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Cody Bellinger 2017 Outlook


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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

I have no argument with that.  Just because you mentioned something doesn't mean that the other person is evaluating the players on the same metrics you are.

He said that Bellinger is better than both in all stats (after criticizing me for only using fantasy stats), which isn't even close to being true.

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5 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

He said that Bellinger is better than both in all stats (after criticizing me for only using fantasy stats), which isn't even close to being true.

I didn't say all the stats the only stat they are beating him in is batting avg, he is ahead in home runs and rbi ahead of Turner in runs scored and only 6 runs behind Seager with 11 less games played he also had more stolen bases , the most important thing is the Dodgers were 9-11 when he got called yp and Turner was out for a while and they didn't miss a beat while he was out but they languished before Cody got there. I never said he would win MVP i'm pretty sure Harper will but he is the MVP on the Dodgers offense, maybe the whole team depending on how much time Kershaw misses

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2 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

This is patently false. Stop posting things that everyone knows are untrue.

That's exactly what i said he is better in every other stat other than Batting avg show me where i said otherwise, you can't cause its not there

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The award is the Most Valuable Player. Because of the title of the award, I believe that Bellinger will get more votes than he would have simply based on statistics alone. Statistically speaking, Bellinger has had a fine season...2nd in HR and tied for 10th in RBI in the NL despite playing fewer games than those ahead of him. He's 7th in OPS. The question is how valuable he is and has been to the Dodgers in combination with his statistical numbers. When Bellinger was recalled, LAD was 9-11. Since then, they've gone 71-22. Now obviously, it's not just Bellinger who is responsible for the success of the Dodgers, but he appears to have been a large part of their it. So when assessing who is worthy of the Most Valuable Player award, I believe Bellinger has definitely (and rightfully) inserted his name into the discussion. I believe the argument can be made that he has made as much of an impact on the success of his team as any player in the league today. Jmho. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

The award is the Most Valuable Player. Because of the title of the award, I believe that Bellinger will get more votes than he would have simply based on statistics alone. Statistically speaking, Bellinger has had a fine season...2nd in HR and tied for 10th in RBI in the NL despite playing fewer games than those ahead of him. He's 7th in OPS. The question is how valuable he is and has been to the Dodgers in combination with his statistical numbers. When Bellinger was recalled, LAD was 9-11. Since then, they've gone 71-22. Now obviously, it's not just Bellinger who is responsible for the success of the Dodgers, but he appears to have been a large part of their it. So when assessing who is worthy of the Most Valuable Player award, I believe Bellinger has definitely (and rightfully) inserted his name into the discussion. I believe the argument can be made that he has made as much of an impact on the success of his team as any player in the league today. Jmho. 

I agree with everything you said but i think Harper will win the MVP with Cody 2nd IMHO

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37 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I agree with everything you said but i think Harper will win the MVP with Cody 2nd IMHO

 

Very possible. I don't think Bellinger wins the MVP, but I do believe his name is firmly in the discussion. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

The award is the Most Valuable Player. Because of the title of the award, I believe that Bellinger will get more votes than he would have simply based on statistics alone. Statistically speaking, Bellinger has had a fine season...2nd in HR and tied for 10th in RBI in the NL despite playing fewer games than those ahead of him. He's 7th in OPS. The question is how valuable he is and has been to the Dodgers in combination with his statistical numbers. When Bellinger was recalled, LAD was 9-11. Since then, they've gone 71-22. Now obviously, it's not just Bellinger who is responsible for the success of the Dodgers, but he appears to have been a large part of their it. So when assessing who is worthy of the Most Valuable Player award, I believe Bellinger has definitely (and rightfully) inserted his name into the discussion. I believe the argument can be made that he has made as much of an impact on the success of his team as any player in the league today. Jmho. 

