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Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


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14 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Truth is what someone believes is true even without substantial evidence as long as the person believes it's substantial.

For example: Science and History..it's all opinionated by facts. 

 

Touche

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54 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

You're being misleading regarding his QB situation.  All of those years besides the last two he played in arguably the most productive offenses of all time.  Yes, he still got over a 1000 yards even without that version of Peyton but his numbers declined both seasons.  

 

I think hes he's a safe option at WR, especially in PPR, but I just don't see him coming close to his old numbers in this offense.

 

Even without great Peyton DT has run circles around Dez the past 2 years, and was better than Robinson last year despite seeing fewer targets. 

 

DT is a QB-proof proven stud with a WR2 floor and low-end WR1 ceiling. Add to that the return of McCoy and he could easily finish as a WR1 for the 5th time in the past 6 seasons. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Well, not everything is opinion on here.  Some will use facts and some will use opinions.  I'm fine with opinions when they are backed up by something substantial.  I will struggle to agree with someone's opinion when I know facts don't support it though.

 

Like I said, it's difficult for me to use stats, other than the his stats from last year and from his two years prior to Peyton (which I am not holding against him given Tebow) because my argument is that those stats were inflated given the offense.  Is that the only way you judge a player, based on his stats?

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

Even without great Peyton DT has run circles around Dez the past 2 years, and was better than Robinson last year despite seeing fewer targets. 

 

DT is a QB-proof proven stud with a WR2 floor and low-end WR1 ceiling. Add to that the return of McCoy and he could easily finish as a WR1 for the 5th time in the past 6 seasons. 

 

 

I'm assuming when you say "QB-proof proven stud with a WR2 floor and low-end WR1 ceiling" you are talking about PPR, and I agree with you if you are.

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

I'm assuming when you say "QB-proof proven stud with a WR2 floor and low-end WR1 ceiling" you are talking about PPR, and I agree with you if you are.

 

Yes I am, but even in standard he is a rock solid WR2 at worst; the ceiling is definitely lower in standard, but he is still a stud regardless. 

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

Like I said, it's difficult for me to use stats, other than the his stats from last year and from his two years prior to Peyton (which I am not holding against him given Tebow) because my argument is that those stats were inflated given the offense.  Is that the only way you judge a player, based on his stats?

 

No but stats can be telling.  I look at his career stats to see if a player is consistent and stayed healthy.  Things like averages can be important.  I also look at where a player finishes in my league every year.  I look at how many points they average per game.  I pay attention to them scoring consistently each week and not just have monster games followed up by duds.  I will look to see what other players are on the team and the type of offense the team is running.

 

You look at Thomas and see a guy who declined due to a poor offense with poor QB play.  I see a player that still managed to put up a good season in spite of having a poor offense and QB play.  You see a guy that's dropping in ADP and think he's not good because of it.  I see a guy that just keeps becoming a bigger steal in drafts.

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

No but stats can be telling.  I look at his career stats to see if a player is consistent and stayed healthy.  Things like averages can be important.  I also look at where a player finishes in my league every year.  I look at how many points they average per game.  I pay attention to them scoring consistently each week and not just have monster games followed up by duds.  I will look to see what other players are on the team and the type of offense the team is running.

 

You look at Thomas and see a guy who declined due to a poor offense with poor QB play.  I see a player that still managed to put up a good season in spite of having a poor offense and QB play.  You see a guy that's dropping in ADP and think he's not good because of it.  I see a guy that just keeps becoming a bigger steal in drafts.

 

My point is that his stats from those Peyton years are not indicative of his upside this year.  1000/5 is a fine stat line, just I do not want to spend a third round pick on that in standard leagues.  If I want a safe 1000/5 then I'll just take someone like Willie Snead later on. 

 

And before you say it, I know he put up 1400/10 a few seasons ago but like I've said (and unfortunately I need to make this clear that it is my opinion) I do not see a high upside with him to go much beyond his numbers from last year.

