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Joe Mixon 2017 Outlook


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2 hours ago, whoopsie said:

 

If you're not playing FAAB then I don't know what you are doing with your life.

 

Not trying to be a FAAB elitist but everyone should be using FAAB by now. It gives everyone equal opportunities to grab a player off the ww. An already stacked team can have a really bad week 1 and then still be able to add the #1 waiver pickup the next week with regular waiver setting (I dont even know what its called anymore). FAAB especially helps later in the season with those teams on the bubble where your team sucks but doesnt suck enough to get a good waiver priority lol.

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A guy named Dixon (which rhymes with Mixon) was supposed to supplant a pedestrian talent in West.

All year people kept waiting and it never happened. Mitch might have great measurable but he is still a rookie with no NFL experience and who posted in a non pro style offense in college. Don't expect an rb1 this year barring an injury to hill and or Gio.

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5 minutes ago, CanaBuc said:

A guy named Dixon (which rhymes with Mixon) was supposed to supplant a pedestrian talent in West.

All year people kept waiting and it never happened. Mitch might have great measurable but he is still a rookie with no NFL experience and who posted in a non pro style offense in college. Don't expect an rb1 this year barring an injury to hill and or Gio.

 

Mixon is no Dixon. 

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Just now, MJJ28 said:

LOL @ making definitive statements about players who have never taken a snap in the league.

"Never taken a snap in the league" pre season bud, wake up. Look at his size and strength and the way he can move like a 99 rated player on Madden. He has what it takes, Lewis just needs to get his head out of his a$$ and get with the program. 

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1 minute ago, MJJ28 said:

LOL @ making definitive statements about players who have never taken a snap in the league.

 

Why are you laughing out loud at the fact people think a second round pick that fell from the first round due to off field issues is a greater talent than Dixon? I don't think that is very funny. 

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32 minutes ago, J.L. Mackie said:

Mixon easily passes the eye test. I can't believe he is that quick and agile while being nearly 230 pounds. After watching some of his runs during the pre-season I bought in. I snagged him in both of my leagues.

Look at this run man. 41 seconds.
 

 

I own him in a couple of leagues and I haven't seen this. That last run was ridiculous. A man his size shouldn't be able to move like that. 

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46 minutes ago, J.L. Mackie said:

Mixon easily passes the eye test. I can't believe he is that quick and agile while being nearly 230 pounds. After watching some of his runs during the pre-season I bought in. I snagged him in both of my leagues.

Look at this run man. 41 seconds.
 

 

 

Looks good. As most drafts are over with by now, it is probably best we start to approach this from a week by week perspective. Given he is currently third on the depth chart, behind two running backs who have had clearly defined roles in the past and appear to have roles beginning this season, what do we project his workload and production to be this week? How many snaps will he take? Do you project his week 1 performance to influence his week 2 usage? Will he receive goal-line touches or passing down/short yardage work?

 

To start it off, I will answer my own questions. I think he's looking at about 8-9 touches for about 35 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards, with a 10% chance of a TD. I envision Baltimore continuing to be a strong rushing defense this year, and I think Cinci will struggle to run the ball as a team. I expect Cinci to run the ball to RBs about 24 times, with 8 carries for Mixon, 10-12 for Hill, and 4-6 for Bernard. I envision Hill getting the majority of the goal-line work, with a chance of Mixon getting 1 crack at it himself, but not the first attempt if the situation presents itself. I predict Bernard will get the majority of the passing down work, as he appears to be locked into that role for the foreseeable future. IMO, there is really no evidence to suggest Mixon is a viable starter this week. I would look to start another player with a guaranteed role. For those who do not own him, I do not see him performing at a level that would make him impossible to acquire in a trade next week. At this time next week, I expect many to be surprised at his relative lack of usage, and his relative trade value to decrease, but not so much that owners are willing to abandon ship yet.

Edited by MJJ28
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4 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Looks good. As most drafts are over with by now, it is probably best we start to approach this from a week by week perspective. Given he is currently third on the depth chart, behind two running backs who have had clearly defined roles in the past and appear to have roles beginning this season, what do we project his workload and production to be this week? How many snaps will he take? Do you project his week 1 performance to influence his week 2 usage? Will he receive goal-line touches or passing down/short yardage work?

 

To start it off, I will answer my own questions. I think he's looking at about 8-9 touches for about 35 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards, with a 10% chance of a TD. I envision Baltimore continuing to be a strong rushing defense this year, and I think Cinci will struggle to run the ball as a team. I expect Cinci to run the ball to RBs about 24 times, with 8 carries for Mixon, 10-12 for Hill, and 4-6 for Bernard. I envision Hill getting the majority of the goal-line work, with a chance of Mixon getting 1 crack at it himself, but not the first attempt if the situation presents itself. I predict Bernard will get the majority of the passing down work, as he appears to be locked into that role for the foreseeable future. IMO, there is really no evidence to suggest Mixon is a viable starter this week. I would look to start another player with a guaranteed role. For those who do not own him, I do not see him performing at a level that would make him impossible to acquire in a trade next week. At this time next week, I expect many to be surprised at his relative lack of usage, and his relative trade value to decrease.

I don't expect him to be playable week 1, but I do expect him to take over the role of starting RB sooner than later considering how awful Jeremy Hill is. Jeremy Hill is exceptionally bad. 

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11 minutes ago, brosephd said:

After seeing Hunt blow up, us owners can only hope Mixon gets the same opportunity as Hunt seeing how his talent is pretty great compared respectively to Hunt. 

 I hope you're right, but there's actually no correlation between the two.

Edited by hubbell525
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13 minutes ago, brosephd said:

After seeing Hunt blow up, us owners can only hope Mixon gets the same opportunity as Hunt seeing how his talent is pretty great compared respectively to Hunt. 

