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Davante Adams 2017 Season Outlook


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1 hour ago, smetana34 said:

Agreed he's had garbage at TE outside of Finley and Cook. Last year with Cook, in the 10 games he played, he average 3 catches, 30 yards, and caught one TD all year. Rodgers didn't make very good use out of having such a mismatch. I think the same with Bennett this year. His impact will be felt more in the attention he draws rather than raw stats, setting up others.

 

Yes, but you are neglecting to mention Cook's post-season stats which are completely different from his regular season stats.

9/48 vs Giants

11/103/1 vs Cowboys

7/78/1 vs Falcons

 

Also, Cook suffered a high-ankle sprain and who knows how long that lingered and how it affected his performance all season long.  And one could argue it took all of 10 games for Cook to figure out the offense or for the Packers to figure out how to use him.  

 

I also don't think that Cook is as good of a player as Bennett is.  Even though Cook was an upgrade at TE over the JAGS the Packers have had since Finely, Bennett is an upgrade over Cook.  I'm expecting a much better season from Bennett than what Cook had.

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1 hour ago, dre said:

 

Yes, but you are neglecting to mention Cook's post-season stats which are completely different from his regular season stats.

9/48 vs Giants

11/103/1 vs Cowboys

7/78/1 vs Falcons

 

Also, Cook suffered a high-ankle sprain and who knows how long that lingered and how it affected his performance all season long.  And one could argue it took all of 10 games for Cook to figure out the offense or for the Packers to figure out how to use him.  

 

I also don't think that Cook is as good of a player as Bennett is.  Even though Cook was an upgrade at TE over the JAGS the Packers have had since Finely, Bennett is an upgrade over Cook.  I'm expecting a much better season from Bennett than what Cook had.

I question how much of that production was due to injuries. Jordy dealing with the broken rib vs NYG. Adams was playing on one ankle vs DAL and ATL. Allison suffered a leg injury vs DAL and Janis dealt with a quad all postseason. There was 3 healthy bodies: Cobb, Cook, and Rodgers.

 

I do agree with your other two points.

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1 hour ago, burninglegs said:

 

Jeff Janis truthers would disagree. 

Please don't. Lol. Living in central WI, I have to hear about him all the time and how he's the next Jordy Nelson if he was just given a shot. Nevermind the fact the guy can't digest a playbook.

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7 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Not sure how anyone can overthink this one with Adams. He's a beast and Rodgers will always look for him in the endzone due to his size and wingspan.

 

Jordy had 29 RZ targets last year compared to Adam's 20.  Add in Bennett this year and another year under Ty's belt as RB, I think there will be a reduction in Adam's RZ targets this year.

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2 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Not sure how anyone can overthink this one with Adams. He's a beast and Rodgers will always look for him in the endzone due to his size and wingspan.

 

Come on now.  I agree that people are overthinking it, but that's likely due to the fact that he's not a beast.  He's a marginal talent in a fantastic situation.

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On 8/16/2017 at 11:51 PM, ShowStopper said:

 

He didn't get it going until mid season.. your stats back up your argument I won't argue with that, but I'm going with my gut based off what I saw from Adams towards the end of the year. He finally showed what he's capable of and he was quite impressive. His route running was great and he turned into a reliable target for Rodgers. Rodgers you could tell was trusting him more and looking for him often. I believe Adams is hitting his stride and from what I've read in the offseason he is very motivated, even drop some weight so he can be faster. Not to mention he is young so it's taken a little time to grow, but he's trending upward imo. 

1

Season games 1-8: 44 receptions, 465 yards, 6 TDs for 126.5 PPR fantasy points

Season games 9-16: 31 receptions, 532 yards, 6 TDs for 120.2 PPR fantasy points

 

The stats certainly do not back up your argument.

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9 hours ago, OBJfor6 said:

Season games 1-8: 44 receptions, 465 yards, 6 TDs for 126.5 PPR fantasy points

Season games 9-16: 31 receptions, 532 yards, 6 TDs for 120.2 PPR fantasy points

 

The stats certainly do not back up your argument.

 

 

Stats without context dont tell the story, Davante breakout fantasy game was week 6  which coincides with lacey going down in wk5 and the packers going to a full blown passing offense, prior to that he was on benches and waiver wires but not viewed as a viable starter in a fantasy lineup,  Wk6 and after he was putting up consistent double digit points games and he was in lots of lineups as a wr2-3/flex and couldnt be found on any waiver wire.

