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Joe Mixon 2017 Outlook


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I wish there was more clarity on his workload.

 

Draft coming up on Wed and I need to know if I should risk taking him in the 3rd over the likes of K.Hunt, Cook, etc.

 

I believe he is more talented but the opportunity for him to do damage on the field is looking cloudy.

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I wouldn't take him in the third round at this time - that changes completely if it turns out that Hill's ankle injury is serious (which it apparently isn't). I've seen him fall in a few drafts though; I was lucky to get him in the 7th in a 10-teamer yesterday (though I am unlucky that he's my RB1!).

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I tend to be very bearish on rookies and I'm avoiding the hype train on guys like McCaffrey and Fournette but I see stars in my eyes when I think about Mixon.  I love his pass catching ability and think he could be an elite runner to boot.  I've only invested serious draft capital (round 5 or earlier) in three rookie RBs in the last decade: Zeke, Gurley, and Doug Martin.  Mixon is my fourth.  The sky feels like the limit.  

 

It is possible that he doesn't have massive touches right away but I think by mid-season he'll have top-5 upside.  Personally I just don't see how they could have invested such a high pick on him given the massive character concerns to use him as a role player.  If you are worried about Hill, you can get him as a handcuff for practically nothing.  

 

But for me it's all about the talent.  The guy just feels like an electric talent to me.  Sure, Lewis could hold him back some.  But if the talent is what I think it is, he will take the reins.  Elite talents don't get held down for long.  This is one guy I'm willing to take some risk on.

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29 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Can anyone give any sort of vote of confidence for this guy?

 

I'm starting to feel like this was a total waste of a 3rd round pick.

I think Mixon is far and away the most talented Bengals RB, but you will hate Jeremy Hill if you don't already. You'll see a scoring alert for the Bengals and have a moment of excitement only to have it crushed when it was Hill scoring.

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If your drafting Mixon, you need to know what you are getting.

 

I selected Mixon because I expect him to be killing it during fantasy playoffs in the lead up to being THE man next year; not with the expectation that he will be the guy from day one.  Don't expect high year end statistics. If you are selecting him, the most ideal scenario is going to be him taking over when it matters the most down the stretch (matters for those of that can sustain a winning lineup until then).


I fully expect him to be a top back when it matters the most.

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3 hours ago, Rizzle630 said:

If your drafting Mixon, you need to know what you are getting.

 

I selected Mixon because I expect him to be killing it during fantasy playoffs in the lead up to being THE man next year; not with the expectation that he will be the guy from day one.  Don't expect high year end statistics. If you are selecting him, the most ideal scenario is going to be him taking over when it matters the most down the stretch (matters for those of that can sustain a winning lineup until then).


I fully expect him to be a top back when it matters the most.

The problem is you are spending a 3rd-5th round pick on him.

 

That is nowhere near where you would take a player that you THINK may take over the role come playoff time and do good. Those players go in triple digit rounds and if they are really good 80+ at best. Mixon is going way too high for his current situation. I already mentioned in the CMC thread that this forum over values players that seemingly have all the talent but are in no situation to succeed. Why would you take Mixon over a guy like Abdullah who is a great post hype candidate in a very solid role and has talent? Makes zero sense other than illogical hype.

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53 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The problem is you are spending a 3rd-5th round pick on him.

 

That is nowhere near where you would take a player that you THINK may take over the role come playoff time and do good. Those players go in triple digit rounds and if they are really good 80+ at best. Mixon is going way too high for his current situation. I already mentioned in the CMC thread that this forum over values players that seemingly have all the talent but are in no situation to succeed. Why would you take Mixon over a guy like Abdullah who is a great post hype candidate in a very solid role and has talent? Makes zero sense other than illogical hype.

 

Some of us play keeper/dynasty and his value in those type of leagues could be incredibly high.  When I think of Mixon I think of DJ and Bell with his size/speed combination, vision/patience and ability in the receiving game.

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22 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Some of us play keeper/dynasty and his value in those type of leagues could be incredibly high.  When I think of Mixon I think of DJ and Bell with his size/speed combination, vision/patience and ability in the receiving game.

That has to be specified. Most people don't play in those formats so making a comment about his ADP when you play in a startup dynasty is misleading.

 

Also, his ADP is still top 40.

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

That has to be specified. Most people don't play in those formats so making a comment about his ADP when you play in a startup dynasty is misleading.

 

Also, his ADP is still top 40.

I'd struggle to take him that early, but if you believe in his talent, pair him up with McFadden or Jacquizz so you can sit on him until he takes over later in the year.

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16 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I'd struggle to take him that early, but if you believe in his talent, pair him up with McFadden or Jacquizz so you can sit on him until he takes over later in the year.

why  not just take hill instead of mcfadden/quizz??? doesnt he offer similar line while he starts and you get a handcuff

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Just now, colepenhagen said:

why  not just take hill??? doesnt he offer similar line while he starts and you get a handcuff

I don't like Hill. :)  It's a good suggestion though, though I would be less for it because CIN plays BAL week 1 (tough matchup, though admittedly I haven't looked at the schedules for DAL or TB yet), and because if I really believe in Mixon, he'll be starting early in the season; I could gamble then I might get more usable weeks out of Jacquizz or especially McFadden. Also, I'm not sure on the TB RB situation, but my understanding is that McFadden will be a three-down back, while Hill has Bernard.

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38 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

why  not just take hill instead of mcfadden/quizz??? doesnt he offer similar line while he starts and you get a handcuff

Why are none of this forum's player threads actually about the players? This board is terrible at straying from the topics themselves.

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There's a pretty good chance with the carry distribution that Mixon will be very underwhelming points-wise in the first few weeks.  That's a good time to try to trade for him.  It's all speculation but I see Mixon as someone who may be very strong during fantasy playoffs.  And I think alot of owners will abandoned ship fairly early. 

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22 minutes ago, mverkruyse said:

What's Mixon's value in a keeper? 

 

I imagine people are drafting him around the 5th round, is he a steal of a value as a 4th round keeper next year, or is that still murky as well?

 

Well we have no idea but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Mixon is a top 15 or 20 player in drafts next year.  Often a rookie will work his way into a role year 1 and be ready to explode in draft value year 2.  Which rookie it is I don't know but I'd be surprised if two of Mixon, Hunt, Cook, McCaffrey, Fournette aren't early 2nd round picks or better next season.

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