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Jason Vargas 2017 Outlook


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1 minute ago, Fiveohnine said:

really? I think the vast majority of leagues would not be fine with leaving that on the bench if the alternative is a spot start of some guy on waivers vs. SF, SD, KC, LAA or something. If a pitcher is on waivers in a 8-14 team league, there's usually a good reason for it.

He did give up 6 hits and a walk, which was really a slight drawback considering it was against the Dreaded. Houston. Astros.

And you can never totally avoid the "potential" of a blowup. Even the teams I mentioned above could light up any given SP in the majors on any given night. They don't get paid all that money for nothing.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with everything else you said. But in the vast majority of formats, there's just really no serious argument for sitting a guy who's been pitching this well.

 

I agree completely, the 'being fine with sitting that stat line' comment was more particularly directed at @El Guapo because he previously said he was OK with sitting Vargas for the good NYY game since he also missed his bad NYY game.  I'm personally not OK with leaving that stat line on my bench, but I do understand there are different formats.  

 

And I also agree it's very hard to predict a good game to sit a SP, especially one with a 2.18 ERA.  Logically the blowups would all happen vs. the top offenses, but quite often you'll go back through game logs and see a SP's worst game might have been against KC or SD - like you said they are all big league hitters, and the best pitchers are often the best because they throw pitches that are difficult to hit, so when they get hit hard it is more a result of them not having their "best stuff" than being overmatched by better hitters.

 

This all goes back to my final point that you can pick and choose when you "feel safe" to start Vargas, but at the end of the year you're leaving 100 IP on your bench of a guy with elite ratios.  Unless you're psychic and can sit him for every bad game, you're likely sitting more good stat lines than bad ones, and one could argue you're still better off to start a 2.18 ERA SP vs. HOU than a 3.50 ERA SP vs. anybody else.

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I'm not on either of their level, but I had written this up earlier tonight, so figured I'd respond:   BUYING. Proven depth piece with surprising upside.    Sure, small sample size

I agree his ERA and HR/FB% are both going up, obviously, because they are ridiculously low.  But I wouldn't be too dismissive of Vargas based on xFIP / SIERA.  There's another guy in the AL that is a

When a guy has an FIP/XFIP/SEIRA of 0.98/1.98/2.05 over 20 some innings you take notice.   Groundball rate is over 50% and his swinging strike and first strike rate are on par with the best

If you are not starting Vargas you are just being foolish. In 12 starts he has allowed more than 3 ER only ONCE.  

 

12 Starts:

0 ER x 5

1 ER x 2

2 ER x 2

3 ER x 2

6 ER x 1

 

8 QS, 8 Wins, 2.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.29 FIP.

 

The wheels might come off at some point but his peripherals are solid, some cracks, but solid. If you are benching him and missing out on his good starts than his blow ups are going to hurt you more because you never took the benefit of him pitching well. 

 

I think people have reservations because of velocity, if he was throwing 95 everyone would be running him out IMO.

 

I can see benching him after his only blow up earlier this year vs the Yankees to see how he responds, but other than that if you are benching this guy you really are not a very good fantasy player. That's harsh, I know, but it's the truth. 

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He's a set-and-forget arm rest of the way.  He'd need to have 2 consecutive meltdowns to warrant any hesitation on my part.  Not just a rough outing, but 2 full-core meltdowns along the lines of what deGrom put up his past 2 starts (4IP or less w/ >=7ER).

 

2 start week upcoming.  @SF and @LAA.  Cha-ching..

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I can see benching him after his only blow up earlier this year vs the Yankees to see how he responds, but other than that if you are benching this guy you really are not a very good fantasy player. That's harsh, I know, but it's the truth. 

 

Lol, whatever buddy. To each his own. I've never advocated anyone else sitting him or dropping him, just commented on how I've been using him (or not) in a way that's comfortable for me. All the pro-Vargas points being made are totally valid. My hesitancy is rooted in pure risk avoidance (I am extremely conservative when it comes to SPs; I don't feel irrationally about other positions). If I had drafted Vargas, I might feel differently, but he was a waiver wire pick (as he probably was for 95% of us) -- that probably accounts for the different view of him versus other top 12 pitchers (well that plus the pitches that look like he's throwing BP). I always feel like it's 11:59 and he's about to turn back into a pumpkin. I get that the stats and his showings so far don't prove that, but there it is. So why hold him? Two reasons: to start him when I'm comfortable doing so, and to prevent another owner with more cojones than me from using him :)

 

But thanks for being so concerned about my fantasy managing skills.

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  • 4 weeks later...
59 minutes ago, vtecnyg said:

Can this guy get some love? 12-3 with a 2.22ERA, 5th most points scored by starters in my Leauge. Waiver wire pick up of the year?

I picked him up and flipped him a month ago for a bad Tanaka because I wanted the extra K's. Looks like it might have been a win-win deal as Tanaka is starting to come around.

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  • 3 weeks later...
4 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

He's been cheating death a long time this year guys.... hope none of you ran him out there. Ride is over with

why wouldn't we have ran him out there tonight - he was pitching well. up until last game.  Was there something about this particular matchup that worried you?

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Just now, JetsAwesome said:

why wouldn't we have ran him out there tonight - he was pitching well. up until last game.  Was there something about this particular matchup that worried you?

Yeah; the Tigers murder lefties. And I've read some statistics about him that simply cannot continue; I'll find it somewhere but his 1-2-3 inning % or something is like ungodly high. He's going to go back to being mostly Jason Vargas. Gave us a really good half season

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2 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Yeah; the Tigers murder lefties. And I've read some statistics about him that simply cannot continue; I'll find it somewhere but his 1-2-3 inning % or something is like ungodly high. He's going to go back to being mostly Jason Vargas. Gave us a really good half season

So do you think he's completely done(droppable) or a matchup play at this point?  Hard to drop after 2 bad outings but I don't feel comfortable starting him in any matchup anymore!

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25 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

He's been cheating death a long time this year guys.... hope none of you ran him out there. Ride is over with

Vargas has 100+ innings of sub 3 era and you come out saying "hope no one ran him out there"? You must be joking. Oh wait.... he's got a home run problem. 

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1 hour ago, Stutin said:

He was dropped in my league, are these past 2 games foreshadowing the rest of the season? I was looking to trade for him just recently

 

I don't think he will get shelled like that in every game rest of season but his floor was on full display.

 

If he goes every 5 games through end of Aug he'll face CHW, @BOS, @BAL, STL, @CHW, CLE, COL.  I'd stream him vs CHW, STL and @CHW.  I'd hesitate to run him @BAL & COL and I'd for sure bench @BOS & CLE.

 

If he recovers some value vs CHW this weekend I'd be looking to sell for whatever I could get.  It's much more likely to get really ugly from here on.

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