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Ty Montgomery 2017 Season Outlook


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3 minutes ago, iheartrubio said:

I couldn’t disagree more.  Everyone is talking about Williams but all I see is Aaron Jones constantly out performing him.  Williams will get the first shot just based on his draft slot but I don’t see him holding off Jones.  Would love to see Jones get some run with the first team because the 1.7 ypc that Williams is touting is pretty damn pathetic. 

 

I like Jones, and need to see him more. Keep in mind it's preseason so the ypc probably isn't a major concern at this point. They are learning the offense and making sure the fundamentals are there. I like both RB's and think Ty needs to stick with receiving and or 3rd down plays. GB plugged a hole with Ty and once they prove that they have true RB's that are effective (which I think they do and are getting there quickly), Ty will be phased out of the RB position. We'll see!

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8 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

The difference is risk. Ty is a bigger risk to lose the job or be involved in a complete committee than Eddie lacy was and even though lacy wasn't good in 2015 people drafted earlier in 2016 because he had less perceived risk to lose the job and had 1 or 2 good years under his belly. If ty does it this year, his adp next year will be lacy like. But there's risk this year...which drops his adp. If he was clean with less risk his adp would be round 2 or 3. 

More like 25 good years under his belly.


I see what you did there.

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1 minute ago, hard1 said:

Where am I? 

 

In a fantasy football forum, where it is commonplace to criticize and critique those that have more skills than all of us combined, in an effort to minimize and deflate a players potential 'fantasy' value. 

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16 minutes ago, hard1 said:

I'm confused dude was awesome in a limited capacity last year. Now he goes into the season as the starter. And it's a negative? Where am I? 

 

For me there isn't enough pointing to him being used in anything more than a limited capacity to justify his ADP, which thankfully appears to be crashing.

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7 minutes ago, hard1 said:

I guess my thing is he was used like half a season and threw up 140 points in a ppr league....now a full season of that same usage health permitted should fall into a 200 point back....and that'll play fantastic...

Counting the playoff games he has been a featured player for 14 games.  He had 54 receptions in that time.  However, 20 of those receptions came in 2 games.  He averaged less than 3 catches per game in the other 12. 

 

He's going to need a good deal more of usage to get to the mark you're predicting.  I think we all know that we cant count on him having a high rushing TD total.  That's not GBs game.  Rodgers is notorious for throwing on the 2 yard line.

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In my league we only play to week 16 and he didn't really start getting run until week 7 and then it was single digit carries for a most of it and he scored 140 points.... his bye week was week 8 so he basically did all his damage in 9 weeks...if he gets another 7 weeks of featured carries and I use featured loosely because in 8 of those 9 he only got single digit carries...he should get another 60 points on accident and easily if he gets a couple more games at double digit carries....dude was efficient...

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7 minutes ago, hard1 said:

In my league we only play to week 16 and he didn't really start getting run until week 7 and then it was single digit carries for a most of it and he scored 140 points.... his bye week was week 8 so he basically did all his damage in 9 weeks...if he gets another 7 weeks of featured carries and I use featured loosely because in 8 of those 9 he only got single digit carries...he should get another 60 points on accident and easily if he gets a couple more games at double digit carries....dude was efficient...

Why are you singling out everything after week 7?  You're counting up his 140 points and acting like he got them all after week 7.  Dude had 20 catches and 230 total yards in weeks 5 and 6.  You're counting that in your totals.  In PPR, that's 43 of his 140 points.  30% of it in 2 games.  After week 7 he only had 97 points.

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16 minutes ago, hard1 said:

In my league we only play to week 16 and he didn't really start getting run until week 7 and then it was single digit carries for a most of it and he scored 140 points.... his bye week was week 8 so he basically did all his damage in 9 weeks...if he gets another 7 weeks of featured carries and I use featured loosely because in 8 of those 9 he only got single digit carries...he should get another 60 points on accident and easily if he gets a couple more games at double digit carries....dude was efficient...

