Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018


Rhythms
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 579
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

46 minutes ago, Eleqtrique said:

Alec Burks deserves a mention, he's been terrific so far, even hitting threes. 

Exum went down with a shoulder injury and could be out for a while, which could lead to Burks earning more minutes. 

 

 

Finally someone here mentions Burks! Of course a big question mark with his injury history but he has some value in punt assists team with his PG eligibility. And now Exum is out, more opportunity for Burks. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Derrick Favors is a huge sleeper for sure thanks to his disappointing injury-plagued season last year. With Gordon out of the picture, he's going to have a much bigger role offensively. The only concern about Favors is that he can't stay on the court. He's a great bargain since his ADP is around 110-120. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Burks can't be any worse than he was last season.

 

In regards to Aaron Gordon, he definitely didn't sneak under the radar in the league I drafted in last night.  He went at pick #60.

Gordon was completely overlooked in mine. I got him in the last round with like pick 122 or something. If he continues this play into the regular season he’ll end up being my best value pick 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, TheFire said:

Big sleeper: Alex Len

 

Phoenix has no front court with the injury of Alan Williams. Chandler is old, and Bender and Chriss are babies still. 

I don't know, Len is pretty much a baby too seeing his injuries. The only intriguing thing is that it is his contract year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Id avoid MKG. Too many injuries, too little progress. Powell isnt on my lists either. A bit too much hype and not seeing him start.

 

Ingles is decent, probably in the 60-80 range when its all said an done. Warren and RHJ have big upside. Warren seems to deal with a lot of injuries. Richardson is great for all round stats, but minutes could be fluky. I like his upside this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joes Ingles can be an all around kind of guy. Even tho he is starting his minutes will still likely be in the 22 to 28 mins a game range depending on the night. 

 

The jazz have a ton of depth this year.  Anyone thats not Rubio, Gobert will probably not see 30 plus minutes consistently.

 

Rodney will come in close with 28-29 mins a game but there good depth there too with Alec Burks, and Donovan Mitchell also getting burn. Then you got Thabo Sefelosha who will get minutes because thats the reason he agreed to join the team is to have a "bigger role". Iso Joe will also get his minutes. Jerekbo will also get his minutes. 

 

The jazz have a lot of depth between the 2-3 spot with alot of those players being able to play 3 positions.

 

So hard to see players outside of Rubio or Gobert being guaranteed 30 or more minutes a game. 

Edited by StarPig
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, TheFire said:

Big sleeper: Alex Len

 

Phoenix has no front court with the injury of Alan Williams. Chandler is old, and Bender and Chriss are babies still. 

 

"Big" is an exaggeration, he's a mild sleeper with some risk. He makes sense at the end of a draft as I said in the Len thread, but not earlier because even rounds 11 and 12 have gems..

 

He's mobile for his size and can run the floor, but overall I still think you'll see a committee at center because they'll want josh Jackson and warren at sf and pf, that means Chriss will have some C minutes.

 

the lack of depth I think at least guarantees him 18 20 plus mpg, which he can already produce good efficiency low end double double lines with blocks. Perfect complementary C for those who need to boost blocks and rebounds near the end of a draft, not many guys can replicate that at that spot. 

 

The caveat being that he's had issues overall defensively, getting pushed around, and he misses a lot of easy gimmes around the bucket (his touch is far from soft). 

 

I had had him at times last year and watching him miss open layups and hook shots around the basket was a tad annoying.

 

Theyre saying they simplified things for him now and he won't be trying to do too much but just keep it simple. Just expect nights where he's giving you a 6 / 6 / 1 type line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I said in another topic, there will be a maximum of 4 or 5 rookies who could make serviceable production for standard leagues

Probably Simmons, Ball, Smith

I read sleepers list full of rookies (Just like every season)

I have nothing against guys like Kuzma Swaningan or Allen but if you don't play fantasy for The first year you already know that a lot of these rookies will not play enough minutes To have an impact 

Don't trust preseason or Summer league heroes 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, GrandGourou said:

How do you rank these SF sleppers :

 

TJ Warren

RHJ

Josh Richardson

Joe Ingles

Norman Powell

MKG

 

Would you avoid any of them ? Or reach for one of them ?

