Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Last season he was injured, the season before, he had a carousel of QBs.. 

Dez skill set never diminished and he was dominant when Romo was at the helm. 

 

This argument sounds exactly the same as what was used against DT.  Earlier it was said that DT was only really good when Manning was there playing well and his he's not as good with poor QB play like last year.

 

I don't see what makes Dez so much better than DT.  I know Dez is good but what makes him better?

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 629
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

No he isn't. DT has been better than him for the last 5 seasons. 

 

Dez hasn't even finished as a top-30 WR since Knowshon Moreno was in the league. 

 

 

I disagree and so does Dez's ADP for the past 5 years. Dez has been injured and DT has been healthier. DT should have put up better numbers since DEZ was on the sidelines.

I will still draft Dez before DT, I couldn't care less about EOS stats. 

Give me game by game analysis...

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

 

This argument sounds exactly the same as what was used against DT.  Earlier it was said that DT was only really good when Manning was there playing well and his he's not as good with poor QB play like last year.

 

I don't see what makes Dez so much better than DT.  I know Dez is good but what makes him better?

I just explained to you in the earlier post that Dez has a better QB than DT...

Who is better? Dak or Siemian? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I just explained to you in the earlier post that Dez has a better QB than DT...

Who is better? Dak or Siemian? 

 

Based strictly off of last year I'd go with Dak but since it was just one year I don't know for sure.  Dak looked great but hopefully that season wasn't just a fluke.  Dez played with Dak last year and his stats really weren't all that impressive.  What makes you think it will be so much better this year that he's worth his draft position?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

This argument sounds exactly the same as what was used against DT.  Earlier it was said that DT was only really good when Manning was there playing well and his he's not as good with poor QB play like last year.

 

I don't see what makes Dez so much better than DT.  I know Dez is good but what makes him better?

 

Here are Dez's advantages over DT:

 

1. Dez is more of a redzone target and thus has both a higher TD floor + ceiling

 

2. Dak > Siemien/Lynch

 

3. Dez is pretty much the only game in town in Dallas while DT splits targets almost equally with Sanders (144 vs 137)

 

4. Dez is playing in a better offense

 

5. Dez began to show a strong rapport with Dak.  If you take out the Week 17 game against Philly (where Dallas rested it's starters for essentially the entire game) and replaced it with the playoff game, Dez's stat line over 16 games would have been this: 1142/12. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Here are Dez's advantages over DT:

 

1. Dez is more of a redzone target and thus has both a higher TD floor + ceiling

 

2. Dak > Siemien/Lynch

 

3. Dez is pretty much the only game in town in Dallas while DT splits targets almost equally with Sanders (144 vs 137)

 

4. Dez is playing in a better offense

 

5. Dez began to show a strong rapport with Dak.  If you take out the Week 17 game against Philly (where Dallas rested it's starters for essentially the entire game) and replaced it with the playoff game, Dez's stat line over 16 games would have been this: 1142/12. 

 

That was actually the first time I've extrapolated Dez's stats out for last year, I'll probably move him up a little now in my ranks.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just keep in mind that using stats from last season won't be particularly helpful for DTs 2017.   Brand new coaches,  schemes, not hurt, and not playing with what amounts to a couple rookie qbs.   

 

1100/7 is a reasonable floor

1250/12 is very possible

 

i like DT and Dez about the same in standard fwiw.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Just keep in mind that using stats from last season won't be particularly helpful for DTs 2017.   Brand new coaches,  schemes, not hurt, and not playing with what amounts to a couple rookie qbs.   

 

1100/7 is a reasonable floor

1250/12 is very possible

 

i like DT and Dez about the same in standard fwiw.  

 

Ehh those aren't that many changes to me, plus Kubiak's scheme should have been very beneficial to DT last year, even more so than McCoy's in theory.  I don't know that much about the hip injury so I can't really comment on how much that slowed him down.

 

DT is still heading into his age 30 season with the same set of subpar QBs.  1100/7 as a floor seems VERY generous to me given that he just went 1000/5 last year.

