Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Jason Vargas 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 154
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I'm not on either of their level, but I had written this up earlier tonight, so figured I'd respond:   BUYING. Proven depth piece with surprising upside.    Sure, small sample size

I agree his ERA and HR/FB% are both going up, obviously, because they are ridiculously low.  But I wouldn't be too dismissive of Vargas based on xFIP / SIERA.  There's another guy in the AL that is a

When a guy has an FIP/XFIP/SEIRA of 0.98/1.98/2.05 over 20 some innings you take notice.   Groundball rate is over 50% and his swinging strike and first strike rate are on par with the best

Not gonna win the cy. Going to give up a boat load of homers. If you own him you need to decide what starts you run him out there from here. And with the way baseball goes he probably will throw well the days he should be a sit and gets hit hard in the favorable match ups he should be a start 

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Going to give up a boat load of homers

Why? He hasn't historically had a problem with the longball and he's in a pitcher friendly park

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/12/2017 at 8:55 AM, worldclass said:

Vargas is 200-1 right now to win the Cy Young. 

Please tell me where I can place this bet.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/14/2017 at 11:39 AM, mysonx3 said:

Why? He hasn't historically had a problem with the longball and he's in a pitcher friendly park

Uh what?

 

2012 he gave up 35. The year before 22. These are the only years he surpassed 200 IP. He gives up a ton of homers when he pitches historically. Other years in double digits with less IP. 35 homers in 2012. That's a problem with the longball

Link to post
Share on other sites

Vargas' HR/FB rate for his career is 8.5-9%, which is right around league average, or slightly lower.  That might equate to a somewhat higher total of HRs allowed because he is a flyball pitcher (~40%).  Right now his HR/FB rate is only 2%, which will almost certainly go up, but I'm not sure that tells the whole story.

 

In 2011 and 2012 he had ERAs of 4.25 and 3.85, respectively, but opponents were also batting .258 and .242 off him in those years.  Very small sample size in 2016 opponents only hit .182 which equated to a 2.25 ERA in 3 GS, and so far in 2017 opponents are hitting only .205 to the tune of a 1.01 ERA.  

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is maybe this guy has figured something out and is just less hit-able all around.  He's a FB pitcher that's going to give up the long ball more than a GB pitcher, but if batters are having less success off him all around then there will be few runners on base when the HRs are hit, and less HRs total due to less contact.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Uh what?

 

2012 he gave up 35. The year before 22. These are the only years he surpassed 200 IP. He gives up a ton of homers when he pitches historically. Other years in double digits with less IP. 35 homers in 2012. That's a problem with the longball

Jason Vargas made his MLB debut in 2005. Since then, the MLB average HR/9 had been 1.03. Jason Vargas owns a career 1.07 mark. It hasn't gone above 1.05 since 2012.

Jason Vargas does NOT have a problem with the longball.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys who say he doesn't have a HR problem I just want to make sure you're around your televisions around 7:00 PM tonight eastern standard time. Can you do that? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

You guys who say he doesn't have a HR problem I just want to make sure you're around your televisions around 7:00 PM tonight eastern standard time. Can you do that? 

 

K, so a career average 1 HR/9 guy (perfectly league average) whose currently giving up only 0.37 HR/9 (which everyone agrees is due for some regression), could possibly give up more HRs in a band box park vs one of the league's top offenses? Miss Cleo, is that you? 

 

Seriously I think everyone will be sitting him tonight, and expecting the worst. Even if he gives up 4 HR tonight that just regresses his 2017 numbers to league average, and his career average. If you want to ignore a large sample size of data for one night then be my guest. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't be surprised if he left with an injury tonight. He really labored last start and Yost let him throw 49 pitches in an inning despite having a recent major surgery. Yankees were on him all night but his stuff fell off dramatically in that 4th inning... didn't seem right

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

You guys who say he doesn't have a HR problem I just want to make sure you're around your televisions around 7:00 PM tonight eastern standard time. Can you do that? 

 

Why are you so insistent on saying he has a home run problem?  I'll start with 2010, just because it's the first season he put up decent innings.  

 

2010: 0.84 HR/9, league average 0.96

2011: 0.99, 0.94

2012: 1.45, 1.02

2013: 1.02, 0.96

2014: 0.91, 0.86  

 

I'll leave out 2015 and 2016 just because he didn't pitch much, but in five seasons, he only had a home run problem once.  He's not phenomenal at limiting the long ball by any means, but he statistically doesn't have as big a problem with it as you're saying.  Yes, there's a good chance he gets hit up tonight, but that's because of who he's playing and where he's playing, not because he has an inherent problem with home runs.

Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

There was never sell high window for Jason Vargas in any league I play in. 

Why so much hate?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

You guys who say he doesn't have a HR problem I just want to make sure you're around your televisions around 7:00 PM tonight eastern standard time. Can you do that? 

 

lol.  I'm starting Vargas tonight along w/ Glasnow and Lackey even though winds are 20 mph out to center .  I have Danny Salazar anyway so....

 

21915.gif

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

There was never sell high window for Jason Vargas in any league I play in. 

 

Yeah I'm right there with you .... It's more like a ride him out window.... And honestly this guy has impressed me so far.  

 

I know it may be against popular belief and/or a bit taboo here but I'm starting him tonight with a big smile of confidence.  Having faith where others are unable too can be a huge pay off in fantasy sports.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

There was never sell high window for Jason Vargas in any league I play in. 

 

I can agree with this one . . . Vargas is a guy you ride into the ground. The distrust is so high that there isn't much of a sell high markup, so if he does turn out to be for real you lost a lot of value. On the other hand you got him for free so if he falls off then just put him back where you found him. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...