Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Also, I'm not sure what you mean in the section I bolded from your post.  Not sure how Cooper's career averages are a floor?  Some people have a tendency when projecting to assume best case scenario and give bumps in production to basically every player.  Some players take steps back just due to natural ebb and flow, or changes to their situations.  I expect Carr to stay healthy so I think Cooper bumps, but just a little.  Again I expect the Denver offense to improve, so I think DT bumps, just a little.

I guess what I am trying to say is that I'm thinking that this upcoming year will start Cooper's string of the best years in his WR career whereas I believe DT's career year(s) already occurred from 2012 to 2014 (with Peyton Manning).  Coincidently to our discussions DT's best years started in his 3rd year, however I think that probably had more to do with Peyton Manning's arrival into Mile High than the 3rd year jump I'm predicting for Cooper.  Cooper's career averages are a floor to me because I think he is still learning to become the best NFL WR that he can become and I don't see anything holding him back except his own desire, talent and / or of course an injury.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 629
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

1 hour ago, Elwood333 said:

I guess what I am trying to say is that I'm thinking that this upcoming year will start Cooper's string of the best years in his WR career whereas I believe DT's career year(s) already occurred from 2012 to 2014 (with Peyton Manning).  Coincidently to our discussions DT's best years started in his 3rd year, however I think that probably had more to do with Peyton Manning's arrival into Mile High than the 3rd year jump I'm predicting for Cooper.  Cooper's career averages are a floor to me because I think he is still learning to become the best NFL WR that he can become and I don't see anything holding him back except his own desire, talent and / or of course an injury.

Since you are always so generous with your time posting detailed thoughts- I will return the favor.  

 

Your position is a fair one.  I'd take Cooper before DT too- but it won't be a big margin.   if I can get 2 rbs in the top 2 tiers and still land DT or Adams on the next go around-  that to me is a better use of draft capital.

 

The thing you are a bit off on is assuming that DTs success was primarily a function of PFM.   Not true.  Manning elevated him to top 5, but that was because DT is so talented already.   He's makes his living on short and medium routes because of a combination of physical domination against press technique and blazing speed in space.   A hip injury and the lack of creativity in the Kubiak/Dennison system sapped much of that the last season and a half but he's now 100%.  Still had over 1000 yards and justified his adp.   Any decline because of age is merely conjecture by those who haven't seen him practice in the last few months.  

 

Combine all that with a return of the coordinator that knows how to use him and he's fire waiting to happen.   You don't need a qb who can thread a needle or blast a ball 60 yards downfield with perfect placement for DT to shine.   

 

With a 3rd/4th round ADP-  id take him everywhere u can get him.   

 

Edited by Impreza178
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Your position is a fair one.  I'd take Cooper before DT too- but it won't be a big margin.   if I can get 2 rbs in the top 2 tiers and still land DT or Adams on the next go around-  that to me is a better use of draft capital.

 

100% agree.  There are only 12 to 15 good RB choices and there are 30 to 40 good WR choices.  If you can lock in 2 top RBs in the first 3 rounds there will be plenty of WRs to choose from later.  If that is the point I have been missing then I am now on board.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/31/2017 at 4:06 PM, TX Babe Ruth said:

 

DT has never been on any one of my championship teams since playing ff(2011).

 

Welp. That's it people DT sucks bc this guy can't win a championship with him lol.

 

ive won a championship team with DT so your argument is invalid 

Link to post
Share on other sites

5 straight 1000 yard, 90+ catch seasons. Now he's reunited with Mike McCoy this year. 

 

Fantasy football is all about minimizing risk. Other than maybe AB and Odell, is there a safer WR in the NFL?

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

5 straight 1000 yard, 90+ catch seasons. Now he's reunited with Mike McCoy this year. 

 

Fantasy football is all about minimizing risk. Other than maybe AB and Odell, is there a safer WR in the NFL?

 

^Came to post this.

 

Drops Thomas can be an infuriating real-life player, but the volume stats always work out in the end. He's put up 1000 each of the last two years, even with a 7th round sophomore, Brock Osweiler, and the corpse of PFM at QB. His upside is capped in Denver's offense, but he has a rock-solid floor.