 

 If DT gets 1175/10 lets say, than Emmanuel Sanders would need to be projected for similar numbers given their almost equal number of targets, so lets say that Sanders goes 1075/8 (which is pessimistic given that Sanders had the same amount of TDs and only 50 less yards than DT last year).   Given that DT and Sanders accounted for 50% of Denver's passing TDs and 54% of Denver's passing yards, those projections would require that the the Siemien/Lynch combo goes for 4,167/36!!  The yardage isn't completely unreasonable but the TD projection is.

 

Sooooo, for that projection to make any kind of sense you need to assume that not only will Siemien/Lynch significantly improve but also that DT will suddenly hog all of the targets in Denver.

 

For reference, the last time McCoy was the offensive coordinator in Denver (2012), DT only had 16 more targets than Eric Decker.

Edited by Chwf3rd
Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Ehh those aren't that many changes to me, plus Kubiak's scheme should have been very beneficial to DT last year, even more so than McCoy's in theory.  I don't know that much about the hip injury so I can't really comment on how much that slowed him down.

 

DT is still heading into his age 30 season with the same set of subpar QBs.  1100/7 as a floor seems VERY generous to me given that he just went 1000/5 last year.

 

 If DT gets 1175/10 lets say, than Emmanuel Sanders would need to be projected for similar numbers given their almost equal number of targets, so lets say that Sanders goes 1075/8 (which is pessimistic given that Sanders had the same amount of TDs and only 50 less yards than DT last year).   Given that DT and Sanders accounted for 50% of Denver's passing TDs and 54% of Denver's passing yards, those projections would require that the the Siemien/Lynch combo goes for 4,167/36!!  The yardage isn't completely unreasonable but the TD projection is.

 

Sooooo, for that projection to make any kind of sense you need to assume that not only will Siemien/Lynch significantly improve but also that DT will suddenly hog all of the targets in Denver.

 

For reference, the last time McCoy was the offensive coordinator in Denver (2012), DT only had 16 more targets than Eric Decker.

 

Its not a difficult projection at all considering DT and Sanders are the only game in town.     Here's a fun challenge- name the third wr and his production last year....

 

what changes?

Carlos Henderson-  rookie.   Handful of targets only

Latimer-  may not make team

Fowler- may not make team

all the rest are ST guys

Butt- ACL recovery/rookie

V Green- blocking role/ few targets

Heueirman-  few targets if he makes team

Handful of targets to backs

 

25-35 passing attempts in a game- sometimes more.    Maybe 10 go to guys other than DT/Sanders?   

Make plays and not be hurt- that's all DT has to do.   There's not a snowballs chance in hell Mccoys offense is less productive than Kubiaks 2016 with a dismal line and 2 rookies.   Lol.   That's silly talk.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

The difference for me is that we're asking for a lot to happen for Allen to get to that level and with DT we're just expecting more of the same from DT to do it.  There's just a level of safety with DT and I feel that some are just bored with him because of it.  Some prefer the excitement of what Allen can offer.  I remember hopping on that hype train last year with Allen as well because of what he showed in 2015.

 

It sounds like you might be new to fantasy football bud, and if not new to FF then definitely new to talking about FF.

 

It's not about making the safe pick and drafting Demaryius Thomas, anyone can draft a stud like Demaryius Thomas, that's what a child does.  Alright, But a thinking man wants to figure out who the NEXT Demaryius Thomas is.

 

youtu.be/ddCXeJdgsvA?t=88

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Its not a difficult projection at all considering DT and Sanders are the only game in town.     Here's a fun challenge- name the third wr and his production last year....

 

what changes?

Carlos Henderson-  rookie.   Handful of targets only

Latimer-  may not make team

Fowler- may not make team

all the rest are ST guys

Butt- ACL recovery/rookie

V Green- blocking role/ few targets

Heueirman-  few targets if he makes team

Handful of targets to backs

 

25-35 passing attempts in a game- sometimes more.    Maybe 10 go to guys other than DT/Sanders?   