In baseball, you can more or less gauge a batter's offensive performance with correct use of certain statistics. Defense, not so much. Just as in any team sport, attributing win-loss records to an individual player is a farce. Chris Taylor has been every bit as valuable as Cody to the Dodgers, and he was called up at the same time. Shocking that I haven't heard his name in this discussion /s

 

azeri seems to think I'm making an argument based on batting average, which is completely wrong (again). But for what it's worth, the last player to win the NL MVP with Cody's .267 (which is exactly the number he won it with) batting average was in 1944. The third best player on a team is not winning the MVP. They've been more productive offensively and defensively, and if they don't all cannibalize each other for votes (which is more likely than not) then one of the two would win it.

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

In baseball, you can more or less gauge a batter's offensive performance with correct use of certain statistics. Defense, not so much. Just as in any team sport, attributing win-loss records to an individual player is a farce. Chris Taylor has been every bit as valuable as Cody to the Dodgers, and he was called up at the same time. Shocking that I haven't heard his name in this discussion /s

 

azeri seems to think I'm making an argument based on batting average, which is completely wrong (again). But for what it's worth, the last player to win the NL MVP with Cody's .267 (which is exactly the number he won it with) batting average was in 1944. The third best player on a team is not winning the MVP. They've been more productive offensively and defensively, and if they don't all cannibalize each other for votes (which is more likely than not) then one of the two would win it.

 

This is absolutely false.. Bellinger completely transformed the lineup by adding a big time power hitter that the lineup was severely lacking. I don't care what WAR, WRC, UZR, etc says. Bellinger brought excitement to the team and the team played completely different after he was called up. 

 

You take Chris Taylor out of the lineup and replace him with a guy like Alex Verdugo and you probably have a small to mid drop off (verdugo plays plus D and can hit, get on base).. You take Bellinger out of that lineup and replace him with....? That's a HUGE drop off.. That's where in the value lies.. So I don't buy that "Chris Taylor is every bit as valuable as Bellinger" at all.. regardless of whatever stats your basing your statement off of. Bellinger adds value in ways you can't measure through statistics.. 

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4 minutes ago, JenksDodger said:

the team played completely different after he was called up. 

Right, the team played completely different after Chris Taylor was called up.

 

There are a number of reasons why you can't attribute team success solely to Bellinger. That argument is swiss cheese. 

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

Right, the team played completely different after Chris Taylor was called up.

 

There are a number of reasons why you can't attribute team success solely to Bellinger. That argument is swiss cheese. 

 

By your fangraphs statistics? Sorry man, the statement that he's every bit as valuable as Cody Bellinger is actually laughable. 

 

Again, you take Taylor out replace him with Verdugo.. Take Bellinger out and replace him with.....? Adrian Gonzalez? You tell me where the bigger drop off is going to be. Is that not value added to you? Or since it's not measured by a fangraph statistic, it doesn't count? 

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Just now, JenksDodger said:

 

By your fangraphs statistics? Sorry man, the statement that he's every bit as valuable as Cody Bellinger is actually laughable. 

 

Again, you take Taylor out replace him with Verdugo.. Take Bellinger out and replace him with.....? Adrian Gonzalez? You tell me where the bigger drop off is going to be. Is that not value added to you? Or since it's not measured by a fangraph statistic, it doesn't count? 

You have your opinion, I have mine. Bellinger can't play 6 positions, that's not measured in "my" Fangraphs statistics either. What isn't much of an opinion is saying that he's more valuable than Seager or Turner. That's flimsy at best.

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6 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Right, the team played completely different after Chris Taylor was called up.

 

There are a number of reasons why you can't attribute team success solely to Bellinger. That argument is swiss cheese. 

 

Like the argument or not, it's a part of the equation. Always has been. How many MVPs have been on last place teams? An MVP is someone who has been considered to be a large part of his team's success, playoff run, championship, etc. Whether you agree with it or not is one thing, but you cannot disagree that it's part of the decision process. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

Like the argument or not, it's a part of the equation. Always has been. How many MVPs have been on last place teams? An MVP is someone who has been considered to be a large part of his team's success, playoff run, championship, etc. Whether you agree with it or not is one thing, but you cannot disagree that it's part of the decision process. 

