Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Aaron Hicks 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Folarin said:

Yeah that's for sure. With Jacoby's tendency to take a while to come back, I don't expect to see him until post ASB so if Hicks excels over the next 6 weeks, I can see the job being his.

 

If it takes him that long to come back then I like the odds of this happening if Hicks can continue to play like he is. Being as this is a concussion and not like the other muscle/joint injuries Ellsbury has had and taken a long time to recover from in the past I could easily see him coming back in a week or two. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 233
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Just now, BostonCajun said:

 

If it takes him that long to come back then I like the odds of this happening if Hicks can continue to play like he is. Being as this is a concussion and not like the other muscle/joint injuries Ellsbury has had and taken a long time to recover from in the past I could easily see him coming back in a week or two. 

I agree with this for sure. The neck sprain might be an issue more then the concussion just based on the scariness of a neck injury. Also depends of severity of concussion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Folarin said:

I agree with this for sure. The neck sprain might be an issue more then the concussion just based on the scariness of a neck injury. Also depends of severity of concussion.

 

At the very least it gives the Yankees a good excuse to keep him out of the lineup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been digging into his numbers this morning to see if there are underlying stats to support this run he's been on or if now is a good sell high opportunity. Here's what I've found. 

 

He's got his lowest K% and his highest BB% of his career and his ISO (.262, good for 23rd best in the league) and BABIP (.340, good for 34th best in the league) are much higher than they've ever been before. The highest ISO he's had throughout his career was .146 back in 2013 and his highest BABIP was .300 in 2014. Mind you both of these years he only played in 81 and 69 games respectively. He's played in 41 games so far this year so we're dealing with relatively small sample sizes.

 

So I started looking at his batted ball profile to see if that correlated with the massive spike in his ISO and BABIP. He's nearly matched his highest Hard% from 2013 (31%) when he first got his taste in the bigs with a 30.1% rate this year. The big difference between then and now is this time around he's greatly improved his K% and he's getting on base a lot more with his improved BB%. The strange thing is he's traded off some of his Medium% for Soft%. His Medium% is still respectable at 46.6% but he is the 20th worst player in the league for Soft% at 23.3%, which is his higher than his career average by about 4%. His average for Soft% throughout his career is 19.6% and his Medium% is 52.6%. The increase in Hard% is nice to see but I don't like that he's also at his worst in terms of his soft contact numbers.

 

To try and go deeper to see why he's still been so successful even though he is getting a lot of soft contact I looked into his LD%, GB%, and FB%. To my surprise he is just a bit lower than his career averages of 19.1% and 45.5% LD and GB respectively. His FB%, as I expected, was up a bit from his career average of 35.4% but only up to 37% so that's not really a huge spike. 

 

Where he's hitting the ball hasn't changed all that much either. He's still pulling the ball and hitting it to center almost the same as his career averages and he's going oppo slightly more but not a ton to indicate he's hitting around the shift a ton. 

 

The last thing I looked at was his plate discipline. This is where I noticed a major improvement over his previous seasons. He's swinging at a lot fewer pitches outside the zone (17.4% this year vs a career average of 21.4% and 23% the last two seasons). Overall he's actually swinging at a lot fewer pitches as a whole which directly correlates to his improved walk rate and OBP this year; two things that have helped him be the guy he is. 

 

Prediction:

I think the walk rate and OBP are real as it seems like he's made a major effort to be more selective at the plate. This is good for his counting stats especially if he moves to the top of the lineup, which we've seen at times this year. With the great OBP I could see him reaching close to 20 SB. In terms of his power numbers I don't think he'll continue this pace but I do feel like 16-18 are possible given his improved FB% and Hard%, with 20 not being out of the question. I am a bit concerned with the career high in soft contact but the good thing is that doesn't come with a career high in GB%. After looking into all of this I feel like I'm going to explore my options and see what kind of interest he might generate on the trading block but I would be just fine keeping him and riding the wave. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I've been digging into his numbers this morning to see if there are underlying stats to support this run he's been on or if now is a good sell high opportunity. Here's what I've found. 

 

Great stuff. Any changes in launch angle? Seems to be the hot metric this season.

 

My larger concern is Girardi sitting him a few games a week when Ellsbury is back...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

Great stuff. Any changes in launch angle? Seems to be the hot metric this season.

 

My larger concern is Girardi sitting him a few games a week when Ellsbury is back...

 

I haven't looked at launch angle. To be honest I'm still new to analyzing these sort of stats. Do you have a good source for launch angle stats?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

@BostonCajun he has 7 sb in 1/3 of the season playing part time. I think he could be 30 pace guy with regular playing time.

 

Yeah I underestimated how many steals he could contribute. 30 does sound doable if he can stay in the starting lineup all year. With Ellsbury having more symptoms from the concussion the chances of Hicks getting full time at bats for the rest of the season just got a whole lot better. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...