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Leonard Fournette 2017 Outlook


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11 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Is anyone else worried about a rotation with ivory and yeldon? Or at the least ivory getting short yardage work and yeldon getting passing work? Especially with fournette missing almost all of preseason

 

Teams don't draft monster RB's at #4 to rotate them with aging veterans or disappointing youngsters.  Those guys will be on the field only when necessary.

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3 hours ago, JSA2422 said:

 

how is he supposed to get 300 touches if he can't make it through preseason though... just poking fun at the logic .. ^_^

They even said as soon as it happened that they're just being cautious with him.  Shows how important he is to them.

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I don't think anyone is questioning Fournette's importance to the Jags.  Taking him at #4, kinda speaks for itself.  However, I just tend to think, given his violent running style, most are wondering how he's gonna hold up physically, over the course of a season.

Edited by Goatstain3
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Give me the elite talent in a mediocre situation any day. I think this guy will be the goal line back, and the Jaguars should have a strong defense and probably minimal passing TD's. I'm not necessarily questioning the health. He is the guy.

 

BTW- McCaffrey is currently neck and neck with Fournette, causing Fournette's ADP to fall into the late 2nd / early 3rd. How could you not?

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Only 7 teams scored less than the Jags last season.  Unless you can demonstrate that Henne is a definite upgrade over Bortles (I am open minded about that), how much opportunity to succeed is Fournette really going to have?  

 

No offensive player in JAX has significant upside.  That is simply a fact of life right now.  So if you draft any of them, you are forfeiting the chance to own one of the handful of surprise performers that emerge every year.  As long as Fournette hangs out in a draft range occupied by lots of players with a legitimate chance to breakout, he won't be my pick, and through no fault of his own.

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13 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Only 7 teams scored less than the Jags last season.  Unless you can demonstrate that Henne is a definite upgrade over Bortles (I am open minded about that), how much opportunity to succeed is Fournette really going to have?  

 

No offensive player in JAX has significant upside.  That is simply a fact of life right now.  So if you draft any of them, you are forfeiting the chance to own one of the handful of surprise performers that emerge every year.  As long as Fournette hangs out in a draft range occupied by lots of players with a legitimate chance to breakout, he won't be my pick, and through no fault of his own.

 

So you put no weight into new management and coaching staff?  Marrone had the #2 rushing team in his last gig.  Has said he would ideally like to run the ball every play.  He takes over as JAX coach week 16, and team runs for 182 yards a week later.  They bring in Coughlin, a known run-first guy, to run the organization.  He brings in his longtime O-line coach, the guy with six top-10 rushing teams and four 1000 yd rushers.  Then he uses the #4 pick on a monster RB.  I would venture that no other RB in his draft range has more of a breakout chance than Fournette.

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6 minutes ago, rahuLL said:

What are some projections based on his opponents this year?  Is he anywhere close to Zeke as a rookie? He's one of the most common guys in my mock drafts in the second round. 

 

Based on fantasy points allowed to RBs last year, JAX has the 5th easiest schedule in the league.

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I'm risk averse, foot injuries are no bueno, especially lingering long term ones. He's been dealing with this foot issue for as long as I can remember.

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33 minutes ago, Trifecta said:

I'm risk averse, foot injuries are no bueno, especially lingering long term ones. He's been dealing with this foot issue for as long as I can remember.

It was my understanding that he got stepped on in a practice a couple weeks back. Is that not the case? Is this some kind of carry over from his foot issues in college? 

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13 minutes ago, The G Man said:

It was my understanding that he got stepped on in a practice a couple weeks back. Is that not the case? Is this some kind of carry over from his foot issues in college? 

 

Possibly, I didn't hear about that and have read it's the same foot that caused him issues at LSU, but now you have me questioning that.

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This whole "stepped on his toe" thing seems to have originated with Gruden on the broadcast of last week's game.  He missed his first practice on Aug 13, so it's been 11 days and counting.  He probably won't play next week, but his practice habits will tell the story.

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You're talking about a team that lost Dante Fowler Jr his rookie season to a torn ACL in minicamp.  They lost Jalen Ramsey for a significant amount of time his rookie year to a torn meniscus.  They are being overly cautious with the rookie running back, as they even said so.

