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Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


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He has a slight regression but I'm not sure if it's him or his QB situation. He dropped a lot of passes from Peyton(2015-2016), and last season, I chalked his lack of production attributed to his QB. 

I'm not sure where I would take him in the draft.

 

Source: The Dallas Morning News - Jon Machota

Dallas Cowboys LB Jaylon Smith (knee) claims he can able to do everything that's been asked of him by the Cowboys coaching and training staffs. He also told reporters there's nothing he was able to do before his knee injury that he can't do now.

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Yea last year was definitely not what are accustomed to with DT. That was also factored into his ADP, as well as it is this year. I see that passing game being more productive this year with the QBs having another year under their belts and McCoy coming back is a big boon to the outlook. I will start to look for him mid 3rd rd.

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yeah depending on how the chips fall I'll be on the lookout for him in the late 3rd/4th. The passing game concerns me but more so than that is ES. He is a great number 2 and (someone can get the stats on this) will outperform DT some weeks. Now that can be said with a lot of 1 and 2s but i feel its more 1.a and 1.b with denver. If the ab's evolved at all he could be a solid value pick though

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Wr1 potential in the 3rd round.

seriously

 

1-McCoy-  he loves the system and has been raving about how good it is to be back where he can "run open all over the field."  The terminology and scheme is one he's intimately familiar with.  

 

2- Joseph-  " We need DT to be dominant every series to be at our best."   To which DT responded how he wants to be the main guy.    He's going to get that opportunity. 

 

3- injury.    It came out this week in an interview how he tweaked his hip the 3rd series of the opening game against Carolina.  Played through it- this dude is tough- but he couldn't beat physical press and cut like normal.    He's now 100%

 

 

 

 

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On 5/27/2017 at 3:43 PM, Impreza178 said:

Wr1 potential in the 3rd round.

seriously

 

1-McCoy-  he loves the system and has been raving about how good it is to be back where he can "run open all over the field."  The terminology and scheme is one he's intimately familiar with.  

 

2- Joseph-  " We need DT to be dominant every series to be at our best."   To which DT responded how he wants to be the main guy.    He's going to get that opportunity. 

 

3- injury.    It came out this week in an interview how he tweaked his hip the 3rd series of the opening game against Carolina.  Played through it- this dude is tough- but he couldn't beat physical press and cut like normal.    He's now 100%

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know, I like that McCoy is back but I just doubt that offense as a whole.  DT has never been the kind of dominant WR who I thought could thrive on a bad offense and he benefited greatly from Peyton.  

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On 5/27/2017 at 5:43 PM, Impreza178 said:

Wr1 potential in the 3rd round.

seriously

 

1-McCoy-  he loves the system and has been raving about how good it is to be back where he can "run open all over the field."  The terminology and scheme is one he's intimately familiar with.  

 

2- Joseph-  " We need DT to be dominant every series to be at our best."   To which DT responded how he wants to be the main guy.    He's going to get that opportunity. 

 

3- injury.    It came out this week in an interview how he tweaked his hip the 3rd series of the opening game against Carolina.  Played through it- this dude is tough- but he couldn't beat physical press and cut like normal.    He's now 100%

 

 

 

 

WR1? No way, not with the QB situation. 

 

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I don't know, I like that McCoy is back but I just doubt that offense as a whole.  DT has never been the kind of dominant WR who I thought could thrive on a bad offense and he benefited greatly from Peyton.  

 

Believe......

 

 

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On one of the last Football Guys podcasts, Cecil Lamy said he recently asked D Thomas about the injury he suffered last year in week 1 and whether it was fully healed and Cecil said something to the effect of Thomas was evasive about it. If I remember the conversation right, Cecil's take was that he is okay right now but it is one of those things that could be reaggravated pretty easily.

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14 minutes ago, Mad_Jens said:

DT's entire situation (QB, health, O-Line) has improved since last year.  I think it's reasonable to say 1,000/5 is his floor, with room for plenty more.  Sign me up for DT all day er' day.  

 

He's been pretty steady even fighting through all the offensive woes and injuries he's dealt with.   I don't understand the comment that he's not a "dominant" wr.  The guy is a physical beast and can outrun just about er' body on the field on those bubble swing passes.   It's a good upside play with a demonstrated floor- a guy to not let slip if you have the chance to grab him in the third. 

