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Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


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8 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

The things you guys are saying aren't mutually exclusive.  Mike Gallagher said it best when he said he would rather take a player with 90% of being dropped to the waiver wire and a 10% chance of being top 50 than a player certain to be barely above WW replacement level.  Mudiay's FG/To are garbage, but the usage might be there.  If you are already punting FG/To might as well roll the dice with a last round pick.   Their backcourt is still up in the air.  I would say there's a 90% Mudiay gets dropped but he has upside and anyone else you picked there is a drop candidate too.  There's literally no cost to picking him the last round.  

 

That's somewhat accurate (I believe more so in theory than in practice), except the issue is when the player still has enough name value, and enough usage/minutes that you fear dropping him incase he turns it around.. and this happens with many players regardless of the round you take them. You end up hanging on for far longer than you should in hopes he gets it together, and then he's hurting you mightily by losing you weeks. It happened to me with Stanley Johnson his rookie season, I got him in the 10th round or so and I just couldn't let go for half the year because I saw his potential talent, it completely destroyed me. 

 

Where you're correct is that there is no damage done in terms of dropping the player, the question is when are people willing to let go.

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I have no issue burning a last round pick on Mudiay if he fits your build or you are using the roster spot to trade in the case the player outperforms. Nelson could get hurt. Nuggets will play with decent pace. There are worse things then being a starting PG on a talented team. And if it doesn't work then you move on and it didn't cost you much of anything. Mudiay was an elite athlete and he is still learning basketball skills. Blake Griffin has worked really, really hard on his shooting and now he is still a great player as his elite athleticism fades with age and injury. Payton is another player that is in that same boat. Dwight Howard is an example of someone that never worked at his skills and now that his athleticism has faded he is exposed. Time will tell with Mudiay. 

 

My player to avoid is Embiid. It is madness to draft him in the first 3 rounds and I say that as a Sixers and Embiid fan. He is an awesome talent, but you need to be on the court. The "what if he stays healthy" mindless role of the dice is best used later in the draft.  I think the great majority of people that take him early in the draft will look back at season's end and say that drafting Embiid in the 3rd round wasn't the reason you won your league (if you did), but drafting him in the 3rd round was the reason you lost your league. 

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maybe this can help

 

Media day started earlier today, here are some of the more notable headlines:
-Despite not yet being cleared for 5-on-5 work, Joel Embiid is expected to be ready for the regular season
-Ben Simmons isn't expected to have any restrictions
-Isaiah Thomas is expected to return by January, Derrick Rose will begin the season as the starting PG
-Entering training camp, the PG spot is the only position battle in Denver
-The Mavericks are expected to start Dennis Smith Jr (PG), Harrison Barnes (PF) and Dirk Nowitzki (C); the other two spots are up for grabs, meaning Nerlens Noel is coming off the bench
-Zach LaVine won't be ready for opening night and might not return until December/January
-Jabari Parker plans to return by February
-Aside from C (Robin Lopez), every starting spot in Chicago is up for grabs
-Kenneth Faried declared he is a starter in this league and has essentially demanded a trade given he will not be usurping Paul Millsap's role

 

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7 minutes ago, hoopking said:

maybe this can help

 

Media day started earlier today, here are some of the more notable headlines:
-Despite not yet being cleared for 5-on-5 work, Joel Embiid is expected to be ready for the regular season
-Ben Simmons isn't expected to have any restrictions
-Isaiah Thomas is expected to return by January, Derrick Rose will begin the season as the starting PG
-Entering training camp, the PG spot is the only position battle in Denver
-The Mavericks are expected to start Dennis Smith Jr (PG), Harrison Barnes (PF) and Dirk Nowitzki (C); the other two spots are up for grabs, meaning Nerlens Noel is coming off the bench
-Zach LaVine won't be ready for opening night and might not return until December/January
-Jabari Parker plans to return by February
-Aside from C (Robin Lopez), every starting spot in Chicago is up for grabs
-Kenneth Faried declared he is a starter in this league and has essentially demanded a trade given he will not be usurping Paul Millsap's role

 

Embiid also admitted for the first time that he won't be playing in all 82 games. 

