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Davante Adams 2017 Season Outlook


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42 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

True enough, but Adams is a different animal in terms of measurables and skill set.  That may allow him to stick as GB's real #2.

 

 

He's in a contract year. Unless he has another great year AND is willing to not chase the highest offer in FA, this will probably be his last season in GB. 

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's in a contract year. Unless he has another great year AND is willing to not chase the highest offer in FA, this will probably be his last season in GB. 

 

 

I was thinking just about his repeating this season a GB's #2, but you make a good point.

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's in a contract year. Unless he has another great year AND is willing to not chase the highest offer in FA, this will probably be his last season in GB. 

 

He's not getting out of Green Bay. It goes completely against Thompson's MO. They have plenty of money to restructure him midseason, and unless Cobb gets his act together, he's the likely one out of GB.

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18 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

A good bet to score fewer FFL points than Cobb this year. 

 

I'll eat my hat if Cobb outscores Adams (with no injuries) Cobb has one great season out of 6. The rest have either been riddled by injury or he's massively disappointed. Not to mention he looked terrrrrrrible against Philly last week getting in and out of his breaks.

 

Adams skill set greatly differs from that of Cobb's and he can play any of the 3 positions. He is Jordy's replacement. And his role will continue to increase. Rodgers doesn't throw to TE's very often; never has. Bennett isn't going to vouch as much as people think. Jordy and Adams will get the bulk of the work, the rest will get the scraps.

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2 hours ago, smetana34 said:

I'll eat my hat if Cobb outscores Adams (with no injuries) Cobb has one great season out of 6. The rest have either been riddled by injury or he's massively disappointed. Not to mention he looked terrrrrrrible against Philly last week getting in and out of his breaks.

 

Adams skill set greatly differs from that of Cobb's and he can play any of the 3 positions. He is Jordy's replacement. And his role will continue to increase. Rodgers doesn't throw to TE's very often; never has. Bennett isn't going to vouch as much as people think. Jordy and Adams will get the bulk of the work, the rest will get the scraps.

 

Cobb was a top-24 PPR WR at the end of the FFL season (wks 1-16) in 2012, 2014 and 2015. More than just one great season. 

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's in a contract year. Unless he has another great year AND is willing to not chase the highest offer in FA, this will probably be his last season in GB. 

 

 

Cobb's 26, Jordy gone soon, maybe Adams gone soon and Jordy as well. Plus he has multiple seasons with great fantasy production. Buy low in dynasty. Cobb didn't get any targets within the 5 last year surprisingly, I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers jump up. He's basically a cheaper Crowder which is interesting. He's definitely on my radar. Anyone who has written him off suffers from recency bias. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Cobb was a top-24 PPR WR at the end of the FFL season (wks 1-16) in 2012, 2014 and 2015. More than just one great season. 

 

Is a Top 24 finish a great season?

 

2015 stats: 829 yards and 6 TDs... this is not great to me... barely 50 yards a game.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Winky said:

 

Is a Top 24 finish a great season?

 

2015 stats: 829 yards and 6 TDs... this is not great to me... barely 50 yards a game.

 

 

 

It's at least WR2 in 12-team leagues. Look at the ADP for the #24 drafted WR in PPR leagues -- yes, it's a good season (3rd-4th rd value at least). 

 

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5 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

Davante Adams gonna make a lot of people regret not drafting him.. just saying ! Y'all will see 

 

These are 8 of the 10 WRs being drafted directly after D.Adams right now: (PPR)

Allen Robinson

Michael Crabtree

Kelvin Benjamin

Brandon Marshall

Jarvis Landry

Golden Tate

Julian Edelman

Larry Fitzgerald

 

Of these 8 WRs last year:

7 (88%) of them had more targets than Adams.

5 (63%) of them had more receptions than Adams.

5 (63%) of them had more yards than Adams.

 

10 games of 50 yards or less. (62.5 per game = 1k a year)

Just for reference, there were 23 WRs to break the 1k mark last year, Adams was not one of them.

 

Adams ranked 20th in targets, 22nd in reception, and 24th in yards... in a year that was bad for WRs, and saw 2 previous elite options get injured. (Dez and AJG)

Chase TDs are your own peril.  Currently drafted as the 19th WR off the board, it's not that far off of his no-TD stats, even if we assume the TDs come down to a reasonable level, so even if he repeats last year, but only 8TDs, he's still likely a low end WR2, for WR19 isn't a make or break investment.  The issue is that when you draft Adams, you have to pass on all of the names listed above, who already have top 10 seasons to their names, without TD dependencies, some even top 5.  Unless Jordy gets injured, or Adams turns into Jordy, I find it very hard to believe anyone will regret passing on him.