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51 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

On one of the last Football Guys podcasts, Cecil Lamy said he recently asked D Thomas about the injury he suffered last year in week 1 and whether it was fully healed and Cecil said something to the effect of Thomas was evasive about it. If I remember the conversation right, Cecil's take was that he is okay right now but it is one of those things that could be reaggravated pretty easily.

Demaryius Thomas spent the early part of the offseason working on getting his hips healthy.

Thomas was bothered by a sore hip for much of 2016. He didn't require surgery, but needed a few months of rest and rehab. "I'll be on top of it," Thomas insisted. Banged up and playing with new, young quarterbacks, Thomas had a down 2016 by his standards, but still ended up the WR19 by total points. He could be a value this season. Apr 11 - 2:40 PM
Source: Jeff Legwold on Twitter
 
Demaryius Thomas says he feels the best he's felt since coming into the NFL.
"This is the best I've felt in my whole career," was Thomas' exact quote. Thomas dealt with a hip issue for all of 2016, getting hurt on literally the first play of the year. Headed into his age-30 season, Thomas is gunning for his sixth-straight 1,000-yard campaign. May 25 - 3:26 PM
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17 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

He's been pretty steady even fighting through all the offensive woes and injuries he's dealt with.   I don't understand the comment that he's not a "dominant" wr.  The guy is a physical beast and can outrun just about er' body on the field on those bubble swing passes.   It's a good upside play with a demonstrated floor- a guy to not let slip if you have the chance to grab him in the third. 

 

I don't think he's dominant at all.  He's not on the same level as the elite WRs, i.e. Brown, OBJ, Julio, AJ, Dez, etc.  He's big and fast but he's never been a dominant WR regardless of his stats.  I still think he's a very good WR but he's more reliant on the quality of his offense than those other guys.  That's why I avoided him at his asking price last year and it worked out well.  I like him in the 4th this year in standard and the 3rd in PPR but give me guys like Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks over him

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15 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I don't think he's dominant at all.  He's not on the same level as the elite WRs, i.e. Brown, OBJ, Julio, AJ, Dez, etc.  He's big and fast but he's never been a dominant WR regardless of his stats.  I still think he's a very good WR but he's more reliant on the quality of his offense than those other guys.  That's why I avoided him at his asking price last year and it worked out well.  I like him in the 4th this year in standard and the 3rd in PPR but give me guys like Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks over him

 

So hes big, fast, and has the stats- but isn't dominant. 

K

 

2014-10-0514_36_53.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I don't think he's dominant at all.  He's not on the same level as the elite WRs, i.e. Brown, OBJ, Julio, AJ, Dez, etc.  He's big and fast but he's never been a dominant WR regardless of his stats.  I still think he's a very good WR but he's more reliant on the quality of his offense than those other guys.  That's why I avoided him at his asking price last year and it worked out well.  I like him in the 4th this year in standard and the 3rd in PPR but give me guys like Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks over him

Could more easily argue that Dez is the least "dominant" of this group, but every situation is different. One could also argue that Brown, Julio and AJG have had more stable QB situations. And really, the only time that DT had a stable QB situation (with Manning) he was one of the MOST dominant receivers.

 

I think we have seen a floor in DT's production. The entire Broncos team had a down year last season. DT was also dealing with little nagging injuries and off-field issues with his mom. And 2-3 of the sharper owners in my main dynasty league were trying to pry away DT with some supposedly sweet offers (one included Keenan Allen and a 2017 1st) so I know where the smart money is betting. DT is undervalued for this upcoming season.

 

Still lots of questions concerning the Denver QB situation, but if it is possible for DT to be a sleeper this season, he is.

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We shall see.  I don't think Denver's offense improved substantially and DT isn't the kind of WR who can succeed without great surroundings.  I would like him early 4th but right now he's going early to mid 3rd

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DT's longevity in the Top 5 WRs in ff is why I wouldn't consider him 'dominate'. Julio,Brown, OBJ, and Dez have always been drafted as WR1s because of their dominance. I'm talking about after rookie season's of course.

DT was drafted as WR2 for two straight seasons. He's in the same tier as A.Robinson.

