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Davante Adams 2017 Season Outlook


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Adams is currently WR19 in ADP.  In PPR, he was WR9 in PPG last season.

 

If he and Rodgers stay healthy this season, I'm on record as predicting that Adams will be a consistent producer that any owner will happy to have no matter where his is taken.  

 

GB is team with a money QB and, potentially, a very porous D.  Adams has proven to all of us that he's learned the ropes, has adequate talent and that Rodgers totally trusts him.  Adams is a no brainer.   

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14 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Adams is currently WR19 in ADP.  In PPR, he was WR9 in PPG last season.

 

If he and Rodgers stay healthy this season, I'm on record as predicting that Adams will be a consistent producer that any owner will happy to have no matter where his is taken.  

 

GB is team with a money QB and, potentially, a very porous D.  Adams has proven to all of us that he's learned the ropes, has adequate talent and that Rodgers totally trusts him.  Adams is a no brainer.   

 

The old adage is that TDs are unpredictable.  And Adams was a high end WR last year primarily because of the TDs.

 

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if he fell from 12 to 7 or 8, and Cobb climbed from 6 back up to 10 or something.

 

Then again, it wouldn't surprise me if they stayed the same either.

 

You just don't know what you're getting, though.  If it's a third round price tag I might shy away and go with a high end QB instead just for safety's sake.

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Anticipating Cobb's return to high-end production seems like folly.

I see Nelson/Adams manning the feature roles in this offense with sporadic contributions from Cobb.

 

Nelson is #1 while he is healthy.

Adams is #2

Cobb is #3, but I can see Bennett bulling his way into quite a few touches, as well.

 

Edited by Winky
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31 minutes ago, Winky said:

 

Anticipating Cobb's return to high-end production seems like folly.

 

 

I'm not anticipating it.  But he's done it before and so it wouldn't surprise me if it happens again.

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6 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I bet GB has to score more than ever before.  There is going to a bigger pie to split this season.  Adams will get his.

 

 

By biiger pie are u saying Rodgers will throw significantly more than 600 passes or do u mean target shares get reallocated? 

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23 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I bet GB has to score more than ever before.  There is going to a bigger pie to split this season.  Adams will get his.

 

Only 262 pass yards per game, and 27 total points per game last year for GB.  Barely top 5 territory in both.  Certainly room to improve.  I wonder what their schedule looks like?

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25 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

More scores.  I'd like to hear from someone who follows GB, but a porous D seems to be looming on the horizon.

 

Hyde, Ha Ha, and Burnett are solid DBs, and as long as Burnett stays healthy GB can put up a fight vs. aerial attack, at least regarding coverage and potential interceptions. Problem is pass-rushing AND LBs -- there are your pores. If you're playing IDP, here is your Green Bay resource: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/01/30/mcginn-2016-packers-defensive-player-grades/97137954/ (This notes 2016 upgrades, article published in January 2017 --- wait for Bob McGinn's 2017 update for a further grasp. Here's McGinn's start (3 weeks ago), but it's not his "report card" yet:  http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/04/22/mcginns-2017-nfl-draft-rankings-and-analysis/100781778/ ) 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Hyde, Ha Ha, and Burnett are solid DBs, and as long as Burnett stays healthy GB can put up a fight vs. aerial attack, at least regarding coverage and potential interceptions. Problem is pass-rushing AND LBs -- there are your pores. If you're playing IDP, here is your Green Bay resource: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/01/30/mcginn-2016-packers-defensive-player-grades/97137954/ (This notes 2016 upgrades, article published in January 2017 --- wait for Bob McGinn's 2017 update for a further grasp. Here's McGinn's start (3 weeks ago), but it's not his "report card" yet:  http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/04/22/mcginns-2017-nfl-draft-rankings-and-analysis/100781778/ ) 

 

 

 

53 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

More scores.  I'd like to hear from someone who follows GB, but a porous D seems to be looming on the horizon.

 

My bad: not Hyde, who's now a Bill (though he was solid as a Packer) --- jury is still out on the "new" DBs, but stay tuned for McGinn: http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/mcginn/2017/04/25/mcginn-nfl-draft-dbs-cornerbacks-tall-safeties-strong/100873630/

 

 

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19 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Adams is currently WR19 in ADP.  In PPR, he was WR9 in PPG last season.

 

If he and Rodgers stay healthy this season, I'm on record as predicting that Adams will be a consistent producer that any owner will happy to have no matter where his is taken.  

