk will produce. He is the rare big who can provide elite bigman stats with ASSISTS and fixable FT% that doesn't force you to punt. If you draft a FT% anchor in the earlier rounds Nurk is a perfect complement. 
  • SAC - WCS. No brainer sleepr. 
  • SAS - Ehhh no standouts. Perhaps Murray?
  • TOR - Norman Powell, this guy produces Gary Harris-lite lines and hopefully he'll get more minutes. CJ Miles for 3 point hungry owners. 
  • UTA - Very tantalizing team for sleepers. Obviously Ingles and Hood will get upticks but I am curious with the Favors situation. Is he done? Will we see a stretch 4 like Jonas Jerebko flourish instead?
  • WAS - Kelly Oubre Jr. I was a big supporter and hopeful that he can supplant Kieff on the depth chart. 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

When looking at sleepers more or less these are guys stepping into bigger roles/minutes as a result of another player departing or being traded. Sleeper could also be guys who showed enough promise late last season or in the playoffs to be drafted. As far as Summer League performances go, mostly its means nothing as recent history has shown guys dominating (Jerryd Bayless for me always come to mind) but almost always doesn't translate to the regular season. 

 

Here is my attempt on identifying one sleeper per team. This could be guys you pick in the last rounds or guys who will be safe to pick early on because of increased opportunities from last year. My POV is always for 9-cat H2H, minimum 14 teams as I don't play in anything less. 

 

  • ATL - Taurean Prince. Easy. 1/1/1 potential plus THJ is gone and Baze sucks. John Collins later in the season. 
  • BOS - Jaylen Brown, like him more than Tatum. 
  • BKN - Allen Crabbe, could be a high volume 3pt shooter in that system. As always value will tie up if Atkinson sticks with his whacko 30 min limit again. Levert if he can push aside Carroll for good, which will most likely happen as the season progresses. 
  • CHA - Monk. This was tough but Monk shouldn't be nothing more than a 3 pt shooter with shaky %s at the most. 
  • CHI - Kris Dunn. He will have all the opportunity in front of him. Could be a nice steals specialist with a handful of dimes. 
  • CLE - Crowder. Another tough choice here, but I feel like Crowder will be on the floor a lot due to his intangibles and defense. Dependable 3 and STLs guy. 
  • DAL - DSJ. Might not crack top 100 but will give you some solid counting stats. 
  • DEN - Wilson Chandler. Gallo now gone and Chandler should soak a lot of minutes either at the 3 or 4 in small ball lineups. Underrated pickup for the last rounds. 
  • DET - Stanley Johnson, if only because this is his make or break year and Morris also now gone. Definitely worth a flyer within the last few rounds for upside potential. 
  • GSW - Nick Young - if you need a 3s boost in the last few rounds. 
  • IND - Turner. kind of cheating but I am a big fan of his game. If I have a late first round or early second round pick, I am nabbing Myles. Those delicious blocks and solid %s with improved counting stats will have a lot of value. He should outperform Kristaps this year and is a solid rock for punting assists. 
  • LAC - Lou Williams/Austin Rivers. Inevitably either Blake or Gallo will go down and these 2 guys figure to handle most of the load. 
  • LAL - KCP. Safe destination for him, another staple if you are 3s and stls hunting in the mid to late rounds. 
  • MEM - Jamychal Green, technically not signed yet but you get the picture. Z-Bo is gone. Mclemore also a nice injury stash. 
  • MIA - James Johnson, another 1/1/1 staple. 
  • MIL - Middleton, I feel you can get him at a discount this year. I am a bit worried how he will perform when Jabari's back up to speed but he's a good get in the 4th to 5th round and will be underdrafted. 
  • MIN - Dieng, I'm a big Dieng fan. Yes Taj is there to compete with his minutes but you know what you get with Dieng. Low counting stats, awesome %s with stocks to boot. 
  • NOP - Can't really recommend anyone here. I saw that Shabazz might be traded, and he will be a good get if that comes to fruition. Can be a scoring specialist. 
  • NYK - Hernangomez all the way. Hopefully he can shore up his block totals. 
  • OKC - no one really stands out aside from obviously PG13. Maybe Patterson but he's not consistent enough, hopefully he'll get more minutes. 
  • ORL - I haven't drafted Gordon before but this might be the year to expect the awaited uptick now that he's playing the 4 full time. 
  • PHI - Fultz and Simmons will get all the attention, but I have my eye on Richaun Holmes on the later rounds if I need a big. I don't trust Embiid will be healthy. 
  • PHO - Depending on need, its a tossup between Josh Jackson and TJ Warren. The former for stocks and the latter for scoring with solid FG%. 
  • POR - Cheating again but obviously Nurk will produce. He is the rare big who can provide elite bigman stats with ASSISTS and fixable FT% that doesn't force you to punt. If you draft a FT% anchor in the earlier rounds Nurk is a perfect complement. 
  • SAC - WCS. No brainer sleepr. 
  • SAS - Ehhh no standouts. Perhaps Murray?
  • TOR - Norman Powell, this guy produces Gary Harris-lite lines and hopefully he'll get more minutes. CJ Miles for 3 point hungry owners. 
  • UTA - Very tantalizing team for sleepers. Obviously Ingles and Hood will get upticks but I am curious with the Favors situation. Is he done? Will we see a stretch 4 like Jonas Jerebko flourish instead?
  • WAS - Kelly Oubre Jr. I was a big supporter and hopeful that he can supplant Kieff on the depth chart. 

