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Cooper Kupp 2017 Season Outlook


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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Robert Woods seems to be the flavor of the past 2 weeks. I hate smart coaches - give me predictable any day of the week.

 

 

(And twice on Sunday.)

 

Yup, wrong/other WR got the two TD game. Figured a WR would get 2 TDs this week. Just thought Kupp with his red zone targets would have been the one on the receiving end of those TDs. Guess not.

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1 minute ago, burninglegs said:

 

Yup, wrong/other WR got the two TD game. Figured a WR would get 2 TDs this week. Just thought Kupp with his red zone targets would have been the one on the receiving end of those TDs. Guess not.

Yep same here, but I didn't really trust it, so I benched him. Lucky me.

Except now he somehow has to get the RZ targets back. At least he managed to catch 6/7, which is pretty solid.

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I'm interested to see how Cooper fares against Minnesota this week.  I feel like the last couple weeks have been largely a product of game flow/the Rams playing awful teams.  The Rams are soaking up huge chunks of yardage on TD plays lately (94, 67, 52) in the last two weeks.  My anecdotal observation is that against the Giants and Texans,  the Rams' WR are blatantly wide open, so hard to necessarily blame Kupp when Woods/Watkins are uncovered.  Odds are that is not a trend.  In a more even game, let's see if Goff focuses in on Kupp.

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Just now, rschroeder1 said:

I'm interested to see how Cooper fares against Minnesota this week.  I feel like the last couple weeks have been largely a product of game flow/the Rams playing awful teams.  The Rams are soaking up huge chunks of yardage on TD plays lately (94, 67, 52) in the last two weeks.  My anecdotal observation is that against the Giants and Texans,  the Rams' WR are blatantly wide open, so hard to necessarily blame Kupp when Woods/Watkins are uncovered.  Odds are that is not a trend.  In a more even game, let's see if Goff focuses in on Kupp.

I like this thinking. 

 

I'll still pine him for Amari Cooper tho. 

 

Watching Woods eat TD's is frustrating. 

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Houston was putting some defensive focus on stopping Kupp.  I watched the whole game--it seemed that Goff looked at Kupp as a first read often, but he was covered so Goff checked down to Gurley or the TE.

 

Woods has been marvelous, there is no denying that.  Woods's second TD was on a beautifully executed fake end-around play where the defense lost track of him.  

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Cooper Kupp: He’s been quiet for a few weeks now, as he’s failed to top 54 yards in each of the last five games and scoring just once. His matchups weren’t the greatest among the wide receivers over the last two weeks, but when you’re seeing at least five targets in 7-of-9 games, you’ll produce. 39-year-old Terence Newman will be tasked with covering him, so don’t shy away from him as a high-floor WR4.

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Just picked him up for the third time, because Davis is not playable now and Hogan is likely to miss week 12 as well, so I needed a WR3 next week.  Have yet to start him.  I know all about his red zone targets, but only 3 games with more than 7 points in my 1/2 PPR league, so does that really matter?  Every 3rd game he gives you start-worthy numbers.  That's my issue with him.  Hogan consistently produces points with his red zone targets.  That's the difference between the two.

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Through Week 10, Football Outsiders ranks Kupp pretty highly.

 

27th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement
23rd in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
13th in Effective Yards (by average)

 

He also only had 2 drops coming in to Week 11, so now 3 (unless there was another yesterday, but I don't think there was).  Quite a few big names on the list with 2 or 3 drops.

 

Given the generally accepted learning curve for rookie WRs, I think overall he remains a really promising player.  Redraft, it's going to be spotty (Woods injury notwithstanding) but for keepers/dynasties, I don't think one negative game yesterday should cloud his future all that much.

Edited by rschroeder1
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19 minutes ago, Jstack34 said:

 

Guess it was just one drop then. He definitely fumbled. 

Brown also fumbled this week, lucky for him MB was there to fall on it...

 

I dont think McVay is Belichick where fumble is going stop Kupp from getting showered with targets now...

Edited by Sean Tambo
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22 minutes ago, Jstack34 said:

 

Guess it was just one drop then. He definitely fumbled. 

 

Yeah, one drop and the fumble.

 

I don't mean to sound like a Cooper fanboy, but I think that Kupp is being a bit unfairly penalized because two of his three drops on the year have been high-profile - the end zone drop on the second-to-last play against Seattle on what would have been a spectacular catch, and the crucial third-down drop this weekend against Minn.

 

For context, Odell Beckham has four drops this year on 41 targets (fewer targets than Kupp).  Alshon has two, Julio has three, DeAndre has three (although all on more targets than Kupp.

 

The Football Outsiders stats I posted earlier were eye-opening for me.  For a rookie to rate in the top 25 in efficiency and above replacement, he's doing something right.

Edited by rschroeder1
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2 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

Yeah, one drop and the fumble.

 

I don't mean to sound like a Cooper fanboy, but I think that Kupp is being a bit unfairly penalized because two of his three drops on the year have been high-profile - the end zone drop on the second-to-last play against Seattle on what would have been a spectacular catch, and the crucial third-down drop this weekend against Minn.

 

For context, Odell Beckham has four drops this year on 41 targets (fewer targets than Kupp).  Alshon has two, Julio has three, DeAndre has three (although all on more targets than Kupp.

 

The Football Outsiders stats I posted earlier were eye-opening for me.  For a rookie to rate in the top 25 in efficiency and above replacement, he's doing something right.

 

He definitely has been good, but you are right, those drops stand out.  If you are watching Red Zone and they flip to the Rams and you see that fumble or that drop, it really sticks out to you. Similar to the drop you mention in the Seattle game.

 

For a rookie, still an impressive year

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Greg Olson was calling the game for FOX.  He said when he was a rookie playing for Chicago, he had a game in Carolina where he had two catches, and was stripped on each for two fumbles lost.  His teammates and coaches propped him up, and in the next game, his QB threw him the ball on the first offensive play.  Olson obviously has gone on to an excellent career, and he thinks Kupp will, too.

 

I think the Rams are going to handle Kupp's disappointing game in similar fashion.  Especially with Woods out for two weeks minimum.

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