Edited by Chwf3rd
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2 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

My point is that his stats from those Peyton years are not indicative of his upside this year.  1000/5 is a fine stat line, just I do not want to spend a third round pick on that in standard leagues.  If I want a safe 1000/5 then I'll just take someone like Willie Snead later on. 

 

His ADP is very similar to last year, if anything it might be slightly lower.  So Thomas will most likely go right at the beginning of the 4th round or right at the end of the 3rd.  If he puts up the same stats as last year he will  be producing at what a 3rd round pick should be doing if not better.  Not only does he have a great chance at doing what he did last year but we all know he's capable of doing better.  Even if all he did was gain 150 more yards and a TD he'd finish with over 1,200 yards and 6 TDs.

 

The key is to look at the other options in the 3rd and 4th rounds and determine which players offer what Thomas can consistently or is their upside that much higher that it's worth taking them instead.  For me, I want my first few players drafted to have very high floors.  I'd rather save the high ceiling, riskier players for the mid rounds.  The great thing with Thomas is that he has a high floor yet still has a pretty high ceiling.

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It seems some are going by standard scoring so I'll list the guys going ahead of Thomas in that format right now.

 

8 2.06 Dez Bryant WR DAL 6 17.7 2.8 1.10 3.04 391
9 2.06 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 11 18.0 2.8 1.08 2.12 465
10 2.10 Amari Cooper WR OAK 10 22.0 3.0 1.10 3.08 386
11 2.10 Brandin Cooks WR NE 9 22.4 3.5 2.01 4.01 334
12 2.12 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 7 23.7 3.5 1.12 3.10 360
13 3.03 Doug Baldwin WR SEA 6 26.6 4.0 2.03 4.06 316
14 3.06 Alshon Jeffery WR PHI 10 30.0 3.8 2.06 4.05 381
15 3.08 Allen Robinson WR JAC 8 32.5 3.8 2.11 4.10 428
16 3.10 Davante Adams WR GB 8 34.2 4.7 2.10 4.10 364
17 3.12 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 6 35.6 4.0 2.12 4.10 295
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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

His ADP is very similar to last year, if anything it might be slightly lower.  So Thomas will most likely go right at the beginning of the 4th round or right at the end of the 3rd.  If he puts up the same stats as last year he will  be producing at what a 3rd round pick should be doing if not better.  Not only does he have a great chance at doing what he did last year but we all know he's capable of doing better.  Even if all he did was gain 150 more yards and a TD he'd finish with over 1,200 yards and 6 TDs.

 

The key is to look at the other options in the 3rd and 4th rounds and determine which players offer what Thomas can consistently or is their upside that much higher that it's worth taking them instead.  For me, I want my first few players drafted to have very high floors.  I'd rather save the high ceiling, riskier players for the mid rounds.  The great thing with Thomas is that he has a high floor yet still has a pretty high ceiling.

 

We disagree on the ceiling then.  You can use the same "even if all he did was gain 150 more yards and a TD..." with almost any player, so I don't understand why that is helpful at all. 

 

If I only get 1000/5 from my 3rd round pick I'll be upset.  Just because he has a high probability of finishing as WR19 again doesn't mean he should be drafted there.  For instance, in standard, Darren Sproles finished as RB30 and he'll probably finish in the same spot this year.  However, that does not mean that Sproles is going to be my RB30 in my rankings, ahead of guys like Kareem Hunt and Joe Williams who have a higher chance of finishing outside the top 30 but also have a much higher chance of being a weekly starter for me. 

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5 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

We disagree on the ceiling then.  You can use the same "even if all he did was gain 150 more yards and a TD..." with almost any player, so I don't understand why that is helpful at all. 