 

If I can go RB-RB to start the draft, then get say Adams and Thomas as my WRs, it's going to be all smiles.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a quote from Emanuel Sanders recently, but it bears on DT as well (IMO):

 

“We’ve got this new offense with Mike McCoy. We’re going to be throwing the ball around so my conditioning has to be up and I’ve been working on that.’’

 

Of course, you need a QB to execute a scheme, but all the chatter so far is that DT and ES expect more activity than last season.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

This is a quote from Emanuel Sanders recently, but it bears on DT as well (IMO):

 

“We’ve got this new offense with Mike McCoy. We’re going to be throwing the ball around so my conditioning has to be up and I’ve been working on that.’’

 

Of course, you need a QB to execute a scheme, but all the chatter so far is that DT and ES expect more activity than last season.   

 

Makes Charles even more enticing, if true, and if his knees are right.

 

If, if, if, I know.  But an 11th round price is little enough to pay to find out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Makes Charles even more enticing, if true, and if his knees are right.

 

If, if, if, I know.  But an 11th round price is little enough to pay to find out.

Digging for gold....

hope u used a metal detector 

 

how long will you burn a bench spot waiting?   Guess we'll find out 

 

Edited by Impreza178
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

how long will you burn a bench spot waiting?   Guess we'll find out 

 

For that upside he's worth watching for a couple weeks to see if he's a significant part of their plans.

 

Then I'll drop him, then CJA will get hurt, then Charles'll take on a bigger role and I'll be kicking myself.

 

For the insane amount of talent, an 11th isn't much to burn to learn.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As more information on the Broncos is coming out, I'm definitely targeting Thomas as a WR2 with WR1 upside.  His floor is 90-1100 & almost guaranteed to improve on his 5 TD season in 2016. With McCoy back running the offense & his love of the passing game, Thomas could very well end up as a top 10 WR this year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, lvsaint429 said:

As more information on the Broncos is coming out, I'm definitely targeting Thomas as a WR2 with WR1 upside.  His floor is 90-1100 & almost guaranteed to improve on his 5 TD season in 2016. With McCoy back running the offense & his love of the passing game, Thomas could very well end up as a top 10 WR this year.

 

I'm starting to see more and more people mentioning DT and I don't like it.  I'm hoping he stays undervalued. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I'm starting to see more and more people mentioning DT and I don't like it.  I'm hoping he stays undervalued. 

Agreed, but we know Brown, Beckham, Jones, Evans, Nelson, Green, Hilton, & Bryant will all go before him (or more $ in an auction).  He's in a group of MThomas, Cooks, Cooper, Baldwin, Hopkins, & Adams.  That puts him on the top 10 WR border already, solidly in 3rd round or higher

 

Edit:  FWIW, I've seen Thomas ranked #15 & #19 in 2 magazines, #12 in ESPN consensus

Edited by lvsaint429
Link to post
Share on other sites

In standard and PPR mocks on FFC he's been going at the beginning of the 4th round which is great but I have seen a slight increase over the weeks.  I'm in a slow mock draft on another fantasy forum and DT just went at the 3.03 pick.  I was sure I'd be able to get him with my 3.10 pick but no luck for me.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

In standard and PPR mocks on FFC he's been going at the beginning of the 4th round which is great but I have seen a slight increase over the weeks.  I'm in a slow mock draft on another fantasy forum and DT just went at the 3.03 pick.  I was sure I'd be able to get him with my 3.10 pick but no luck for me.

I'm in 2 .5 PPR auctions ($150 & $200) and fully expecting to pay around $25 & $35

Edited by lvsaint429
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

I'm in 2 auctions ($150 & $200) and fully expecting to pay around $25 & $35

 

My league uses $100 but we only use that to buy 10 players so our prices are very different.  I seem to grab DT a lot in this league over the years.  Two years ago I paid $25 for him.  Last year I got him for $14 and he was my WR4, I was loaded at WR last year.

Edited by Hawkeye21
Link to post
Share on other sites

The news on Denver running a fast paced offense is intriguing but hard to believe with these two young QBs and top D. The good thing is all the volume is going to go through two guys. No legit TE or WR3. Considering their production likely to be nearly identical I'll still take the 2 rd discount for Sanders. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/11/2017 at 0:04 AM, Panthers8912 said:

Welp. That's it people DT sucks bc this guy can't win a championship with him lol.