Make plays and not be hurt- that's all DT has to do.   There's not a snowballs chance in hell Mccoys offense is less productive than Kubiaks 2016 with a dismal line and 2 rookies.   Lol.   That's silly talk.  

 

You still haven't answered the passing TD projection issue.  If you're projecting DT for 10 TDs then you need to project Siemian/Lynch for 36 TDs, unless you think the targets are going to suddenly be funneled to DT to the severe detriment of Sanders.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

It sounds like you might be new to fantasy football bud, and if not new to FF then definitely new to talking about FF.

 

It's not about making the safe pick and drafting Demaryius Thomas, anyone can draft a stud like Demaryius Thomas, that's what a child does.  Alright, But a thinking man wants to figure out who the NEXT Demaryius Thomas is.

 

youtu.be/ddCXeJdgsvA?t=88

 

Not new at all to fantasy football or to the forum. In the early rounds I'm more for minimizing risk. Around the 4th round and later I'm all about finding that guy who could be the next big thing. 

 

I dont think my logic logic is all that crazy. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

You still haven't answered the passing TD projection issue.  If you're projecting DT for 10 TDs then you need to project Siemian/Lynch for 36 TDs, unless you think the targets are going to suddenly be funneled to DT to the severe detriment of Sanders.

 

You raise a very good point but it's also possible that DT and Sanders just take away TDs from the other scrubs on the offense. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Not new at all to fantasy football or to the forum. In the early rounds I'm more for minimizing risk. Around the 4th round and later I'm all about finding that guy who could be the next big thing. 

 

I dont think my logic logic is all that crazy. 

 

It was sarcasm.  I've seen you many times and interacted with you many times over the years.  I guess you didn't click the YouTube link.  I have it set to go right to the quote that I was quoting.

 

How do you do the YouTube preview and make it show it again inside of roto instead of just the link?  I always forget.  Don't I have to change the link name somehow or something?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

It was sarcasm.  I've seen you many times and interacted with you many times over the years.  I guess you didn't click the YouTube link.  I have it set to go right to the quote that I was quoting.

 

How do you do the YouTube preview and make it show it again inside of roto instead of just the link?  I always forget.  Don't I have to change the link name somehow or something?

Oh, sorry about that. I'm just on my phone now so didn't click the link. 

 

As for having it showing up in the post I believe you need to copy the imbedded link and paste it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Oh, sorry about that. I'm just on my phone now so didn't click the link. 

 

As for having it showing up in the post I believe you need to copy the imbedded link and paste it. 

 

Testing this out...

 

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ddCXeJdgsvA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Forget it.  I suck.  I tried searching how to do it, but the search is quite difficult on this forum.  I'm sure I've asked how to do this in the past as well.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

 

You raise a very good point but it's also possible that DT and Sanders just take away TDs from the other scrubs on the offense. 

 

Denver had the same ancillary weapons last season and DT and Sanders accounted for 50% of the TDs and 54% of the yards, numbers that are already very high.

 

Putting up WR1 numbers with a bad QB requires that that player dominates the targets, here are some examples (I dont feel like spending the time defining what exactly a "bad offense" is so i'm just going to do it anecdotally):

 

2016 - none of the top 12 WRs played on bad offenses.

 

2015

 

2. Julio Jones was WR2 with Matt Ryan only throwing for 4500/21 but it goes without saying that he dominated the targets

6. Deandre Hopkins dominated the targets

 

The best example this year would have been Brandon Marshall (WR3) and Eric Decker(WR10).  But Fitzmagik threw for 31 TDs that year so you would need to expect a similar number from Siemian/Lynch.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Testing this out...

 

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ddCXeJdgsvA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Forget it.  I suck.  I tried searching how to do it, but the search is quite difficult on this forum.  I'm sure I've asked how to do this in the past as well.

