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Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


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I'll admit that while doing mocks I just went with the flow and found myself taking WRs that were ranked higher.  After doing all that digging around today I think I'll be taking Thomas again if his ADP stays the same.

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These are my standard WR ranks at the moment:

 

1. ABrown

2. Julio

3. OBJ

4. AJGreen

5. MEvans

6. Jordy

7. TYHilton

8. MThomas

9. Amari

10. Dez

11. Brandin Cooks

12. Doug Baldwin

13. KAllen

14. AJeffery

15. DHopkins

16. ARobinson

17. DAdams

18. MCrabtree

19. DThomas

20. SDiggs

21. SWatkins

 

Honestly, after Baldwin I would feel bad drafting a lot of those guys in the early 3rd

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3 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

And the Brandon Marshall comparison is off base, Marshall dominated for years with sub-par QB play while DT hasn't shown he can do that yet (yes he had 1300 yards during Peyton's last year but struggled last year).  

 

Marshal had a 4.5 year bromance with Cutler. Thomas was Good Peyton Manning's target hog for 3 years, 4 years if you count TWD Peyton Manning.

 

Also, Marshall averaged almost a full target per game more than DT in his first seven years. And if you bother to look back at their careers they've both been in comparable situations overall regarding surrounding talent, experienced players, etc.

 

You have to give weight to the fact that if BMarsh did lack a comparable wingman lining up opposite in certain seasons, it just meant he was relentlessly targeted by his QB.

 

 

First seven years for each player, average per season.

 

 

           
B. Marshall
G Rec Yds Y/G YPC 100+ gms TD
107 87.4 1107.9 72.1 13.1 3.7 6.4

 

D. Thomas

G Rec Yds Y/G YPC 100+ gms TD
101 78.0 1100.6 72.5 14.3 4.4 7.4

 

 

Edited by pikerbkb
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Just now, pikerbkb said:

 

Marshal had a 4.5 year bromance with Cutler. Thomas was Good Peyton Manning's target hog for 3 years, 4 years if you count TWD Peyton Manning.

 

Also, Marshall averaged almost a full target per game more than DT. And if you bother to look back at their careers they've both been in comparable situations overall regarding surrounding talent, experienced players, etc.

 

You have to give weight to the fact that if BMarsh did lack a comparable wingman lining up opposite in certain seasons, it just meant he was relentlessly targeted by his QB.

 

 

First seven years for each player, average per season.

 

 

           
B. Marshall
G Rec Yds Y/G YPC 100+ gms TD
107 87.4 1107.9 72.1 13.1 3.7 6.4

 

D. Thomas

G Rec Yds Y/G YPC 100+ gms TD
101 78.0 1100.6 72.5 14.3 4.4 7.4

 

 

 

First, there are differences between players regardless of stats.  Lets say that Antonio Brown and Randy Moss end up with similar yards/tds per season, that does not mean that they are similar types of players.  Marshall and DT are both big with inconsistent hands but that's where the similarities stop.  DT wins with speed, Marshall wins through physicality.  I would say that Marshall's style of play lends itself to success with bad QBs moreso than most WRs.

 

Second, comparing Cutler to Manning is a joke.  Those 3.5 years with Peyton represented one of the best, if not the best, offensive runs of all time.  Cutler was passable but not in the same stratosphere as Peyton during those years.  Lets first see DT put up a 1st round season without the benefit of Peyton before we make these comparisons please.

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You don't need very good QB play for DT to be effective, a lot of his passes are caught near the line of scrimmage.  One of the most consistent options you'll find at the position, you just wish he did more with his red zone targets.  

 

I don't think anyone is saying he should be going in the first round, and I care even less about comparisons to Marshall.  

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3 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

First, there are differences between players regardless of stats.  Lets say that Antonio Brown and Randy Moss end up with similar yards/tds per season, that does not mean that they are similar types of players.  Marshall and DT are both big with inconsistent hands but that's where the similarities stop.  DT wins with speed, Marshall wins through physicality.  I would say that Marshall's style of play lends itself to success with bad QBs moreso than most WRs.

