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Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


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9 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

A few sleepers I like.  I'll be lazy though and not write up my rationale. 

 

Delon Wright

Norman Powell 

Juancho 

Jonathan Isaac 

Nik Stauskas 

Bembry

Daniel Valentine 

Glenn Robinson III

Justise Winslow

Bogdan Bodganovic

Dante Exum

 

What about Dakari Johnson or Jerami Grant? They should get more minutes after the Kanter trade.

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1 hour ago, bball961 said:

 

What about Dakari Johnson or Jerami Grant? They should get more minutes after the Kanter trade.

 

Kanter was only playing 20 mins and Anthony will play much more than that. Normally you can say that there will be around 16 mins available at the backup C but I mostly see Patterson or Collison filling these minutes and not Johnson. Grant should get around 20, but I say that's the max he can get.

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8 hours ago, chaiway said:

Are you expecting Mudiay to backup Murray at the 1 w/ Nelson out of the rotation or to get traded to a different situation?

 

 

I expect a (future) three guard rotation of

 

Murray/Mudiay

Harris/Murray

 

 

Mudiay will be fine, he's still only 21. Showed some improvement after the break in limited time. Had some strong outings in April when the Nuggets were fighting for a playoff spot. Definitely worth a grab in dynasty leagues. Needs a strong training camp and preseason to warrant attention in re-draft leagues.

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8 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Mudiay is a great value pick if you need to lose your weekly FG% and TOs.

In a small sample size he improved greatly at the end of last season.  Combine that with the work he's put in this summer in Denver and the fact that it is a make or break season I think he's going to blow his ADP out of the water.  The key for him is the lineups he plays with.  He needs shooters around him - no true pass first point guard would ever thrive beside "black hole" Barton, Faried, and pretty much everyone else on the roster that clogs the paint and doesn't space the floor.  Denver boasted the best ORTG when Mudiay and Jokic player together.

 

I know it was a friendly game but Mudiay killed it in the Africa game.

 

Basically he's been working with the Denver coaching staff all summer and really been putting the time in.  

 

While I understand that glib, dismissive statements get laughs and all that I'm pretty sure this is a sleeper thread and he certainly fits the bill for a last round swing for the fences pick - Not many people will be drafting him.  Plus if players make that leap from bust to relevance its usually in their theirs year I find.

Edited by Gorgeous George
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1 hour ago, Gorgeous George said:

In a small sample size he improved greatly at the end of last season.  Combine that with the work he's put in this summer in Denver and the fact that it is a make or break season I think he's going to blow his ADP out of the water.  The key for him is the lineups he plays with.  He needs shooters around him - no true pass first point guard would ever thrive beside "black hole" Barton, Faried, and pretty much everyone else on the roster that clogs the paint and doesn't space the floor.  Denver boasted the best ORTG when Mudiay and Jokic player together.

 

I know it was a friendly game but Mudiay killed it in the Africa game.

 

Basically he's been working with the Denver coaching staff all summer and really been putting the time in.  

 

While I understand that glib, dismissive statements get laughs and all that I'm pretty sure this is a sleeper thread and he certainly fits the bill for a last round swing for the fences pick - Not many people will be drafting him.  Plus if players make that leap from bust to relevance its usually in their theirs year I find.

 

What do you see as best case scenario for him in terms of both minutes and production? I think you make an interesting case

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Best case scenario 27-30 minutes where  he plays half his time beside Murray and half beside Harris and about 15 minutes with Jokic.  Malone is a tough coach to predict.

 

Maybe .440 .860 1.8 threes, 14 points, 4rb, 7 assist 2.8 turnover 1 steal. 

 

It's predicated more on who he is playing with than anything - that will help him be successful.  Malone made some positive quotes about him this summer. 

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the efficiency is the big question but getting 7 assists or even 5 assists is really tough and would definitely be worth a swing. 

He did average 45.1% / 82.6% in the final month of last season but that's with only 0.8 3s, 3.6 Assts and only an 8 game sample size.

I did ask for a best case but I tend to agree that he is intriguing but expect the FG%/3s/Assts to be lower unless he overtakes Murray as the starter

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It is too early to write off Mudiay.  However, I think his time in Denver is coming to an end. I think his career might have the same trajectory as Brandon Jennings.  A very good athlete who provides short spurts that make you think he could be special but ends up as a career backup due to fundamental flaws in his game.

 

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ooof wow those projections for Mudiay are EXTREMELY generous.

 

I don't care about coach quotes, I don't care about "how much work they put in in the summer", they all say this every year - even the worst scrubs in the league. It doesn't mean they will suddenly come in and dominate - let alone put up the line you predicted above ^. 