 

ive won a championship team with DT so your argument is invalid 

If you are going to quote me, at least comprehend what you quote. I never said, DT sucks, and why wouldn't I draft guys that will help me win?  Unless, you play fantasy to lose?

It's not rocket science, just common sense.

 

For the record, I'm a woman, not a 'guy'...oops, wrong again.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

If you are going to quote me, at least comprehend what you quote. I never said, DT sucks, and why wouldn't I draft guys that will help me win?  Unless, you play fantasy to lose?

It's not rocket science, just common sense.

 

For the record, I'm a woman, not a 'guy'...oops, wrong again.

 

 

C'mon, you made a dumb statement, and he called you out on it.  Just move along instead of bringing more attention to it, haha.

 

I'll bite on DT in the third round, as the upside is there, but I don't feel there's a firm floor on his value.  That offense is still shaky and run under a questionable QB (whoever that may be).

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

C'mon, you made a dumb statement, and he called you out on it.  Just move along instead of bringing more attention to it, haha.

 

I'll bite on DT in the third round, as the upside is there, but I don't feel there's a firm floor on his value.  That offense is still shaky and run under a questionable QB (whoever that may be).

I'd argue the exact opposite.  5 straight 1000 yard seasons with a changing cast of o-line and qb is no accident.  You get a rock solid floor with DT and more upside than he's had since PM.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I'd argue the exact opposite.  5 straight 1000 yard seasons with a changing cast of o-line and qb is no accident.  You get a rock solid floor with DT and more upside than he's had since PM.  

 

I agree.  There really isn't anything I see to support anyone's argument that he will have a low floor this year.  His floor is what he did last year and his ceiling is a bit higher so basically he's a pretty safe pick.

 

This is the range I see DT finishing this year.  Low end WR15 and high end WR5.

Edited by Hawkeye21
Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I'd argue the exact opposite.  5 straight 1000 yard seasons with a changing cast of o-line and qb is no accident.  You get a rock solid floor with DT and more upside than he's had since PM.  

 

I dunno.  I think there was a clearer picture as to who their starting QB was last year, than this year.  You have 2 QB's who have been splitting first team reps all offseason, and you have a new OC in town (at least for these QB's).  Add that to the fact that he's been trending in the wrong direction the last 2 years, and I don't think his floor is as certain as it has been.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

I dunno.  I think there was a clearer picture as to who their starting QB was last year, than this year.  You have 2 QB's who have been splitting first team reps all offseason, and you have a new OC in town (at least for these QB's).  Add that to the fact that he's been trending in the wrong direction the last 2 years, and I don't think his floor is as certain as it has been.  

More certainty at qb?  

It was Mark Sanchez until he kept throwing ghastly picks in preseason...

dt was hurt

the line was utter garbage

siemian was essentially a rookie.  

The dennison offense was stagnant

 

there were very few reasons to expect DT to justify his adp...and yet....

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

More certainty at qb?  

It was Mark Sanchez until he kept throwing ghastly picks in preseason...

dt was hurt

the line was utter garbage

siemian was essentially a rookie.  

The dennison offense was stagnant

 

there were very few reasons to expect DT to justify his adp...and yet....

 

 

It was never going to be the Mark Sanchez show, all 3 of their QB's competed for the starting job in the offseason, and all 3 got preseason starts.  I'm of the opinion that he was a pawn piece for the 2 first preseason starts, as the CS let the rookie and season starter get their feet wet in the last 2 preseason games to limit injury risk.  Sanchez was released the week before the season started.  Now you have 2 (and i may be projecting here) equally skilled QB's competing for the job, with one being last years investment, and the other being last years starter.  This offense should be a little more balanced this year with CJ Anderson back, and Jamaal Charles possibly providing a nice 3rd down role.  These should both take away from DT's target share IMO.  He saw a sharp increase in targets immediately following the game in which CJA went down, as they didn't have a solid run game and DT was getting a lot of check downs.  Evidenced by his lowest YPR of his career.  Like I said, i'm unwavering in my opinion that DT's floor is as shaky as it's ever been, but if you can get him in the late 3rd/4th, you should be getting a nice return.  2nd round?  Big no thanks.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook
  • phatrat locked this topic
  • phatrat unlocked this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...