 

 

It is very good post and I like it, but there are some players whom we can't consider as sleeper, because almost everybody know their strength - like Turner, Middleton, Dieng.

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Some less obvious sleepers:

 

CHI - Markkanen - should get a lot of opportunities on a weak Bulls squad.

 

DEN - Hernangomez (sp?) - heard good things about him, never seen him play though.

 

IND - Thad Young - Pacers aren't tanking so you'd think he keeps on doing what he's been doing 

 

LAL - Ingram - seems the forgotten man this off-season.

 

PHI - Redick - another forgotten man that has a proven track record

 

PHO - Chriss - seen a lot of guys taking him earlier in Mocks. What do they know that I don't?

 

SAC - Bogdanovic - just make sure you get the right one!

 

UTA - Mitchell - think he's gonna surprise people as a rook

 

WAS - Oubre - sneaky pick up that should be ready to take the next step

 

 

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14 hours ago, SicarioSanity said:

 

  • IND - Turner. kind of cheating but I am a big fan of his game. If I have a late first round or early second round pick, I am nabbing Myles.  

 

 

There's no upside to picking him there,  at all.  What's the point of that?  If you have the,  say,  11th pick you should not take him.  14th? Okay maybe.  Ideally he's available at the end of the second and you get great value. 

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8 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

There's no upside to picking him there,  at all.  What's the point of that?  If you have the,  say,  11th pick you should not take him.  14th? Okay maybe.  Ideally he's available at the end of the second and you get great value. 

As I said I only play in 14 team leagues at least so that's right up my alley. Maybe depends on personal preference because I am an advocate of punting assists first and foremost. Name me a player that can average more than 2 blocks and shoot above 50% from the field and above 80% from the line and has a chance to post 20 ppg and 9 to 10 RPG as well. Maybe I'm paying for his ceiling but I'll gladly take that risk and draft a safe guy early second round. KAT barely cleared 1 BPG last year and Porzingis still has Melo on his team. 

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30 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

As I said I only play in 14 team leagues at least so that's right up my alley. Maybe depends on personal preference because I am an advocate of punting assists first and foremost. Name me a player that can average more than 2 blocks and shoot above 50% from the field and above 80% from the line and has a chance to post 20 ppg and 9 to 10 RPG as well. Maybe I'm paying for his ceiling but I'll gladly take that risk and draft a safe guy early second round. KAT barely cleared 1 BPG last year and Porzingis still has Melo on his team. 

 

Barely cleared is a stretch, Towns 1.4 blocks the entire first half and went down to 1.3 in the second. He was also 1.7 blocks in his rookie season.

 

I'm reading a lot of posts here acting like KAT's block ceiling is somehow low, all of his physical tools/measurements/athletic ability/mobility/defensive awareness suggests he'll be elite in that category. It matters if the defense can properly funnel players into KAT, and the team has much better personnel to do that this year.

 

KAT in college was 4.4 blocks per 40 min adjusted. He was among the best shot blocking bigs in college. 

 

For your other question, Turner is one of those, Porzingis is another (but I doubt he'll ever clear 50% FG he's just not an interior player, he's a shooter), Embiid is another, and Brook Lopez is another. and a non C player who may do that is Giannis. Turner has the best shot of the bunch, most definitely. Brook Lopez is one of the most underrated commodities in fantasy, he got injured a few times and people just always underrate him, but he's extremely impactful. 

 

There's also other things at play here though, will Turner's 3 point output increase? He has that range, but I'm not confident Nate McMillan is going to adjust to the new NBA and have him shooting 3's (which is a shame because Turner can hit just as many threes as KAT, Embiid, Marc Gasol, and Brook Lopez). 