Sure. But it's also an argument in favor of Seager and Turner, so

 

LAURA-LET%C2%B4S-CIRCLE-UP-2014-12-08.jp

 

 

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Sure. But it's also an argument in favor of Seager and Turner, so

 

LAURA-LET%C2%B4S-CIRCLE-UP-2014-12-08.jp

 

 

 

That's not my point. I'm not arguing in favor of Bellinger. My point is that you're dismissing that factor because your opinion is it's nonsense, but you cannot because it is a factor in many of the people who do make the decision. So whether you agree with it or not, it is part of the equation. And Bellinger's name will be firmly in the discussion because of the Dodgers' record since he was called up, whether you believe he was the main factor in that record or not. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

That's not my point. I'm not arguing in favor of Bellinger. My point is that you're dismissing that factor because your opinion is it's nonsense, but you cannot because it is a factor in many of the people who do make the decision. So whether you agree with it or not, it is part of the equation. And Bellinger's name will be firmly in the discussion because of the Dodgers' record since he was called up, whether you believe he was the main factor in that record or not. 

You know who really wins the MVP most years, in the majors and in every other league? The best player on the best team. Bellinger is not that player. It's a factor, but it's a small (and inherently flawed, for what it's worth) one. If people are voting today he'd end up behind both Turner and Seager, and we're not even talking about players that are on other teams. He's not a contender for the award. Enjoy what you have, don't be ridiculous.

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Just now, miasma16 said:

You know who really wins the MVP most years, in the majors and in every other league? The best player on the best team. Bellinger is not that player. It's a factor, but it's a small (and inherently flawed, for what it's worth) one. If people are voting today he'd end up behind both Turner and Seager, and we're not even talking about players that are on other teams. He's not a contender for the award. Enjoy what you have, don't be ridiculous.

 

If you think he's not in the discussion, you're not listening. I've heard it discussed on ESPN and MLB Network. It they're talking about it, then so are others. And if you think the baseball writers are voting for either Turner or Seager over Bellinger, then you are simply not listening.

 

Retort with whatever argument you want, because I'm leaving this argument with you at this point. One thing I've noticed on this forum is that you like to get into whatever argument you can. You argue more than almost anyone on this forum, and it often feels as though you seek out the arguments. I've stated my points, and I'm moving on. 

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Current NL MVP Odds (from https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook):

 

  Bryce Harper (WSH)   -145  
  Kris Bryant (CHC)   +10000  
  Corey Seager (LAD)   +3300  
  Anthony Rizzo (CHC)   +10000  
  Nolan Arenado (COL)   +450  
  Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)   +250  
  Justin Turner (LAD)   +2500  
  Ryan Zimmerman (WSH)   +20000  
  Daniel Murphy (WSH)   +10000  
  Charlie Blackmon (COL)   +3300  
  Joey Votto (CIN)   +3300  
  Anthony Rendon (WSH)   +2500  
  Cody Bellinger (LAD)  

+3300

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Bellinger (and I love him) - 5 SB = Justin Smoak. Stats are meaningful. He's light a few WAR for that award.

 

I think some journalists will roll with the "kid was just the shot in the arm that team needed" narrative. But not enough of them 'cause true or not, it smells like spin. If LA wins 110 games I like Turner better with the "glue guy" blue collar schtick. (You vote for the guy you want to have a beer with over the guy you want to trip balls and smash mailboxes with).

 

Otherwise it's a three way race between Harper, Goldy and Arenado. Cody's in the conversation if and only if he wins the MLB home run crown.

 

(And isn't Kershaw the most valuable Dodger anyway, for pitching them into the position where they can rest Kershaw?)

Edited by bdy1
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13 hours ago, bdy1 said:

Bellinger (and I love him) - 5 SB = Justin Smoak. Stats are meaningful. He's light a few WAR for that award.

 

I think some journalists will roll with the "kid was just the shot in the arm that team needed" narrative. But not enough of them 'cause true or not, it smells like spin. If LA wins 110 games I like Turner better with the "glue guy" blue collar schtick. (You vote for the guy you want to have a beer with over the guy you want to trip balls and smash mailboxes with).

 

Otherwise it's a three way race between Harper, Goldy and Arenado. Cody's in the conversation if and only if he wins the MLB home run crown.