 

RHJ seems to be improving his shot a bit, but for me its in this order:

 

TJ Warren - he has pretty disgusting upside even at 24. If you erase the months where he wasn't "right" last year, you pretty much have an 18 / 8 / 1 / 1.4 / .6 player. I read Watson saying that he's been their most impressive 3 point shooter in camp, and they expect him to hit a lot more 3's this year.. so far his FT looks promising in preseason as well.. a shooter as good as he is shouldn't be hovering around 75 .. he's only been in the league 3 seasons so I expect it will improve given how good a natural scorer he is. This guy can massively outplay his ADP and potentially return top 4 round value. He's the perfect complementary SF to any team build. 

 

Josh Richardson - Can play 3 positions, so minutes are safe. Might just lead all SGs / SFs in steals/blocks/3s combined (not individually). I like that he can also sprinkle in some assists (even if its fairly mild), it makes him better than say someone like KCP who doesn't block, is bad shooter, and doesn't assist at all on top of it. 

 

Joe Ingles - PPG isn't his calling, but the rebounds/assists/3's/steals are 4 cats where he can be a major difference maker. I like to compare him stat wise to a post-prime Boris Diaw (who was underrated for a few years on Charlotte after he fattened up).

 

Norman Powell - He's not going to give you much outside of PPG / some steals / some 3's / decent percentages. If you missed out on Hield in the 9th - 10th (which many people I talked to did and really regretted not taking him), then this guy is pretty much your carbon copy in round 12 or so. 

 

RHJ - Personally I really dont like the stat set of guys like RHJ, MKG, Thabo Sefolosha, etc. I think it's rather one dimensional. RHJ has a higher scoring ceiling than these non-shooting defensive prototypes. He can be more of a playmaker .. so rebounds / assists / steals / blocks are all there, and he should improve in his percentages. I'm just not a fan of drafting this type of player. I think you have to make up for their deficiencies too much. 

 

MKG - Absolutely on my do not draft list. Again, an SF who doesn't shoot 3's, isn't good in steals or blocks (which is bad considering that was supposed to be what he brings to the table). Doesn't take enough shots to make a major impact on FG%, FT% has improved but it's not a difference maker either (around 77%). I just don't see what he does well to warrant any fantasy consideration in non-deep leagues. Sure, he's only 23, but he's very limited offensively and Charlotte has plenty of weapons, they just need him as a defensive specialist. This is a classic case of a better real life player than a fantasy one (think Mbah A Moute or Tony Allen). 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

How is a 3rd year guy who projects to be above average in stl reb blk + ast one dimensional?

 

Let me clarify since the interpretation of the term 'one dimensional' can cause some confusion. My definition of it in terms of fantasy is someone who hurts you just as much as he helps you, not simply a 'scorer' or a 'rebounder, but someone who has just as many bad cats (or more) as they do good ones. 

 

You see, with someone like Draymond - he's so elite in the counting categories that you can overlook the glaring red flags (FG%, FT%). A player like RHJ is not afforded that same leeway. He slid in the draft because his jumpshot/scoring is highly suspect.

 

The term 'projects' can also be used loosely, because your projection and my projection are different. He got worse in FG%. His per 36 of steals is 1.7 and rebounds 9, assists 3.4 is nice on the surface (but he'll never play that much because he can't stretch the floor and teams will sag), but even then his assists were still fairly marginal for a 22 mpg player (2.0 assists per). He's not suddenly going to handle the ball more with Russell now in the mix, Kilpatrick is a hog, LeVert likes the ball in his hands, you still have Lin, and now they added Crabbe. Rondae is a steals / boards specialist, what made Tony Allen better is that he could at least hit his FG%. You basically have a two-cat specialist (three is a stretch for either assists or blocks). You're completely relying on his upside/"projected" improvement, and I believe it's wishful thinking.