 

It also depends how you want to build your team. I have the #1 pick in my league, and while I'm most likely taking KAT first, I'm looking at taking another PG / C combo at the turn. I've had to decide during mocks anywhere between Porzingis, Turner, Embiid, Marc Gasol, and Brook Lopez, and it's a tough choice, they all lead me to build my team differently. With Gasol I get the best-all-around from all worlds because he still gives me 3's, blocks, steals, and assists like a guard, and I don't have to worry too much about a rebound drop off because KAT is an elite rebounder, with Embiid I get insane upside and per minute production, but I have to worry about injuries, he's also high TO, Turner doesn't assist like the other guys so he's essentially a better shot blocking/steals version of Brook Lopez but has a higher upside for rebounds. Lopez is steady all around but you know what his ceiling is. 20/7, great %'s, low TO, high blocks, a good amount of threes. Right now I can tell you I'm leaning Gasol just because of how hard it is to find good PGs, those assists to complement KAT's 2.7 - 3.0 APG is amazing.

 

I've been torn on who that second big is going to be, but I think preseason will have a lot to do with the perceptive value of some of these guys. Right now in mocks I'm doing I can tell you that people are usually torn on Porzingis / Turner before it gets to my pick. I usually get one and not the other dropping to me, and in some cases both are gone by the time it gets to me. Embiid always seems to be there because people are too scared to take a flier on him in the 2nd. 

 

In my real league I'm 100% sure Turner will be one of the first picks off the board at the start of the 2nd round, and Porzingis will also likely be gone by the mid to end of 2nd round. I feel Porzingis is the most overrated of the bunch, I owned him last year and his hot stretches are ridiculous - plus it's fun to send his highlights to people and show off your stud - but he's horrible when he's off and kills your %'s, doesn't rebound very well, and doesn't contribute anywhere else when his shot isn't falling. I also worry that his %'s are going to be horrible for a big this year with Melo gone just because of how bad NY is offensively. He's going to receive so much defensive attention and his game to me is not Dirk Nowitzki-esque because he can't dominate the post/strength matchup the way Dirk did, he's more of a mix between Dirk and Bargnani - right down the middle with more athleticism than both and far more passion than Bargs.. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

It also depends how you want to build your team. I have the #1 pick in my league, and while I'm most likely taking KAT first, I'm looking at taking another PG / C combo at the turn.

 

 

If I had the #1 pick I'd take Durant #1 and whatever PF/C and PG come back at the turn. The only real advantage KAT has over Durant in my mind is Durant has been a bit injury prone in recent years. KAT has to improve his stats to get to the tier KD is on, and he has to do it during a season where his team will be figuring out how to share the ball effectively. Durant is a much safer, easier to build around pick in my opinion. 

Anyway, as to the topic of the thread, there's a few players/situations that have me intrigued. I really want to see Boban get some more run in Detroit, and I'm wondering if its within the realm of possibility that he provides restorable value at some point in the season. In a similar vein I'm curious about Dragan Bender's progress in PHO and if he'll manage to be effective at some point this season. I'd also like to consider the Boston guys as potential sleepers, but I don't know if the PT will be there for them to put up the stats I'd need to roster them. Anyone else care to weigh in on these guys? 

 

I also like some of SicarioSanity's picks. I agree that Crowder can still be a decent pick for the second half of the draft as he should be able to carve out a nice utility role in CLE. I like Hernangomez in NYK as well, but based on the flashes he showed last year I'm not sure how much of a sleeper he'll be this year. I'm hoping James Johnson is slept on by the guys I'm drafting with so I can nab him in later rounds as well; love that 1/1/1 potential. I also agree on Green in MEM, could be a really nice value pick. Looking at the list again I agree with most of them; however I have a bit of a bias against rookies and tend to let other managers roll the dice on them, so I'd probably disagree with some of your picks like Josh Jackson/DSJ etc. 

 

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15 minutes ago, misterj said:

 

If I had the #1 pick I'd take Durant #1 and whatever PF/C and PG come back at the turn. The only real advantage KAT has over Durant in my mind is Durant has been a bit injury prone in recent years. KAT has to improve his stats to get to the tier KD is on, and he has to do it during a season where his team will be figuring out how to share the ball effectively. Durant is a much safer, easier to build around pick in my opinion. 

