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Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


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^ I whole heartedly disagree. Say everything clears with the trial, he's a fine pick in the 8th round or so. He doesn't have the upside to grab him earlier. 

 

This is the old age question of upside versus consistent productivity.

 

People want Chriss because he's the next best thing. But he's also a sophmore, still raw, and he's still going to be very inconsistent. He had some of the worst foul trouble of any player, around 5.4 fouls per 36 min if I'm correct. He was also one of the worst mid range shooters in the entire league as a rookie. He's working on it. He'll definitely give you some sexy games where his blocks/steals/3's are so tantalizing out of that position, but he'll also kill your %'s during bad streaks and have stretches where he's barely seeing the floor due to foul trouble.

 

The reason I'm stating this very thing is because I'm that guy who every other year or so overlooks the guys who do it in and out every game, and end up grabbing the guy that screams 'I'm going to be a fantasy superstar'. The problem is, it's not now, it's a few years down the road. Players are much more likely to break out in their 3rd - 4th - 5th years (see Kemba or John Wall, even Beal didn't truly have a great season until last year his 5th year in the league). 

 

And you know who ends up winning the leagues? My friend who chooses to go for the boring-steady guys and ignore the upside. While I grab upside guys, I have to wait weeks/months for decent production, and even if they do produce they'll go multiple-game stretches doing nothing only to tease you for a short run where they put up mind-blowing numbers. This guy every year finishes in the top 3 seedings and has  won 3 leagues (I've won 3 in the past 7 years as well) and this is a hyper-competitive league with by-the-second pickups. My friend loves the Danny Greens, the Wes Matthews, the Trevor Arizas, the KCPs. He picks the underrated guys in the middle-to-late rounds while everyone looks at a Jamal Murray. 

 

So you'll take Kieff, he'll give you the same old 14/6, %'s, low TO, decent steals, sprinkle in 3's and blocks, and you won't have to deal with the headache of a guy who may go on a 10 game run where he's putting up duds, but you'll win weeks.

 

I have to remind myself that again this year, because there are years where I employ the consistent but boring strategy and sprinkle in 1-2 upside guys in the draft and I do very well in the standings/playoffs, and then there are years where I'm scratching and clawing to make the playoffs and end up changing half my roster because I drafted almost entirely based on upside.

 

I'm not making that mistake again this year.

 

I'll have a few upside guys, but I'll be going steady and boring, that's what wins leagues. 

 

NBA guys generally somehow are able to stretch this stuff out and keep playing (see Mike Scott) with high paid lawyers and money on their side. I doubt this endangers his season unless the NBA decides to suspend him, but then you may get a steal 2 rounds later since his value will drop.

Edited by Lifschitz
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1 hour ago, blob2004 said:

Schroder, DAR, Fultz, Dennis Smith JR - popular mid round pick PG's. How does everyone rank them?

 

Bad ast:to ratios, low steals for all of them. I think DSJ has a chance to be the best guy for defensive stats, but not this year. In non-dynasty settings I'd probably prefer a guy like Darren Collinson over all four of them.

 

Malcolm Brogdon or Jamal Murray? I think Brogdon will hover around ~80 value in 9 cat. Murray has a chance to outperform that. If you want safe and steady production where %s and TO's dont hurt you, get Brogdon. If you want excitement, get Murrray as he might ruin FG and TO. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

 

Bad ast:to ratios, low steals for all of them. I think DSJ has a chance to be the best guy for defensive stats, but not this year. In non-dynasty settings I'd probably prefer a guy like Darren Collinson over all four of them.

 

Malcolm Brogdon or Jamal Murray? I think Brogdon will hover around ~80 value in 9 cat. Murray has a chance to outperform that. If you want safe and steady production where %s and TO's dont hurt you, get Brogdon. If you want excitement, get Murrray as he might ruin FG and TO. 

 

 

DAR should average over 1.5 steals so he's the exception.

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4 hours ago, blob2004 said:

what about early mid round PG's - Rubio, Dragic, Teague, Holiday, Bledsoe?

Bledsoe is undoubtedly the best, if there would have not been injury concern. Next safe is Dragic, because all others have something changed: Rubio and Teague in new team and Holiday has new PG-teammate (Rondo).

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6 hours ago, rob0403 said:

Is it just me or is DSJ in overhype territory right now in redrafts? I mean he is still just a rookie and mid rounds valuation is a best case scenario for him?

Happens every year with rookies. Going by BBM's projections, only one rookie is projected to finish with value close to his mid-round ADP. Every other rookie including DSJ is projected to finish worse than 120+.  