 

If I only get 1000/5 from my 3rd round pick I'll be upset.  Just because he has a high probability of finishing as WR19 again doesn't mean he should be drafted there.  For instance, in standard, Darren Sproles finished as RB30 and he'll probably finish in the same spot this year.  However, that does not mean that Sproles is going to be my RB30 in my rankings, ahead of guys like Kareem Hunt and Joe Williams who have a higher chance of finishing outside the top 30 but also have a much higher chance of being a weekly starter for me. 

 

Look at the list I posted above and tell me which guys you would rather take ahead of Thomas in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  I see 5 guys that I know I wouldn't want ahead of him at those draft positions.

 

The reason I said that is because I think last year was pretty much his floor so I expect him to have a better year.  I don't even think he has to have that much better of a year either considering where I can draft him.  That's why I gave the 150 yards and TD, because just that little jump would be plenty to make him more than worth a late 3rd round pick.

Edited by Hawkeye21
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45 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Even without great Peyton DT has run circles around Dez the past 2 years, and was better than Robinson last year despite seeing fewer targets. 

 

DT is a QB-proof proven stud with a WR2 floor and low-end WR1 ceiling. Add to that the return of McCoy and he could easily finish as a WR1 for the 5th time in the past 6 seasons. 

 

 

It will take an injury (and even then, as we saw last season) to keep him out of the top 12-15.  The Willie Snead comp. is hilarious!  One is a tall possession receiver with some RZ value vs a big, fast, DOMINANT wr1 who can burn you for 70 yards or put you on or butt.   Snead has never put up 1000 yards or 5 tds.   DT has done it 4 seasons straight.    But please...more of this talk as I want to nab DT in the third in as many drafts as possible. 

 

DT is Willie Snead.......:rolleyes:

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

It seems some are going by standard scoring so I'll list the guys going ahead of Thomas in that format right now.

 

8 2.06 Dez Bryant WR DAL 6 17.7 2.8 1.10 3.04 391  
9 2.06 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 11 18.0 2.8 1.08 2.12 465  
10 2.10 Amari Cooper WR OAK 10 22.0 3.0 1.10 3.08 386  
11 2.10 Brandin Cooks WR NE 9 22.4 3.5 2.01 4.01 334  
12 2.12 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 7 23.7 3.5 1.12 3.10 360  
13 3.03 Doug Baldwin WR SEA 6 26.6 4.0 2.03 4.06 316  
14 3.06 Alshon Jeffery WR PHI 10 30.0 3.8 2.06 4.05 381  
15 3.08 Allen Robinson WR JAC 8 32.5 3.8 2.11 4.10 428  
16 3.10 Davante Adams WR GB 8 34.2 4.7 2.10 4.10 364  
17 3.12 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 6 35.6 4.0 2.12 4.10 295  

 

Give me all of those guys above DT in standard.

 

Dez - struggled with injuries the last few years but showed a connection with Dak towards the end of the year.

 

TY - great offense, similar floor as DT with a higher ceiling (see last year)

 

Amari - similar floor as DT w/ higher ceiling, plays in great offense on the rise, new OC who plans to feature him more

 

Cooks - floor of 1000/8 and is going to another great offense on a team that just gave up a 1st round pick for him

 

DeAndre - not a very different floor than DTs (954/4 vs 1083/5) and just showed a year ago that he can put up elite numbers with a bad QB.  Similar value as DT to me

 

Baldwin - two straight seasons of at least 1100/7 in the same offense

 

Jeffery - history of being relatively QB-proof and now should easily be the #1 target with a young QB.

 

Robinson - he's also close with DT for me but given the year he just had in 2015 with the same QB and his age I would rather bet on his upside

 

Adams - looks to be a main target with Aaron Rodgers

 

Watkins - pretty much exactly even with DT for me.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

It will take an injury (and even then, as we saw last season) to keep him out of the top 12-15.  The Willie Snead comp. is hilarious!  One is a tall possession receiver with some RZ value vs a big, fast, DOMINANT wr1 who can burn you for 70 yards or put you on or butt.   Snead has never put up 1000 yards or 5 tds.   DT has done it 4 seasons straight.    But please...more of this talk as I want to nab DT in the third in as many drafts as possible. 