Anyway, as to the topic of the thread, there's a few players/situations that have me intrigued. I really want to see Boban get some more run in Detroit, and I'm wondering if its within the realm of possibility that he provides restorable value at some point in the season. In a similar vein I'm curious about Dragan Bender's progress in PHO and if he'll manage to be effective at some point this season. I'd also like to consider the Boston guys as potential sleepers, but I don't know if the PT will be there for them to put up the stats I'd need to roster them. Anyone else care to weigh in on these guys? 

 

I also like some of SicarioSanity's picks. I agree that Crowder can still be a decent pick for the second half of the draft as he should be able to carve out a nice utility role in CLE. I like Hernangomez in NYK as well, but based on the flashes he showed last year I'm not sure how much of a sleeper he'll be this year. I'm hoping James Johnson is slept on by the guys I'm drafting with so I can nab him in later rounds as well; love that 1/1/1 potential. I also agree on Green in MEM, could be a really nice value pick. Looking at the list again I agree with most of them; however I have a bit of a bias against rookies and tend to let other managers roll the dice on them, so I'd probably disagree with some of your picks like Josh Jackson/DSJ etc. 

 

 

KAT has the rebounding prowess on him (but KD pretty much out does him everywhere else except PPG and FG - some minor differences), you can also argue that KD's career high shot-blocking might be a one year aberration and he'll go back to career norms of 1.0 or 1.1. But I agree KD is basically the perfect fantasy player and he's in his prime right now. Again, am I comfortable with the idea that there is potential here for this guy to either be rested or get injured for 20 games or more? He never had that problem earlier in his career, and some people argued his injuries have been complete flukes, so there's that.

 

My thing with taking KAT is position scarcity, and durability. If KD goes down again I'll be happy knowing KAT is playing the whole year. Also, there's still tantalizing upside here - that's another argument for drafting KAT. KAT is only 22 and already put up a historically good season last year.. the 'too many mouths to feed' argument doesn't really stand nowadays because as I argued earlier in this thread almost every team now possesses up to 2-3-4 good scorers and high usage players and yet you still have guys feasting. There is a hierarchy in terms of talent, and KAT is not going to go down below Teague/Wiggins. Butler as the man with the Bulls (23 ppg) still couldn't outscore Towns. So I also think he's the Robin to Towns Batman - just depends down the stretch since Butler is one of the most clutch players in the league. People had the same concerns with Towns last year being surrounded by superior talent, and he still averaged 25 ppg in the first half and 28 ppg in the second half of the season.

 

It's totally feasible for KAT to reach a 28 / 13 / 4 / 1 / 1.7 on 55-60% FG and 84% FT season while hitting 1.5 - 2 3's per game out of the C spot, he has that kind of ability. He would've been right there with KD at #1 or #2 if his blocks weren't .8 over the last few months of the year... 

 

I don't know about you, and some people here disagree with me, but I just think there are barely any good C's beyond round 2. I don't like any poor FT% shooting bigs, so I'll always avoid a Capela. I've twice ran a Towns / Gasol / Horford combo in mocks, but when I take KD first I usually end up with one decent big in the 2nd or 3rd, but then your third choice of big ends up being someone like WCS or a Gortat type in the later rounds.. for me I like my bigs to be elite because I feel like it gives me an inherent advantage over guys who only have 1 elite big. It's kind of ironic in that sense, fantasy has actually moved more toward a small ball approach just like the NBA has - I regularly see guys in my league with 2 mediocre bigs (I've seen guys run Dieng / Tristan Thompson combos and all elite guard / SF lineups and they finish very well but can never win it all at the end). 

 

We know who KD is, we've yet to see what Towns full potential is. I've done builds with both guys in multiple mocks and came out #1 in the projected standings multiple times with each guy based on the builds (not that this means a whole lot, but it's still worth noting). I play around with who I can get at the end of the turn and match them up properly with each guy.

While it hasn't happened up to now, we also have to start wondering at what point the Warriors say we've won two championships and we win 65+ games every season, let's rest some of these guys down the stretch. They've played Curry pretty much the entire season for a few years now despite all this, so it's not a concern yet - especially given their youth.

 

It's a hard debate for me, I love both guys, I just have a biased man-crush on the latter.

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3 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

 

Barely cleared is a stretch, Towns 1.4 blocks the entire first half and went down to 1.3 in the second. He was also 1.7 blocks in his rookie season.

 

I'm reading a lot of posts here acting like KAT's block ceiling is somehow low, all of his physical tools/measurements/athletic ability/mobility/defensive awareness suggests he'll be elite in that category. It matters if the defense can properly funnel players into KAT, and the team has much better personnel to do that this year.