 

I don't invest in players who hurt me as much as they help me. I've had enough of the Tony Wrotens and Evan Turners, and so on and so forth, and even they bring a bit more to the table than Rondae does. 

Should he improve his FG% substantially and bring up his assists/blocks to above average levels, then at least you can make an argument that he's roster-worthy as his 4 cat specialty (ala Draymond - 5 cat with 3's) can balance out his multiple weaknesses, but currently he's been taken purely on speculation. Not a fan, even furthered by all of the additions to BKN. 

 

I've seen you tout him a couple of times as a sleeper (a lot of the RW guys like Gallagher like him as well), and personally I advise against it until he proves that he can actually do something other than steal and rebound.

 

Lastly, there are SO many SG/SFs this year, that I would be losing out on better all-around guys with more balanced categories such as say a Norman Powell, an Allen Crabbe, a Jeremy Lamb in the later rounds if I chose to go for Rondae. 

Edited by Lifschitz
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To add another guy, I'd much rather have Ingles if I'm going the route of a low scoring guy who gives goodies in multiple cats. Steals, 3's, assists, boards, without hurting me anywhere but PPG? (such low FT attempts that his low 70% is mitigated) Yes please.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

 

RHJ seems to be improving his shot a bit, but for me its in this order:

 

TJ Warren - he has pretty disgusting upside even at 24. If you erase the months where he wasn't "right" last year, you pretty much have an 18 / 8 / 1 / 1.4 / .6 player. I read Watson saying that he's been their most impressive 3 point shooter in camp, and they expect him to hit a lot more 3's this year.. so far his FT looks promising in preseason as well.. a shooter as good as he is shouldn't be hovering around 75 .. he's only been in the league 3 seasons so I expect it will improve given how good a natural scorer he is. This guy can massively outplay his ADP and potentially return top 4 round value. He's the perfect complementary SF to any team build. 

 

Josh Richardson - Can play 3 positions, so minutes are safe. Might just lead all SGs / SFs in steals/blocks/3s combined (not individually). I like that he can also sprinkle in some assists (even if its fairly mild), it makes him better than say someone like KCP who doesn't block, is bad shooter, and doesn't assist at all on top of it. 

 

Joe Ingles - PPG isn't his calling, but the rebounds/assists/3's/steals are 4 cats where he can be a major difference maker. I like to compare him stat wise to a post-prime Boris Diaw (who was underrated for a few years on Charlotte after he fattened up).

 

Norman Powell - He's not going to give you much outside of PPG / some steals / some 3's / decent percentages. If you missed out on Hield in the 9th - 10th (which many people I talked to did and really regretted not taking him), then this guy is pretty much your carbon copy in round 12 or so. 

 

RHJ - Personally I really dont like the stat set of guys like RHJ, MKG, Thabo Sefolosha, etc. I think it's rather one dimensional. RHJ has a higher scoring ceiling than these non-shooting defensive prototypes. He can be more of a playmaker .. so rebounds / assists / steals / blocks are all there, and he should improve in his percentages. I'm just not a fan of drafting this type of player. I think you have to make up for their deficiencies too much. 

 

MKG - Absolutely on my do not draft list. Again, an SF who doesn't shoot 3's, isn't good in steals or blocks (which is bad considering that was supposed to be what he brings to the table). Doesn't take enough shots to make a major impact on FG%, FT% has improved but it's not a difference maker either (around 77%). I just don't see what he does well to warrant any fantasy consideration in non-deep leagues. Sure, he's only 23, but he's very limited offensively and Charlotte has plenty of weapons, they just need him as a defensive specialist. This is a classic case of a better real life player than a fantasy one (think Mbah A Moute or Tony Allen). 

 

 

 

I don't know if you missed last season but MKG averaged 1 stl and 1 blk per game...

