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Davante Adams 2017 Season Outlook


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4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

It's not that different. Jordy and Cobb are still his favorite targets when healthy. Cobb's injuries opened the door for Adams who finally proved worthy of Rodgers' trust last year. 

 

With what we witnessed between Rodgers and Adams last season, it is only an opinion (aka a guess) going forward that Rodgers will favor Cobb over Adams when both are on the field.  I do not believe he will.  I also believe that GB is a different team on both sides of ball right now than it was 5 years ago.  

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4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

With what we witnessed between Rodgers and Adams last season, it is only an opinion (aka a guess) going forward that Rodgers will favor Cobb over Adams when both are on the field.  I do not believe he will.  I also believe that GB is a different team on both sides of ball right now than it was 5 years ago.  

 

5 years ago they had a bad defense, no running game, and a pass-heavy offense centered around Rodgers to Jordy, Cobb and a third WR (James Jones then, Adams now). 

 

Not much different.

 

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I think Adams is the real deal.

 

1. He gets separation almost effortlessly. Very quick off the line, easily wins 1x1 against most corners.

2. Clean route running. This was an issue in 2015, but he has developed a couple of go-to routes that he executes at a high level each week. He probably runs the best slant route in the league, almost uncoverable.

3. Two aforementioned reasons make him really good in the red zone. Almost Dez Bryant-like in terms of efficiency.

 

Only negative is the drops. Not the safest hands.

 

Another concern is whether he is a true WR1 or just a strong 2nd receiver. Jordy Nelson, as we found out, is indispensable. Even when accounting for his improvement, is he capable of being Rodgers' main man if Nelson gets injured? All those easy 1x1 lay-ups would disappear if Jordy isn't in the lineup. We saw how different the offense looked in 2015, but Adams spent most of the season struggling with injuries. He is clearly a better player now, but this is the question he will need to answer.

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17 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

5 years ago they had a bad defense, no running game, and a pass-heavy offense centered around Rodgers to Jordy, Cobb and a third WR (James Jones then, Adams now). 

 

Not much different.

 

 

You made me look it up.  In 2012, GB was top 11 in defense.  Twice as bad last year (22nd).  Likely to be worse in 2017.  That's my point.  We're looking at an offensively talented team that may be chasing points alot.  Even some garage time is not out of the question.  Now that the Rodgers to Adams trust/chemistry has been established, Adams is likely to produce consistently, and IMO at a high level, health permitting.  It doesn't bother me if someone doesn't believe that.

 

That said, given Adams' and Cobb's respective ADPs, I can see why folks believe that a healthy Cobb is a better value at the moment than a healthy Adams. 

 

Oh, and I don't buy the Jones comparison to Adams at all.

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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45 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

You made me look it up.  In 2012, GB was top 11 in defense.  Twice as bad last year (22nd).  Likely to be worse in 2017.  That's my point.  We're looking at an offensively talented team that may be chasing points alot.  Even some garage time is not out of the question.  Now that the Rodgers to Adams trust/chemistry has been established, Adams is likely to produce consistently, and IMO at a high level, health permitting.  It doesn't bother me if someone doesn't believe that.

 

That said, given Adams' and Cobb's respective ADPs, I can see why folks believe that a healthy Cobb is a better value at the moment than a healthy Adams. 

 

Oh, and I don't buy the Jones comparison to Adams at all.

 

 

 

Off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure Jones led the NFL in TD receptions in 2012. Very similar to Adams' TD upside. 

 

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5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure Jones led the NFL in TD receptions in 2012. Very similar to Adams' TD upside. 

 

 

As players, Jones and Adams are way different in my book.  For one, Jones was arguably past his prime in 2012, whereas Adams is just approaching his.  TDs may be similar, but Adams is already targeted at a higher rate than Jones ever was.  Apples and oranges.  Also, we disagree over how relevant 2012 is to anything, so I'll throw in the towel.

 

My story is that, health permitting,  Adams is a relatively safe pick this season, and I'm sticking to it!!   

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Again, I don't get why we're looking at this in a vacuum. We've seen what Cobb does as a healthy main stay in the offense, around 75-80 receptions and 850-950 yards.. We have enough data to at least assume these are reasonable ceiling estimations for a guy whose going on his 7th season.. Could he overproduce and top these numbers? Absolutely,  but it makes zero sense to assume he will. 

 

Adams on the other hand is going into his 4th season and has shown great improvement so why are we not factoring in the idea of him improving his game further? It's not like Jordy came out guns a blazing his first few years but by year 4 he started to blow up (before anyone says anything I'm not comparing Adams to Jordy).. To compare Adams to James Jones and say that the distribution will be the same as it was 5 years ago is puzzling at best.

