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Corey Davis Season Outlook 2017


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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

You continuously act like i say things that i dont.

I never said a amari was a generational talent, never said it about Henry either.

I did say Henry is better than Murray at this point in their careers and i still believe that.

Methinks you dont know what generational means.

generation

[jen-uh-rey-shuh n]

noun

the entire body of individuals born and living at about the same time.

the term of years, roughly 30 among human beings, accepted as the average period between the birth of parents and the birth of their offspring.

You named several "generational talents" AB, AJG, JJ. In football terms you could judge the term "generational" as approximately 10 years since thats close to average for an nfl career lifespan. So, bu deductive reasoning we have a once in 10 year talent in corey davis? I can name several receivers who will be better than corey davis for the next 10 years so a generational talent could be a stretch. 

Terrell Owens is a generational talent

Julio Jones is a generational talent.

Ya know, 1st ballot HOF type of guys.

 

I love your posts. Always interesting and said with conviction. I'd like to hire you at my website Sports Festival. Unfortunately it doesn't exist yet. 

I missed where you stand on Corey Davis though? Are you a "truther" or in the "he's getting too much hype" frame of mind? 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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17 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

he's getting too much hype

I'm on this side for now. We have the MAC tape on the one hand, and the Week 1 tape on the other.
Week 1 is the real deal, where we saw:

- 1 good high catch for good yardage, no yards after contact

- 1 short catch where he made three guys miss but got very little progress
- 1 more catch without progress
- 1 short catch where he got 7 yards after catching, well done
- 2 miss/incomplete/

- 1 quick out of bounds
- 1 short catch with 2 yds extra

- 1 incomplete
box score: 10 targets (I missed one it seems), 6 receptions, 69 yards.

My analysis: The Titans really really like this kid. His main results though came on the first 2 throws where the opposing team seemed to think he was just this minor college kid; once they upgraded him to proper WR status, he got 4 for 8 for around 40 yds. That's not bad for a start, but it's not superstar status either.

My prognosis: he will get there. This is a talent, that's clear. But between Mariota being meh, Ten being more of a running team, him for the first time getting serious opposition, his hamstring, etc, I think it may be 2018 (or 2019) before he really shows greatness (if no serious injuries of course). 

Leave/Grab/Bench/Start: I'm playing the chicken game with the other owners and wait at least until after week 8. I think one of the others in my leagues will grab him first; he's a bigger priority in my 14-team league than in my 10-teamer, where the waiver still has sufficient talent. In the 14-team league I would probably grab him if I hadn't already DJ being deadweight. Once I do manage to grab him though, I'll bench him for at least 1 week to see whether my analysis is correct.

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2 hours ago, Beerdown said:

I feel like the hype is too high for this guy. 

 

I'm spending $7 in faab to make sure I get him tomorrow.

 

I expect a breakout like OBJ or Gordon starting week 9.  Otherwise you people have failed me.

 

 

 

The hype for me is for 2018, lol. I will be keeping him as a 10th round keeper, and I have high expectations for him next season...provided he can stay healthy. 

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53 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm on this side for now. We have the MAC tape on the one hand, and the Week 1 tape on the other.
Week 1 is the real deal, where we saw:

- 1 good high catch for good yardage, no yards after contact

- 1 short catch where he made three guys miss but got very little progress
- 1 more catch without progress
- 1 short catch where he got 7 yards after catching, well done
- 2 miss/incomplete/

- 1 quick out of bounds
- 1 short catch with 2 yds extra

- 1 incomplete
box score: 10 targets (I missed one it seems), 6 receptions, 69 yards.

My analysis: The Titans really really like this kid. His main results though came on the first 2 throws where the opposing team seemed to think he was just this minor college kid; once they upgraded him to proper WR status, he got 4 for 8 for around 40 yds. That's not bad for a start, but it's not superstar status either.

My prognosis: he will get there. This is a talent, that's clear. But between Mariota being meh, Ten being more of a running team, him for the first time getting serious opposition, his hamstring, etc, I think it may be 2018 (or 2019) before he really shows greatness (if no serious injuries of course). 

Leave/Grab/Bench/Start: I'm playing the chicken game with the other owners and wait at least until after week 8. I think one of the others in my leagues will grab him first; he's a bigger priority in my 14-team league than in my 10-teamer, where the waiver still has sufficient talent. In the 14-team league I would probably grab him if I hadn't already DJ being deadweight. Once I do manage to grab him though, I'll bench him for at least 1 week to see whether my analysis is correct.

 

This was his first NFL game after minimal training camp.

 

He was great RAC ability, we just didn't get to see it. 

 

Tennessee has a struggling Defense, they will throw the ball a lot, and there isn't much pass catching talent.

 

Top 5 talent that will see a bunch of targets. You grab him and see how it plays out. 

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3 minutes ago, SpartanEric said:

Top 5 talent

Yeah, but that doesn't tell you everything:

 Corey Coleman 

WR

Baylor

1

15(15)

Cleveland

 Will Fuller 

WR

Notre Dame

1

21(21)

Houston

 Josh Doctson 

WR

TCU

1

22(22)

Washington

 Laquon Treadwell 

WR

Ole Miss

1

23(23)

Minnesota

 Sterling Shepard 

WR

Oklahoma

2

9(40)

NY Giants

That's the 2016 top-5. Is any of those going to win your play-offs?