 

He's easily on my DND list, and he will remain there until he proves he can do otherwise. Will not take a late round flier, do not pass go. Mudiay is pretty much a trade target for Denver to a team that needs some PG or backup PG play or hopes to get something out of him. He hurts as much as he helps (and hurts a lot more). I think Murray gets full dibs on PG play with Harris getting full dibs on SG with Barton backing him up at the SG / SF spot. 

 

Mudiay will get backup duties if he outplays Jameer Nelson at training camp/preseason, which is pretty sad considering even that is a long shot at this point. Don't forget Malone has an affinity toward playing Nelson.

 

Teams talk up their players all the time because they're assets to the team, you don't down-play your talent. 

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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14 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

Best case scenario 27-30 minutes where  he plays half his time beside Murray and half beside Harris and about 15 minutes with Jokic.  Malone is a tough coach to predict.

 

Maybe .440 .860 1.8 threes, 14 points, 4rb, 7 assist 2.8 turnover 1 steal. 

 

It's predicated more on who he is playing with than anything - that will help him be successful.  Malone made some positive quotes about him this summer. 

That's Jrue Holiday, not Mudiay. 

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21 years old...  apparently zero room for improvement.  Nash didn't show much until his 5th year.  Billups waited until year 5 also.  

 

I listed best case scenario - a lot of stars have to align for that to happen.

 

Anyway, carry on.  I was under the impression this thread was for sleepers.  Mudiay hit the snooze button last year and battled injuries but has shown improvement across the board especially shot mechanics.  I for one hope his summer work can carry in to the season.  As mentioned I see him as a swing for the fences pick, not the kind you build your team around.

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Thing with Mudiay is - he never has shown much indication of being a very good PG or fantasy player. That 5-7 game stretch late last season is no indication. Nash always was a good passer, and at that time even more, a very good shooter, he just never earned the chance to produce like he did in D'Antoni's system. With Billups - his advanced and per 36 minutes stats have been almost the same over the course of his career. He just landed in a perfect situation in Detroit. 

 

Mudiay's numbers have been pretty identical over the course of his career as well. And they haven't been very good. I can see the Brandon Jennings comparison, but I think he's a bit worse right now than Jennings was at that stage (Jennings had more ast, less to, better defense, better three point shooter). If Jennings' career is an indication, I don't think many teams consider Mudiay a starting point guard. Guys who's output compare most closely to Mudiay at the same age and stage of their career would be players such as Mateen Cleaves and Erick Barkley, they just didn't get as many minutes as Mudiay got. 

 

However, Mudiay has a chance to improve. He just doesn't have a D'Antoni around (I prefer Michael Malone as a coach...and he's not really a Mudiay type). 

 

Wouldn't bet on him. 

Edited by PuzzBeterson
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3 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

21 years old...  apparently zero room for improvement.  Nash didn't show much until his 5th year.  Billups waited until year 5 also.  

 

I listed best case scenario - a lot of stars have to align for that to happen.

 

Anyway, carry on.  I was under the impression this thread was for sleepers.  Mudiay hit the snooze button last year and battled injuries but has shown improvement across the board especially shot mechanics.  I for one hope his summer work can carry in to the season.  As mentioned I see him as a swing for the fences pick, not the kind you build your team around.

 

I have a hard time seeing a guy who's bad in every single aspect of the game suddenly reaching Jrue Holiday-like level.

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46 minutes ago, Guilhermeneves said:

 

I have a hard time seeing a guy who's bad in every single aspect of the game suddenly reaching Jrue Holiday-like level.

Would you ever expect a 22 year old prospect putting up per36 numbers of 11 points on .404 fg% .182 from 3 to reach Jimmy Butler's numbers?

 

Maybe a 21 year old who was thrown in the fire as a 19 year old and deemed raw when drafted is getting better?

 

Maybe he is a lost cause?  I have no problem gambling a pick in the last few rounds on him.

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14 minutes ago, Gorgeous George said:

Would you ever expect a 22 year old prospect putting up per36 numbers of 11 points on .404 fg% .182 from 3 to reach Jimmy Butler's numbers?

 

Maybe a 21 year old who was thrown in the fire as a 19 year old and deemed raw when drafted is getting better?

 

Maybe he is a lost cause?  I have no problem gambling a pick in the last few rounds on him.

Never bet on outliers to repeat.

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The things you guys are saying aren't mutually exclusive.  Mike Gallagher said it best when he said he would rather take a player with 90% of being dropped to the waiver wire and a 10% chance of being top 50 than a player certain to be barely above WW replacement level.  Mudiay's FG/To are garbage, but the usage might be there.  If you are already punting FG/To might as well roll the dice with a last round pick.   Their backcourt is still up in the air.  I would say there's a 90% Mudiay gets dropped but he has upside and anyone else you picked there is a drop candidate too.  There's literally no cost to picking him the last round.  

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