 

DT is Willie Snead.......:rolleyes:

 

nobody is comparing them as players, just as probable stat lines.

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

Give me all of those guys above DT in standard.

 

Dez - struggled with injuries the last few years but showed a connection with Dak towards the end of the year.

 

TY - great offense, similar floor as DT with a higher ceiling (see last year)

 

Amari - similar floor as DT w/ higher ceiling, plays in great offense on the rise, new OC who plans to feature him more

 

Cooks - floor of 1000/8 and is going to another great offense on a team that just gave up a 1st round pick for him

 

DeAndre - not a very different floor than DTs (954/4 vs 1083/5) and just showed a year ago that he can put up elite numbers with a bad QB.  Similar value as DT to me

 

Baldwin - two straight seasons of at least 1100/7 in the same offense

 

Jeffery - history of being relatively QB-proof and now should easily be the #1 target with a young QB.

 

Robinson - he's also close with DT for me but given the year he just had in 2015 with the same QB and his age I would rather bet on his upside

 

Adams - looks to be a main target with Aaron Rodgers

 

Watkins - pretty much exactly even with DT for me.

 

 

 

 

I think these are ridiculous to have above Thomas.  

 

Dez is an extremely risky pick to take in the beginning of the 2nd round.

 

Cooper finished right behind Thomas the last two years yet he's going over a full round ahead of him.  Cooper hasn't even been the best WR on his team.

 

Hopkins is in the same boat as Thomas and we thought he could perform regardless of QB but we were proved wrong last year.  I expect to see a bounce back but his ceiling is just the same as Thomas' yet he's going a full round ahead of him.

 

Jeffery had a decent QB in Cutler.  Cutler force fed him the ball and when he wasn't playing Jeffery's numbers dropped.  I think Jeffery is very talented but he's too risky for me to take in the middle of the 3rd ahead of Thomas.

 

Not even sure why Robinson needs to be argued.  He had one outlier year so far.  He hasn't proved he can perform with poor QB play.  He's going a half round ahead of Thomas.

 

I don't see any upside in Watkins in the 3rd round.  He had one good season and that was his rookie year.  He has injury problems and he's on a crappy passing team.  If he were on a different team I'd like him better.  Terrible value in late in the 3rd round.

 

None of these guys offer the value that Thomas does especially where he is going in standard drafts right now, which is 4.1.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

About as probable as OBJ and Robert Woods putting up the same stat lines.

 

I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he was saying he liked Snead's value more that Thomas' based on ADP.  I don't see why he wouldn't just draft both.

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1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

you don't think Snead has a good chance of getting to 1000/5?

 

It's very possible but I think that's more of his ceiling where that's most likely Thomas' floor.  Snead was targeted more last year and had more receptions yet ended with fewer yards.  He did have one more TD though.

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I think these are ridiculous to have above Thomas.  

 

Dez is an extremely risky pick to take in the beginning of the 2nd round.

 

Cooper finished right behind Thomas the last two years yet he's going over a full round ahead of him.  Cooper hasn't even been the best WR on his team.

 

Hopkins is in the same boat as Thomas and we thought he could perform regardless of QB but we were proved wrong last year.  I expect to see a bounce back but his ceiling is just the same as Thomas' yet he's going a full round ahead of him.

 

Jeffery had a decent QB in Cutler.  Cutler force fed him the ball and when he wasn't playing Jeffery's numbers dropped.  I think Jeffery is very talented but he's too risky for me to take in the middle of the 3rd ahead of Thomas.

 

Not even sure why Robinson needs to be argued.  He had one outlier year so far.  He hasn't proved he can perform with poor QB play.  He's going a half round ahead of Thomas.