 

It took a significant injury for Hunt to get that chance.  Sometimes you have to get lucky to show that you're good.  

 

 

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48 minutes ago, SpartanEric said:

 

It took a significant injury for Hunt to get that chance.  Sometimes you have to get lucky to show that you're good.  

 

 

Luck is severely underrated by fans. These are leagues comprised entirely of professionals unless you're really exceptional you need a break once in a while for an opportunity.

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Bengals averaged 28 carries per game last year. Should rise up a bit with AJ healthy.

 

I think the staff is going to carefully give Mixon a big shot. 

 

I predict a 50/50 split down the middle on early downs this weekend. If he does well, I honestly don't see them turning back. 

 

Mixon should get around 10-15 touches with upside for more.

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Hill is going to vulture the goal line opportunities. That's my frustration here. Hill may be a definitively average running back, but he consistently gets it done in TD scoring situations.

 

I'm confident Mixon is going to get the ball regularly everywhere else on the field, but Hill is going to eat into his value, regardless of who the superior talent is.

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Just now, fjthegrey said:

Hill is going to vulture the goal line opportunities. That's my frustration here. Hill may be a definitively average running back, but he consistently gets it done in TD scoring situations.

 

I'm confident Mixon is going to get the ball regularly everywhere else on the field, but Hill is going to eat into his value, regardless of who the superior talent is.

Only way I dont see it happening (Hill vultures) is if Mixon just explodes and grabs the job by the throat. If just merely adequate, Hill keeps the GL gig

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ESPN and Roto always will hype up someone that is #2 on a depth chart pre season.  I didn't buy into the hype this year after getting burned by coaches the past couple of years.  I took a flier late on Hill because it seems coaches like to go against what fantasy experts want. 

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Bengals RBs coach Kyle Caskey said Cincinnati will use the hot-hand approach at running back this season.

Figuring out what the Bengals are going to do in the backfield is one of the bigger storylines to watch as we head into Week 1. Jeremy Hill is fully expected to get the start, but it's up for grabs after the first snap. Caskey said the offense worried about getting all the backs touches in the preseason, but it's "more about production and winning" now that the games count. If talent takes precedence, Joe Mixon should run circles around Hill, though Hill will likely be involved in the red zone and at the goal line all season. Mixon is hard to trust as anything more than an RB3 in a tough matchup this week but expect him to take over as the 1A of this backfield sooner rather than later.
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http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2017/09/07/bengals-notes-rb-rotation-wj-3-debut-ross-returns/643869001/

 

Nobody can pin down exactly how the Bengals’ rotation of running backs Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill and Joe Mixon will look in its debut Sunday against Baltimore.

 

The coaching staff stayed understandably tight-lipped and players are adopting the do-what-I’m-asked mentality. Jeremy Hill is listed as the starter and expected to start. Signs point to Giovani Bernard continuing to hold down his role on third downs.

 

What we do know is the team won’t be sacrificing creating a flow in order to distribute the perfect amount of touches. Allowing each player to find a rhythm tops the priority list.

 

“The flow is more important than the touches,” running backs coach Kyle Caskey said. “You see it in the preseason when we are forced to put guys in because we want to get them playing time. We are more worried about touches in the preseason and play numbers and play counts. In the regular season we are more worried about production and winning.”

 

Figuring out early who among the three makes the most impact will be a key part of the rotation equation. A plan exists at first, but from there, variables take over: playmaking, injuries, situations.

 

Hill points out any running back builds confidence the more carries they get, but there’s no denying the area where he has excelled. He’s tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL since 2014 and 21 of his 29 touchdowns came from inside the 5-yard-line. He’s scored a touchdown 46 percent of the time he’s touched the ball inside the 5.

 

“For me, it’s controlling the time of possession for our offense, keeping our defense off the field and scoring in the red zone,” Hill said. “That’s something I can do to help our team in football teams and will continue to do.”

 

What the second-round pick Mixon will do is anybody’s guess, but he offered an encouraging glimpse during an impressive preseason. Mixon carried 20 times for 78 yards and caught three passes for 32 yards.

 

He played off any extra emphasis on his first game this week, claiming it’s “just another game.” Mixon later admitted calling it another game might not be exactly correct, but he’s attempting to keep it low key.

 

“Because that’s just me,” Mixon said.

 

Caskey sees another reason and part of why he feels confident a divided workload won’t rattle the rookie.

 

“Joe is as much as a team player as I’ve been around,” Caskey said. “He really does want to win, he’s also a very confident person in his abilities. In saying it’s just another game, it’s his way of saying he’s approaching it the same way he approaches everything.”

 

We will learn much more about the Bengals approach to this rotation coming out of the opener, but it’s fair to say even the team can’t say for sure how the touches will unfold.

 

“You plan initially for it and try to put guys in the right places for what their talents can do and once the game gets going there is a flow to it,” Caskey said. “If a guy does have a little juice to him at that time then you stick with him.”

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9 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

Bengals RBs coach Kyle Caskey said Cincinnati will use the hot-hand approach at running back this season.

Figuring out what the Bengals are going to do in the backfield is one of the bigger storylines to watch as we head into Week 1. Jeremy Hill is fully expected to get the start, but it's up for grabs after the first snap. Caskey said the offense worried about getting all the backs touches in the preseason, but it's "more about production and winning" now that the games count. If talent takes precedence, Joe Mixon should run circles around Hill, though Hill will likely be involved in the red zone and at the goal line all season. Mixon is hard to trust as anything more than an RB3 in a tough matchup this week but expect him to take over as the 1A of this backfield sooner rather than later.

 Best case is that Hill gets banged up and opens the door wide for Mixon to walk in.

Edited by OrangeCrush
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