 

KAT in college was 4.4 blocks per 40 min adjusted. He was among the best shot blocking bigs in college. 

 

For your other question, Turner is one of those, Porzingis is another (but I doubt he'll ever clear 50% FG he's just not an interior player, he's a shooter), Embiid is another, and Brook Lopez is another. and a non C player who may do that is Giannis. Turner has the best shot of the bunch, most definitely. Brook Lopez is one of the most underrated commodities in fantasy, he got injured a few times and people just always underrate him, but he's extremely impactful. 

 

There's also other things at play here though, will Turner's 3 point output increase? He has that range, but I'm not confident Nate McMillan is going to adjust to the new NBA and have him shooting 3's (which is a shame because Turner can hit just as many threes as KAT, Embiid, Marc Gasol, and Brook Lopez). 

 

It also depends how you want to build your team. I have the #1 pick in my league, and while I'm most likely taking KAT first, I'm looking at taking another PG / C combo at the turn. I've had to decide during mocks anywhere between Porzingis, Turner, Embiid, Marc Gasol, and Brook Lopez, and it's a tough choice, they all lead me to build my team differently. With Gasol I get the best-all-around from all worlds because he still gives me 3's, blocks, steals, and assists like a guard, and I don't have to worry too much about a rebound drop off because KAT is an elite rebounder, with Embiid I get insane upside and per minute production, but I have to worry about injuries, he's also high TO, Turner doesn't assist like the other guys so he's essentially a better shot blocking/steals version of Brook Lopez but has a higher upside for rebounds. Lopez is steady all around but you know what his ceiling is. 20/7, great %'s, low TO, high blocks, a good amount of threes. Right now I can tell you I'm leaning Gasol just because of how hard it is to find good PGs, those assists to complement KAT's 2.7 - 3.0 APG is amazing.

 

I've been torn on who that second big is going to be, but I think preseason will have a lot to do with the perceptive value of some of these guys. Right now in mocks I'm doing I can tell you that people are usually torn on Porzingis / Turner before it gets to my pick. I usually get one and not the other dropping to me, and in some cases both are gone by the time it gets to me. Embiid always seems to be there because people are too scared to take a flier on him in the 2nd. 

 

In my real league I'm 100% sure Turner will be one of the first picks off the board at the start of the 2nd round, and Porzingis will also likely be gone by the mid to end of 2nd round. I feel Porzingis is the most overrated of the bunch, I owned him last year and his hot stretches are ridiculous - plus it's fun to send his highlights to people and show off your stud - but he's horrible when he's off and kills your %'s, doesn't rebound very well, and doesn't contribute anywhere else when his shot isn't falling. I also worry that his %'s are going to be horrible for a big this year with Melo gone just because of how bad NY is offensively. He's going to receive so much defensive attention and his game to me is not Dirk Nowitzki-esque because he can't dominate the post/strength matchup the way Dirk did, he's more of a mix between Dirk and Bargnani - right down the middle with more athleticism than both and far more passion than Bargs.. 

 

I definitely forgot about Brook. Owned him last year and was only a disappointment due to his coach resting him sporadically during the season. I feel like he should be somewhat a safe pick in the 3rd or 4th rounds and will be underdrafted. He might be usurped by Zubac, but he wasn't exactly consistent last year. Plus Brook has an expiring contract and has a chance to be traded to an unideal destination come the deadline.

 

Marc Gasol is solid, if I get a guard with my first few picks he will be an excellent complement. As with you, I don't have the stomach to draft Embiid during the 2nd or 3rd round as well. I would add Nurkic to that list but maybe a tier below those guys. With Myles obviously I am a big fan and i feel that he won't be available during the late 2nd for sure that's why I am reaching for him during the late first early second. We will also have to wait for the updated Yahoo rankings I'm sure he will be higher than the 31 he is ranked at now. Lastly I agree with everything you said about Porzingis but if Melo gets traded, look out. With that being said I agree that his FG% will unlikely be over 50 making him an unreliable FG% anchor.

 

For the #1 pick if I have it, it will be between KD and Alphabet over KAT. Those two for me are easier to build around than KAT and will unlock more possible combinations for the next few rounds. A minor argument could be made again for MIN's bad playoff schedule as well (2 years in a row haha). BUT the chasm shouldn't be too big as the advantage of picking first means that you will be picking back to back in the 2nd and 3rd round meaning you can change draft strategies on the fly and not worry about being sniped and having to "settle" for your second choice. 