 

Second, comparing Cutler to Manning is a joke.  Those 3.5 years with Peyton represented one of the best, if not the best, offensive runs of all time.  Cutler was passable but not in the same stratosphere as Peyton during those years.  Lets first see DT put up a 1st round season without the benefit of Peyton before we make these comparisons please.

But Marshall had to share the wealth with Decker, Sanders, Orange Julius, Welker, blah, blah. Cutler just needed to play catch with Marshall all day. Follow the targets.

 

Would have to agree with you that they win in different ways, that for sure. But they are both similar of size and shape and if you use the Pokemon Showdown Battle Simulator they both come out as champions.

 

This is turning out to be a battle of who has more free time so I will yield.

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2 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

These are my standard WR ranks at the moment:

 

1. ABrown

2. Julio

3. OBJ

4. AJGreen

5. MEvans

6. Jordy

7. TYHilton

8. MThomas

9. Amari

10. Dez

11. Brandin Cooks

12. Doug Baldwin

13. KAllen

14. AJeffery

15. DHopkins

16. ARobinson

17. DAdams

18. MCrabtree

19. DThomas

20. SDiggs

21. SWatkins

 

Honestly, after Baldwin I would feel bad drafting a lot of those guys in the early 3rd

I agree with this list, except, I would exchange Dez and M.Thomas. I'd probably put Dez ahead of TYHilton.

Dez

TY Hilton

Amari

M.Thomas...

 

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2 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I agree with this list, except, I would exchange Dez and M.Thomas. I'd probably put Dez ahead of TYHilton.

Dez

TY Hilton

Amari

M.Thomas...

 

Do you play standard or ppr?

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14 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

These are my standard WR ranks at the moment:

 

1. ABrown

2. Julio

3. OBJ

4. AJGreen

5. MEvans

6. Jordy

7. TYHilton

8. MThomas

9. Amari

10. Dez

11. Brandin Cooks

12. Doug Baldwin

13. KAllen

14. AJeffery

15. DHopkins

16. ARobinson

17. DAdams

18. MCrabtree

19. DThomas

20. SDiggs

21. SWatkins

 

Honestly, after Baldwin I would feel bad drafting a lot of those guys in the early 3rd

 

Allen is WAY too high for standard leagues.  He has almost zero TD upside.  Probably the lowest TD upside of any of those 21 WRs. 

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45 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Allen is WAY too high for standard leagues.  He has almost zero TD upside.  Probably the lowest TD upside of any of those 21 WRs. 

 

Maybe but he also has the highest likelihood of finishing as a WR1 of that group as long as he stays healthy

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5 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Maybe but he also has the highest likelihood of finishing as a WR1 of that group as long as he stays healthy

 

Why?  I'm not saying he doesn't but I see people say how certain players have a higher likelihood to finish as a WR1 but I haven't seen much reasoning behind it.  It is just a feeling or are there actual reasons as to why?  We need to start adding more depth to the reasons why we think certain players will outperform others.

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6 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Maybe but he also has the highest likelihood of finishing as a WR1 of that group as long as he stays healthy

 

Not in standard leagues. His ceiling AND floor are lower than DT's in standard. He's never had more than 1,050 yards receiving in any of his 4 NFL seasons. Tyrell Williams topped that mark in just his 2nd season last year. 

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not in standard leagues. His ceiling AND floor are lower than DT's in standard. He's never had more than 1,050 yards receiving in any of his 4 NFL seasons. Tyrell Williams topped that mark in just his 2nd season last year. 

 

 

I would disagree.  Besides from his 2nd season, Allen has been a WR1 in standard when healthy (granted its in a limited sample size), in 2015 he was on pace for about 1450/8.  I don't think Mike Williams or Tyrell Williams will eat that much into that production and I think the Chargers offense is in for a great year.  Obviously it's still really early so if reports from camp show that Allen is recovering slowly then I'll move him down.

 

Ive already made my points regarding DT but I don't think he has a 1450/8 season in him in the current version of the Denver offense.

