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Jason Vargas 2017 Outlook


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I'm not on either of their level, but I had written this up earlier tonight, so figured I'd respond:   BUYING. Proven depth piece with surprising upside.    Sure, small sample size

I agree his ERA and HR/FB% are both going up, obviously, because they are ridiculously low.  But I wouldn't be too dismissive of Vargas based on xFIP / SIERA.  There's another guy in the AL that is a

When a guy has an FIP/XFIP/SEIRA of 0.98/1.98/2.05 over 20 some innings you take notice.   Groundball rate is over 50% and his swinging strike and first strike rate are on par with the best

I watched his start tonight because I went heavy against him in DFS.  

 

One thing that really stood out was his change usage.

 

Another was he displayed a gb tilt whereas in the past he was a fb guy (which is why with 17mph winds going out to left I went against him).   That carried forward from ST.

 

Paging @mysonx3 and @taobball and any of pitching stat crunchers.

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I picked him up as a streaming option yesterday, and he looked really good.  So far his first two starts have proven to be great.

 

Now i'm debating if I should drop him or make space.

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6 hours ago, Rabbit Maranville said:

 

 

I'm not on either of their level, but I had written this up earlier tonight, so figured I'd respond:

 

BUYING. Proven depth piece with surprising upside. 

 

Sure, small sample size of post-TJS success, but it does go back to the last month of 2016. Looking at some of the metrics that stabilize the fastest, his BB%, and especially his K% and swStr% have seen fairly significant gains from his pre-TJS numbers. He was a steady back-end starter, but his 2016-2017 stats indicate that there may have been a significant refinement of his skillset while he was recovering from TJS. 

 

He hasn't added any pitches or altered his usage much or seen any magical post-TJS velo gains, but he's been generating whiffs on his changeup at a much higher rate than pre-TJS. It's always been his main secondary pitch, but the whiff percentage in this 2016-2017 sample is elite. For reference, Kyle Hendrick's 2016 whiff% on changeups was 24%, David Price's was 23%. 

 

 

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(I don't think the above graph is updated with last night's start, so I might refresh tomorrow b/c he looked really good again and that's only like 40 2017 changups).

 

His command in his past three starts has looked plus plus. He's been generally living on the corners, although maybe that's just vintage Vargas, I don't really remember. KC announcers were talking about his craftiness, however cliche that is about this type of pitcher, but they pointed out his deception in his grip-- how he will flash certain grips to the hitter and then switch it up before delivering the pitch. That type of s--- never even entered my mind. Announcers were also talking about how he got into killer shape while rehabbing since he didn't have anything else to do.

 

Also, a generally favorable upcoming schedule, at least for an American League pitcher:

 

vSF, @CWS, vMIN, vCLE, @TB, vNYY, @MIN, @CLE

 

Kauffman's pitcher friendly. It's not the vintage Royals defense behind him, but it's still an above-average unit w/ Escobar, Mondesi, Cain, and Perez up the middle. 

 

CSB: I live in AZ and went to see Royals v A's about two weeks ago, specifically to get a look at Andrew Triggs. Vargas happened to be pitching for the Royals that day, and he, again, looked great against the A's. Wouldn't have considered him this season otherwise. 

Appreciate the analysis. I'm debating whether to roster him or throw him back. Still not sure yet.

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15 hours ago, 96mnc said:

I watched his start tonight because I went heavy against him in DFS.  

 

One thing that really stood out was his change usage.

 

Another was he displayed a gb tilt whereas in the past he was a fb guy (which is why with 17mph winds going out to left I went against him).   That carried forward from ST.

 

Paging @mysonx3 and @taobball and any of pitching stat crunchers.

Was just doing some research on him last night actually. I'll have a post at some point, but I think I owe @JFS179 a couple posts on other pitchers, haha.

I agree with everything @Rabbit Maranville said. I love me a good changeup.

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I am newer to FBB so I don't know all the metrics of his pitching, but FWIW Giants offense has been pretty atrocious lately.

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1 hour ago, dod959 said:

I'm watching him throw 87 mph fastballs past people. He hits Perez's glove 9 out of 10 pitches. 

Is this a good thing, like amazing control is working for him like he's some poor man's Greg Maddux? Or is the slow FB gonna catch up to him eventually and he's a sell high?

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3 minutes ago, agg2596 said:

Is this a good thing, like amazing control is working for him like he's some poor man's Greg Maddux? Or is the slow FB gonna catch up to him eventually and he's a sell high?

 

He's got a real nice change up and it looks the hitters have 0 clue when he's going change or FB..

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19 minutes ago, agg2596 said:

Is this a good thing, like amazing control is working for him like he's some poor man's Greg Maddux? Or is the slow FB gonna catch up to him eventually and he's a sell high?

 

I would say as of right this minute, he has the best command in the league. Perez calls a good game and frames well. He can throw 3 pitches in any count which is actually rare nowadays. 

 

His change up is basically unhittable right now. He is putting it on the outside corner every single time to RHBs and they are whiffing or hitting 5 hoppers to Escobar. 

 

As for his fastball, it's possible he has some insane deception or some elite spin rates. He could be a lefty Marco Estrada. But he varies when and where he puts the fastball. He basically throws it to all 4 parts of the plate from what I've seen. But there has to be something more to it because hitters are just not reacting properly to that pitch. 

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When a guy has an FIP/XFIP/SEIRA of 0.98/1.98/2.05 over 20 some innings you take notice.

 

Groundball rate is over 50% and his swinging strike and first strike rate are on par with the best starting pitchers in the game. 

 

The sample size is still very small ... but the peripherals are supporting the dominant performance so far. 

 

Grab while you still can.

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8 hours ago, Gryfter said:

Grabbed him last week but just couldnt start him against MadBum...oh well.

 

2 start week coming up!

I'm assuming you're on an innings or starts limit because passing up on ERA/WHIP/K/etc. just to maybe not get a W seems strange to me

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9 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

I'm assuming you're on an innings or starts limit because passing up on ERA/WHIP/K/etc. just to maybe not get a W seems strange to me

 

And sf is one of the worst offenses missing one of their best hitters. Either ball park seems like an auto start unless you don't believe I'm Vargas yet (which is understandable)

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