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Jason Vargas 2017 Outlook


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2 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

I'm assuming you're on an innings or starts limit because passing up on ERA/WHIP/K/etc. just to maybe not get a W seems strange to me

 

It was more my opponent starts 3 closers so I went with 4...that leaves 5 spots for starters. Sale and Cueto are automatics, of course. To make up for my opponent's 6 starters, I stacked the 3 starters with 2 start weeks. I had a chance to swap out Amir for Vargas but I drafted Amir and after his 2 great starts and with Vargas facing MadBum, well there you have it.

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I'm not on either of their level, but I had written this up earlier tonight, so figured I'd respond:   BUYING. Proven depth piece with surprising upside.    Sure, small sample size

I agree his ERA and HR/FB% are both going up, obviously, because they are ridiculously low.  But I wouldn't be too dismissive of Vargas based on xFIP / SIERA.  There's another guy in the AL that is a

When a guy has an FIP/XFIP/SEIRA of 0.98/1.98/2.05 over 20 some innings you take notice.   Groundball rate is over 50% and his swinging strike and first strike rate are on par with the best

I watched the game against SF and the commentator was saying how he's doing an excellent job this year keeping the ball around the edge of the box. Looking at the zone profile on Brooks it looks like he's keeping the ball away from the top of the zone and is pounding the ball more inside than outside for both RHH and LHH. I'm no expert and new to using Brooks so not sure what all of implies but thought it was neat to see some sort of a pattern (despite the small sample size).

 

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35 minutes ago, fingy said:

I watched the game against SF and the commentator was saying how he's doing an excellent job this year keeping the ball around the edge of the box. Looking at the zone profile on Brooks it looks like he's keeping the ball away from the top of the zone and is pounding the ball more inside than outside for both RHH and LHH. I'm no expert and new to using Brooks so not sure what all of implies but thought it was neat to see some sort of a pattern (despite the small sample size).

 

I watched as well and can echo this. I'll be honest, I don't think his stuff is good and I think he will go back the typical Vargas if someone figures out his deception and pitch mix. That said, I had trouble telling his FB and change apart until late so  I can't imagine what that must be like as a batter. Only about a 5 mph velocity difference too. Different pitchers and different ways of achieving this result, but if there's something this reminds me of it's the Mike Fiers run in 2014 where the stuff wasn't the greatest but his use of the curve and high fastball made him near unhittable for a while despite not having the best stuff.

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50 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Is his K rate for real? I have such a hard time trusting someone who has a fastball that only reaches 87mph. Who's the comparable soft tossing K per pitcher?

 

The only guy I can think of is Rich Hill at the moment, and even he throws a tad harder. Everyone had a hard time buying on him at first as well.  Lots of weird parallels there.  Soft tossing mid 30s guys coming out and striking out everyone all of the sudden. Weird.

 

Hill is doing it with the curve, which is creating all those blisters.  Vargas is doing it with the change.

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1 hour ago, RAZRr1275 said:

I watched as well and can echo this. I'll be honest, I don't think his stuff is good and I think he will go back the typical Vargas if someone figures out his deception and pitch mix. That said, I had trouble telling his FB and change apart until late so  I can't imagine what that must be like as a batter. Only about a 5 mph velocity difference too. Different pitchers and different ways of achieving this result, but if there's something this reminds me of it's the Mike Fiers run in 2014 where the stuff wasn't the greatest but his use of the curve and high fastball made him near unhittable for a while despite not having the best stuff.

I too was fooled by his change a few times. Not sure what's up but I'm willing to ride him for now. He has a great matchups coming up vs CWS. 

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He's been a decent pitcher, but like Hill always hurt.  Started to see some rise in K rate last year in the majors & minors although small samples.  

 

His change has always  been a good pitch for him.  He's not really even throwing it more.  According to fangraphs, he has a knuckle curve that's been unhittable.  Literally

 

wont rule out a good season if he can stay healthy but he'll probably come back to a mid 3 era pitcher. He's definitely serviceable 

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

He's been a decent pitcher, but like Hill always hurt.  Started to see some rise in K rate last year in the majors & minors although small samples.  

 

His change has always  been a good pitch for him.  He's not really even throwing it more.  According to fangraphs, he has a knuckle curve that's been unhittable.  Literally

 

wont rule out a good season if he can stay healthy but he'll probably come back to a mid 3 era pitcher. He's definitely serviceable 

 

Not true.  Vargas was injured and missed the majority of 2015 and 2016.

 

Before 2015 he was quite durable.  He became a full time SP in 2010.  Innings pitched from 2010 to 2014 (5 years):

2010 = 192

2011 = 201

2012 = 217

2013 = 150 (had a short DL stint)

2014 = 187

 

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21 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

Not true.  Vargas was injured and missed the majority of 2015 and 2016.

 

Before 2015 he was quite durable.  He became a full time SP in 2010.  Innings pitched from 2010 to 2014 (5 years):

2010 = 192

2011 = 201

2012 = 217

2013 = 150 (had a short DL stint)

2014 = 187

 

 

I stand corrected then.  I thought he was hurt early in his career

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53 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

Can this guy possibly be for real or is this just a blip in the space-time contiuum?

 

Realistically, probably the latter.  He's 34 years old and throughout his career has largely been serviceable at best.  Where I have him I'm riding the wave while I can, but I have no delusions that it'll last the whole season.  

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1 minute ago, alisgodnow said:

I read this thread and then was relieved when I saw his line. If this is a bad outing then sign me up.

yeah a little overreaction on my part, but it's plausible given how lights out he's been.

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10 minutes ago, alisgodnow said:

I read this thread and then was relieved when I saw his line. If this is a bad outing then sign me up.

This white sox team is pretty bad.  The line isn't as ugly as reactions may seem, but have a feeling this is more of a typical outing than just a bad one.

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

This white sox team is pretty bad.  The line isn't as ugly as reactions may seem, but have a feeling this is more of a typical outing than just a bad one.

 

Bingo. A better team would have lit him up like a Christmas tree. The regression fairies are just getting started. 

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2 minutes ago, dod959 said:

He had a 3.50 FIP today. 

 

He gave up 3 runs. Am I missing something here? 

You aren't missing anything. Typical RW overreactions. I mean lets be real, we're hoping for a 3.5-3.6 ERA at best to begin with for the season. These starts will happen. Nothing to see right now. The point now is to see if he's a 3.5 ERA guy or a 4 ERA guy which would make him less rosterable.

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2 minutes ago, dod959 said:

He had a 3.50 FIP today. 

 

He gave up 3 runs. Am I missing something here? 

It took him 97 pitches to get through 5ip against a lineup consisting of primarily .200 hitters.  As someone mentioned, regression is setting in and he is who we thought he was.

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9 minutes ago, herschel said:

It took him 97 pitches to get through 5ip against a lineup consisting of primarily .200 hitters.  As someone mentioned, regression is setting in and he is who we thought he was.

 

One extra base hit, an opposite field hr to Davidson. 5 ks, 0 bbs. Ks didn't regress.

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