 

We all know GB could use a real 3 down RB, and lots of us really want Ty to be that guy.  But what we want doesn't matter.  What the CS does (with Rodgers' input and blessing in all likelihood) when the running game (invariably) hits a rough patch is all that counts.  

 

I could end up dead wrong, but I am betting that Ty gets thrown under the bus in favor of Williams at the first sign of sustained difficulty.  And here is another dirty secret.  Rodgers breeds difficulty in the run game. Intentionally or unintentionally, Rodgers makes GB a pass first team, leaving the RBs and their positional coaches to fend for themselves as best they can.  As long as Rodgers runs this team, dissatisfaction with the GB run game is going to be a recurring theme.

 

I am not saying for certain that Williams will shine in the opportunity that he is sure (to my mind) receive.  I just hope I'm not depending on Ty to help carry my season when he (Williams) does get his shot.  The boom/bust aspect of Ty's situation is very real, no matter how we view his limited body of work last season, or the coach speak we've been fed this off-season.

     

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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Whoops...Yep my mistake I was just going by when you said featured....those weeks he got like 1 carry...I stand corrected but still weeks 1 thru 4 he didn't get any feature touches....is it still unreasonable to think with another 4 weeks of feature and slight uptick in carries that it's far fetched to get 200 points...that's my argument 

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1 minute ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

We all know GB could use a real 3 down RB, and lots of us really want Ty to be that guy.  But what we want doesn't matter.  What the CS does (with Rodgers' input and blessing in all likelihood) when the running game (invariably) hits a rough patch is all that counts.  I could end up dead wrong, but I am betting that Ty gets thrown under the bus in favor of Williams at the first sign of sustained difficulty.  And here is another dirty secret.  Rodgers breeds difficulty in the run game. Intentionally or unintentionally, Rodgers makes GB a pass first team, leaving the RBs and their positional coaches to fend for themselves as best they can.  As long as Rodgers runs this team, dissatisfaction with the GB run game is going to be recurring theme.

 

I am not saying for certain that Williams will shine in the opportunity that he is sure (to my mind) receive  I just hope I'm not depending on Ty to help carry my season when he (Williams) does get his shot.  The boom/bust aspect of Ty situation is very real, no how we view his limited body of work last season, or the coach speak we've been fed this off-season.     

Agree with all of this...except that williams gets a shot..he has done nothing outside of practice to prove he does....

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14 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

We all know GB could use a real 3 down RB, and lots of us really want Ty to be that guy.  But what we want doesn't matter.  What the CS does (with Rodgers' input and blessing in all likelihood) when the running game (invariably) hits a rough patch is all that counts.  

 

I could end up dead wrong, but I am betting that Ty gets thrown under the bus in favor of Williams at the first sign of sustained difficulty.  And here is another dirty secret.  Rodgers breeds difficulty in the run game. Intentionally or unintentionally, Rodgers makes GB a pass first team, leaving the RBs and their positional coaches to fend for themselves as best they can.  As long as Rodgers runs this team, dissatisfaction with the GB run game is going to be a recurring theme.

 

I am not saying for certain that Williams will shine in the opportunity that he is sure (to my mind) receive.  I just hope I'm not depending on Ty to help carry my season when he (Williams) does get his shot.  The boom/bust aspect of Ty's situation is very real, no matter how we view his limited body of work last season, or the coach speak we've been fed this off-season.

     

Difficulty in the run game?  Green Bay consistently has a top 10 fantasy rb.  Top 5 the last 3 out of 4 years

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35 minutes ago, iheartrubio said:

Difficulty in the run game?  Green Bay consistently has a top 10 fantasy rb.  Top 5 the last 3 out of 4 years

 

The post is referring to difficulty in the real run game, not the fake one.  They are not the same thing.

 

The GB FO, CS and the players don't give a hoot whether Ty performs in fantasy.  If the real run game isn't doing what they want and expect it to do on the field, including facets like pass pro, some one will get scape-goated initially.  Ty has no RB pedigree or resume.  For that reason, he will be an easier target than most (whether it's really his fault or not).  That's not just the NFL.  That's human nature.