When you have the video up in your browser just copy the link and paste it into the text body. Video should pop up in the window immediately. If it doesn't maybe try a different browser? I'm using Chrome. 

Edited by pikerbkb
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

This argument sounds exactly the same as what was used against DT.  Earlier it was said that DT was only really good when Manning was there playing well and his he's not as good with poor QB play like last year.

 

I don't see what makes Dez so much better than DT.  I know Dez is good but what makes him better?

Dez is more physical and athletic; if the ball is in Dez's vicinity, 9 times out of 10 he comes down with the ball. He's not afraid to take hits.

I like the competitor and fight in him.

Dez has better hands and ball skills..His ball skills allows the cowboys to throw back shoulder fades when he's near the end zone.

Dez has pretty much mastered that move. 

Dez is surrounded by a better offense.

Dez during clutch times, he steps up to the challenge; unlike DT, he withers like a snowflake(Super Bowls vs Seattle and Carolina). You can easily bully DT but not Dez.

The greatest attributes DT has over Dez are YAC and explosiveness. 

Both players are really close, 1a and 1b close but I'd give Dez the edge because of what I've listed above.

If both players were on an even playing field as far as better offense, I'd still take Dez. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Dez is more physical and athletic; if the ball is in Dez's vicinity, 9 times out of 10 he comes down with the ball. He's not afraid to take hits.

I like the competitor and fight in him.

Dez has better hands and ball skills..His ball skills allows the cowboys to throw back shoulder fades when he's near the end zone.

Dez has pretty much mastered that move. 

Dez is surrounded by a better offense.

Dez during clutch times, he steps up to the challenge; unlike DT, he withers like a snowflake(Super Bowls vs Seattle and Carolina). You can easily bully DT but not Dez.

The greatest attributes DT has over Dez are YAC and explosiveness. 

Both players are really close, 1a and 1b close but I'd give Dez the edge because of what I've listed above.

If both players were on an even playing field as far as better offense, I'd still take Dez. 

 

 

 

why are people comparing Dez and DT anyway .....there is almost a full two round difference between both of them. I'll take DT in the early 4th late 3rd (standard) over Dez in the 2nd right now. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

why are people comparing Dez and DT anyway .....there is almost a full two round difference between both of them. I'll take DT in the early 4th late 3rd (standard) over Dez in the 2nd right now. 

 

The reason I brought it up is because I was trying to figure out what makes Dez worth taking so early.  I kept seeing people say that he's a WR1 and being drafted as one and that DT is not.  Some are saying they'd rather take Dez at his draft position than take DT at his and I disagree.  I feel DT offers better value at his draft position and Dez is much riskier at his position.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

The reason I brought it up is because I was trying to figure out what makes Dez worth taking so early.  I kept seeing people say that he's a WR1 and being drafted as one and that DT is not.  Some are saying they'd rather take Dez at his draft position than take DT at his and I disagree.  I feel DT offers better value at his draft position and Dez is much riskier at his position.

 

Absolutely. DT > Dez even if their draft positions were similar. At their current ADPs it's a no-brainer. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

why are people comparing Dez and DT anyway .....there is almost a full two round difference between both of them. I'll take DT in the early 4th late 3rd (standard) over Dez in the 2nd right now. 

In your scenario, of course DT would be the better value ADP, so it's a no brainer to go with DT.

I was speaking of each players skill set on why I would choose one over the other. I was asked the question and I provided my response.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

The reason I brought it up is because I was trying to figure out what makes Dez worth taking so early.  I kept seeing people say that he's a WR1 and being drafted as one and that DT is not.  Some are saying they'd rather take Dez at his draft position than take DT at his and I disagree.  I feel DT offers better value at his draft position and Dez is much riskier at his position.

Another reason I shy away from Dez is he's almost too physical a player to trust to stay healthy. In contrast to DT, he seeks out contact and is absolutely reckless going for a catch, which I love to watch, but over time his health will become more of an issue. He will be 29 by the end of this year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook
  • phatrat locked this topic
  • phatrat unlocked this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...