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Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


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7 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'll grab Gary Harris in the 5th, too. 

 

So, this thread is about Sleepers and Players to Avoid.

 

What are your thoughts on these guys aged 34 or over?

 

Pau Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Nene Hilario
Vince Carter
Joe Johnson
Kyle Korver
Dwyane Wade
Zach Randolph
Tony Allen
Manu Ginobili
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki

 

How deep is this hypothetical league?  H2H or roto?

 

Gasol is almost a lock for top 100 value and probably will be 12/7 with 1 block on good efficiency.  

 

I think with Noel for the entire season it will put less pressure on Dirk and he has proved quite durable.  His minutes may be below 24, but with injury hopefully behind him, he could play without rest days for 3/4 of the season until they shut him down.  He could put up something like 16/6 with 1.5 3s on elite efficiency, making him top 75 during the games he plays.  If you're roto, you don't care that much if he gets shutdown if he is valuable for most of the season; whereas, in H2H he may be literally undraftable as it's likely he gets shutdown for fantasy playoffs.

 

Chandler will also be top 75 for the games he plays solely because he gets 10+ RPG while being one the few players who can be a FG% anchor without hurting your FT% or TO.  However, you run the same risk of being being undraftable in H2H.

 

Wade might have some low end value but he's had an unfriendly fantasy game for years due to high TO relative to production and being a SG who doesn't hit threes.  He might be worth a gamble in the final round or $1 in auction in 8 cat roto because you don't care about TO or games missed.


Korver might be worth a last round pick for 2.4 3PG on excellent efficiency, although there are so many players like that the only reason to pick him over others is as a pet pick.

 

Allen may also be worth a last round flyer for his nearly 2 SPG and that he may have some opportunity, although again there are better picks in standard leagues for steals, with more upside.

 

The others barely had above replacement level stats last year and aren't getting any younger.

 

Keep in mind, I'm not recommending these players, just expressing where they *might* be worth a flyer.  On most of these players, you're really scraping the bottom of the barrel in deep, redraft leagues.

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I dont know why this hasnt been touched on yet with the possibility of half a season oh starting minutes and their draft positions BUT

 

Rose and Reggie jackson for round 10-11.. I also want to sneak Noel in around the same place but which PG would you guys expect to have the better stats? Rose may come out with a point to prove and lebron has a habbit of killing fantasy value (Love) and also boosting it for others and i think Rose's value is so low at the moment it can only go up... But can it be better than a possible rebound year for Jackson?

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7 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

How deep is this hypothetical league?  H2H or roto?

 

Gasol is almost a lock for top 100 value and probably will be 12/7 with 1 block on good efficiency.  

 

I think with Noel for the entire season it will put less pressure on Dirk and he has proved quite durable.  His minutes may be below 24, but with injury hopefully behind him, he could play without rest days for 3/4 of the season until they shut him down.  He could put up something like 16/6 with 1.5 3s on elite efficiency, making him top 75 during the games he plays.  If you're roto, you don't care that much if he gets shutdown if he is valuable for most of the season; whereas, in H2H he may be literally undraftable as it's likely he gets shutdown for fantasy playoffs.

 

Chandler will also be top 75 for the games he plays solely because he gets 10+ RPG while being one the few players who can be a FG% anchor without hurting your FT% or TO.  However, you run the same risk of being being undraftable in H2H.

 

Wade might have some low end value but he's had an unfriendly fantasy game for years due to high TO relative to production and being a SG who doesn't hit threes.  He might be worth a gamble in the final round or $1 in auction in 8 cat roto because you don't care about TO or games missed.


Korver might be worth a last round pick for 2.4 3PG on excellent efficiency, although there are so many players like that the only reason to pick him over others is as a pet pick.

 

Allen may also be worth a last round flyer for his nearly 2 SPG and that he may have some opportunity, although again there are better picks in standard leagues for steals, with more upside.

 

The others barely had above replacement level stats last year and aren't getting any younger.

 

Keep in mind, I'm not recommending these players, just expressing where they *might* be worth a flyer.  On most of these players, you're really scraping the bottom of the barrel in deep, redraft leagues.