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2 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I don't think he's dominant at all.  He's not on the same level as the elite WRs, i.e. Brown, OBJ, Julio, AJ, Dez, etc.  He's big and fast but he's never been a dominant WR regardless of his stats.  I still think he's a very good WR but he's more reliant on the quality of his offense than those other guys.  That's why I avoided him at his asking price last year and it worked out well.  I like him in the 4th this year in standard and the 3rd in PPR but give me guys like Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks over him

 

I'm not sure I understand your take on him.  He may not be at the level of Brown and Julio but OBJ has only played a few years, Dez has been injured too much with only a few 1,000 yard seasons and AJG's numbers are very similar to his.

 

Other than Thomas' first two years he's been over 1,000 yards his entire career, how many other WRs are doing that?  If you actually look at his career compared to all the other guys you listed you'll see that he has more 1,000 yard seasons than OBJ, Dez and even Julio.  Not only that but he has the same amount of 1,000 yard seasons as Brown and AJG.

 

I'm not sure what his asking price was for you last year but it was about the middle of the 3rd round for most leagues.  He was usually taken as 18th WR in drafts last year yet only 10 WRs finished with more yards than him.  I'd say he played above his draft value.  I took him in my auction last year as my 4th WR and he killed it as my flex player.

 

What really blows my mind is that you'd rather have Allen over him.  Cooks makes some sense, but Allen?  Allen has never played a full season in his 4 year career and only went over 1,000 yards in his first year.  Allen was going in the beginning of the 2nd round last year but I bet his owners were happy they took him over Thomas instead.  What's hilarious is that Thomas is going even later in mocks drafts this year than he did last year and somehow Allen is still going before him earlier in the 3rd round.

 

So, would you still rather have Allen over Thomas in the 3rd round?  All ADPs used were from PPR for reference.

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1 hour ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

DT's longevity in the Top 5 WRs in ff is why I wouldn't consider him 'dominate'. Julio,Brown, OBJ, and Dez have always been drafted as WR1s because of their dominance. I'm talking about after rookie season's of course.

DT was drafted as WR2 for two straight seasons. He's in the same tier as A.Robinson.

 

I don't get why Dez keeps getting talked about as being elite or a stud.  I know the guy is talented but he just hasn't put up the number consistently.  He is incredibly overvalued in fantasy football whereas Thomas is undervalued.  The numbers don't lie, give them a look.

 

How can you compare him to a guy that's only played three seasons and only one was over 1,000 yards?  Robinson hasn't even missed many games so he can't blame lack of production on that.  All we know is that Allen had one really good year which doesn't tell us much. 

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I don't get why Dez keeps getting talked about as being elite or a stud.  I know the guy is talented but he just hasn't put up the number consistently.  He is incredibly overvalued in fantasy football whereas Thomas is undervalued.  The numbers don't lie, give them a look.

 

How can you compare him to a guy that's only played three seasons and only one was over 1,000 yards?  Robinson hasn't even missed many games so he can't blame lack of production on that.  All we know is that Allen had one really good year which doesn't tell us much. 

Dez is always drafted as a stud. I know his numbers don't show for the past two seasons but that's due to injuries and a carousel of QBs in 2015,other than that, he has been WR1. 

 

DT had one breakout season with Peyton?

The season he got paid, he was dropping balls and didn't finish in WR1 tier if I'm not mistaken. 

 

I never thought Robinson was good but that's the tier that DT is in. They both only had one great season.  

 

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Just now, TX Babe Ruth said:

Dez is always drafted as a stud. I know his numbers don't show for the past two seasons but that's due to injuries and a carousel of QBs in 2015,other than that, he has been WR1. 

 

DT had one breakout season with Peyton?

The season he got paid, he was dropping balls and didn't finish in WR1 tier if I'm not mistaken. 

 

I never thought Robinson was good but that's the tier that DT is in. They both only had one great season.  

 

 

You're way off on this one. DT has had 5 straight 1000 yard seasons, 4 of which he was a WR1 and the other he was a WR2. Three of those seasons his floor was 90/1400/10. This all despite playing with QBs ranging from great Peyton, bad Peyton, Osweiler, Siemian, and Lynch. 