 

 

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I hear you, I'm still debating the pick myself. Though my issue with Giannis is that he could be capped close to what he did last year, and he also shot 72% FT over the 2nd half which is in line with his career numbers.. he doesn't shoot 3's, high TOs (could be higher with more responsibility), and if his FT plummets it also means he won't be a top 5 pick - he'll be closer to LeBron's range ranking wise. People are basically banking that he improves his jumpshot (hits at least a 3 per game), and keeps his FT high, while also increasing his assists (all three things are possible, but I'm banking that it doesn't happen). So for me it comes down to the most stable Center versus the best all around fantasy small forward. I have to say, the idea of pairing KD with 2 bigs in round 2 and round 3 seems intriguing.. get a passing big like Marc/perhaps another like Horford or Brook Lopez, and then get some cheap PGs in the rounds after, could be pretty devastating.

 

I also think it's scary to pass up Durant, I could get Towns and he could just be capped due to his teammates, while Durant is basically an easy way to make the playoffs as long as you have good enough pieces.

 

Anyway, back to the real topic at hand, I like some of your sleepers as well as others have said, though I'm still torn on Oubre. You and I both were some of the guys touting him around here, but he really fizzled. I question how many weapons Washington has to truly let him shine. He has the ability to be the defacto sixth man for them, he's definitely got a higher scoring ceiling than Porter does - but Porter is the far better all around two-way player. The other problem here is Scott Brooks, in years past he loved to play Kendrick Perkins way too many minutes even tough everyone was screaming for OKC to play small ball. They can use Kieff at C and play Porter at the 4, Oubre at the 3, that would be a very scary stretch shooting lineup that could compete with anyone. I'm interested to see if eventually it'll just hit him in the face and he'll realize he has to throw some more small-ball out there, but so far he's been reluctant to do that and has loved to play Gortat/Smith/Mahinmi.

 

 

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8 hours ago, SicarioSanity said:

As I said I only play in 14 team leagues at least so that's right up my alley. Maybe depends on personal preference because I am an advocate of punting assists first and foremost. Name me a player that can average more than 2 blocks and shoot above 50% from the field and above 80% from the line and has a chance to post 20 ppg and 9 to 10 RPG as well. Maybe I'm paying for his ceiling but I'll gladly take that risk and draft a safe guy early second round. KAT barely cleared 1 BPG last year and Porzingis still has Melo on his team. 

I'm a Turner fan.  In my default, "main" 14 teamer that's going into year 10 this year, I already know I'm picking 12th and I might grab him then (due to a keeper situation, KAT isn't on the board so my pick is more like the 13th, really).  If he's there at 16 I'm almost certainly taking him.

 

That said...

 

He really did fall off in the second half of the season.  He was ranked 25th for the whole year in standard 9 cat but 30th in the last two months and 33rd in the last three months.

 

That's significant.  That means he was a surefire early second rounder through the first half of the season and then played like a third or early fourth rounder for certain stretches to end up at that final 25 spot.

 

Again, I'm a fan and I'll glad take him in the mid teens, but let's not overlook that last year was a dramatic tale of two season for him.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

I hear you, I'm still debating the pick myself. Though my issue with Giannis is that he could be capped close to what he did last year, and he also shot 72% FT over the 2nd half which is in line with his career numbers.. he doesn't shoot 3's, high TOs (could be higher with more responsibility), and if his FT plummets it also means he won't be a top 5 pick - he'll be closer to LeBron's range ranking wise. People are basically banking that he improves his jumpshot (hits at least a 3 per game), and keeps his FT high, while also increasing his assists (all three things are possible, but I'm banking that it doesn't happen). So for me it comes down to the most stable Center versus the best all around fantasy small forward. I have to say, the idea of pairing KD with 2 bigs in round 2 and round 3 seems intriguing.. get a passing big like Marc/perhaps another like Horford or Brook Lopez, and then get some cheap PGs in the rounds after, could be pretty devastating.

 

I also think it's scary to pass up Durant, I could get Towns and he could just be capped due to his teammates, while Durant is basically an easy way to make the playoffs as long as you have good enough pieces.

 

Anyway, back to the real topic at hand, I like some of your sleepers as well as others have said, though I'm still torn on Oubre. You and I both were some of the guys touting him around here, but he really fizzled. I question how many weapons Washington has to truly let him shine. He has the ability to be the defacto sixth man for them, he's definitely got a higher scoring ceiling than Porter does - but Porter is the far better all around two-way player. The other problem here is Scott Brooks, in years past he loved to play Kendrick Perkins way too many minutes even tough everyone was screaming for OKC to play small ball. They can use Kieff at C and play Porter at the 4, Oubre at the 3, that would be a very scary stretch shooting lineup that could compete with anyone. I'm interested to see if eventually it'll just hit him in the face and he'll realize he has to throw some more small-ball out there, but so far he's been reluctant to do that and has loved to play Gortat/Smith/Mahinmi.