 

 

All fair points. No hypotetical league - I consider most of these guys specialists who can fill up a hole on your team. Steals, rebounds, maybe even some scoring related cats. They could prove to be a safer bet at the end of a draft than gambling on a rookie or sleeper. For example, if you need rebounds, do you gamble on a Chriss or on a Chandler? Chances are, in H2H, yyou'd be better of riding a vet for the first few months and gamble on picking up a replacement later on. 

 

Mainly it's just the latter end of the topic title, I'm wondering about with these guys. Most of them go undrafted in 14+ team leagues, which sort of qualifies them as sleepers, too. 

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3 hours ago, JaydensGuys said:

I dont know why this hasnt been touched on yet with the possibility of half a season oh starting minutes and their draft positions BUT

 

Rose and Reggie jackson for round 10-11.. I also want to sneak Noel in around the same place but which PG would you guys expect to have the better stats? Rose may come out with a point to prove and lebron has a habbit of killing fantasy value (Love) and also boosting it for others and i think Rose's value is so low at the moment it can only go up... But can it be better than a possible rebound year for Jackson?

Keep an eye on the IT injury for roses value early on. If he misses most of the year i would have a good look at him. In saying that i was a big fan of jackson until his injuries and kept him longer than i would like to admit last season. He also doesnt exactly have a lot of competition at the PG spot at pistons with Ish and Galloway..

 

Sorry i have gone full circle here haha. I would base my decision on when IT will be back

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We're one month away from the first few games this season. Lots of leagues have been filled on Yahoo, quite some drafts have passed and rosters have been filled. 

 

So, interesting time to take a look at what players are still owned in less than 1/3rd of the leagues out there.

 

Guys who will have value this season, and should be owned in a higher percentage of leagues:

D. Demon 21% - Should start, post good reb and blk numbers with very nice percentages and low to. 

M. Teodosic 15% - I think PatBev will move to offguard, they're a nice duo. 

T. Prince 10% - Kawhi-lite.

D. Green 10% - He's not as good anymore, but he's not this bad.

J. Richardson 10% - Has to deal with Waiters, and Winslow playing more SF. Still, he's a potential 1/1/1 guy.

J. Hernangomez 3% - Wilson will start, Juancho is the future at SF.

D. Sabonis 2% - Thad young will start, Sabonis jr is the future at PF. 

W. Selden jr 0% - That team is so void of talent. Welden is actually a really nice player. Not a world beater, but servicable and should see a good amount of minutes at SG.

 

Guys to take a gamble on:

L. Markkanen 33% - Portis is a career backup, Zipser too, and plays SF as well. Markkanen also has a nice duo of big men at C (Lopez, Felicio) to play with.

J. Brown 23% - Was more impressive than Tatum to me this summer. Is growing, might be their best defender this side of Smart.

C. Parsons 11% - Was pretty ok beofre injuries. If he's unowned, why not stash him on IL?

D. Mitchell 7% - He's the future leader for the Jazz. He's that good.

B. Bogdanovic 5% - Finally got minutes late last season, only needs 20ish minutes to do some damage.

G. Robinson III 4% - My favorite breakout candidate this year. Did really well filling in for PG last season, way better defender than Bogs and good shooter. 

S. Johnson 3% - Isnt this bad. Should see more minutes. 

N. Vonleh 1% - Was pretty decent when Nurk came to town, still very young. Not great though.

D. Bembry 0% - Great source of steals if he gets PT. Not a shooter, so will have to surroung him with players with range.

 

Guys to plug statistical holes with:

T. Chandler 25% - Len still unsigned (so no prio), Alan Williams is a backup, Bender wont play too much C. Chandler is still valuable and should see close to 10 reb with good percentages. 

K. Korver 18% - 2.5 3's for free. Theere's more of those around, but most of them hurt your %'s or TO's...or are simply too expesnive. This one's free.

C. Miles 10% - See above. Should start in Toronto.

T. Mozgov 8% - Starter in Bk, should get close to 8 reb and a block, without hurting Ft and chipping in good FG.

T. Snell 4% - Almost 2 3's, and will get you some steals. Not much upside though. 

T. Allen 2% - Cheap source for top notch steals, will probably start out season at SF for NO.

A. Baynes 1% - Best reboundeer on team, should see decent amount of minutes. Doesnt need many of those to make some impact. Horford starting C announcement hurts somewhat.