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This is the only thing I could fine to corroborate the "stepped on foot" claim I heard (and yeah, I think it was Gruden on MNF). 

 

http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/leonard-fournette/7749

 

My thing is if it's unrelated to the chronic ankle problems he apparently had in college, it shouldn't impact his draft status...right? 

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Admittedly, I don't watch college football for reasons nobody cares about. All of my NFL rookie scouting comes from reading scouting reports, articles, fantasy forums, and watching video. 

 

After watching video of Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon, and considering their respective situations, Fournette concerns me the most.  His power and strength jump off the screen, but so do the gaping holes he's usually running through. Once he gets a head of steam, the guy is a monster. But, what if the JAX o-line can't provide those same running lanes? It's going to be quite a feat considering nobody fears their passing game. Fournette is going to be facing stacked fronts every single week. 

 

Conversely, Cook, McCaffrey, and Mixon appear far more nimble, agile, elusive, etc. They can make something out of nothing, whereas Fournette needs help to do his damage. The other three are also better prepared to play roles in the passing game, whereas Fournette hasn't honed those skills to the same extent.

 

None of them are in ideal situations, though Fournette's is clearly the worst. I don't know, Fournette seems to be almost universally considered the best of the bunch, but I'd lean toward ranking him 4th of the bunch in terms of projected NFL success in the short term. That said, most of those singing his praises know more than I do about all of these guys. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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3 minutes ago, brosephd said:

seems available to me for late 2nd but I don't know if he is worth the risk vs. guys like Gurley, Gronk, Baldwin, Cooks who seem to be available. 

 

Personally I'd take Gurley, gronk, then baldwin before him. Cook and fournette are kinda equal in my eyes. I'm concerned with fournettes foot injury lingering although they say it's not serious...not playing at all is not good

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On 8/23/2017 at 3:46 PM, Chardo said:

 

So you put no weight into new management and coaching staff?  Marrone had the #2 rushing team in his last gig.  Has said he would ideally like to run the ball every play.  He takes over as JAX coach week 16, and team runs for 182 yards a week later.  They bring in Coughlin, a known run-first guy, to run the organization.  He brings in his longtime O-line coach, the guy with six top-10 rushing teams and four 1000 yd rushers.  Then he uses the #4 pick on a monster RB.  I would venture that no other RB in his draft range has more of a breakout chance than Fournette.

 

Every coach says they want to run the ball on every play. Then you get into third-and-six and Chad Henne is your quarterback, so you're boned. They can't feed their running back if they're punting.

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1 hour ago, ManateeSheriff said:

 

Every coach says they want to run the ball on every play. Then you get into third-and-six and Chad Henne is your quarterback, so you're boned. They can't feed their running back if they're punting.

 

JAX knows their QBs are terrible. I imagine the idea was, and is, to center the offense around Fournette. If they can do so successfully, and Fournette does what they expect him to do, there wouldn't be a lot of 3rd & 6's. 

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I posted recently that of Cook, McC, Mixon, and Fournette, that Fournette concerns me the most. I'm starting to warm up to him a bit after learning he faces the 5th easiest s.o.s vs RBs.

 

That, paired with him having the most clearly defined workload is hard to overlook. Even if JAX doesn't win many games, the offense is going to revolve around Fournette, and though he'll be facing stacked fronts constantly he may just be big and powerful enough to find success in spite of it, given the amount of carries he'll likely get. If he can break through the walls in front of him, he has the speed to make the defense pay for creeping up, and the occasional big run can make up for lots of unsuccessful ones. Also, of those 4 rookies, Fournette is the only one who is the favorite for goal line carries, and obviously we know how important TD's are in fantasy. 

 

Another factor clearly in Fournette's favor is that of those 4 rookies, he's the only one that really doesn't have a threat of being part of a committee, which is huge in today's fantasy landscape. If Fournette is getting twice as many touches as the other guys on a weekly basis, it would be very unlikely he'd be outscored by them fantasy-wise, even if he's on the worst team.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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Fournette def has the talent, but Jax offense is brutal; they will be stacking the box all day; and I still feel like they are going to have Yeldon and Ivory mixed in there; Just a bad landing spot for him unfortunately.  

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