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2 hours ago, jay14bay said:

Dirk starting at C... so then every opposing C is in line for a career rebounding night? 

 

Not really, Noel is only a slightly better overall rebounder than Dirk has been career wise, and Dirk has been a much better defensive rebounder than Noel has been over his career since moving to C last season. Taking into account things such as youth, capabilities on offense, experience etc, I can see an argument for both. But theres not much difference rebounding-wise for opponents.

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27 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Not really, Noel is only a slightly better overall rebounder than Dirk has been career wise, and Dirk has been a much better defensive rebounder than Noel has been over his career since moving to C last season. Taking into account things such as youth, capabilities on offense, experience etc, I can see an argument for both. But theres not much difference rebounding-wise for opponents.

 

Thats fine but he hasn't traditionally played center. He's a PF.. and I wasn't talking about Noel. Maybe my point wasn't clear but I was trying to say that a front line of Barnes and Dirk might struggle defensively. Of course Harry B is capable of locking up and guarding players bigger than himself but Dirk is old and slow and as a front line tandem they don't seem very formidable. 

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Ah clear, thought you wanted to make a case for Noel because of rebounding. Most opposing centers did reasonably well against Dallas last year. Some, like Drummond produced a bit worse. Dont think most of them care much about their frontcourt indeed. Finney-Smirh could maybe alleviate things a bit at SF.

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3 hours ago, hoopking said:

maybe this can help

 

Media day started earlier today, here are some of the more notable headlines:
-Despite not yet being cleared for 5-on-5 work, Joel Embiid is expected to be ready for the regular season
-Ben Simmons isn't expected to have any restrictions
-Isaiah Thomas is expected to return by January, Derrick Rose will begin the season as the starting PG
-Entering training camp, the PG spot is the only position battle in Denver
-The Mavericks are expected to start Dennis Smith Jr (PG), Harrison Barnes (PF) and Dirk Nowitzki (C); the other two spots are up for grabs, meaning Nerlens Noel is coming off the bench
-Zach LaVine won't be ready for opening night and might not return until December/January
-Jabari Parker plans to return by February
-Aside from C (Robin Lopez), every starting spot in Chicago is up for grabs
-Kenneth Faried declared he is a starter in this league and has essentially demanded a trade given he will not be usurping Paul Millsap's role

 


Youre either the admin of the NBA trade info and rumours Facebook page or you copy and pasted this directly from there hahah ;)

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8 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Also the timing for Faried to demand a trade is less than perfect. 

I'm guessing he voiced his stance to management privately during the offseason and now that nothing has happened he is trying to force the issue publicly. We are talking about Kenneth Faried though and the Nuggets have Trey Lyles, Plumlee, and Hernangomez so I would guess they aren't tripping.  No one wants that contract tied to a player with limited skills outside of athleticism (if you consider that a skill) except for....China I guess.   

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2 hours ago, rob0403 said:

 

Any NBA team really want Faried at this point? Sounds like he is only happy as a starter.

Maybe Detroit, Milwaukee, Washington and OKC (if melo and PG play the wings along with Westbrook at PG there should be a TON of offensive rebounds available :P ).

Edited by Gorgeous George
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How about Patty Mills? Going late in drafts, Parker is out for at least another month and he can put up sneaky 3's & assists in addition to points and steals here there. 

Seems inconsistent but had some big games last year while only averaging 22 minutes (might average 26-30 this year):

4 x 20 point games

24 x 5+ assist games (9 x 7+)

44 x 2+ 3's games (10 x 4+)

 

definitely better than a standard 3 point streamer. Also got paid this summer to the tune of 4 years / $50M

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44 minutes ago, chaiway said:

How about Patty Mills? Going late in drafts, Parker is out for at least another month and he can put up sneaky 3's & assists in addition to points and steals here there. 

Seems inconsistent but had some big games last year while only averaging 22 minutes (might average 26-30 this year):

4 x 20 point games

24 x 5+ assist games (9 x 7+)

44 x 2+ 3's games (10 x 4+)

 

definitely better than a standard 3 point streamer. Also got paid this summer to the tune of 4 years / $50M

I thought about Patty, but I don't know how much more he has to his game. I think Murray is a little more intriguing if he can run away with the job early in the year. Once Tony gets back it is going to be a bit of a mess. 