A. Abrines 0% - Cheap source of 3s and is developing. One of few talented wingmen aside from PG3 in OKC. Uptick in minutes on the horizon.

 

Stop-gap players until they lose their minutes:

P. Mills 20% - Dont see them starting Murray yet. Leonard will handle the ball and Mills will have his annual months of value.

I. Smith 5% - Dont think Reggie is there long term, also injury concerns. Ish is a great source of AST with low TO. 

D. Valentine 2% - Came on last season. Not many more talented guys on the win in Chi while Lavine's out.

M. Harrell 1% - Griffin will miss a few games, Clippers don't have too much depth. Helps you in FG mostly, but chips in stl and blk sometimes. Not much of a rebounder.

H. Ellenson 1%  - Morris might miss a string of games, Harris could still come off bench. Ellenson didnt show much development but could have a chance here.

 

Guys to drop on your watchlist:

A. Zizic 2% - With the depth at C, Zizic could get some pt later on in the season. He's pretty good. 

P. Siakam 1% - If Raptors decide to move Ibaka to C (which some signs point to), Siakam could grab the starting PF position. 

G. Yabusele 1% - Celtics need rebounding. Yabu might be one of the best rebounders on that team with actual talent. 

S. Brown 0% - Could be another 2nd round gem for Bucks' scouts (Vaughn didnt happen...so far).

S. Thornwell 0% - Great defender on squad short on wingmen.

R. Vaughn 0% - Hasnt done much, but has talent and decent size. Still very young and has shown soooome flashes. 

C. Osman 0% - Euro talent coming to stacked team, but could be too handy not to play.

F. Korkmaz 0% - Euro talent coming to stacked team, but could be too handy not to play.

E. Moreland 0% - If Morris misses time, I can see Moreland finally get a chance at some pt. He's one of the best shotblockers in the league, but was too weak to play PF up til now.

A. Abrines 0% - Cheap source of 3s and is developing. One of few talented wingmen aside from PG3 in OKC. Uptick in minutes on the horizon.

 

Guys who could develop value later this year:

S. Labissiere 22% - One of the most woke sleepers. Like his chances, especiallyy with Zbo out for a while. Good pairing with WCS too.

J. Collins 11% - Way too much talent to be drafted so low. I like to compare him to Amare. Has a really nice midrange game, too. Creator of loads of posters this year. 

B. Marjanovic 6% - SVVG has been critical about Drummond who has seen little progression. Got some minutes late last season and did very well in just north of 20 minutes a game. 

I. Smith 5% - Dont think Reggie is there long term, also injury concerns. Ish is a great source of AST with low TO. 

A. Williams 5% - Resigned over Len. Not too hefty a contract, but Phoenix loves him. One of best rebounders in league and if Pho fall out of PO contention, I can see him get bulk of minutes. Chandler will probably be traded by that time.

J. Allen 2% - Not a great shotblocker, unlike what you'd expect from a guy with his wingspan. Still, a good talent to get for free with not too much competition for minutes.

C. Swanigan 2% - Most talented PF on Portland roster. 

L. Kennard 2% - One of the better shooters in the league, book it. 
B. Adebayo 2% - Olynyk is a betteer fit next to Hassan, but boy, did Bam show out in summer. Game is way more developed than what many expected. 

C. Felicio 2% - Good rebounder, decent defender, not much of a shotblocker. Gets some steals. Really could be the next Nene.

O. Anunoby 1% - Love his game. Should be future SF of the Raps with much needed wing defense.

C. Diallo 1% - AD injury away from good pts/reb combo. 

T. Luwawu-Cabarrot 1% - Really came along late last year. Still very raw, but has all the tools to be a great fantasy playeer in the future. 

D. Davis 0% - If Gasol is traded, or if any injury happens to their frontcourrt, assuming Green is resigned, Davis could be a great source of blocks. Does he do anything else? Nope. 

 

Only for deep-deep leagues:

L. Nance jr. 8% - Doesnt need many minutes to drop all kinds of nice stats.

D. Bertans 1% - Steady playeer, not much of a rebounder, but could be sneaky source of 3pt for a pf.
J. Lauvergne 1% - Basically Dedmon's replacement with an aging Gasol. Typical Pop player, and could improve. Started out great with Denver two years ago.