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If DSJ was playing somewhere poor like for the Nets or another organization I'd be more hyped, but I'm worried about potential ups and downs playing for Carlisle.

 

1. Carlisle generally doesn't like rookies.

2. Carlisle's system isn't point guard dependent. 

3. Carlisle likes a half court heavy/play the clock offense, because he likes his team to make stops defensively.

4. He loves to play deep rotations where he'll use all of his guards at varying points (Devin Harris, Barea, Yogi, Curry, etc.)

 

I still think he'll have a good year, but I'd be more excited if he was on a team where you know for sure his coach will unleash him.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lifschitz said:

If DSJ was playing somewhere poor like for the Nets or another organization I'd be more hyped, but I'm worried about potential ups and downs playing for Carlisle.

 

1. Carlisle generally doesn't like rookies.

2. Carlisle's system isn't point guard dependent. 

3. Carlisle likes a half court heavy/play the clock offense, because he likes his team to make stops defensively.

4. He loves to play deep rotations where he'll use all of his guards at varying points (Devin Harris, Barea, Yogi, Curry, etc.)

 

I still think he'll have a good year, but I'd be more excited if he was on a team where you know for sure his coach will unleash him.

 

 

 

 

 

All are fair points, but both Carlisle and Cuban have mentioned DSJ a** their next star. They havent said this about many other players in the past. I'm expecting around 27-30 minutes a game for him, and he could do some damage in those minutes. Say, 15 pts, 4+ ast, 1+ stl, somewhere between 41-43 FG%, maybe close to a three and similar FT% to what he did in college as well as close to 3.5 TO. The FT and TO will probably hold him back mostly. 

 

It would put him in company of comparable rookie PG's such as Francis, Stoudamire, Marbury, Jennings and Irving. Roy, Curry, Iverson put up at least those stats as well. Those are the only rookies to put up at least those stats. So there's definately a lofty goal here for DSJ. I believe he has the tools, drive and skills to do so, and the fact he was drafted 9th was because there were doubts about both his knees as well as his atttitude. Not about his skill level. All PG's mentioned before put up better stats than the ones I mentioned. However, almost all of them played heavy minutes (34-40) aside from Kyrie and Jennings. 

 

It would have him rank between 50 and 70 in 9 cat.

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Just a general question for you guys, how much disparity do you have between your mock draft picks and your real draft? I know preseason obviously plays a major part of perceptive value (certain sleepers will go up three-four-five rounds some times if they have a great preseason).

 

I find myself often getting more aggressive on sleepers even though I tell myself to stave off by 2 rounds and keep it true to my mock drafts (for example I regularly took Nurkic in the 5th round last year on DEN because of his play in both FIBA and Preseason and hype and it cost me badly), I fear other owners thinking the same and reaching for guys I like. It is a double edged sword because it's cost opportunity - that reach if it doesn't pan out costs me a pick which made more sense in that round.. would like to see how some of you approach this dilemma. 

 

The way some people I know approach it is as a rule of thumb they keep the sleepers at their original valuation (few rounds lower unlike the RW hype train), and just take the safe picks for that round regardless whether that guy gets taken or not as a reach

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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1 hour ago, Lifschitz said:

keep the sleepers at their original valuation (few rounds lower unlike the RW hype train), and just take the safe picks for that round regardless whether that guy gets taken or not as a reach

 

This is the way to play it IMO.  Hype trains are fun and all but they can really cost you if you get caught up in getting 'your guy' or guys.  Basically, take a look at the 2-man mock that the RW writers did and you'll see perfect examples of this.  Guys like Chriss, DSJ, Murray, Fultz, etc. were taken entirely too high, which then created hype and unrealistic expectations for anyone that reads their stuff.  IMO, that's something they never should have published because it probably mislead a lot of their readers.  I just hope nobody used that mock as a guideline for their draft.

 

I love chasing big upside but I leave that for rounds 7 and beyond once my core is intact and try not to get carried away with too many high-risk guys.  Stick true to your personal rankings and it'll leave you with less headaches throughout your draft and throughout the season.  

 

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3 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Just a general question for you guys, how much disparity do you have between your mock draft picks and your real draft? I know preseason obviously plays a major part of perceptive value (certain sleepers will go up three-four-five rounds some times if they have a great preseason).

 

I find myself often getting more aggressive on sleepers even though I tell myself to stave off by 2 rounds and keep it true to my mock drafts (for example I regularly took Nurkic in the 5th round last year on DEN because of his play in both FIBA and Preseason and hype and it cost me badly), I fear other owners thinking the same and reaching for guys I like. It is a double edged sword because it's cost opportunity - that reach if it doesn't pan out costs me a pick which made more sense in that round.. would like to see how some of you approach this dilemma. 

