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Jason Vargas 2017 Outlook


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I'm not on either of their level, but I had written this up earlier tonight, so figured I'd respond:   BUYING. Proven depth piece with surprising upside.    Sure, small sample size

I agree his ERA and HR/FB% are both going up, obviously, because they are ridiculously low.  But I wouldn't be too dismissive of Vargas based on xFIP / SIERA.  There's another guy in the AL that is a

When a guy has an FIP/XFIP/SEIRA of 0.98/1.98/2.05 over 20 some innings you take notice.   Groundball rate is over 50% and his swinging strike and first strike rate are on par with the best

He gave up a homer, it happens.  But if this turns ugly and he goes on to have 2 more bad outings in a row it will be drop time.  He's earned a bit of a leash as far as im concerned.  Let this game play out though.

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11 hours ago, mevins31 said:

You guys who say he doesn't have a HR problem I just want to make sure you're around your televisions around 7:00 PM tonight eastern standard time. Can you do that? 

 

QS @NYY w/ 6K.  Most starters would be pretty happy w/ that line vs a hot team getting a 2nd look at home.

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I started "by accident" because I forgot to take him out of my lineup (which I was intending to do), but happy with the results.  

 

Funny how the naysayers pop back in with preemptive "told you so's" mid-game but don't come back after he turns in the QS.  I'm not sure why some people seem to always have a point to prove on this board.  It's for sharing player info, which in my eyes should be relatively subjective, not clouded by "I own this guy so I want him to succeed" or "I missed on this guy so he must stink!".

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2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

I started "by accident" because I forgot to take him out of my lineup (which I was intending to do), but happy with the results.  

 

Funny how the naysayers pop back in with preemptive "told you so's" mid-game but don't come back after he turns in the QS.  I'm not sure why some people seem to always have a point to prove on this board.  It's for sharing player info, which in my eyes should be relatively subjective, not clouded by "I own this guy so I want him to succeed" or "I missed on this guy so he must stink!".

Mid-game performance is supposed to stay in the game day thread so it doesn't clog up player threads with nonsense. It's also much less embarrassing for people who proclaim things too soon.

 

This was a good bounce back start on the road vs a tough lineup that hit him hard last time. Very pleased.

 

We're on to Cleveland.

Edited by StevieStats
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  • 2 weeks later...

If he manages a QS it's going to be one of those 6 IP 3 ER "just across the finish line" kind of outings, kind of like @NYY a few starts back.  

 

I think I'll roll w/ him though.  This seems like a showcase game for him re: a trade to a contender (maybe even HOU).

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On my bench as well. The potential to get rocked is too big, and the likelihood for a win vs Keuchel is too low. Finding it hard lately to confidently put him out there, even if he's not pitching terribly.

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3 hours ago, cornerback said:

At the moment against the astros....no sorry. On my bench for this one.

I know this comment will come back to bite me, but you're sitting a guy with a 2.08 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, at home, coming off a CGSO... let that sink in

Edited by JJ1223
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2 minutes ago, El Guapo said:

On my bench as well. The potential to get rocked is too big, and the likelihood for a win vs Keuchel is too low. Finding it hard lately to confidently put him out there, even if he's not pitching terribly.

"not pitching terribly" might be one of the biggest understatements I've seen on the boards this year.  He's top-10 at the moment.

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I'm not sure what kind of shallow league or pitcher heavy rosters you guys are playing with to sit this guy. Maybe you play h2h and already have all pitching categories won by Wednesday.

In most leagues, be it roto or h2h, you want to get as many innings as you can out of a guy like this, regardless of who they're against. 

Edited by Fiveohnine
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1 hour ago, JJ1223 said:

"not pitching terribly" might be one of the biggest understatements I've seen on the boards this year.  He's top-10 at the moment.

 

Over his last 5 starts, he has only 19 Ks in 32 IP. If he's not striking people out, I worry about what they will do to those 85 mph pitches. I feel like it's not a matter of if, but when, he gets shelled. 

 

I didn't advise anyone to sit him, just noted that I am not starting him. Since I play in roto leagues with IP limits, I can be choosy with whom I start. 

 

To me, despite how well he has done, he's not someone who screams set it and forget it like other guys. I play the matchups. I know I've left some good starts on the table, but I care less about missing out on those than dealing with a potential blow up to my ratios (it took a while to get past the effect that Gausman's early starts had on my ratios). 

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

I'm not sure what kind of shallow league or pitcher heavy rosters you guys are playing with to sit this guy. Maybe you play h2h and already have all pitching categories won by Wednesday.

In most leagues, be it roto or h2h, you want to get as many innings as you can out of a guy like this, regardless of who they're against. 

 

It matters more in roto leagues with IP caps. Since you have only a set number of innings (i am in leagues with a 1450 IP limit and 1300 IP) you want to maximize the good K/9 and win oppos. Not blowing up your ratios is also important. 

 

As i said above, he's just a guy that I don't have a lot of confidence in despite the early success. I just use him for good matchups. 