 

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1 hour ago, IronFlag said:

Into the deeper rounds and I need a SF. 

 

Ingles, Marvin Williams, Hood and Richardson, Aminu all available...

 

Are we expecting a big jump for ingles this year? Can Williams provide boards and 1/1/1 this year?

I'd go Ingles, Marvin, Hood, Richardson, Aminu (depending on what stats you need, league settings etc).

 

Expecting a small jump for Ingles, not too uch, but he was already pretty good last year. Thing with Hood's expected jump is that he won't all of sudden pour in steals and assists. He'll score more, turn the ball over a bit more and probably will shoot a lower FG%. 

 

Marv, I don't see putting in a better season than last year. D12 will gobble up some of his rebounds, MKG being back will take away some time, Monk might eat into his 3pt attempts somewhat. Will still be somewhat valuable, though. Richardson I like a lot, but he's got a few swingmen on that team he'll have to deal with. Could be a 1/1/1 guy, though and with some decent PT, he'd be a better option than Marv. Don't like Aimnu much. He wont see as many minutes at PF with Noah coming on and the Blazers adding a few big men. Harkless is still their SF too. 

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17 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I'd go Ingles, Marvin, Hood, Richardson, Aminu (depending on what stats you need, league settings etc).

 

Expecting a small jump for Ingles, not too uch, but he was already pretty good last year. Thing with Hood's expected jump is that he won't all of sudden pour in steals and assists. He'll score more, turn the ball over a bit more and probably will shoot a lower FG%. 

 

Marv, I don't see putting in a better season than last year. D12 will gobble up some of his rebounds, MKG being back will take away some time, Monk might eat into his 3pt attempts somewhat. Will still be somewhat valuable, though. Richardson I like a lot, but he's got a few swingmen on that team he'll have to deal with. Could be a 1/1/1 guy, though and with some decent PT, he'd be a better option than Marv. Don't like Aimnu much. He wont see as many minutes at PF with Noah coming on and the Blazers adding a few big men. Harkless is still their SF too. 

 

I'll have to disagree about the assists part. I mentioned this in the Hood thread.

 

When he broke out two seasons ago he had 2.7 assists in 32 mpg next to a in and out of the lineup due to injury Burks and Hayward and his high usage, a shoot first ask questions later Trey Burke, another score first type in Kanter, and Favors. I watched a lot of Jazz games that year 'cause I had him on my roster, and the Jazz commentators regularly said he was their second best pick and roll action guy after Hayward, and you could see it. He had very nice chemistry with Gobert and made a lot of solid passes as Gobert rolled. The reason why I think he can easily float between 3-4 apg this year is because they can't primarily have Rubio running pick and roll, he can't keep the defense honest with his offense because they'll sag below the pick. You won't get that with Hood, and I think they'll legitimately want to see if a healthy Hood has a chance to be a solid scorer for them (Joe Johnson is good in the PnR as well but he's not getting any younger, as is Ingles).

 

I think you'll see a lot of staggering with different guys playing the high screen action, that's my take. They were already doing that with Hayward in the lineup last year and simply added too many weapons which made Hood more of a spot-up shooter. 
 

He's a very nice under-the-radar pick this year, but my main concern with both he and Favors is the injuries. I would take them if I was guaranteed they were going to last the majority of the season, but then again so would most people.

 

It'll also be interesting to see how Mitchell fits into the whole equation. He reminds me of a mix between Norman Powell and Wes Matthews.

 

With their dearth of scoring, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Hood scores anywhere between 16-18 ppg with around 3-4 boards 3-4 assists, 1 steal. 

 

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by his passing ability. 

 

Hood can be a tremendous scorer, his issue is the types of shots he takes, he gets really high elevation and arc on his jumpers but it causes him to believe he can shoot over anybody so he'll opt for extremely difficult off-balance fadeaways with guys draped all over him. 

 

I've always said this prior to ever seeing this video, but his offense (lack thereof) is why we'll see multiple pick and roll guys. Like Rondo, they hurt you more than they help you offensively because the defense sagging is a major issue against any PG. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, IronFlag said:

Interesting discussion.