 

To quote elitefantasybasketball: "Kidd-Gilchrist was a top-60 player over the last three months of the 2016-2017 season. You’d think that production like that would lead to a little more love in the preseason rankings. MKG defensive prowess finally translated to the box score last season (1.0 SPG, 0.9 BPG) and he was also one of the better rebounders at the small forward position (7.0 RPG). Everything looks repeatable outside of the boards. "

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, GmGodine said:

 

I don't know if you missed last season but MKG averaged 1 stl and 1 blk per game...

 

To quote elitefantasybasketball: "Kidd-Gilchrist was a top-60 player over the last three months of the 2016-2017 season. You’d think that production like that would lead to a little more love in the preseason rankings. MKG defensive prowess finally translated to the box score last season (1.0 SPG, 0.9 BPG) and he was also one of the better rebounders at the small forward position (7.0 RPG). Everything looks repeatable outside of the boards. "

 

Despite your condescending remark, you conveniently glossed over the part where I stated compared to expectations. People thought MKG would be Gerald Wallace, instead were impressed he can achieve 1 / 1. The seasons prior he could barely stay afloat at half of that average.

 

Round out your bench with him, again, I chase more complete players. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Lifschitz said:

 

Despite your condescending remark, you conveniently glossed over the part where I stated compared to expectations. People thought MKG would be Gerald Wallace, instead were impressed he can achieve 1 / 1. The seasons prior he could barely stay afloat at half of that average.

 

Round out your bench with him, again, I chase more complete players. 

 

Who do you expect to pick at 11th or 12th rounds in the draft as the more complete players?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

Let me clarify since the interpretation of the term 'one dimensional' can cause some confusion. My definition of it in terms of fantasy is someone who hurts you just as much as he helps you, not simply a 'scorer' or a 'rebounder, but someone who has just as many bad cats (or more) as they do good ones. 

 

You see, with someone like Draymond - he's so elite in the counting categories that you can overlook the glaring red flags (FG%, FT%). A player like RHJ is not afforded that same leeway. He slid in the draft because his jumpshot/scoring is highly suspect.

 

The term 'projects' can also be used loosely, because your projection and my projection are different. He got worse in FG%. His per 36 of steals is 1.7 and rebounds 9, assists 3.4 is nice on the surface (but he'll never play that much because he can't stretch the floor and teams will sag), but even then his assists were still fairly marginal for a 22 mpg player (2.0 assists per). He's not suddenly going to handle the ball more with Russell now in the mix, Kilpatrick is a hog, LeVert likes the ball in his hands, you still have Lin, and now they added Crabbe. Rondae is a steals / boards specialist, what made Tony Allen better is that he could at least hit his FG%. You basically have a two-cat specialist (three is a stretch for either assists or blocks). You're completely relying on his upside/"projected" improvement, and I believe it's wishful thinking.

 

I don't invest in players who hurt me as much as they help me. I've had enough of the Tony Wrotens and Evan Turners, and so on and so forth, and even they bring a bit more to the table than Rondae does. 

Should he improve his FG% substantially and bring up his assists/blocks to above average levels, then at least you can make an argument that he's roster-worthy as his 4 cat specialty (ala Draymond - 5 cat with 3's) can balance out his multiple weaknesses, but currently he's been taken purely on speculation. Not a fan, even furthered by all of the additions to BKN. 

 

I've seen you tout him a couple of times as a sleeper (a lot of the RW guys like Gallagher like him as well), and personally I advise against it until he proves that he can actually do something other than steal and rebound.

 

Lastly, there are SO many SG/SFs this year, that I would be losing out on better all-around guys with more balanced categories such as say a Norman Powell, an Allen Crabbe, a Jeremy Lamb in the later rounds if I chose to go for Rondae. 

I agree with most of what you said, I understand your point. Guys who hurt you just as much as they help you could be useful for some teams employing a punt strategy. But you're also talking about RHJ, someone you can get with a disposable draft pick, whom you can drop for a hot FA if you're willing to do so.

I do like Ingles, he got sniped from me, and I believe in Powell as well. But say those guys you mentioned go earlier now that pre-season is mid way through, and RHJ slips a bit, I can justify a flyer pick on him 100%.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...