 

(And isn't Kershaw the most valuable Dodger anyway, for pitching them into the position where they can rest Kershaw?)

 

I think this statement is pretty far off base. Justin Smoak is not a guy that can play in the outfield nor does he provide above average D at 1B. In fantasy, ok maybe you can make that argument.. certainly not outside of fantasy. Justin Smoak is also 30 years old compared to a guy that just came into the league, whom is 8yrs younger.. They are not equal, or close to it, IMO. 

 

Sure stats are meaningful but there is a lot more that goes into it than just pulling stats off of fangraphs. 

 

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3 hours ago, JenksDodger said:

 

I think this statement is pretty far off base.  

 

Yeah scrolling back I don't see anyone saying "Bellinger is MVP" - just "in the discussion" stuff, which is true enough. If you say Honorable Mention and I say he ain't winning that MVP trophy, then we agree. So I stand corrected for walking a straw man into a pie fight. Not my intention and never a smart thing to do.

 

But don't knock the season Smoak is having. It's been inspiring after so many frustrating years. The only thing keeping him out of that same honorable mention tier is pitching: Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano peeing all over his "Harold Reynolds says I'm MVP" parade. 

 

18 hours ago, JenksDodger said:

Take Bellinger out and replace him with ...?

 

Smoak?

 

In a world without Cody (perish the thought) A-Gon to Tor for Smoak last April would put LA around 80 wins. 30+ bombs in the middle of that lineup, with that pitching ... it's not like they need him to fill in at OF with their organizational depth. That kinda contribution from an imported journeyman can be a real wake up call for a struggling team of high paid superstars. 

 

3 hours ago, JenksDodger said:

...there is a lot more that goes into it than just pulling stats off of fangraphs. 

 

This is not a nice thing to say. 

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The thing with MVP is it means different things to different people. Not everyone agrees what and who a MVP is and why. Not to get off-topic with other players, but when many are screaming Harper for MVP, my vote would go to Mad Max. How often has the Nats road that horse this season with no bullpen?  Many will argue Kershaw is the MVP of the Dodgers. As of August 8th - Overall, the Dodgers are 49 – 15 with out Clayton Kershaw over the past two years. So, how valuable is Kershaw to the Dodgers?  So, one could make an argument the Dodger bullpen as MVP? I mean, there's a lot of good with the Dodgers just with less hype.  I understand it is in simple terms what MVP means, but boy, do opinions vary on who and why...This thread is a good example. 

 

Arenado has been awesome this season as usual, but ponder for a second how valuable Holland has been to the Rockies this season. 

 

Just making a case how one can see MVP in a different perspective, and have a valid argument.

 

Pardon me if I got a little off-topic..:)

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1 hour ago, bdy1 said:

Yeah scrolling back I don't see anyone saying "Bellinger is MVP" - just "in the discussion" stuff, which is true enough. If you say Honorable Mention and I say he ain't winning that MVP trophy, then we agree. So I stand corrected for walking a straw man into a pie fight. Not my intention and never a smart thing to do.

 

But don't knock the season Smoak is having. It's been inspiring after so many frustrating years. The only thing keeping him out of that same honorable mention tier is pitching: Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano peeing all over his "Harold Reynolds says I'm MVP" parade. 

 

 

Smoak?

 

In a world without Cody (perish the thought) A-Gon to Tor for Smoak last April would put LA around 80 wins. 30+ bombs in the middle of that lineup, with that pitching ... it's not like they need him to fill in at OF with their organizational depth. That kinda contribution from an imported journeyman can be a real wake up call for a struggling team of high paid superstars. 

 

This is not a nice thing to say. 

 

I'm not knocking Smoak at all.. He's been great this year. I'm more or less advocating the different ways in which Bellinger adds value than Smoak does.. In defense (mainly).. Both have been explosive this year and both were all-stars, rightfully so. 

 

Replace Bellinger with Smoak? On the Dodgers? :D I was talking about Bellinger being more valuable than Chris Taylor because you could replace Taylor with Alex Verdugo.. and there is hardly anyone that they could replace Bellinger with right now... I guess Chase Utley..

Edited by JenksDodger
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