 

I note that BBM has Taurien Prince in the same "tier" as Ingles interestingly enough. 

 

Josh has that Aussie love for Jinglin' Joe.

 

In all seriousness, I don't think there's that much separating them.  Prince has more of an opportunity to produce offensively, but Ingles will be more efficient.  Both should provide solid stocks though, just don't reach for them.  I would personally not take either before pick 100.

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1 minute ago, azeri98 said:

What about Nurkic for the trail blazers? he had good numbers when he got traded there.

I think the cat's out the bag on him. So not really a sleeper. Also a strange case, with the low FG, high TO combo for a center. 

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On 9/13/2017 at 8:17 AM, PuzzBeterson said:

B. Marjanovic 6% - SVVG has been critical about Drummond who has seen little progression. Got some minutes late last season and did very well in just north of 20 minutes a game.

 

Why do you categorize Boban as a later-in-the-season guy? He's second on the depth chart as is. He only needs 20 minutes to give us 15/10 with a block and half a steal, along with good percentages and low turnovers.

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35 minutes ago, Meadowlark said:

 

Why do you categorize Boban as a later-in-the-season guy? He's second on the depth chart as is. He only needs 20 minutes to give us 15/10 with a block and half a steal, along with good percentages and low turnovers.

Mainky because there were some rumours of Drummond being available in a trade.

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33 minutes ago, dboong said:

I have been tossing up between dedmon boban and thon as a late rounder and keep falling back to boban because he doesn't need minutes to be productive.. he is a monster and I can't wait to see what he can do with 30 minutes 

 

1. Take end of March/April stats with a grain of salt as I've mentioned several times, especially the last few games.

 

2. Sure he's been a per-minute monster, but so have other guys in the past who didn't pan out at all once they were given a larger role. 

 

3. I like Boban, he's got very good hands and gets deep post position where guys can't move him off the block because of his sheer size, and he's very good at finishing, also incredible how good he is at FT% given the size of his hands. All that being said, Boban's issue is that once you run a quick lineup on the floor he really struggles because he lugs up and down because of his sheer size. This happened in the Slovenia game where they ran him off the court and he couldn't keep up with the pace, now imagine that this is the case in most NBA games where slow paced half court offensive sets are diminishing by the year. Guys like Boban are serviceable in limited minutes, but there will be games where Stan will practically be unable to play him due to the pace of the other team. 

 

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I love Boban and have watched a lot of his highlights but I think the hype train is starting to go off the rails with this one.  I watched a 10 min YouTube video describing how Boban will be the GOAt center, the video made some salient points about his PER.  But it fails to mention that there have been per minute stars before who racked up elite stats in garbage time.  Reastically Boban is almost 30 with little room for growth.  His minutes will always be capped because his body probably can't handle more than 25 minutes per game.  He's a perfect compliment to Drummond because it's tough to play Drummond when the opposition is playing hack a Drummond, but I don't think he will displace him in the starting lineup.  

 

He's the tallest player in the NBA and great at getting into position where he can just shoot over any defender. His shooting range extends to 15 feet plus which means he's a great FT shooter.  Sometimes he will get credited for a block because a player threw the ball into his outstretched hands.  But he's not a shot blocker in the traditional sense, the way say Turner is.  His nearest comp is probably Enes Kanter.  Kanter is almost unstoppable offensively given his combination of size, speed, and shooting ability.  He's a great finisher at the rim and you can't foul him because he shoots nearly 80% from the line.   Problem is his defense is so bad he just gives it right back on the defensive end.  He's actually solid off the bench because if you put him in when you're ahead he will score enough to keep you ahead,  but his terrible defense almost always cancels out his offense.  So now just take everything I said and apply it to Boban except that Boban might be slightly better on offense and is more of a fan favorite. 

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I think the Boban hype is out of control. There are 48 minutes to be played at center. Drummond and Boban won't share the court together because they can only play center. Drummond plays 30mpg (could go up a bit back to 33ish range). That leaves 18 minutes at center. Leuer and Tolliver will likely combine for a few back up center minutes. How many minutes does that leave for Boban? Maybe 15 if we're optimistic? And I'm sure there will be games where he simply won't see the floor, games against GSW, Houston, Cleveland especially because they stretch bigs out.