 

If you want to logically believe that Adams is not good and will not be better next season therefore Cobb will terrorize Adams production then you've got a different case to make, but to matter of factly say that Cobb will be the #2 in the offense because that's how it was in 2012 is wild. 

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20 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

If you want to logically believe that Adams is not good and will not be better next season therefore Cobb will terrorize Adams production then you've got a different case to make, but to matter of factly say that Cobb will be the #2 in the offense because that's how it was in 2012 is wild. 

 

That's not even how it was in 2012.

 

Cobb got more playing time as a slot receiver once Jennings, and later Jordy, got injured. The washed up Jennings was eventually phased out.

 

I have said it before, and i'm probably biased since i own him in dynasty, but Adams is the future of the Packers offense until he proves otherwise. He has no competition at this point.

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19 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

That's not even how it was in 2012.

 

Cobb got more playing time as a slot receiver once Jennings, and later Jordy, got injured. The washed up Jennings was eventually phased out.

 

I have said it before, and i'm probably biased since i own him in dynasty, but Adams is the future of the Packers offense until he proves otherwise. He has no competition at this point.

 

Thanks for bringing this up, I was going to mention how Jennings was a starter that year as well. I'm pretty sure Adams season last year eclipsed any of Jones seasons already 

Edited by MoonBlaster
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31 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

Davante Adams says that he has only seen 2 pretty girls in Green Bay.

 

Thoughts, Packers fans?

 

 

 

Who was the other one besides his QB's ex-girlfriend?

 

Doesnt sound like someone who wants to stay in GB after this season...

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

alot of differing opinions on Adams, I'm targeting him as my WR2 unless DT or Alshon slip to me.Have him over Cooks/Tate/Baldwin/Allen. Thinking he'll be there for my 3rd or 4th rd pick in a 10 team standard

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1 hour ago, GueroG said:

alot of differing opinions on Adams, I'm targeting him as my WR2 unless DT or Alshon slip to me.Have him over Cooks/Tate/Baldwin/Allen. Thinking he'll be there for my 3rd or 4th rd pick in a 10 team standard

 

 

I think baldwin is a wr1  again this season and will surprise many as he moves into the top7 with a healthy rwilson

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  • 5 weeks later...

28. Davante Adams, GB
2017 Projection: 72 receptions / 864 yards / 10 touchdowns (218 points)
Outlook: Davante Adams finally cashed in on his draft position from 2014 last season, as he caught a ton of touchdown passes and seemed to earn the trust of Aaron Rodgers. He still drops his share of passes, however he has developed into an excellent red zone weapon and all-over-the-field option. The passing game volume will always be there for Green Bay, and as the #2 weapon at wide receiver, Adams will have his useful weeks. However, the arrival of tight end Martellus Bennett threatens Adams opportunities, especially in the red zone, and I feel that this addition will impact Adams in the final rankings. A WR2 based on passing game volume, but again, he may struggle for consistency.

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  • 4 weeks later...

WR9 in PPR last year.  Even if you reduce his TDs from 12 to 7, he'd be in a virtual tie for WR18.  Yet in a recent MFL 10 draft, I saw him go as WR25.  I doubted this guy all last year and expect some regression, but WR25 seems a bit low to me.

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10 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

WR9 in PPR last year.  Even if you reduce his TDs from 12 to 7, he'd be in a virtual tie for WR18.  Yet in a recent MFL 10 draft, I saw him go as WR25.  I doubted this guy all last year and expect some regression, but WR25 seems a bit low to me.

 

His last 15 day mfl10 adp is wr20. So wr 25 was a bit of a bargain. I'm not big on him personally. I like Cobb to progress and Adams to regress. By mfl adp 

17. Allen

18. Landry

19. Jeffrey

21. Prior

22. Tate

23. Hill

24. Crabtree

25. Bryant

26. Fitz

 

i wouldn't take Adams over any of these guys

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Still trying to figure out what I think about Adams for this season.

 

 

Quote

In 2016 the Packers ran the ball on 64.68% of their plays, compared to 58.89% in 2015. Outside of the 2016 season, where they ranked 2nd highest in percentage of pass plays per game, you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find another season where the Packers finished in the top 15 of pass plays.

 

This increase in passing volume is striking when looking at Adams target share in 2016 compared to 2015. In 2015 Adams 94 targets represented a 19.8% target share. In 2016 Adams target share decreased a shade to 19.7%, yet his actual targets increased to 121.