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7 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I would disagree.  Besides from his 2nd season, Allen has been a WR1 in standard when healthy (granted its in a limited sample size), in 2015 he was on pace for about 1450/8.  I don't think Mike Williams or Tyrell Williams will eat that much into that production and I think the Chargers offense is in for a great year.  Obviously it's still really early so if reports from camp show that Allen is recovering slowly then I'll move him down.

 

Ive already made my points regarding DT but I don't think he has a 1450/8 season in him in the current version of the Denver offense.

 

In 2015 Allen was only healthy while on an unsustainable pace (while Gates was suspended). The fact remains that he has never topped 1,050 yards in a season and has missed 23 of his team's last 24 games. Easily the worst receiver on that list for standard leagues.  He was not a WR1 in PPG in 2013, 14 or 16, and missed half the season in 2015. 

 

In contrast, DT's WORST season over that same timespan was 1,083 yards. No comparison. 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I would disagree.  Besides from his 2nd season, Allen has been a WR1 in standard when healthy (granted its in a limited sample size), in 2015 he was on pace for about 1450/8.  I don't think Mike Williams or Tyrell Williams will eat that much into that production and I think the Chargers offense is in for a great year.  Obviously it's still really early so if reports from camp show that Allen is recovering slowly then I'll move him down.

 

Ive already made my points regarding DT but I don't think he has a 1450/8 season in him in the current version of the Denver offense.

 

I don't think it's possible for Allen to get the amount of targets he was getting in 2015.  There are just too many other weapons on the team that will get targets as well.  Can Allen get 1400 yards?  Sure, but it's not likely.  It's hard for me to put too much faith in a guy that has never played a full season in 4 years.  I like him but not as early as some are willing to take him.  Looking at FFC right now in standard I see he's going behind DT in the 4th round and I'd be happy with that.  In PPR he jumps up a full round and is going ahead of DT.

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

In 2015 Allen was only healthy while on an unsustainable pace (while Gates was suspended). The fact remains that he has never topped 1,050 yards in a season and has missed 23 of his team's last 24 games. Easily the worst receiver on that list for standard leagues.  He was not a WR1 in PPG in 2013, 14 or 16, and missed half the season in 2015. 

 

In contrast, DT's WORST season over that same timespan was 1,083 yards. No comparison. 

 

 

 

 

As I said, there is no comparison because he's been injured.  He's obviously an injury risk, and I will move him down if it looks like he's not recovering during camp, but it's kind of unfair to use the fact that he's "never topped 1,050 yards" as a point in an argument when I am granting the fact that he's an injury risk.  He was not a WR1 in 2013 because he was a rookie (who still had over 1000 yards and 8 TDs), had a down year in 2014, was on a ridiculous pace in 2015, and then only played one game in 2016 (in which it looked like he was being used the same way he was in 2015).

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I don't think it's possible for Allen to get the amount of targets he was getting in 2015.  There are just too many other weapons on the team that will get targets as well.  Can Allen get 1400 yards?  Sure, but it's not likely.  It's hard for me to put too much faith in a guy that has never played a full season in 4 years.  I like him but not as early as some are willing to take him.  Looking at FFC right now in standard I see he's going behind DT in the 4th round and I'd be happy with that.  In PPR he jumps up a full round and is going ahead of DT.

 

I like DT > Allen in PPR and Allen > DT in standard. 

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

I like DT > Allen in PPR and Allen > DT in standard. 

 

That's funny because it makes more sense the opposite way.  Maybe going the opposite of the public will work out for you.

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I don't think it's possible for Allen to get the amount of targets he was getting in 2015.  There are just too many other weapons on the team that will get targets as well.  Can Allen get 1400 yards?  Sure, but it's not likely.  It's hard for me to put too much faith in a guy that has never played a full season in 4 years.  I like him but not as early as some are willing to take him.  Looking at FFC right now in standard I see he's going behind DT in the 4th round and I'd be happy with that.  In PPR he jumps up a full round and is going ahead of DT.

 

He shouldn't go ahead of DT in any format unless you get points per games missed. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

That's funny because it makes more sense the opposite way.  Maybe going the opposite of the public will work out for you.