 

I've seen people fall for this before.  James Jones 2012, and then Adams fell on his face back in 2015.

There are just too many better options at his price, he's a DND for me.

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9 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

But Adams is the one in which they have the most draft capital sunk into, had had a horrendous year, and then improved dramatically across the board in the categories he was bad in.

 

I agree with you that it could swing Cobbs way, but perhaps they are happy with the role Cobb is playing now. I would feel comfortable that Adams would return his 4th round cost.

Rodgers sees the field really damn well. He's gonna hit the open guy. His thought process isn't "s---, Jordy is double teamed. Ok, 2nd and 3rd reads now. Well, Adams is more well covered than Cobb, but dammit we took him in the 3rd round a couple years ago. I better force it in there to him". 

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Just now, Experienced Rookie said:

Rodgers sees the field really damn well. He's gonna hit the open guy. His thought process isn't "s---, Jordy is double teamed. Ok, 2nd and 3rd reads now. Well, Adams is more well covered than Cobb, but dammit we took him in the 3rd round a couple years ago. I better force it in there to him". 

 

And when Rodgers reads the field, he's going to see Adams open plenty of times. :-)

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21 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

These are 8 of the 10 WRs being drafted directly after D.Adams right now: (PPR)

Allen Robinson

Michael Crabtree

Kelvin Benjamin

Brandon Marshall

Jarvis Landry

Golden Tate

Julian Edelman

Larry Fitzgerald

 

Of these 8 WRs last year:

7 (88%) of them had more targets than Adams.

5 (63%) of them had more receptions than Adams.

5 (63%) of them had more yards than Adams.

 

10 games of 50 yards or less. (62.5 per game = 1k a year)

Just for reference, there were 23 WRs to break the 1k mark last year, Adams was not one of them.

 

Adams ranked 20th in targets, 22nd in reception, and 24th in yards... in a year that was bad for WRs, and saw 2 previous elite options get injured. (Dez and AJG)

Chase TDs are your own peril.  Currently drafted as the 19th WR off the board, it's not that far off of his no-TD stats, even if we assume the TDs come down to a reasonable level, so even if he repeats last year, but only 8TDs, he's still likely a low end WR2, for WR19 isn't a make or break investment.  The issue is that when you draft Adams, you have to pass on all of the names listed above, who already have top 10 seasons to their names, without TD dependencies, some even top 5.  Unless Jordy gets injured, or Adams turns into Jordy, I find it very hard to believe anyone will regret passing on him.

 

I've seen people fall for this before.  James Jones 2012, and then Adams fell on his face back in 2015.

There are just too many better options at his price, he's a DND for me.

 

He didn't get it going until mid season.. your stats back up your argument I won't argue with that, but I'm going with my gut based off what I saw from Adams towards the end of the year. He finally showed what he's capable of and he was quite impressive. His route running was great and he turned into a reliable target for Rodgers. Rodgers you could tell was trusting him more and looking for him often. I believe Adams is hitting his stride and from what I've read in the offseason he is very motivated, even drop some weight so he can be faster. Not to mention he is young so it's taken a little time to grow, but he's trending upward imo. 

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Chase TDs are your own peril.

 

A wise rule, but maybe Adams deserves a bit of a pass (no pun intended) here.

 

Of GB's 51 scores, only 11 were via the rush.  Those 40 scores had to be caught by someone, and Cobb and the TEs have never been a big part of the equation.  Adams scored alot because that is just what tends to happen with the big WRs playing with Rodgers.

 

Do we expect this offense to change its stripes?  If not, then maybe Adams is destined for more of the same too.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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5 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

"A wise rule, but maybe Adams deserves a bit of a pass (no pun intended) here. Of GB's 51 scores, only 11 were via the rush. Those 40 scores had to be caught by someone, and Cobb and the TEs have never been a big part of the equation. Adams scored alot because that is just what tends to happen with the big WRs playing with Rodgers. Do we expect this offense to change its stripes?  If not, then maybe Adams is destined for more of the same too."

 

I wouldn't expect a drastic philosophical change, but they know they need better balance & production. That's what they're hoping Montgomery gives them. Cobb is pretty slight and it just seems that in order for him to endure a workload that's fantasy relevant, they'll have to run him open and then after the catch, be able to get down. Then, there's the fact that they're lining Nelson up in the slot more frequently. Those are the reasons that justify Cobb's current adp, imo.  

 

Down the stretch, Jared Cook really came up big for them & they did want to bring him back. It's important to remember that both Nelson & Adams were nursing injuries during their playoff run. I suppose Bennett gives them a similar presence down the seam & his adp is very inviting. For me, he's more of a plan B guy coupled with Reed or Gronk. 