 

GB is team with a money QB and, potentially, a very porous D.  Adams has proven to all of us that he's learned the ropes, has adequate talent and that Rodgers totally trusts him.  Adams is a no brainer.   

 

Cobb had ankle and hamstring issues last year.  Um, does James Jones mean anything to you?  No?  How about Donald Driver?

 

Rodgers has a history of making old receivers fantasy relevant.   If Cobb is healthy, he and Adams eat into each other's targets.  Jordy is the only safe bet, assuming he can also avoid injuries.

 

The upside is there, but the downside is Jordy and a couple WR3s.  

 

Ceiling vs. floor.  Pick your poison.

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If you look at Cobb's career numbers year by year his 2014 looks like the outlier of all outliers.. I realize injuries play a factor into his production to an extent but to consider Cobb a determent to Adams' production doesn't seem wise. If anything I would expect Cobb and Bennett to counter one another, not Cobb and Adams.

 

Further more I actually believe Jordy being healthy greatly helps Adams rather than limiting him. As I mentioned in an earlier post, to this point in his career Adams' has not shown the consistent elite breakaway speed or explosion necessary to get separation from teams top CBs so the more attention Jordy can take off of Adams the better IMO. 

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6 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

If you look at Cobb's career numbers year by year his 2014 looks like the outlier of all outliers.. I realize injuries play a factor into his production to an extent but to consider Cobb a determent to Adams' production doesn't seem wise. If anything I would expect Cobb and Bennett to counter one another, not Cobb and Adams.

 

Further more I actually believe Jordy being healthy greatly helps Adams rather than limiting him. As I mentioned in an earlier post, to this point in his career Adams' has not shown the consistent elite breakaway speed or explosion necessary to get separation from teams top CBs so the more attention Jordy can take off of Adams the better IMO. 

 

Jordy was hurt two years ago.  I drafted Adams thinking he would slide right in for Jordy.  Davante sucked and I cut him.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Jones and Driver are guiding you to predict big things from Cobb??  Ok, whatever works for you.  

 

Actually, being healthy and getting paid a lot of money suggests that Cobb might get his fair share of "targets".

Jones and Driver give us some history.  When Green Bay's WRs are washed up, they don't stay.  When they cannot function on other teams, they come back and are good again.

 

All I guess is targets. I let the player's career averages do the rest.  I give rookies league averages.   

Adam's had a breakout season last year with a LOT of TDs (this suggests a TD regression).  I'm guessing Cobb and Adams end up getting similar target share if all three players are healthy.

You can guess something different.

 

2014: Cobb had a good year.  Adams sucked.

2015: Jordy is hurt and both players suck.

2016: Adam's had a good year while Cobb was hurt

2017....????

 

I have 4 guys outside the top 36 ADP finishing in the top 18 based on targets and career averages (catch rate / yards per catch / TDs per target).  

I'll use my early picks on RBs. If I'm taking WR in the 3rd round, it's either Sammy Watkins, or Martavis Bryant: targets and averages.  I don't think Jeffery lasts past the 2nd round.  I've got Dez at 110 targets for 65/900/10.  Dak doesn't feature him like Romo did.  Dez is a TD dependent WR2.

Edited by jmausen
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35 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

If you look at Cobb's career numbers year by year his 2014 looks like the outlier of all outliers.. I realize injuries play a factor into his production to an extent but to consider Cobb a determent to Adams' production doesn't seem wise. If anything I would expect Cobb and Bennett to counter one another, not Cobb and Adams.

 

Further more I actually believe Jordy being healthy greatly helps Adams rather than limiting him. As I mentioned in an earlier post, to this point in his career Adams' has not shown the consistent elite breakaway speed or explosion necessary to get separation from teams top CBs so the more attention Jordy can take off of Adams the better IMO. 

 

Use targets and career averages.  Cobb had an outlier, so did Adams.  The numbers work themselves out.

 

As for Bennett, the system throws within a given range of slot/outside/RB/and TE routes.  They are all mutually exclusive.  Who plays the slot position when Cobb is out?  It's target distribution between Jordy/Adams/Cobb.  Jordy has the safest floor.

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17 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Use targets and career averages.  Cobb had an outlier, so did Adams.  The numbers work themselves out.

 

As for Bennett, the system throws within a given range of slot/outside/RB/and TE routes.  They are all mutually exclusive.  Who plays the slot position when Cobb is out?  It's target distribution between Jordy/Adams/Cobb.  Jordy has the safest floor.