 

Again, I like Davis, I get it, I actually think his talent is probably bigger than these 5 guys, but I will play the waiting game and see how it plays out because I don't think it's only about talent. Different strategies for you and me, which is the fun of FF; good luck to us both ;)


 

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38 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah, but that doesn't tell you everything:

 Corey Coleman 

WR

Baylor

1

15(15)

Cleveland

 Will Fuller 

WR

Notre Dame

1

21(21)

Houston

 Josh Doctson 

WR

TCU

1

22(22)

Washington

 Laquon Treadwell 

WR

Ole Miss

1

23(23)

Minnesota

 Sterling Shepard 

WR

Oklahoma

2

9(40)

NY Giants

That's the 2016 top-5. Is any of those going to win your play-offs?

 

Again, I like Davis, I get it, I actually think his talent is probably bigger than these 5 guys, but I will play the waiting game and see how it plays out because I don't think it's only about talent. Different strategies for you and me, which is the fun of FF; good luck to us both ;)


 

 

I think he means top 5 overall talent.

You look at the last few WRs take in the top 5 picks and its pretty impressive.  I threw in Evans and Julio because they would've been top 5 talent if the other receiver wasn't there.  Other than Braylon and Blackmon, all of them made pretty big impacts in their rookie year.  Not to mention 5 of them will probably be in the HOF.

2014 4 Sammy Watkins

2014 7 Mike Evans

2012 5 Justin Blackmon

2011 4 A.J. Green

2011 6 Julio Jones

2007 2 Calvin Johnson

2005 3 Braylon Edwards

2004 3 Larry Fitzgerald

2003 3 Andre Johnson

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I think Corey will be less impacted by matchups over some WR's because of his route running skills and routes they had him running.  As I understand it he is not going to be their deep ball threat.  This is good because it makes him less susceptible to saftey help over the top and QB pressure.  They had him running crossing routes and hooks that are hard to defend but relatively low impact.  His first catch showed his ability to go up and get a ball on tight coverage that Mariota can place without risking a pick.  And as I understand it he is 'smart' and will be able to react to what D's do to provide his QB an outlet.  Overall I think he'll be a tough guy to 'shut down' but good D's will limit him by limiting his yac.  I do think that he'll be active between the 20's and in the redzone unlike a lot of possession receivers.  If I had to fire him up vs Balt I wouldn't feel to bad about it.

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2 hours ago, RustyMiller said:

I think he means top 5 overall talent.

You look at the last few WRs take in the top 5 picks and its pretty impressive. 

Fair point. Let's look at these absolute studs in their rookie years: (ESPN did not have data for 2004/2003)
 

 

gms

REC

TGTS

YDS

AVG

LNG

2014 4 Sammy Watkins

16

65

128

982

15.1

84

2014 7 Mike Evans

15

68

124

1,051

15.5

56

2012 5 Justin Blackmon

16

64

133

865

13.5

81

2011 4 A.J. Green

16

65

116

1,057

16.3

58

2011 6 Julio Jones

13

54

96

959

17.8

80

2007 2 Calvin Johnson

15

48

95

756

15.8

49

2005 3 Braylon Edwards

10

32

 

512

16

80

 

On average they scored in their rookie years 4.35 receptions off 6.85 targets for 61 yds and .45 TD/game. That's sort of Kevin Benjamin/Devin Funchess material, so around WR25-30. Yeah, I'll take that, but my benches are pretty decent right now, so I'm still holding out until week 9, as much as it may bite me in the derriere.

 

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9 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

I love your posts. Always interesting and said with conviction. I'd like to hire you at my website Sports Festival. Unfortunately it doesn't exist yet. 

I missed where you stand on Corey Davis though? Are you a "truther" or in the "he's getting too much hype" frame of mind? 

 

I like him, certainly want him on my team when he is healthy. 10 targets in his only healthy game? The targets are awesome, so is the lack of depth at wr for tenneessee and their generally inept passing offense needs a spark. Volume is king in ppr fantasy football so i like him more than doctson or golladay but he is coming off a soft tissue injury which can be tricky. I say proceed on the corey davis train if you need wr help.

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8 hours ago, Most Guruist said:

I think Corey will be less impacted by matchups over some WR's because of his route running skills and routes they had him running.  As I understand it he is not going to be their deep ball threat.  This is good because it makes him less susceptible to saftey help over the top and QB pressure.  They had him running crossing routes and hooks that are hard to defend but relatively low impact.  His first catch showed his ability to go up and get a ball on tight coverage that Mariota can place without risking a pick.  And as I understand it he is 'smart' and will be able to react to what D's do to provide his QB an outlet.  Overall I think he'll be a tough guy to 'shut down' but good D's will limit him by limiting his yac.  I do think that he'll be active between the 20's and in the redzone unlike a lot of possession receivers.  If I had to fire him up vs Balt I wouldn't feel to bad about it.

 

This post encourages me greatly.  I must admit, I’m tiring just stashing him. I need players to step up now because some of mine are fading. 

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah, but that doesn't tell you everything:

 Corey Coleman 

WR

Baylor

1

15(15)

Cleveland

 Will Fuller 

WR

Notre Dame

1

21(21)

Houston

 Josh Doctson 

WR

TCU

1

22(22)

Washington

 Laquon Treadwell 

WR

Ole Miss

1

23(23)

Minnesota

 Sterling Shepard 

WR

Oklahoma

2

9(40)

NY Giants

That's the 2016 top-5. Is any of those going to win your play-offs?

 

Again, I like Davis, I get it, I actually think his talent is probably bigger than these 5 guys, but I will play the waiting game and see how it plays out because I don't think it's only about talent. Different strategies for you and me, which is the fun of FF; good luck to us both ;)


 

 

Yah, but none of those guys received 10 targets in their first *game* in the NFL.  I'd bet some on that list have *never* gotten 10 targets in a game. 

 

Also, Davis was the 5th overall pick in the draft, the guys you are listing were picked 15-40.  Big difference.  Teams mortgage their futures to move up to the Top 5.  

 

 

 

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