 

The way some people I know approach it is as a rule of thumb they keep the sleepers at their original valuation (few rounds lower unlike the RW hype train), and just take the safe picks for that round regardless whether that guy gets taken or not as a reach

 

 

After the first 5 or 6 rounds I take "my" guys regardless of where they're ranked.

 

Right now I'm taking a guy like Gary Harris in the 6th or 7th round and comments usually come through "why is his Yahoo ranking so low"...so people know it's low and are hoping to grab him later.

 

When I've waited beyond the 7th round someone grabs Harris before me in the 8th...so I'm guessing that person knows he was in the top 60 last season and held off for as long as he thought was reasonable

 

Wait too long and some savvy guy will poach your player - knowing the other guys skill level in your league is crucial 

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This is good advice. Allow others to get caught up in hype and get more value for your team 

1 hour ago, BoogieNights said:

 

This is the way to play it IMO.  Hype trains are fun and all but they can really cost you if you get caught up in getting 'your guy' or guys.  Basically, take a look at the 2-man mock that the RW writers did and you'll see perfect examples of this.  Guys like Chriss, DSJ, Murray, Fultz, etc. were taken entirely too high, which then created hype and unrealistic expectations for anyone that reads their stuff.  IMO, that's something they never should have published because it probably mislead a lot of their readers.  I just hope nobody used that mock as a guideline for their draft.

 

I love chasing big upside but I leave that for rounds 7 and beyond once my core is intact and try not to get carried away with too many high-risk guys.  Stick true to your personal rankings and it'll leave you with less headaches throughout your draft and throughout the season.  

 

 

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I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

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6 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

Dirk might be undervalued but other than that I'm not touching that with a 10 foot pole

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I feel Gasol, Chandler, Dirk, Korver and maybe now even Tony Allen could be 13th roster pieces to championship teams. Chandler for FG, Reb, Dirk for scoring/%'s, Gasol same and some reb/blk, Allen for stl and FG, Korver for 3pt while not hurting FG. None of them really hurt your TO either. That's better value than taking a risk on a rookie who are known to rarely rank top 100, while often hurting your %'s or TO's. 

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2 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

I really don't think I'm targeting any of them besides Wade, but only if I already have upside and if he falls. Maybe.

To the last several posts, during the "your guys" phase of the draft, you also have to consider your draft position. If you're picking back to back you're almost certainly going to have to reach for your guys, especially in 14+ leagues.

 I like to take risks but it also depends on position scarcity

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7 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Just a general question for you guys, how much disparity do you have between your mock draft picks and your real draft? I know preseason obviously plays a major part of perceptive value (certain sleepers will go up three-four-five rounds some times if they have a great preseason).

 

I find myself often getting more aggressive on sleepers even though I tell myself to stave off by 2 rounds and keep it true to my mock drafts (for example I regularly took Nurkic in the 5th round last year on DEN because of his play in both FIBA and Preseason and hype and it cost me badly), I fear other owners thinking the same and reaching for guys I like. It is a double edged sword because it's cost opportunity - that reach if it doesn't pan out costs me a pick which made more sense in that round.. would like to see how some of you approach this dilemma. 

 

The way some people I know approach it is as a rule of thumb they keep the sleepers at their original valuation (few rounds lower unlike the RW hype train), and just take the safe picks for that round regardless whether that guy gets taken or not as a reach

 

 

 

i rarely fall victim to the hype train guys... while, yea, ill want them, someone innevitably drafts them way too early anyway, making my decision easier...in regards to mock vs real draft...ive found that my real life drafts NEVER look like the 100 mocks i did leading up to it... mocks just arent a good representation if you have  experienced guys in the real draft...

 

4 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

 

Dirk if he's low enough and i think ZBo could have value too... wont actively look for any of them though

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4 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

 

I think Pau is a perfectly reasonable pick this year.  He is probably going to produce similarly to last season - solid but on limited minutes, without hurting any efficiency cats.  Nice safe pick in the later rounds. I don't want any of the other guys except Dirk.

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6 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

Allen since he might be the starting SF in the NO weak wing deficient lineup. Wade, still trying to prove himself or get traded/bought out. Gasol is a solid piece nice 7/7 maybe as well as same for ZBo.

 

Everybody else will be waiver wire pickups when a key person is injured or disappointing and the team is trying to compete for a playoff spot.

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