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12 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I thought about Patty, but I don't know how much more he has to his game. I think Murray is a little more intriguing if he can run away with the job early in the year. Once Tony gets back it is going to be a bit of a mess. 

 

I don't think his game will necessarily develop just a more consistent role and hopefully more consistent performances. Tony wasn't looking so great even pre-injury

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Just now, chaiway said:

 

I don't think his game will necessarily develop just a more consistent role and hopefully more consistent performances. Tony wasn't looking so great even pre-injury

There is definitely a gap that needs to be filled. I agree about Tony declining, but Pop is going to play him in the Manu role at the minimum. 

I just think Murray has the ability to be more dynamic than Patty. Murray can touch a lot of cats more significantly, or be a bust. Patty just won't hurt you anywhere and is solid. Either way, it is a spot to target for short term benefit and possibly season long if Tony comes back as a shell of himself, which was already a shell of his prime self. 

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Patty is actually one of the best per-minute guys. The problem is - as always - is that he players for Pops. Spurs is a wasteland, I don't draft any players from there and always avoid that situation. I will not be touching Rudy Gay or Gasol this year for the same reason. Gasol's stats are nice and he's a decent value guy, but having a guy miss 20+ games a year isn't intriguing. If Gay was healthy then I could see him playing a lot of minutes at various spots, but not considering he's coming back from injury.

 

I feel like the Spurs have nice players with potential, but they need other teams to flourish (but those other teams wont have the system the Spurs do they won't look as good), some of those include Kyle Anderson (I think he has a prime Diaw game to him), David Bertans (extremely skilled euro Big), and Dejounte Murray. Heck, this team was even the first one to showcase Boban.

 

Patty Mills per 36 last season:

 

15.6 /  3 / 5 .7 / 1.3 on 44% FG, 82% FT and 3 3's per game. 

 

Those are delightful stats, but you know that he won't get enough minutes - and I believe he could achieve these numbers (unlike most Per 36 cases) if he was the regular 30 mpg starter.. it's too bad. 

Edited by Lifschitz
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59 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

Patty is actually one of the best per-minute guys. The problem is - as always - is that he players for Pops. Spurs is a wasteland, I don't draft any players from there and always avoid that situation. I will not be touching Rudy Gay or Gasol this year for the same reason. Gasol's stats are nice and he's a decent value guy, but having a guy miss 20+ games a year isn't intriguing. If Gay was healthy then I could see him playing a lot of minutes at various spots, but not considering he's coming back from injury.

 

I feel like the Spurs have nice players with potential, but they need other teams to flourish (but those other teams wont have the system the Spurs do they won't look as good), some of those include Kyle Anderson (I think he has a prime Diaw game to him), David Bertans (extremely skilled euro Big), and Dejounte Murray. Heck, this team was even the first one to showcase Boban.

 

Patty Mills per 36 last season:

 

15.6 /  3 / 5 .7 / 1.3 on 44% FG, 82% FT and 3 3's per game. 

 

Those are delightful stats, but you know that he won't get enough minutes - and I believe he could achieve these numbers (unlike most Per 36 cases) if he was the regular 30 mpg starter.. it's too bad. 

 

I agree with what you are saying (not expecting regular 30mpg) and Pop does like to spread the minutes around and does have options. If you look at the Spurs guard rotation (min avgs from last year)-

PG - Murray* (12min), Mills (22min), Forbes(11min), White(Rookie), Parker (24 min)

SG - Green (24min), Ginnobili(18min) 

 

I see some of the PG's playing together in a smaller lineup with Patty as the SG on offense. 

Ginnobili is a year older, Danny Green doesn't produce much offense, Gay will be limited out of the gate... who's going to score on this team other than Kawhi and LA? Especially from the 3 point line. Patty was at 41.4% last year from 3.

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Already had 2 drafts this year and I'm kind of kicking myself not being able to grab Mirotic so far. I have a feeling he is going to have a big year with that wasteland of the team. Ugly shooting but will most probably score in the mid to high teens with 2 threes and flirt with a 1/1/1. I will definitely target him in the 110 range on my next one. 