 

I would think with them moving Jordo around they would need some semblance of a presence on the perimeter. Adams is the guy they have. We read all the time about teams not extending players or not picking up 5th year options, but with Adams it's like it's not even report-worthy. They did pay Jennings & Cobb although neither of them did much afterwards. I do agree, Adams rapport with Rodgers probably still has some upside there, with TD regression.          

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9 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

A wise rule, but maybe Adams deserves a bit of a pass (no pun intended) here.

 

Of GB's 51 scores, only 11 were via the rush.  Those 40 scores had to be caught by someone, and Cobb and the TEs have never been a big part of the equation.  Adams scored alot because that is just what tends to happen with the big WRs playing with Rodgers.

 

Do we expect this offense to change its stripes?  If not, then maybe Adams is destined for more of the same too.

 

 

Excellent point.

 

Rodgers redzone stats in 2016:

31 TDs, 0 INTs. (Best in the league)

 

Rodgers inside the 10:

24 TDs (best in the league), 0 INTs, 67.3% completion % (highest in the league w/ at least 60 attempts). 

 

They won't just run Monty or a rookie in the redzone if it's not successful just for the sake of balance. Rodgers is the best redzone QB in the league. He scores more TDs and practically never turns it over. I don't expect that to change this season. Adams was tied for 3rd in the league in redzone TDs last year and has another great chance to get them again this season. 

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Adams is only going into his 4th season, with his 2nd season being derailed by injuries all season. Last year was basically his 2nd full season, and he showed very good production and progress. No reason not to expect him to make another step forward.

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1 hour ago, smetana34 said:

Adams is only going into his 4th season, with his 2nd season being derailed by injuries all season. Last year was basically his 2nd full season, and he showed very good production and progress. No reason not to expect him to make another step forward.

 

Exactly my point. Stats don't tell the whole story... anybody who saw him last year saw he was healthy and finally clicking with Rodgers. He took a step forward last year and should expect the same especially with the hard work he's put in the offseason. 

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18 hours ago, smetana34 said:

I'll eat my hat if Cobb outscores Adams (with no injuries) Cobb has one great season out of 6. The rest have either been riddled by injury or he's massively disappointed. Not to mention he looked terrrrrrrible against Philly last week getting in and out of his breaks.

 

Adams skill set greatly differs from that of Cobb's and he can play any of the 3 positions. He is Jordy's replacement. And his role will continue to increase. Rodgers doesn't throw to TE's very often; never has. Bennett isn't going to vouch as much as people think. Jordy and Adams will get the bulk of the work, the rest will get the scraps.

 

I would like to disagree with you that Rodgers has never thrown to TEs.  Finley is really the only decent TE he has ever played with and when Finely was in his prime, which was short, Rodgers targeted him 71 times in 2009, 93 in 2011, and 88 in 2012.  Granted, those aren't Gronk like target numbers, but they are definitely up there. Finley's career year with the Packers was 55 recs, 767 yds and 8 TDs.  Bennetts career year was 90 recs, 916 yds and 6 TDs.

 

I do think that Bennett is going to eat into the amount of targets that all of the WRs get.  Especially RZ targets.  Last year Adams had 20 tgts and 12 recs inside the 20, of which 10 tgts and 7 recs were inside the 10.  5 of those 7 recs inside the 10 resulted in TDs.  I could easily see Bennett stealing half of those RZ targets.

 

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36 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

Adams should be a borderline WR1 this season. I like him over Jordy

 

Just curious, what do you see in Adams that will make him more productive this season than Jordy?

Edited by dre
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1 hour ago, dre said:

 

I would like to disagree with you that Rodgers has never thrown to TEs.  Finley is really the only decent TE he has ever played with and when Finely was in his prime, which was short, Rodgers targeted him 71 times in 2009, 93 in 2011, and 88 in 2012.  Granted, those aren't Gronk like target numbers, but they are definitely up there. Finley's career year with the Packers was 55 recs, 767 yds and 8 TDs.  Bennetts career year was 90 recs, 916 yds and 6 TDs.

 

I do think that Bennett is going to eat into the amount of targets that all of the WRs get.  Especially RZ targets.  Last year Adams had 20 tgts and 12 recs inside the 20, of which 10 tgts and 7 recs were inside the 10.  5 of those 7 recs inside the 10 resulted in TDs.  I could easily see Bennett stealing half of those RZ targets.

 

Agreed he's had garbage at TE outside of Finley and Cook. Last year with Cook, in the 10 games he played, he average 3 catches, 30 yards, and caught one TD all year. Rodgers didn't make very good use out of having such a mismatch. I think the same with Bennett this year. His impact will be felt more in the attention he draws rather than raw stats, setting up others.

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