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32 minutes ago, El Guapo said:

 

Over his last 5 starts, he has only 19 Ks in 32 IP. If he's not striking people out, I worry about what they will do to those 85 mph pitches. I feel like it's not a matter of if, but when, he gets shelled. 

 

I didn't advise anyone to sit him, just noted that I am not starting him. Since I play in roto leagues with IP limits, I can be choosy with whom I start. 

 

To me, despite how well he has done, he's not someone who screams set it and forget it like other guys. I play the matchups. I know I've left some good starts on the table, but I care less about missing out on those than dealing with a potential blow up to my ratios (it took a while to get past the effect that Gausman's early starts had on my ratios). 

I feel you, but we've been playing the "when, not if" game with him for like 1.5 months now.  We all doubted him @NYY, escaped with the QS and 9 K/9.  We doubted him @CLE, he only went 5.2 but still got the W and only 2 ER.  We doubted him again vCLE and he went CGSO.  I get we all have different leagues and settings, but it's incredibly hard to justify sitting him right now.  Outside of the lack of Ks you pointed out; results are results.

 

Yes, I realize he's probably going to get rocked now because I'm defending him so hard.

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Yes, I realize he's probably going to get rocked now because I'm defending him so hard.

 

This is feeling that I can't shake with Vargas, that the Ratio Apocalypse is just around the corner.  And that's crazy for a Top 12 pitcher!

 

Honestly, do you look at a tough Strasburg start and say, "Hm, playing @ MIL, better sit him." No way. But I find myself doing that with Vargas. I did start him for the CGSO b/c it was at home and against a CLE team he'd beaten already. I sat him for both NYY games, one of which worked out in my favor but neither of which I regretted.

 

And I feel the same way against a HOU lineup that can hit top to bottom. There's a good chance he goes 6 innings with 3 or 4 Ks and 1 ER. There's also a chance he goes 4.1 with 6 ER and no Ks. With Vargas, the possibility of the latter occupies an outsized part of my brain right now.  ::shrugs::

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Well, in a 1300 IP league there may be situations where I'd sit Strasburg too.

But in standard type 8-14 team leagues, either h2h or roto, I can't see why anyone would ever consider sitting this guy right now.

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4 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Well, in a 1300 IP league there may be situations where I'd sit Strasburg too.

But in standard type 8-14 team leagues, either h2h or roto, I can't see why anyone would ever consider sitting this guy right now.

Over thinking. That's the only reason. He's had 1 dud in 11 starts.

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15 hours ago, El Guapo said:

 

This is feeling that I can't shake with Vargas, that the Ratio Apocalypse is just around the corner.  And that's crazy for a Top 12 pitcher!

 

Honestly, do you look at a tough Strasburg start and say, "Hm, playing @ MIL, better sit him." No way. But I find myself doing that with Vargas. I did start him for the CGSO b/c it was at home and against a CLE team he'd beaten already. I sat him for both NYY games, one of which worked out in my favor but neither of which I regretted.

 

 

I think that lack of confidence in Vargas vs. Strasburg is all just name attachment / recognition.  Even if "Jason Vargas" was a fresh name that nobody had ever heard of, people would be much less skeptical than the current attachment people have of "mediocre #4/5 SP".  I know it's just human nature, but it's also a bit silly when you come in the Vargas thread and it's full of skeptics trying to use any advanced stat they can find to point to it being a mirage, and then go into the thread of a struggling former star and see the opposite.  

 

At this point a lot of the advanced stats that people were worried about have moved closer to the mean, and Vargas' numbers are still solid.  HR/FB% was a big concern early on, but it has grown to 6.3% (much closer to his career average around 8%), and he still hasn't turned into a pumpkin.  He's #14 in MLB with a 3.29 FIP, which puts him just behind guys like Kershaw and Keuchel, and just ahead of guys like C-Mart and Carrasco.  Not saying he's as good or better than all of those guys, just saying his good results are looking like less of a fluke all the time.

 

I know last night's line was nothing special (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K with the W), and you'll say you're fine with leaving that stat line on the bench to avoid potential blowups, but at some point people have to start taking his 2.18 ERA / 1.12 WHIP seriously, and if you're sitting him half the time then you're losing out on 100+ IP of low-2 ERA pitching.  

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2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

I know last night's line was nothing special (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K with the W), and you'll say you're fine with leaving that stat line on the bench to avoid potential blowups...

really? I think the vast majority of leagues would not be fine with leaving that on the bench if the alternative is a spot start of some guy on waivers vs. SF, SD, KC, LAA or something. If a pitcher is on waivers in a 8-14 team league, there's usually a good reason for it.

He did give up 6 hits and a walk, which was really a slight drawback considering it was against the Dreaded. Houston. Astros.

And you can never totally avoid the "potential" of a blowup. Even the teams I mentioned above could light up any given SP in the majors on any given night. They don't get paid all that money for nothing.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with everything else you said. But in the vast majority of formats, there's just really no serious argument for sitting a guy who's been pitching this well, regardless of whether Vargas had gotten blown up or pitched a perfect game last night.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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