 

The Packers were 2nd in the league in pass attempts because their running game was anemic, to be kind. At one point or another, they trotted out Don Jackson, Christine Michael, Kniles Davis out after losing Eddie Lacy to injury and before they realized Ty Montgomery was the perfect running back. All you need to know about the Packers rushing offense is this. Aaron Rodgers was the 2nd leading rusher with his 369 yards.

Their running game in tatters, Green Bay’s only option was to throw a lot. Ty Montgomery returns as the starter, with an offseason to work on his RB skills. The addition of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should allow Green Bay to closer to a league average split of run/pass plays. With a reduction in overall pass attempts, I foresee Adam’s skewing closer to his 2015 total of 94 as opposed to the 121 he received in 2016.

 

 

Quote

Another area that almost certainly will regress for Adams in 2017 is his touchdown production. Adams finished with 12 touchdowns last season, the 2nd most at the wide receiver position. Jordy Nelson, led the league with 14 touchdowns on 97 receptions, meaning every 6.92 receptions resulted in a touchdown. Antonio Brown also finished 2016 with 12 touchdowns but did so on 106 receptions, which works out to a TD  per every 8.83 receptions.

 

Mike Evans also finished with 12 touchdowns. Evans did this on 96 receptions, scoring a touchdown every 8 receptions. Davante Adams? He scored a touchdown every 6.25 receptions. Scoring at that rate is not sustainable. Further evidence of Adams fantasy points being dependent on touchdowns is his average yards receiving per game. Though Adams finished 10th in PPR scoring last season, he finished 33rd in yards per game with 62.3.

 

Every where you look on the stat sheet at Adams 2016 season just provides further evidence of his dependence on touchdowns for his fantasy scoring. Again Adams, finished 10th in scoring last season but only 20th in targets, 22nd in receptions, and 24th in receiving yards. With the addition of Martellus Bennett, Adams will have further competition for end zone targets. In fact, Bennett is a direct competitor for red zone targets and targets within 10 yards of the end zone. Bennett bests Adams in catch rate inside the 20, and within the 10-yard line, he almost matches Adams scoring production on fewer targets.

 

http://dynastyfootballfactory.com/davante-adams-not-a-top-24-wr-in-2017/

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10 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

Still trying to figure out what I think about Adams for this season.

 

 

 

 

 

http://dynastyfootballfactory.com/davante-adams-not-a-top-24-wr-in-2017/

 

I'd be fine with taking him at his cost. There's not a lot of players at that round that offer double-digit touchdown upside, and Adams is still incredibly young.

 

Combine that with possible Jordy regression (33 years old), Cobb and Bennett possibly competing for scraps (I don't think Bennett does any better than 700 yards and 6 TDs this year), and you have someone who I think will get you 1000 yards and 8 TD's. Adams improved across the board last year.

 

It's funny. Two years ago, I drafted Adams in the 4th due to the Jordy injury and he was horrible. This year, I may have to take the plunge in the 4th again. Hope I'm right this time.

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Adams broke out towards the end last year with Rodgers... I think this year he picks up where he left off. Rodgers trust him a lot more. He also got visibly better, running cleaner routes, has good hands and a nice target in the redzone. I'm definitely looking to grab him this year 

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We do this dance with the GB WR2 every damn year. 

 

Cobb blows up...he becomes a popular WR2 pickup. 

 

Then James Jones blows up. People still like Cobb, but attention is turned to Jones. 

 

Then Adams blows up. People completely move off Cobb and fall in love with Adams. 

 

Point is, there is going to be a very good WR2 player in this offense every year, and it seems to change constantly. 

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8 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

We do this dance with the GB WR2 every damn year. 

 

Cobb blows up...he becomes a popular WR2 pickup. 

 

Then James Jones blows up. People still like Cobb, but attention is turned to Jones. 

 

Then Adams blows up. People completely move off Cobb and fall in love with Adams. 

 

Point is, there is going to be a very good WR2 player in this offense every year, and it seems to change constantly. 

 

But Adams is the one in which they have the most draft capital sunk into, had had a horrendous year, and then improved dramatically across the board in the categories he was bad in.

 

I agree with you that it could swing Cobbs way, but perhaps they are happy with the role Cobb is playing now. I would feel comfortable that Adams would return his 4th round cost.

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18 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

We do this dance with the GB WR2 every damn year. 

 

Cobb blows up...he becomes a popular WR2 pickup. 

 

Then James Jones blows up. People still like Cobb, but attention is turned to Jones. 

 

Then Adams blows up. People completely move off Cobb and fall in love with Adams. 

 

Point is, there is going to be a very good WR2 player in this offense every year, and it seems to change constantly. 

 

True enough, but Adams is a different animal in terms of measurables and skill set.  That may allow him to stick as GB's real #2.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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