 

That is FAR more than "one great season".  I'd draft DT over Dez and Robinson without hesitation.

 

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16 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Dez is always drafted as a stud. I know his numbers don't show for the past two seasons but that's due to injuries and a carousel of QBs in 2015,other than that, he has been WR1. 

 

DT had one breakout season with Peyton?

The season he got paid, he was dropping balls and didn't finish in WR1 tier if I'm not mistaken. 

 

I never thought Robinson was good but that's the tier that DT is in. They both only had one great season.  

 

 

Are you just saying things you think you remember or are you actually looking up stats?  Just because Dez gets drafted as a WR1 every year does not make him one, it makes him overrated.  Allen Robinson finished as a top WR once out of a three year career so I don't think he really qualifies as any player to be compared to.

 

So far I've mostly just been looking at ADPs and total yards while not actually looking at fantasy standings.  If I look at how Thomas finished in my fantasy league, since that's the data I have available, I see that he finished as the WR13 last year, WR13 the year before, WR2 the year for that and then WR3 the year before that.  So the last two years he was just barely outside of being a WR1, in fact he missed both years by less that 3 points.  The other two years he was in the top 5.  There are not that many WRs that have been that consistent, not even Jordy, Dez or AJG.

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52 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I'm not sure I understand your take on him.  He may not be at the level of Brown and Julio but OBJ has only played a few years, Dez has been injured too much with only a few 1,000 yard seasons and AJG's numbers are very similar to his.

 

Other than Thomas' first two years he's been over 1,000 yards his entire career, how many other WRs are doing that?  If you actually look at his career compared to all the other guys you listed you'll see that he has more 1,000 yard seasons than OBJ, Dez and even Julio.  Not only that but he has the same amount of 1,000 yard seasons as Brown and AJG.

 

I'm not sure what his asking price was for you last year but it was about the middle of the 3rd round for most leagues.  He was usually taken as 18th WR in drafts last year yet only 10 WRs finished with more yards than him.  I'd say he played above his draft value.  I took him in my auction last year as my 4th WR and he killed it as my flex player.

 

What really blows my mind is that you'd rather have Allen over him.  Cooks makes some sense, but Allen?  Allen has never played a full season in his 4 year career and only went over 1,000 yards in his first year.  Allen was going in the beginning of the 2nd round last year but I bet his owners were happy they took him over Thomas instead.  What's hilarious is that Thomas is going even later in mocks drafts this year than he did last year and somehow Allen is still going before him earlier in the 3rd round.

 

So, would you still rather have Allen over Thomas in the 3rd round?  All ADPs used were from PPR for reference.

 

All of those great DT seasons you're referencing came during Peyton's ridiculous years in Denver, with the exception of Manning's last year where DT still put up good numbers but both of his yardage and TD totals dropped off.  I think he's a solid WR who put up elite numbers given his optimal situation and now that that situation is sub-optimal he'll continue to put up similar numbers to what he did last year (80/1000/6).

 

Allen showed both his rookie year and at the start of last year he has the potential to be an elite WR if he stays healthy.  He has a similar talent level as DT (you can point out his numbers in Peyton Manning's offenses all you like) and is in a much better situation.  I'd rather take the chance on a guy who could be elite than draft DT whom I think is limited in that offense.

 

Why do you think DT will do better than he did last year?  I know McCoy is back and Siemian has another year in the offense (albeit a different offense) but that is not a significant enough of a change for me.  If anything, his situation was better last year in the Kubiak offense which emphasizes the X receiver.

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28 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

You're way off on this one. DT has had 5 straight 1000 yard seasons, 4 of which he was a WR1 and the other he was a WR2. Three of those seasons his floor was 90/1400/10. This all despite playing with QBs ranging from great Peyton, bad Peyton, Osweiler, Siemian, and Lynch. 

 

That is FAR more than "one great season".  I'd draft DT over Dez and Robinson without hesitation.

 

 

You're being misleading regarding his QB situation.  All of those years besides the last two he played in arguably the most productive offenses of all time.  Yes, he still got over a 1000 yards even without that version of Peyton but his numbers declined both seasons.  

 

I think hes he's a safe option at WR, especially in PPR, but I just don't see him coming close to his old numbers in this offense.

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