That context is based on my being a lacey owner and after game 5 i immediately picked up ty mont + davante off the waivers

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1 hour ago, CharlesHustle said:

Owning Adams and Jordy this year, I think you'd have an 80% each week of have that BIG Packer fantasy guy that seems to happen almost weekly 

 

Or draft Adams + Cobb at a much lower cost and guarentee yourself a locked-in WR2

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as long as he/jordy/rodgers stay healthy and catches most of his targets it will be hard for him to be a bust especially with his price tag of right around a 40 overall pick in ppr and standard

i have 0 shares and kinda bummed for that price

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I just don't understand when it comes to people calling for a bust on some guys. Like what exact info leads someone to that convulsion, did Rodgers call around telling everyone hey this Adams kid...not anyone I really want to throw to and last year was just a fluke.

I mean he seems to steadily improve and now I could see if Jordy wasn't there last year but he was, and Adams still got his. Everyone is down on Jordy so wouldn't it make sense that if they're down on Jordy that Adams benefits a bit more perhaps? I just don't quite see what Adams did to deserve such a poor outlook, he seems to have really turned a corner imho

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12 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I just don't understand when it comes to people calling for a bust on some guys. Like what exact info leads someone to that convulsion, did Rodgers call around telling everyone hey this Adams kid...not anyone I really want to throw to and last year was just a fluke.

I mean he seems to steadily improve and now I could see if Jordy wasn't there last year but he was, and Adams still got his. Everyone is down on Jordy so wouldn't it make sense that if they're down on Jordy that Adams benefits a bit more perhaps? I just don't quite see what Adams did to deserve such a poor outlook, he seems to have really turned a corner imho

 

whenever someone has a really high touchdown rate with low usage they are an obvious candidate for regression.  If Adams was in any other offense I would be completely avoiding him but being the presumed #2 WR on an ARod offense seems pretty safe to me.  Also, whenever I get Adams I try to get Cobb in round 9 or 10 to lock up that position.

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The deal with Adams is that he still carries such a poor stigma due to his historically terrible 2015 season..

 

With that said Adams also does not possess any one attribute that would make him a dominate WR in the NFL other than his ability to "go up and get it", something that we got to see glimpses of last season which resulted in his uptick in TDs. His game is going to be reliant on making contested catches and having a continued report with Rodgers.. He is still young and has shown that his confidence has greatly improved so there is a decent chance he takes another step forward.. I'm just not sure what we can really predict as his ceiling however with Rodgers as his QB and the fact that Adams is on the field quite a bit I don't mind the risk of his ADP.

 

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4 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

The deal with Adams is that he still carries such a poor stigma due to his historically terrible 2015 season..

 

With that said Adams also does not possess any one attribute that would make him a dominate WR in the NFL other than his ability to "go up and get it", something that we got to see glimpses of last season which resulted in his uptick in TDs. His game is going to be reliant on making contested catches and having a continued report with Rodgers.. He is still young and has shown that his confidence has greatly improved so there is a decent chance he takes another step forward.. I'm just not sure what we can really predict as his ceiling however with Rodgers as his QB and the fact that Adams is on the field quite a bit I don't mind the risk of his ADP.

 

The kids first step off the line and ability to change direction is as elite as it gets, that's what made him so dangerous in the redzone last year and often why you see him running wide open. It's not his ability to go up and get it; GB doesn't run an offense like that, not since Finley was in town anyway. The kid can jump through the roof, so the ability to do it is there, it just isn't a staple in the Packer offense. His ability to catch contested balls is top notch, you're correct there.

Adams is the future in GB, and is being groomed to take Nelson's spot, just like Nelson was groomed to take it from Jennings, who took it from Driver, who took it from Walker. Those saying (not directed at you MoonBlaster) "he's the new toy; it's no different than Cobb a few years ago" or "he's a marginal talent" well, that's just lazy analysis, if that's what you want to even call it, from guys who haven't watched him play or follow the Packers. Which is fine; no one is going to follow every team. But those opinions are so far off base and need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Adams had a terrible 2nd year that destroyed his confidence. He has regained that, and is entering what is essentially his 3rd season if you consider his 2nd injury-riddled season a loss. 1000 yards and 7 TD's is his floor, with the ability to lead the league in touchdowns.