 

 

 

Ha! Yes I remember last year it was between Oubre or Harkless for 1/1/1 upside (little did we know if would be James Johnson) and even if the latter didn't perform at par with most people's expectations, he did still outperform Oubre who was way more inconsistent.  Anyway, that small ball lineup for the Wiz can really do some damage. I had Gortat on multiple teams last year because he was always solid and dependable, but his production fell of a cliff after the all star break once Mahinmi cut into his minutes. Sad to say I don't think I'll be targeting Gortat this year except if he falls far. 

 

You are right about the FT% troubles of Giannis but I have a good feeling he'll be shooting 80% this year. Unlike Westy or Harden his TOs are more manageable if you make a conscious effort to control your TOs during the draft. From my end what gives him a slight advantage over KD is because of his combination of above average assists and blocks (basically both a PG and C in one pick), I wouldn't mind if he still doesn't develop a 3 ball this year as you can address that easily later on in your draft and hopefully he keeps his FG% impact high. 

 

Looking back at my sleeper list the other posters above mentioned intriguing names who I overlooked as well:

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic - after watching Eurobasket action plus his rookie contract, I am thinking he gets some real burn for the Kings this year. He's a natural 2 but Buddy already has that spot so I'm thinking he spends his time on the 3. Solid upside for a last round pick. 
  • Glenn Robinson III and Dewayne Dedmon - if only since they are in line for bigger roles this year as well. I still like John Collins more than Dedmon though especially once the season progresses. 
  • Denzel Valentine - we'll see but as with Robinson and Dedmon he is in line for more minutes by default. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

I'm a Turner fan.  In my default, "main" 14 teamer that's going into year 10 this year, I already know I'm picking 12th and I might grab him then (due to a keeper situation, KAT isn't on the board so my pick is more like the 13th, really).  If he's there at 16 I'm almost certainly taking him.

 

That said...

 

He really did fall off in the second half of the season.  He was ranked 25th for the whole year in standard 9 cat but 30th in the last two months and 33rd in the last three months.

 

That's significant.  That means he was a surefire early second rounder through the first half of the season and then played like a third or early fourth rounder for certain stretches to end up at that final 25 spot.

 

Again, I'm a fan and I'll glad take him in the mid teens, but let's not overlook that last year was a dramatic tale of two season for him.

 

 

No worries man, appreciate your comments. I didn't own Myles last year so I wasn't aware of this "split". But I believe in general we both have the same range that we are willing to nab him, and that is the mid teens.

 

Can't wait to own him this year due to his upside but of course only under the right circumstances, I am not doing anything crazy like picking Myles over the likes of AD :)

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In general I like having 2 bigs and 2 pgs out of the first 4 rounds.  Then I like Ariza and/or Covington in the 5th/6th.  Generally, I then try to get Noel/Favors in the 7th/8th.  I don't fill out my wings until later.  If I can get SG eligible player in the first round (Curry, Harden, or Kawhi), it helps out a lot because it stops me from needing to take a crappy SG later on.  

 

More to the discussion about bigs, I've been experimenting taking Kristaps and Love, and punting FG%.  They both score 20ish PPG, get out of position 3s, Kristaps excells in blocks and Love excels rebounds.  I'm already slightly inclined to punt FG% anyway as I think Rubio is going to have a big year and Ariza/Covington types are generally underrated.  

 

It's particularly easy to do this in auctions because Love's preset auction value is under $20 this year.  Even in mocks with real humans I haven't seen him go for more than $26, which I think is a steal.

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10 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

In general I like having 2 bigs and 2 pgs out of the first 4 rounds.  Then I like Ariza and/or Covington in the 5th/6th.  Generally, I then try to get Noel/Favors in the 7th/8th.  I don't fill out my wings until later.  If I can get SG eligible player in the first round (Curry, Harden, or Kawhi), it helps out a lot because it stops me from needing to take a crappy SG later on.  

 

More to the discussion about bigs, I've been experimenting taking Kristaps and Love, and punting FG%.  They both score 20ish PPG, get out of position 3s, Kristaps excells in blocks and Love excels rebounds.  I'm already slightly inclined to punt FG% anyway as I think Rubio is going to have a big year and Ariza/Covington types are generally underrated.  