 

Of course, if the cure GB adopts (e.g., giving Williams a shot) is worse than the perceived disease, than Ty may not suffer much.  Also, Ty's ADP has been adjusting downward to some degree, making the bust risk more acceptable.  

 

All I am suggesting is that it is unwise IMO to ignore the fact that Ty has no RB pedigree or resume to inspire confidence if the results on the field begin to wane.  He absolutely is more vulnerable to criticism (deserved or not) for that reason.  The competence, if any, of the guys waiting in the wings only adds to the risk.

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Quote

 

 
by RotoWire Staff
(5 hrs ago) Montgomery (leg) is expected to play in Saturday's preseason game against the Broncos, barring any setbacks in practice Thursday.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Thursday he anticipates Montgomery will take the field Saturday after missing the team's second preseason tilt due to a minor leg injury. Green Bay's offense would be at full strength if Montgomery returns to the lineup, but the coaching staff may elect to limit their No. 1 running back's snap count until he's 100 percent with Week 1 of the regular season approaching. Jamaal Williams would be in line for additional reps with the first team if Montgomery is ultimately kept to the sideline, with Aaron Jones and Devante Mays providing depth as well.

 

 

 

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I thought Monty had some rb experience in college? Anyways, this is where I am on him. He's 6'0" 220lbs. Plenty big for a rb. From what I've read he did a great job running between the tackles last year. Also, didn't he have the highest yards per carry last season of all rb's with at least 100 carries? I read that somewhere. So that all tells me he can handle the workload efficiently. Now let's look at his pass catching ability. Out of the backfield alone he should get plenty of targets, but what makes him special is his ability to line up in the slot and run excellent routes.   

No matter how I look at it, this guy gives the packers a ton of versatility and he's a legit weapon. A 3-down back if you will, even if they don't quite give him the full run of the backfield, how many NFL teams do now a days? Also, I like to draft guys on top offenses, resulting in more scoring opportunities. Playing in an Aaron Rodgers led offense only helps. One scenario that's also possible is if there is an injury to Nelson, Adams, or Cobb. Monty would surely get more targets all over the place if that happens. Now please, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong here. I'm just having a tough time figuring out why we should be so wary of Monty when the positives greatly outweigh the negatives. 

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40 minutes ago, swnmkr12 said:

I thought Monty had some rb experience in college? Anyways, this is where I am on him. He's 6'0" 220lbs. Plenty big for a rb. From what I've read he did a great job running between the tackles last year. Also, didn't he have the highest yards per carry last season of all rb's with at least 100 carries? I read that somewhere. So that all tells me he can handle the workload efficiently. Now let's look at his pass catching ability. Out of the backfield alone he should get plenty of targets, but what makes him special is his ability to line up in the slot and run excellent routes.   

No matter how I look at it, this guy gives the packers a ton of versatility and he's a legit weapon. A 3-down back if you will, even if they don't quite give him the full run of the backfield, how many NFL teams do now a days? Also, I like to draft guys on top offenses, resulting in more scoring opportunities. Playing in an Aaron Rodgers led offense only helps. One scenario that's also possible is if there is an injury to Nelson, Adams, or Cobb. Monty would surely get more targets all over the place if that happens. Now please, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong here. I'm just having a tough time figuring out why we should be so wary of Monty when the positives greatly outweigh the negatives. 

Thank you 

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On 24/08/2017 at 11:20 PM, Onyx said:

 

In a fantasy football forum, where it is commonplace to criticize and critique those that have more skills than all of us combined, in an effort to minimize and deflate a players potential 'fantasy' value. 

 

Or try and convince everyone else that the handcuff they drafted is 10 times more valuable than the starter because they are praying that they will find people to agree with them and give them the confirmation bias they so desperately crave with their lotto pick. 

 

Its the same sort of people who let Murray go in the 5th and McCoy in the 3rd but are now using their first two picks to draft these guys "because they just cant miss". 

 

IE: no one actually knows what the hell they are talking about and the best thing you can do is try and draft good players in good situations with some upside. 

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