 

Another one is Favors. Last year seems to be an anomaly and could potentially be a solid ROI if you can grab him in the 7th or later. 

 

Lastly I haven't yet to draft John Collins and Parsons and I'm looking to grab both as well. I chose Holmes over Collins in a recent draft and kind of regretting it as well.  

 

Mirotic/Favors/Collins/Parsons - what do you all think of these guys? 

 

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18 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

Already had 2 drafts this year and I'm kind of kicking myself not being able to grab Mirotic so far. I have a feeling he is going to have a big year with that wasteland of the team. Ugly shooting but will most probably score in the mid to high teens with 2 threes and flirt with a 1/1/1. I will definitely target him in the 110 range on my next one. 

 

Another one is Favors. Last year seems to be an anomaly and could potentially be a solid ROI if you can grab him in the 7th or later. 

 

Lastly I haven't yet to draft John Collins and Parsons and I'm looking to grab both as well. I chose Holmes over Collins in a recent draft and kind of regretting it as well.  

 

Mirotic/Favors/Collins/Parsons - what do you all think of these guys? 

 

They all seem to be inexpensive low-risk, high-ish reward players. Depending on your league Collins could go undrafted making him potentially great for his price tag 

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43 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

Already had 2 drafts this year and I'm kind of kicking myself not being able to grab Mirotic so far. I have a feeling he is going to have a big year with that wasteland of the team. Ugly shooting but will most probably score in the mid to high teens with 2 threes and flirt with a 1/1/1. I will definitely target him in the 110 range on my next one. 

 

Another one is Favors. Last year seems to be an anomaly and could potentially be a solid ROI if you can grab him in the 7th or later. 

 

Lastly I haven't yet to draft John Collins and Parsons and I'm looking to grab both as well. I chose Holmes over Collins in a recent draft and kind of regretting it as well.  

 

Mirotic/Favors/Collins/Parsons - what do you all think of these guys? 

 

What qualifies as ugly shooting?  Mirotic shot 41/77 last season on low volume.  Not good but Ariza/Roco shot worse and they are similar players aside from the steals.  That's essentially how I view Mirotic.  14/7 with 2/1/1.  Upside for more.  I'm a strong buyer.  I have him in a couple of leagues already.

 

Favors-same.  I know there are people who think his injuries are chronic, but I've seen no evidence to support that.  He's put up top 50 value before.  This season may present his greatest opportunity.  He's the best midrange scorer on the Jazz and has Rubio/Ingles passing to him.  Hood's role is likely to expand but I don't see him averaging over 20PPG.  So if you assume Rubio, Gobert, and Ingles all have more usage they will average around 46/47 points combined.  Hood should be good for 18/19.  That's 65 ppg between the four of them.  That easily leaves room for 20 ppg for Favors, not saying he will hit that number, but you see the opportunity is there.  I could easily see Favors having a career year.  18/9 1.5 BPG/1SPG is not out of the question.  That would be good for 3/4th round value.  Once my starting 5 is assembled I am willing to go for upside, so I'm looking at Favors in the 6th, which still represents good value on where his ceiling might be.   

 

I'm on the Dieng/Favors/Mirotic train all day.  If I had to identify the three players most undervalued right now they would be near the top of the list.  Noel would another big in the same category, who I would select ahead of Dieng/Mirotic, but behind Favors.  That's one reason why I don't agree with people who say centers dry up fast.  Sure, centers who are a lock for top 50 value without hurting your FT% dry up fast, but that could be said of all positions.  Most of my "sleepers" are big men.  Throw Boban in there too :)

Edited by StifleTower2
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i think thats a tad aggresive on favors. 6th round is 60-72 in standard leagues which your already paying almost for his ceiling. agree that there is top 50 upside, but 6th round is still very early for my liking. for me, he is in that WCS, adams, dieng, valanciunas tier where you can get them starting in the 7th round or pick 75. these bigs can be had in the 80-100 range. obviously without the injury risk, he is several rounds earlier.

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