 

I get Boban is a per minute monster. But IMO, the minutes won't be there. And he won't play every game. And if Drummond's minutes go back up, there's even less time for Boban to see the floor.

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3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

He's the tallest player in the NBA and great at getting into position where he can just shoot over any defender. His shooting range extends to 15 feet plus which means he's a great FT shooter.  Sometimes he will get credited for a block because a player threw the ball into his outstretched hands.  But he's not a shot blocker in the traditional sense, the way say Turner is.  His nearest comp is probably Enes Kanter.  Kanter is almost unstoppable offensively given his combination of size, speed, and shooting ability.  He's a great finisher at the rim and you can't foul him because he shoots nearly 80% from the line.   Problem is his defense is so bad he just gives it right back on the defensive end.  He's actually solid off the bench because if you put him in when you're ahead he will score enough to keep you ahead,  but his terrible defense almost always cancels out his offense.  So now just take everything I said and apply it to Boban except that Boban might be slightly better on offense and is more of a fan favorite. 

 

The Kanter comp is decent for some of the reasons you listed, however I would argue that Kanter has one of the lowest BBIQ's in the league (one reason he is a turnover machine and has never average even 1 assist per game), whereas Boban is actually quite smart on the court, and is a very capable passer.  He has dropped some dimes in Euroleague.  BBIQ helps you stay on the court, since all the small things add up, and SVG is a smart coach who seems to value these type of decisions, perhaps more than some others (I dont have anything to back this statement up besides seeing him get real mad at bonehead plays).

 

With that said, I also agree the "hype train" may be getting out of control.  In our summer RW roto mock, I picked him with my last pick (and I do believe user BoogieNights actually criticized the pick) - I think that is where you will realistically see good returns, or at least he is a good risk to take.  Picking him much earlier is just not a good idea since his role is not solidified.  If Drummond gets traded, that would change and I could see taking him as early as 7th or 8th round.

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50 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

The Kanter comp is decent for some of the reasons you listed, however I would argue that Kanter has one of the lowest BBIQ's in the league (one reason he is a turnover machine and has never average even 1 assist per game), whereas Boban is actually quite smart on the court, and is a very capable passer.  He has dropped some dimes in Euroleague.  BBIQ helps you stay on the court, since all the small things add up, and SVG is a smart coach who seems to value these type of decisions, perhaps more than some others (I dont have anything to back this statement up besides seeing him get real mad at bonehead plays).

 

With that said, I also agree the "hype train" may be getting out of control.  In our summer RW roto mock, I picked him with my last pick (and I do believe user BoogieNights actually criticized the pick) - I think that is where you will realistically see good returns, or at least he is a good risk to take.  Picking him much earlier is just not a good idea since his role is not solidified.  If Drummond gets traded, that would change and I could see taking him as early as 7th or 8th round.

I have Boban in 2 leagues already.  I LOVE the guy.  I agree his basketball IQ is high.  He's one of the most skilled big men we've seen in a while, combined with being the tallest player in the NBA.  Just saying we should be realistic.  Sometimes an expert calls a guy a sleeper and everyone picks up on it.  Then they call him a sleeper and the words spreads.  All of a sudden the guy is an All-Star.  He and Jamal Murray are two players I would call "sleepers" but the hype has become so strong that they become overrated.

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Is there a hype train? I haven't seen much about him on the forum here. I dropped Brandon Knight to grab Boban, so I don't think I lost too much in the exchange.

 

I don't quite buy the line of thinking that says his per-minute numbers are good but won't translate into a larger role, since the numbers he has produced when he has played more minutes have been pretty well in line.

 

The comparison to Kanter is interesting to me because I have them both in dynasty, though I don't agree that Boban's defense is that bad. Kanter kind of has that Bargnani thing where he's not confident and disciplined enough to read the play and get into position, and it's really hard to see him getting past that. Boban's defensive shortcomings are more to do with physical limitations, and Stan Van has already talked about designing the defense to work better with Boban's strengths and weaknesses. But anyway, I have them both. There's a reasonable chance that, at some point early this season, an interesting FA will turn up on the waiver wire, and I'll have to decide which of the two to drop. Would you sooner lose Boban's upside or Kanter's predictable late-round production?

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