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

whenever someone has a really high touchdown rate with low usage they are an obvious candidate for regression.  If Adams was in any other offense I would be completely avoiding him but being the presumed #2 WR on an ARod offense seems pretty safe to me.  Also, whenever I get Adams I try to get Cobb in round 9 or 10 to lock up that position.

Yes but it might be only 1 or 2, maybe tds go down and yardage goes up... We have no idea really... It's all a guess. I don't think Adams had such a monster season that he maybe couldn't even do a little better, we really dont know 

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39 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

The kids first step off the line and ability to change direction is as elite as it gets, that's what made him so dangerous in the redzone last year and often why you see him running wide open. It's not his ability to go up and get it; GB doesn't run an offense like that, not since Finley was in town anyway. The kid can jump through the roof, so the ability to do it is there, it just isn't a staple in the Packer offense. His ability to catch contested balls is top notch, you're correct there.

Adams is the future in GB, and is being groomed to take Nelson's spot, just like Nelson was groomed to take it from Jennings, who took it from Driver, who took it from Walker. Those saying (not directed at you MoonBlaster) "he's the new toy; it's no different than Cobb a few years ago" or "he's a marginal talent" well, that's just lazy analysis, if that's what you want to even call it, from guys who haven't watched him play or follow the Packers. Which is fine; no one is going to follow every team. But those opinions are so far off base and need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Adams had a terrible 2nd year that destroyed his confidence. He has regained that, and is entering what is essentially his 3rd season if you consider his 2nd injury-riddled season a loss. 1000 yards and 7 TD's is his floor, with the ability to lead the league in touchdowns.

 

 

I actually agree with this 100%, Adams often showed he can make those contested catches and "wowing" plays in practice but had lacked the confidence to do those things in real games until part way through last season it seems.. I guess what I meant by him lacking "dominating attributes" is that he doesn't really have the elite top end speed or size you come to expect from the top tier WRs in the NFL, but route running and having the report with one of the best QBs in the game can certainly make up for that. While GB doesn't really run many jump ball fade plays Rodgers does feed his WRs tight window passes and that's where Adams next level talents shine.

 

But with that said it's still hard for me to really gauge what his ceiling realistically looks like, that's why I really don't have any complaints with his current ADP.. He is still very young and can easily improve and he still has Jordy around to help roll coverage off him.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

 

I actually agree with this 100%, Adams often showed he can make those contested catches and "wowing" plays in practice but had lacked the confidence to do those things in real games until part way through last season it seems.. I guess what I meant by him lacking "dominating attributes" is that he doesn't really have the elite top end speed or size you come to expect from the top tier WRs in the NFL, but route running and having the report with one of the best QBs in the game can certainly make up for that. While GB doesn't really run many jump ball fade plays Rodgers does feed his WRs tight window passes and that's where Adams next level talents shine.

 

But with that said it's still hard for me to really gauge what his ceiling realistically looks like, that's why I really don't have any complaints with his current ADP.. He is still very young and can easily improve and he still has Jordy around to help roll coverage off him.

 

 

 

Eye test wise, I don't see a great void between Adams and Cooper.  Cooper gets all the publicity, and it shows in his higher ADP, but Adams runs routes as well and gets fed the same way, except Adams has RZ chops that Cooper hasn't yet shown he has.  For the price, I'd take Adams over Cooper all day long.

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Davante just fell to me with the 58th pick.  Hell, i was so surprised I thought I was missing something (turns out I'm not.  people are just pegging him as a bust for no real reason), but what is left out there?  A bunch of guys in their 30s or guys who haven't proven much and/or back up running backs.  Give me the youngster who has shown me no reason that he should regress (outside of maybe touchdowns).  I'm in the same boat where i think 1000 yards and 6-7 TDs is his FLOOR.  All day for a 5th round guy in my book.  I even considered him in the 4th but took keenan allen instead.

 

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Yea Adams was pegged a bust for absolutely no reason, just pulled out of thin air or out of someone's...

Sure maybe he doesn't have as many tds, but that happens to many wideouts. Maybe he has more receptions tho, maybe more yardage... I'm sure Rodgers isn't boycotting Adams out there lol 

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