 

I don't see any upside in Watkins in the 3rd round.  He had one good season and that was his rookie year.  He has injury problems and he's on a crappy passing team.  If he were on a different team I'd like him better.  Terrible value in late in the 3rd round.

 

None of these guys offer the value that Thomas does especially where he is going in standard drafts right now, which is 4.1.

 

 

 

QUALIFIER: I have been talking about standard, and I think based on your post you're going off of PPR (where I said I like DT in the early-mid 3rd so there is no argument there).

 

Dez - I don't like Dez at his current ADP but that doesn't mean I wouldn't take him above DT.

 

Coop - he finished above DT in standard

 

Hopkins - again, I have them close with Hopkins a little further ahead. One benefit Hopkins has is that he doesn't need to compete with targets with Emmanuel Sanders

 

Jeffery - I like the Eagles offense more than Denver's offense and Jeffrey is the only WR option in town

 

Robinson - I believe in the talent first of all, he's still incredibly young, and he has shown that he can produce with Bortles as his QB, again, I also have him close with DT

 

Watkins - Another guy I have about even with DT.  The injuries scare me to death but I believe in his talent and there is an argument that he was still recovering from his foot injury last year and should be fully healed for this season.

 

I would rather take the home run swing in round 3 with any of these guys, all of whom I think have a chance of finishing as a top 8 WR.

 

 

Edited by Chwf3rd
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4 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

QUALIFIER: I have been talking about standard, and I think based on your post you're going off of PPR (where I said I like DT in the early-mid 3rd so there is no argument there).

 

Dez - I don't like Dez at his current ADP but that doesn't mean I wouldn't take him above DT.

 

Coop - he finished above DT in standard

 

Hopkins - again, I have them close with Hopkins a little further ahead. One benefit Hopkins has is that he doesn't need to compete with targets with Emmanuel Sanders

 

Jeffery - I like the Eagles offense more than Denver's offense and Jeffrey is the only WR option in town

 

Robinson - I believe in the talent first of all, he's still incredibly young, and he has shown that he can produce with Bortles as his QB, again, I also have him close with DT

 

Watkins - Another guy I have about even with DT.  The injuries scare me to death but I believe in his talent and there is an argument that he was still recovering from his foot injury last year and should be fully healed for this season.

 

I would rather take the home run swing in round 3 with any of these guys, all of whom I think have a chance of finishing as a top 8 WR.

 

 

 

I noted in the post with the first list of players that I noticed you were referring to standard so all of these ADPs are from standard mocks done on FCC.  Thomas's current ADP in standard mocks on FFC is 4.1.

Edited by Hawkeye21
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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I noted in the post with the first list of players that I noticed you were referring to standard so all of these ADPs are from standard mocks done on FCC.  Thomas's current ADP in standard mocks on FFC is 4.1.

 

So when you were referring to Coop finishing behind DT you meant the last two years combined?  If true, that seems a little unfair given that Coop was a rookie two years ago.

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

So when you were referring to Coop finishing behind DT you meant the last two years combined?  If true, that seems a little unfair given that Coop was a rookie two years ago.

 

No.  The ADPs were from standard.  I made the mistake of looking at where they each finished in my league which is .5 PPR so that put Thomas slightly ahead of Cooper.  Without the PPR it moves Cooper ahead of Thomas but I still don't think it's enough take Cooper at 2.10 which is where he's going now.

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15 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

you don't think Snead has a good chance of getting to 1000/5?

 

Best chance he's ever had.   But we are still talking the second third and some games fourth option for Brees.   He spreads the wealth and they have a number of comparable options.    Im sure I will have some shares of Snead this season because, like DT, it's potentially a good value.     But comparing a possible ceiling with the floor of a DT is apples and oranges.   They are nowhere near the same talent level, athletic ability, or target share.   As a diehard Broncos fan its fully expected for DT to excel in McCoys return.   He can do it in so many ways.  

 

 

 

 

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