 

Give me the TDs + yards to be had in the Chargers offense this year over those in Denver's offense.  If Allen plays 16 games I feel confident that he'll be a top 12 WR, while I'm not so confident DT will improve on what he did last year (which was top 12 in PPR but lower in standard)

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2 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Give me the TDs + yards to be had in the Chargers offense this year over those in Denver's offense.  If Allen plays 16 games I feel confident that he'll be a top 12 WR, while I'm not so confident DT will improve on what he did last year (which was top 12 in PPR but lower in standard)

 

It's not a bad reason.  Rivers will throw more TDs but he will spread those TDs around more.  Allen could get a lot of yards and TDs but no one knows if he can play a full season.  DT have been one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL and you should expect about 1,100 yards and at least 5 TDs from him and that's not even asking for much since he could do better yet.

 

The difference for me is that we're asking for a lot to happen for Allen to get to that level and with DT we're just expecting more of the same from DT to do it.  There's just a level of safety with DT and I feel that some are just bored with him because of it.  Some prefer the excitement of what Allen can offer.  I remember hopping on that hype train last year with Allen as well because of what he showed in 2015.

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18 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

It's not a bad reason.  Rivers will throw more TDs but he will spread those TDs around more.  Allen could get a lot of yards and TDs but no one knows if he can play a full season.  DT have been one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL and you should expect about 1,100 yards and at least 5 TDs from him and that's not even asking for much since he could do better yet.

 

The difference for me is that we're asking for a lot to happen for Allen to get to that level and with DT we're just expecting more of the same from DT to do it.  There's just a level of safety with DT and I feel that some are just bored with him because of it.  Some prefer the excitement of what Allen can offer.  I remember hopping on that hype train last year with Allen as well because of what he showed in 2015.

 

Yeah it's still really early so my ranks aren't set in stone yet.  It's not like DT is monopolizing all the targets in Denver either, he has to fight with Sanders over a very small pie of available yards and TDs.

 

Maybe McCoy will help the offense more than i think but that was what Kubiak was supposed to do last year, where he finally had the chance to run his entire offensive scheme which features the X receiver heavily, and DT struggled then.  I just don't see much room for DT to improve on last years numbers (as opposed to the guys I have in front of him) and I'd rather take a shot on a guy who I think can be elite, even if it comes with more risk, because it's harder to find those guys in the later rounds.

 

All in all, I feel really uncomfortable with any of those WRs after the top 12 in round 3.

 

As to the point about asking a lot out of Allen, the only thing he needs to do to finish as a WR1 is stay healthy (which could be asking a lot of him).

Edited by Chwf3rd
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2 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Yeah it's still really early so my ranks aren't set in stone yet.  It's not like DT is monopolizing all the targets in Denver either, he has to fight with Sanders over a very small pie of available yards and TDs.

 

Maybe McCoy will help the offense more than i think but that was what Kubiak was supposed to do last year, where he finally had the chance to run his entire offensive scheme which features the X receiver heavily, and DT struggled then.  I just don't see much room for DT to improve on last years numbers (as opposed to the guys I have in front of him) and I'd rather take a shot on a guy who I think can be elite, even if it comes with more risk, because it's harder to find those guys in the later rounds.

 

All in all, I feel really uncomfortable with any of those WRs after the top 12 in round 3.

 

Once again I'm going to mention consistency.  Every year DT and Sanders have played together they have both gone over 1,000 yards and had 5 or more TDs and that's including having Osweiler, Bad Manning, Siemian and Lynch as their QBs.  I don't see any reason to think it would be any different this year.  The difference between DT and any of the other WRs you mention, like Allen, is that DT has proved he can do it.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Once again I'm going to mention consistency.  Every year DT and Sanders have played together they have both gone over 1,000 yards and had 5 or more TDs and that's including having Osweiler, Bad Manning, Siemian and Lynch as their QBs.  I don't see any reason to think it would be any different this year.  The difference between DT and any of the other WRs you mention, like Allen, is that DT has proved he can do it.

 

Exactly, I don't think it'll be any different than last year, that's my entire point about DT.

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