 

Right, but Cobb has a much bigger sample size to look at to evaluate his outlier compared to a "normal" season. Adams was a rookie in 2014 and was splitting snaps with Jarrett Boykin for a good chunk of the season, 2015 was bad for both players but Adams was dealing with a high ankle sprain from week 3 on and re-aggravated it twice after that I believe.. I just think it's harder to write off Adams' 2016 as an outlier the same way you can for Cobb's 2014 at this point.

 

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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

2014: Cobb had a good year.  Adams sucked. (Adams was a rookie and rookies WRs are always successful in GB)

2015: Jordy is hurt and both players suck. (Adams played the entire season through a high ankle sprain sustained in September)

2016: Adam's had a good year while Cobb was hurt (Adams starting to live up to the hype)

2017....???? (Adams is still just 24 years old and continuing to ascend as a player in the NFL)

 

To me, the competition for targets will be between Nelson and Adams... with both getting at least 130.

Cobb will fight for the lion share of the scraps with the rest of the offense.

 

(Apologies to @MoonBlaster, I did not read your post before responding to jmausen's blather)

Edited by Winky
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54 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

Right, but Cobb has a much bigger sample size to look at to evaluate his outlier compared to a "normal" season. Adams was a rookie in 2014 and was splitting snaps with Jarrett Boykin for a good chunk of the season, 2015 was bad for both players but Adams was dealing with a high ankle sprain from week 3 on and re-aggravated it twice after that I believe.. I just think it's harder to write off Adams' 2016 as an outlier the same way you can for Cobb's 2014 at this point.

 

 

Cobb was a top-24 WR in 2012 and 2015. Let's not act like 2014 was his only good season. 

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4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Cobb was a top-24 WR in 2012 and 2015. Let's not act like 2014 was his only good season. 

 

I feel like Cobb's results are more from Rodgers being so good rather than Cobb being so good (like James Jones, etc...).

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13 minutes ago, Winky said:

 

I feel like Cobb's results are more from Rodgers being so good rather than Cobb being so good (like James Jones, etc...).

 

Agree, but Rodgers is still there. Every year Cobb has been healthy he's produced. If (big if) he's healthy for 2017, Rodgers favors him over Adams behind Jordy. 

 

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36 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Agree, but Rodgers is still there. Every year Cobb has been healthy he's produced. If (big if) he's healthy for 2017, Rodgers favors him over Adams behind Jordy. 

 

 

If we look at Cobb's 2012 and 2015 compared to Adams' 2016 and remove the TDs since they are "fluky":

 

Cobb 2012: 80 rec on 104 targets for 954 yards. (2nd season)

Cobb 2015: 79 rec on 129 targets for 829 (5th season)

Adams' 2016: 75 rec on 121 targets for 997 yards (3rd season)

 

I think we can all agree that those are pretty similar numbers, not amazing stats worth a 3rd round pick as Adams' ADP suggests but not bad either... but since this is fantasy football we are talking about we need to consider the fact that Adams is on the rise right now whereas Cobb has remained pretty steady with those back-end top 24ish numbers for most of his career (other than 2014). If we lived in a vacuum and assumed that at age 24 Adams is no longer going to improve as a player than I would totally agree and say there is no reason to take Adams at his ADP (I actually think he's overpriced either way) and that Cobb is the steal of the GB WRs (which he arguably still is).
 

 

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Agree, but Rodgers is still there. Every year Cobb has been healthy he's produced. If (big if) he's healthy for 2017, Rodgers favors him over Adams behind Jordy. 

 

 

Cobb's injuries or not, Rodgers proved last season that he has plenty of trust and chemistry with Adams.  This is a way different GB team in 2017 than in 2012 or 2015.  Who Rodgers will "favor" going forward, assuming all are healthy, is anyone's guess.  Knowing Rodgers, it will probably vary by game.

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Cobb's injuries or not, Rodgers proved last season that he has plenty of trust and chemistry with Adams.  This is a way different GB team in 2017 than in 2012 or 2015.  Who Rodgers will "favor" going forward, assuming all are healthy, is anyone's guess.  Knowing Rodgers, it will probably vary by game.

 

It's not that different. Jordy and Cobb are still his favorite targets when healthy. Cobb's injuries opened the door for Adams who finally proved worthy of Rodgers' trust last year. 

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