 

It's particularly easy to do this in auctions because Love's preset auction value is under $20 this year.  Even in mocks with real humans I haven't seen him go for more than $26, which I think is a steal.

 

I've always felt punt FG is the easiest punt of all. I've won two leagues using this strat. It has been a tad miss or hit for me at times, but it's very viable. The reason being is that generally it does two things:

 

1. It allows you to choose from a very large pool of players, guys who you may avoid on draft day due to lower FG (say like an Ariza or a Kyle Lowry in years past) you can now look forward to drafting. 

 

2. It indicates that the player is a high usage player. High usage often means more stats since the player has the ball in his hands more.

 

Westbrook has helped me win a league with this strat a few years back, but you're essentially tanking two cats since low FG and high TO are closely related.

 

 

 

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Yeah the two punts I've had the most success with are polar opposites. 1) punt assists, generally picking up more big men than average and high steal wings such kawhi, butler, ariza, Covington.  I try to draft a decent PG whose value is in scoring, such as Curry, Irving, Lillard.   If I can't get one of those then I'll just take a cheap fill in such as Patrick Beverley or George Hill, who hits threes and gets steals.  Alternatively, I'll go punt FG/TO and do the opposite, draft a bunch of PGs, maybe as many as 6.  Fill in the wings with Ariza/Covington types.  The big men who are good in this build are primarily Cousins, Kristaps, Love. As you stated, the key to punting is expanding your player pool, not restricting it.  This is why I'm not a huge fan of punt FT%.  As I feel instead of expanding your viable player pool it restricts it to about half a dozen big men in the front court and you're scrambling to fill in the little man stats (assists, steals, threes) in a way that makes sense given your punt.  

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8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Yeah the two punts I've had the most success with are polar opposites. 1) punt assists, generally picking up more big men than average and high steal wings such kawhi, butler, ariza, Covington.  I try to draft a decent PG whose value is in scoring, such as Curry, Irving, Lillard.   If I can't get one of those then I'll just take a cheap fill in such as Patrick Beverley or George Hill, who hits threes and gets steals.  Alternatively, I'll go punt FG/TO and do the opposite, draft a bunch of PGs, maybe as many as 6.  Fill in the wings with Ariza/Covington types.  The big men who are good in this build are primarily Cousins, Kristaps, Love. As you stated, the key to punting is expanding your player pool, not restricting it.  This is why I'm not a huge fan of punt FT%.  As I feel instead of expanding your viable player pool it restricts it to about half a dozen big men in the front court and you're scrambling to fill in the little man stats (assists, steals, threes) in a way that makes sense given your punt.  

Picking in the back end or the last pick of the draft I also like the CP3 + Draymond Green combo and punt points. Follow it up with Horford and Rubio and you're pretty much set in all cats except of course points. I'd also put Otto as a great fit here during these rounds as well. You can then target bigs who won't nuke your FT% such as Dieng, Ibaka, WCS, Adams, Tristan Thompson and Noel.  For guards I am aiming at those multi cat producers in the mid to late rounds such as D'Angelo Russell, Holiday, take a risk on either Ball or Fultz, Hill, Brogdon or PatBev. Lastly you can round out your team with underrated 1/1/1 or multicat wings such as Ingles (I'd target him starting in the 100s, he is on everyone's sleeper list and is a godsend on the punt points build), Harkless, Valentine, Taurean Prince and Oubre. Depends on your need actually. You can also target Crabbe, JR or Nick Young if you are starving for threes. 

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Who are sleepers for assists in the mid-late rounds?

 

I've started with Jokic, Whiteside, Nurkic and Schroeder (in this order, 14 team 9 cat). Even though I've gone 3 bigs to start I feel like I could still target assists given Jokic is going to give me great dimes from the big spot and maybe some value from Nurkic as well (3 a game as a Blazer last year).


 

 

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11 minutes ago, IronFlag said:

Who are sleepers for assists in the mid-late rounds?

 

I've started with Jokic, Whiteside, Nurkic and Schroeder (in this order, 14 team 9 cat). Even though I've gone 3 bigs to start I feel like I could still target assists given Jokic is going to give me great dimes from the big spot and maybe some value from Nurkic as well (3 a game as a Blazer last year).


 

 

Collison, Beverley, Teodosic, Tyler Johnson, Brogdan, Teague, Winslow, Dennis Smith Jr, George Hill, Reggie Jackson, and Lin.

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